Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies:
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| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Madrid
2008
|
| Edition: | 1. print. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | http://www.wtoelibrary.org |
| Physical Description: | VIII, 89 S. graph. Darst. 1 CD-Rom |
| ISBN: | 9789284412389 9789299005002 |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | HANDBOOK ON TOURISM FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD
VII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IX WHAT IS TOURISM FORECASTING AND HOW TO DO IT? 1
1.1 WHAT IS FORECASTING? 1 1.2 WHAT TO FORECAST? 1 1.3 QUANTITATIVE
VERSUS QUALITATIVE FORECASTING 2 1.4 TIME SCALE, TIME SERIES AND DATA
COLLECTION 3 BASIC DESCRIPTIONS OF FORECASTING METHODS 5 2.1 SIMPLE
EXTRAPOLATIVE METHODS 5 2.2 NO-CHANGE EXTRAPOLATION METHOD 6 2.2.1
GENERAL DESCRIPTION 6 2.2.2 STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE 6 2.2.3 TECHNICAL DETAILS
AND MATHEMATICS 6 2.2.4 SIMPLE WORKED EXAMPLE 7 2.3 SINGLE MOVING
AVERAGE EXTRAPOLATION METHOD 7 2.3.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION 7 2.3.2
STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE 8 2.3.3 TECHNICAL DETAILS AND MATHEMATICS 8 2.3.4
SIMPLE WORKED EXAMPLE 9 2.4 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING EXTRAPOLATION METHOD 9
2.4.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION 9 2.4.2 STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE 10 2.4.3 TECHNICAL
DETAILS AND MATHEMATICS 10 2.4.4 SIMPLE WORKED EXAMPLE 12 2.5
DECOMPOSITION METHODS 13 2.5.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION 13 2.5.2 STEP-BY-STEP
GUIDE TO REMOVING SEASONALITY USING DECOMPOSITION 13 2.5.3 TECHNICAL
DETAILS AND MATHEMATICS 13 2.5.4 SIMPLE WORKED EXAMPLE 14 2.6 SIMPLE
EXTRAPOLATIVE METHODS - CONCLUSIONS 16 2.7 ADVANCED EXTRAPOLATIVE
METHODS 16 2.8 AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE (ARMA) METHOD 17 2.8.1
GENERAL DESCRIPTION 17 2.8.2 TECHNICAL DETAILS AND MATHEMATICS 17 2.9
CAUSAL MODELS 18 HANDBOOK ON TOURISM FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES 2.10
LINEAR REGRESSION 18 2.10.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION 18 2.10.2 STEP-BY-STEP
GUIDE 19 2.10.3 TECHNICAL DETAILS AND MATHEMATICS 19 2.10.4 EXAMPLE OF
LINEAR REGRESSION USING TIME AS THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLE 20 2.11
MULTIPLE REGRESSION METHOD 21 2.11.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION 21 2.11.2
STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE 22 2.11.3 TECHNICAL DETAILS 23 2.11.4 CONCISE EXAMPLE
OF A MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL 23 2.12 STRUCTURAL ECONOMETRIC METHODS 26
2.12.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION 26 2.12.2 STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE 26 2.12.3
TECHNICAL DETAILS 27 2.13 QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS 27 2.14 JURY
OF EXECUTIVE OPINION 28 2.14.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION 28 2.14.2
STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE 28 2.15 THE DELPHI METHOD 28 2.15.1 GENERAL
DESCRIPTION 28 2.15.2 STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE 29 2.16 SCENARIO PLANNING 30
2.16.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION 30 2.16.2 STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE 31 2.17 MIXTURES
OF METHODS 31 2.18 COMPARING THE PERFORMANCE OF DIFFERENT METHODS 31
2.18.1 ERROR MAGNITUDE ACCURACY 32 2.18.2 DIRECTIONAL CHANGE ACCURACY 33
2.18.3 TREND CHANGE ACCURACY 33 CHOOSING A FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 35
3.1 GETTING STARTED 35 3.2 RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS 35 3.3 CHOOSING AN
