Differentiated impact of the global crisis:
The report analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term development prospects, covering the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Europe including Turkey, together with Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and China. Separate chapters present an overview of developments in...
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | German |
| Published: |
Wien
Verein "Wiener Inst. für Internat. Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (WIIW)
2009
|
| Series: | WIIW current analyses and forecasts
3 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Summary: | The report analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term development prospects, covering the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Europe including Turkey, together with Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and China. Separate chapters present an overview of developments in the European Union's New Member States and in Southeast European countries, or deal with the global economic environment and the role of the energy sector. |
| Item Description: | Literaturverz. S. 5 |
| Physical Description: | XI, 126 S. graph. Darst. |
Staff View
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Titel: Differentiated impact of the global crisis
Autor: Gligorov, Vladimir
Jahr: 2009
Contents
Executive summary i
Special topic: The global crisis and growth strategy
Introduction 1
A causal story 1
Growth prospects 3
Strategic shifts 4
Conclusion 5
References 5
^^JzjmSt The new EU member states
"9 .««.'.
NMS sliding down the slippery slope 6
Introduction: The need for a new development strategy 6
GDP growth decelerates or even turns negative 6
Output declines rapidly, delayed labour market adjustment 9
Deflation curbed by depreciation 11
Falling external demand 14
External financing as a lasting barrier to growth 15
Public policies to mitigate the crisis 20
Country reports
Bulgaria: coping with multiple external shocks 24
The Czech Republic: approaching standstill 28
Hungary: the home-made and the imported crisis 32
Poland: a slowdown in the making 36
Romania: on the verge of recession 40
Slovakia: after three-year boom, settling down to moderate growth 43
Slovenia: stimulus package to mitigate economic hardship 47
Baltic States: an imbalanced growth model in tatters 50
^^sjig^v- Overview Southeast Europe
Shifting from the expansion to the contraction mode 57
Patterns revealed by the most recent data 57
The countries' capacity to withstand the current challenges 63
The likely development scenario over the next few years 68
Country reports
Albania: the one-eyed king 71
Bosnia and Herzegovina: landing in the fog 74
Croatia: meeting financial obligations - a major challenge 78
Macedonia: relying on fiscal stimulus 81
Montenegro: banking problems 84
Serbia: risking instability 86
Turkey: a robust, but recessive economy 89
mHH^HI Selected Newly Independent States (NIS) and China
Country reports
Russia: economy hit by global turmoil 94
Ukraine: in the midst of economic meltdown 96
Kazakhstan: avoiding recession and prolonging recovery 103
China: travelling down a bumpy road 106
Special topic: The global financial crisis, oil prices
and the economies of Central and Eastern Europe 111
Appendix: Selected indicators of competitiveness 114
Tables and Figures
Summary
Table I Overview developments 2007-2008 and outlook 2009-2011 ix
Table II Central and East European new EU member states (NMS-10):
an overview of economic fundamentals, 2008 x
Table III Southeast Europe: an overview of economic fundamentals, 2008 xi
The new EU member states
Table 1 Gross domestic product, real change in % against preceding year 8
Table 2 Foreign trade of the new EU member states (based on customs statistics) 13
Table 3 Foreign financial position, in % of GDP 15
Table 4 Net capital flows, EUR million 18
Table 5 Foreign direct investment to New EU Member States 19
Table 6 Fiscal balance in % of GDP 22
Figure 1 Quarterly GDP, 2005-2009, real change in % against preceding year 7
Figure 2 Gross industrial production, 2006-2008, 3-month moving average 9
Figure 3 Employment rate, unemployment rate 2005-2008. Quarterly, 1q 2005 = 100 10
Figure 4 Consumer price inflation, 2006-2009, year-on-year growth in % 12
Figure 5 Nominal exchange rates, 2006-2008, EUR per NCU, monthly average,
January 2006 = 100 12
