Expert judgements in financial markets: three empirical studies
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2008
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | 193 S. graph. Darst. 21 cm |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Expert judgements in financial markets
Autor: Kappler, Andreas
Jahr: 2008
Contents
Inboduction
Expertise In Economic Forecasting: Reality or Huston? 13
1.1 Data Description 16
1.2 Definition of Forecaster Characteristics 19
1.3 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades 22
1.4 Time Profile of Average Characteristics 26
1.5 Regression Analysis 28
1.6 Conclusion 31
1.7 References 32
Appendix 1. A Data Appendix 34
Appendix l.B Definition of Variables 36
The Investment Value of Earnings Forecast* 68
2.1 The Sample 70
2.2 An Anatomy of Analyst Forecast Errors 72
2.3 Methods 74
2.4 Results 77
2.4.1. Time-series Perspective of Investment Values 81
2.4.2. Cross-sectional Perspective of Investment Values 82
2.5 Conclusion 85
2.6 References 87
Do False Earnings BeBefs Distort Stock Prices?
Evkience from It* United States. Europe and Japan, 1985-2002 149
3.1 The Mix of True and False Beliefs about Earnings 150
3.2 Regressions of True and False Beliefs 157
3.3 Dynamics of Quarterly Forecast Revisions 159
3.4 Conclusion 160
3.5 References 162
Conclusions m
List of Tables
1.1 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades 42
1.2 Actual Outcome Averages across Decades 43
1.3 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Experts 44
1.4 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Non-Experts 45
1.5 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Bulls 46
1.6 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Bears 47
1.7 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Trend Followers 48
1.8 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Contrarians 49
1.9 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Eccentrics 50
1.10 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Conformists 51
1.11 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Business Economists 52
1.12 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Academics 53
1.13 Average Bias and Accuracy across Decades among Bankers 54
1.14 Differences in Mean Absolute Forecast Errors 55
1.15 Correlation Matrix of Forecasters Score Variables for Six and Twelve-month 56
Forecasts
1.16 Expert Forecasts Are Significantly More Accurate for Different Time Periods 57
2.1 US Sample Is the Largest 88
2.2 Japanese Companies Have Less Analyst Coverage 89
2.3 US Companies Are Larger on Average 90
2.4 US Companies Announce Mostly in February 91
2.5 Optimism Bias across All Regions 91
2.6 Forecast Errors Decrease Linearly with the Forecast Horizon 92
2.7 Earnings Forecasts of Loser Stocks Strongly Overestimated 93
2.8 Value of Knowing Forecast Errors and Earnings in Advance. Part 1 94
2.9 Value of Knowing Forecast Errors and Earnings in Advance, Part 2 95
2.10 Value of Knowing Forecast Errors and Earnings (Quintiles), Part 1 96
2.11 Value of Knowing Forecast Errors and Earnings (Quintiles), Part 2 97
2.12 Investment Values of Knowing Revisions from -18 to z 98
2.13 Investment Values of Knowing Forecasts Three Months Before Announcement 99
2.14 Investment Values of Knowing Forecasts Three Months Before Announcement 100
(Quintiles)