APPROPRIATE GENERAL METHODOLOGY 37 3.4 CHOOSING A SPECIFIC FORECASTING
METHOD 38 3.4.1 CATEGORIES OF METHODOLOGIES 38 3.4.2 USING THE DECISION
MATRIX 39 3.4.3 KEY TO USER REQUIREMENTS IN THE DECISION MATRIX 39 CASE
STUDIES 41 4.1 GERMAN NATIONAL TOURIST BOARD S WORLD CUP FORECAST 42 4.2
VISITBRITAIN S INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER FORECAST, 2006 43 4.3
KWA-ZULU-NATAL 5-YEAR DEMAND FORECAST 44 4.4 ROMANIAN DOMESTIC TOURISM
FORECAST 45 4.5 TRC NEW ZEALAND S 6-YEAR TOURISM ACTIVITY FORECAST 46
TABLE OF CONTENTS 4.6 NAMIBIA TB S 15-YEAR TOURISM GROWTH FORECAST 48
4.7 NAMIBIA TB S 15-YEAR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FORECAST 49 4.8
UNWTO/FUNDACION PREMIO ARCE S INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS FORECAST FOR 2006
50 4.9 VISITSCOTLAND S INTERNATIONAL TOURISM FORECAST 55 4.10 TOURISM
RESEARCH AUSTRALIA S 10-YEAR TOURISM GROWTH FORECAST 56 4.11
VISITBRITAIN S TERRORISM IMPACT FORECAST 58 4.12 JAPAN TRAVEL BUREAU
FOUNDATION S OUTBOUND TOURISM DEMAND FORECAST 59 4.13 TOURISM AUTHORITY
OF THAILAND S INTERNATIONAL TOURISM FORECAST 60 4.14 CANADIAN TOURISM
INDUSTRY FORECAST(S) - INBOUND, OUTBOUND, DOMESTIC AND INDUSTRY PROFITS
61 4.15 AIRBUS TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECAST 62 4.16 PACIFIC ASIA TRAVEL
ASSOCIATION S FORECASTS OF TOURISM DEMAND 63 4.17 HUNGARIAN NTO S
SHORT-TERM FORECAST 66 4.18 VISITSCOTLAND S AVIAN FLU SCENARIOS FORECAST
; 68 4.19 VISITSCOTLAND S CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM SCENARIOS FORECAST
69 4.20 AUSTRIAN NATIONAL TOURIST OFFICE S TOURISM FORECASTING
TECHNIQUES 70 4.21 CONSAVE 2050 S SCENARIO FORECASTING ON AVIATION AND
EMISSIONS 71 LIST OF BOXES, FIGURES AND TABLES 73 LIST OF ACRONYMS 75
GLOSSARY 77 BIBLIOGRAPHY 81
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:31:13Z |
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| isbn | 9789284412389 9789299005002 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies publ. by the World Tourism Organization ... 1. print. Madrid 2008 VIII, 89 S. graph. Darst. 1 CD-Rom txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier http://www.wtoelibrary.org Tourism Forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Tourismus (DE-588)4018406-7 gnd rswk-swf Tourismus (DE-588)4018406-7 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 World Tourism Organization Sonstige (DE-588)1053038-1 oth GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017124931&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies Tourism Forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Tourismus (DE-588)4018406-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4018406-7 |
| title | Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies |
| title_auth | Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies |
| title_exact_search | Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies |
| title_full | Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies publ. by the World Tourism Organization ... |
| title_fullStr | Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies publ. by the World Tourism Organization ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies publ. by the World Tourism Organization ... |
| title_short | Handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies |
| title_sort | handbook on tourism forecasting methodologies |
| topic | Tourism Forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Tourismus (DE-588)4018406-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Tourism Forecasting Prognose Tourismus |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017124931&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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