Figure 6 Exports 2006-2008, EUR based, January 2006 = 100 14
Figure 7 Imports 2006-2008, EUR based, January 2006 = 100 15
Figure 8 Composition of the current account 2007-2008, EUR million 16
Figure 9 Leading NB-interest rates, 2006-2008, real (CPI deflated), in % p.a 21
The countries of Southeast Europe
Table 1 Nominal stability indicators, 2008, change in % against preceding year 64
Table 2 Components of the Balance of Payments (BOP) 66
Table 3 General government budget and public debt, in % of GDP, 2008 67
Table 4 Consumption of households, real change in % against preceding year 69
Table 5 Gross fixed capital formation, real change in % against preceding year 70
Table 6 Employment and unemployment, LFS definition, annual averages, 2008 70
Figure 1 Gross industrial production, 2008,2007 = 100 57
Figure 2 Foreign trade, 2008, EUR million 58
Figure 3 Consumer prices, 2008 59
Figure 4 Exchange rates, 2007-2008, EURperNCU, Jan 2007 = 100 59
Figure 5 Wages and unit labour costs in industry, 2007-2008, in EUR, Jan 2007 = 100 61
Figure 6 Money M1, 2008, year-on-year in % 62
Figure 7 GDP, 2008-2009, real change in % against preceding year 62
Special topic: The global financial crisis, oil prices and the economies of Central
and Eastern Europe
Table 1 Dependence on oil in Eastern Europe and the impact of lower oil prices on current
accounts in the region 112
Country reports
Table BG Bulgaria: Selected Economic Indicators 27
Table CZ Czech Republic: Selected Economic Indicators 31
Table HU Hungary: Selected Economic Indicators 35
Table PL Poland: Selected Economic Indicators 39
Table RO Romania: Selected Economic Indicators 42
Table SK Slovak Republic: Selected Economic Indicators 46
Table SI Slovenia: Selected Economic Indicators 49
Table EE Estonia: Selected Economic Indicators 54
Table LV Latvia: Selected Economic Indicators 55
Table LT Lithuania: Selected Economic Indicators 56
Table AL Albania: Selected Economic Indicators 73
Table BA Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Economic Indicators 77
Table HR Croatia: Selected Economic Indicators 80
Table MK Macedonia: Selected Economic Indicators 83
Table ME Montenegro: Selected Economic Indicators 85
Table RS Serbia: Selected Economic Indicators 88
Table TR Republic of Turkey: Selected Economic Indicators 93
Table RU Russia: Selected Economic Indicators 97
Table UA Ukraine: Selected Economic Indicators 102
Table KZ Kazakhstan: Selected Economic Indicators 105
Table CN China: Selected Economic Indicators 110
Appendix
Table A/1 GDP per capita at current PPPs (EUR), from 2008 at constant PPPs 115
Table A/2 Indicators of macro-competitiveness, 2000-2008, EUR based, annual averages 116
Table A/3 Indicators of macro-competitiveness, 2001-2008, annual changes in % 123
The authors of this report wish to thank Boriana Assenova, Nadja Heger, Beate
Muck, Renate Prasch, Hana Ruskova, Monika Schwarzhappel and Barbara
Swierczek (all wiiw) for statistical assistance. |
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| era_facet | Prognose |
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| geographic | Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd Kasachstan (DE-588)4029839-5 gnd Südosteuropa (DE-588)4058449-5 gnd China (DE-588)4009937-4 gnd Türkei (DE-588)4061163-2 gnd Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 gnd Rumänien (DE-588)4050939-4 gnd Bulgarien (DE-588)4008866-2 gnd Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Osteuropa Kasachstan Südosteuropa China Türkei Ukraine Rumänien Bulgarien Russland |
| id | DE-604.BV035394206 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-01-02T11:26:13Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | German |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-017314949 |
| oclc_num | 551862222 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR |
| physical | XI, 126 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | Verein "Wiener Inst. für Internat. Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (WIIW) |
| record_format | marc |
| series | WIIW current analyses and forecasts |
| series2 | WIIW current analyses and forecasts |