2.15 Investment Values of Knowing Forecasts Six Months before Announcement 101
2.16 More Valuable to Know Earnings for Small Size Stocks in the US 102
2.17 Knowing Earnings of Small Stocks in Europe Matters Most 103
2.18 Size Doesn t Matter in Japan for the Investment Value of Knowing Earnings 104
2.19 High PE more Important for the Value of Earnings in the US 105
2.20 PE Doesn t Matter in Europe for the Value of Knowing Earnings 106
2.21 More Value to Know Earnings in low PE Stocks in Japan 107
2.22 Higher Value of Knowing Earnings in High Momentum Stocks in the US 108
2.23 Momentum Doesn t Matter for the Value of Knowing Earnings in Europe 109
2.24 Momentum Doesn t Matter for the Value of Knowing Earnings in Japan 110
2.25 High Beta Is Preferable for the Value of Knowing Earnings in the US 111
2.26 Beta Doesn t Matter in Europe for the Value of Knowing Earnings 112
2.27 Beta Isn t Important for the Value of Knowing Earnings in Japan 113
2.28 High Residual Risk Stocks Have Higher Value of Knowing Earnings in the US 114
2.29 High Residual Risk Stocks Valuable When you Know Earnings in Europe 115
2.30 Knowing Earnings of High Residual Risk Stocks Is More Valuable in Japan 116
2.31 Dispersion Not Important Driver for the Value of Knowing Earnings in the US 117
2.32 Low Dispersion Stocks Have More Value of Knowing Earnings in Europe 118
2.33 Dispersion Doesn t matter for the Value of Knowing Earnings in Japan 119
2.34 Value of Knowing Earnings for Different Industries in the US, Part 1 120
2.35 Value of Knowing Earnings for Different Industries in the US. Part 2 121
2.36 Value of Knowing Earnings for Different Industries in the US. Part 3 122
2.37 Value of Knowing Earnings for Different Industries in Europe, Part 1 123
2.38 Value of Knowing Earnings for Different Industries in Europe, Part 2 124
2.39 Value of Knowing Earnings for Different Industries in Europe, Part 3 125
2.40 The Value of Knowing Earnings for Industries in Japan 126
2.41 High PE Is Better for the Value of Knowing Revisions in the US 127
2.42 Knowing Earnings Revisions in the US Is More Valuable for High Momentum and 128
High Beta Stocks
2.43 Knowing Revisions in the US Is Most Important for High Residual Risk Stocks 129
2.44 Value of Earnings Forecasts for Different US Industries. Part 1 130
2.45 Value of Earnings Forecasts for Different US industries. Part 2 131
2.46 Knowledge of Revisions Matters Most for Small Stocks in Europe 132
2.47 Momentum and Beta Don t Matter for Knowing Earnings Revisions in Europe 133
2.48 High Residual and Low Dispersion Stocks Are More Valuable for the 134
Foreknowledge of Earnings Revisions in Europe
2.49 Foreknowledge of Revisions Most Valuable for Consumer and Capital Goods 135
Stocks in Europe. Part 1
2.50 Foreknowtedge of Revisions Most Valuable for Consumer and Capital Goods 136
Stocks in Europe, Part 2
2.51 Low PE Stocks More Valuable with the Foreknowledge of Earnings Revisions in 137
Japan
2.52 Momentum and Beta Aren t Important for the Value of Knowing Earnings 138
Revisions in Advance in Japan
2.53 High Residual Risk Stocks Very Important for the Value of Knowing Earnings 139
Revisions in Japan
2.54 Foreknowledge of Earnings Revisions Most Valuable for Capital Good Stocks in 140
Japan
3.1 Three Out of Four US Revisions Are True 163
3.2 240 000 Earnings Revisions across All Three Regions 164
3.3 Extreme US Revisions Are the Smallest ! **
3.4 Trend Continuation Bias in Good and Bad Environment I67
3.5 Hype And Under-Reaction in Good and Bad Environment ^
3.6 Less Truth-telling in Good Environment, More Truth Telling in Bad Environment 169
3.7 Less Truth-telling In Up Revisions in Bad Environment 170
3.8 Do False Beliefs Impact Stock Prices? 171
3.9 Impact of Positive False Beliefs on Stock Prices ] 73
3.10 Impact of Negative False Beliefs on stock Prices 175
3.11 Impact of Extreme Positive False Beliefs on Stock Prices 177
3.12 Impact of Extreme Negative False Beliefs on Stock Prices 179
3.13 Do False Beliefs over Three Months Move Stocks Prices in the US 181
3.14 Dynamics of Three-Month Revisions in Europe 182
3.15 Dynamics of Three-Month Revisions in Japan 183
List of Figures
1.1 Distribution of Number of Forecasts per Economist 58
1.2 Affiliation of Forecaster 58
] .3 Accuracy Time Profile for Six-month and Twelve-month Forecasts 59
1.4 Difference in Accuracy between Past Experts (Bulls. Trend Followers, Eccentrics) 61
and Their Opposite Groups
1.5 Difference in Accuracy Between Business Economists (Professors, Bankers) and 62
the Rest
1.6 Time Profile of Cross-sectional Expertise 63
1.7 Time Profile of Cross-sectional Bullishness 64
1.8 Time Profile of the Cross-sectional Tendency to Follow Trends 65
1.9 Time Profile of Cross-sectional Eccentricity 66
1.10 Sensitivities of Forecaster Characteristics on Accuracy 67
2.1 Value of Foreknowledge for Earnings (Forecasts) Six Months in Advance 141
2.2 Investment Value of Knowing Forecast Errors across Countries 142