| spelling | Differentiated impact of the global crisis Vladimir Gligorov ... Wien Verein "Wiener Inst. für Internat. Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (WIIW) 2009 XI, 126 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier WIIW current analyses and forecasts 3 Literaturverz. S. 5 The report analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term development prospects, covering the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Europe including Turkey, together with Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and China. Separate chapters present an overview of developments in the European Union's New Member States and in Southeast European countries, or deal with the global economic environment and the role of the energy sector. Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd rswk-swf Prognose gnd rswk-swf China stw EU-Staaten (Osteuropa) stw GUS-Staaten stw Makroökonomischer Einfluss stw Südosteuropa stw Weltkonjunktur stw Weltwirtschaft stw Wirtschaftskrise stw Wirtschaftswachstum stw Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Mitgliedsstaaten (DE-588)4170174-4 gnd rswk-swf Weltwirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4065471-0 gnd rswk-swf Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd rswk-swf Kasachstan (DE-588)4029839-5 gnd rswk-swf Südosteuropa (DE-588)4058449-5 gnd rswk-swf China (DE-588)4009937-4 gnd rswk-swf Türkei (DE-588)4061163-2 gnd rswk-swf Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 gnd rswk-swf Rumänien (DE-588)4050939-4 gnd rswk-swf Bulgarien (DE-588)4008866-2 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 b Mitgliedsstaaten (DE-588)4170174-4 s Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 g Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s Weltwirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4065471-0 s Rumänien (DE-588)4050939-4 g Bulgarien (DE-588)4008866-2 g Prognose z DE-604 Südosteuropa (DE-588)4058449-5 g Türkei (DE-588)4061163-2 g Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 g Kasachstan (DE-588)4029839-5 g China (DE-588)4009937-4 g Gligorov, Vladimir Sonstige oth WIIW current analyses and forecasts 3 (DE-604)BV042529173 3 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017314949&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Differentiated impact of the global crisis WIIW current analyses and forecasts Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd China stw EU-Staaten (Osteuropa) stw GUS-Staaten stw Makroökonomischer Einfluss stw Südosteuropa stw Weltkonjunktur stw Weltwirtschaft stw Wirtschaftskrise stw Wirtschaftswachstum stw Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Mitgliedsstaaten (DE-588)4170174-4 gnd Weltwirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4065471-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5098525-5 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4170174-4 (DE-588)4065471-0 (DE-588)4075739-0 (DE-588)4029839-5 (DE-588)4058449-5 (DE-588)4009937-4 (DE-588)4061163-2 (DE-588)4061496-7 (DE-588)4050939-4 (DE-588)4008866-2 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Differentiated impact of the global crisis |
| title_auth | Differentiated impact of the global crisis |
| title_exact_search | Differentiated impact of the global crisis |
| title_full | Differentiated impact of the global crisis Vladimir Gligorov ... |
| title_fullStr | Differentiated impact of the global crisis Vladimir Gligorov ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Differentiated impact of the global crisis Vladimir Gligorov ... |
| title_short | Differentiated impact of the global crisis |
| title_sort | differentiated impact of the global crisis |
| topic | Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd China stw EU-Staaten (Osteuropa) stw GUS-Staaten stw Makroökonomischer Einfluss stw Südosteuropa stw Weltkonjunktur stw Weltwirtschaft stw Wirtschaftskrise stw Wirtschaftswachstum stw Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Mitgliedsstaaten (DE-588)4170174-4 gnd Weltwirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4065471-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Europäische Union China EU-Staaten (Osteuropa) GUS-Staaten Makroökonomischer Einfluss Südosteuropa Weltkonjunktur Weltwirtschaft Wirtschaftskrise Wirtschaftswachstum Wirtschaftsentwicklung Mitgliedsstaaten Weltwirtschaftskrise Osteuropa Kasachstan Türkei Ukraine Rumänien Bulgarien Russland |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017314949&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV042529173 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gligorovvladimir differentiatedimpactoftheglobalcrisis |