2.3 Investment Value of Knowing Actual Earnings across Countries 143
2.4 Investment Value of Knowing Actual Prices across Countries 144
2.5 Investment Value of Knowing Forecast Revisions across Countries 145
2.6 Investment Value of Knowing Future Forecast Errors across Countries 146
2.7 Investment Value of Knowing Actual Prices across Countries 4?
2.8 Cross-sectional Perspective of Investment Value from Pre-knowledge of 148
Earnings (Forecasts)
3.1 False Beliefs Conditional on Sign of Forecast Revision and Months Before 184
Earnings Announcement
3.2 Tendency for Analysts to Extrapolate !
3.3 Truth-telling in Good and Bad Environments I86
3.4 Time-series Behavior of Optimism and True Beliefs in the US !87
3.5 Time-series Behavior of Optimism and True Beliefs in Europe ] 88
3.6 Time-series Behavior of Optimism and True Beliefs in Japan 189
3.7 Relationship Between Positive Revisions and Stock Returns 190
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Kappler, Andreas 1971- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)136779867 |
| author_facet | Kappler, Andreas 1971- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Kappler, Andreas 1971- |
| author_variant | a k ak |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV035333117 |
| classification_rvk | QK 620 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)301998723 (DE-599)DNB991830032 |
| dewey-full | 332.642 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 332 - Financial economics |
| dewey-raw | 332.642 |
| dewey-search | 332.642 |
| dewey-sort | 3332.642 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Thesis Book |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:31:30Z |
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| spelling | Kappler, Andreas 1971- Verfasser (DE-588)136779867 aut Expert judgements in financial markets three empirical studies by Andreas Kappler 2008 193 S. graph. Darst. 21 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Zürich, Univ., Diss., 2008 Bewertung stw Börsenkurs stw Europa stw Japan stw Prognoseverfahren stw Sachverständige stw Spillover-Effekt stw USA stw Ökonomischer Anreiz stw Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 gnd rswk-swf Evaluation (DE-588)4071034-8 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Internationaler Wertpapiermarkt (DE-588)4467571-9 gnd rswk-swf Finanzanalyst (DE-588)4507285-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Internationaler Wertpapiermarkt (DE-588)4467571-9 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Finanzanalyst (DE-588)4507285-1 s Evaluation (DE-588)4071034-8 s DE-604 Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 s DE-188 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017137529&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Kappler, Andreas 1971- Expert judgements in financial markets three empirical studies Bewertung stw Börsenkurs stw Europa stw Japan stw Prognoseverfahren stw Sachverständige stw Spillover-Effekt stw USA stw Ökonomischer Anreiz stw Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 gnd Evaluation (DE-588)4071034-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Internationaler Wertpapiermarkt (DE-588)4467571-9 gnd Finanzanalyst (DE-588)4507285-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4073788-3 (DE-588)4071034-8 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4467571-9 (DE-588)4507285-1 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Expert judgements in financial markets three empirical studies |
| title_auth | Expert judgements in financial markets three empirical studies |
| title_exact_search | Expert judgements in financial markets three empirical studies |
| title_full | Expert judgements in financial markets three empirical studies by Andreas Kappler |
| title_fullStr | Expert judgements in financial markets three empirical studies by Andreas Kappler |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expert judgements in financial markets three empirical studies by Andreas Kappler |
| title_short | Expert judgements in financial markets |
| title_sort | expert judgements in financial markets three empirical studies |
| title_sub | three empirical studies |
| topic | Bewertung stw Börsenkurs stw Europa stw Japan stw Prognoseverfahren stw Sachverständige stw Spillover-Effekt stw USA stw Ökonomischer Anreiz stw Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 gnd Evaluation (DE-588)4071034-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Internationaler Wertpapiermarkt (DE-588)4467571-9 gnd Finanzanalyst (DE-588)4507285-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bewertung Börsenkurs Europa Japan Prognoseverfahren Sachverständige Spillover-Effekt USA Ökonomischer Anreiz Kreditmarkt Evaluation Prognose Internationaler Wertpapiermarkt Finanzanalyst Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017137529&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kapplerandreas expertjudgementsinfinancialmarketsthreeempiricalstudies |