Projecting potential output: methods and problems
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Heidelberg
Physica-Verl.
2009
|
| Series: | ZEW economic studies
42 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | VII, 200 S. graph. Darst. 235 mm x 155 mm |
| ISBN: | 9783790821765 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Table
of Contents
1
Introduction
...................................................................................................... 1
THEORETICAL PART
.......................................................................................3
2
The Concept of Potential Output: A History of Origins
...............................5
2.1
Introduction
...............................................................................................5
2.2
Okun
s
Contribution
.................................................................................6
2.3
The New Neoclassical Synthesis
..............................................................7
2.4
Wicksell and Keynes Connections
..........................................................10
2.4.1
Interest Rate Gaps and Inflation
......................................................10
2.4.2
Impulse Propagation Mechanisms
..................................................11
2.4.3
Monetary Policy and the Formation of Expectations and Capital...
13
2.4.4
The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Business Cycle
........15
2.4.5
Effective Demand and Unemployment
...........................................18
2.4.6
Business Cycles and Economic Growth
.........................................20
2.4.7
Inflationary Gaps and Output Gaps
.................................................23
2.4.8
Interim Conclusion
..........................................................................26
2.5
Phillips Curve Debates
............................................................................27
2.5.1
Full Employment and Monetary Stability
-
A Trade-off?
..............27
2.5.2
Inefficiency of Expansive Stabilisation Policy
...............................29
2.5.3
Time Inconsistency of Stabilisation Policy
.....................................32
2.5.4
Equilibrium Business Cycles
..........................................................35
2.5.5
Persistent Unemployment
...............................................................37
2.5.6
Interim Conclusion
..........................................................................42
2.6
Empirics and Politics
..............................................................................42
2.6.1
The Progression of National Accounting
........................................42
2.6.2
Potential Output in Political Advisory
............................................45
2.6.3
Conclusion: The Evolution of Theories and Growth Regimes
.......47
3
Historical Positions and Controversies
__.......................__......................... 57
3.1
Introduction
.............................................................................................57
3.2
Macroeconomic
Aggregates
...................................................................57
3.3
Growth Trend and the Business Cycle
....................................................60
3.4
Non-Inflationary Unemployment
............................................................63
3.5
The Role of Monetary Policy
..................................................................65
VI Table of
Contents
4
Epistemological Subsumption
.......................................................................67
4.1
Introduction
............................................................................................67
4.2
System-Theoretical Concepts and Paradigmatic Considerations
............67
4.3
Characteristics and Systems Performance in Closed Systems
................70
4.4
Modelling the Economy as a Closed System: Systems Behaviour
and Forecasting
.......................................................................................71
4.5
Characteristics and Systems Behaviour in Open Systems
......................73
4.6
Modelling the Economy as an Open System: Systems Behaviour
and Limits to Forecasting
.......................................................................78
METHODOLOGICAL-EMPIRICAL PART
..................................................83
5
Analysis and Criticism of Conventional Methods of Estimation........
___85
5.1
Introduction
............................................................................................85
5.2
Methods of Estimating Potential Output and Potential Growth
..............87
5.2.1
Univariate Methods of Estimating Potential Output and
Potential Growth
.............................................................................87
5.2.2
Multivariate Methods of Estimating Potential Output and
Potential Growth
.............................................................................90
5.3
-Tn-SampkfAnalysis
..............................................................................99
5.4
Out-of-Sample
Forecasts
...................................................................103
5.5
Formal Assessment of Forecast Precision and Accuracy
.....................105
5.6
Conclusions
..........................................................................................
Ill
6
Analysis of the Declining Trend in Germany s Potential Growth
Performance.................................................................................................
113
6.1
Introduction
..........................................................................................113
6.2
Direct Factors Contributing to Growth
.................................................115
6.2.1
Labour Volume Trends
.................................................................116
6.2.2
Human Capital Formation
............................................................119
6.2.3
Accumulation of Real Capital
.......................................................121
6.2.4
Technological Progress
.................................................................124
6.3
Indirect Influencing Factors
..................................................................126
6.3.1
The Institutional Framework
.........................................................126
6.3.2
Fiscal Policy
..................................................................................130
6.4
Special Factors
......................................................................................136
6.4.1
European Economic and Monetary Union
....................................136
6.4.2
Reunification
.................................................................................139
7
Alternative Methods for a Forward-Looking Assessment of
Potential GDP Growth
______________________________________141
7.1
Introduction
..........................................................................................141
7.2
Overview of the Relevant Literature and Theoretical Aspects
.............141
7.3
Empirical Methodology
........................................................................143
7.3.1
In-Sample Analysis
...................................................................144
7.3.2
Out-of-Sample
Analysis
............................................................144
Table
of
Contents
VII
7.4 Data
and Descriptive Statistics
.............................................................145
7.5
Results of the In-Sample Analysis
....................................................146
7.6
Results of the Out-of-Sample Analysis
.............................................155
7.6.1
RMSE and Theil s U.
....................................................................155
7.6.2
Predictive Power and Model Performance over Time
..................157
7.7
Conclusion
............................................................................................160
8
Conclusions for Economic Policy and Empirical Macroeconomics
__...161
Annex
..................................................................................................................167
AI:
Annex to Chapter
5..................................................................................167
ALL Data Sources for Chapter
5.............................................................167
AI.2. Business Cycle Dating for Germany
...............................................169
AI.3. Estimation of the Structural
VAR (SVAR)
Model
.........................170
AI.4 The Production Function Approach (PFA)
......................................174
AH: Annex to Chapter
7................................................................................180
List of Figures
....................................................................................................185
List of Tables
......................................................................................................187
References
..........................................................................................................189
|
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| spelling | Projecting potential output methods and problems Sebastian Hauptmeier ... Heidelberg Physica-Verl. 2009 VII, 200 S. graph. Darst. 235 mm x 155 mm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier ZEW economic studies 42 Industrial productivity Forecasting Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung (DE-588)4014609-1 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 gnd rswk-swf Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd rswk-swf Produktionspotential (DE-588)4175807-9 gnd rswk-swf Produktionspotential (DE-588)4175807-9 s Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 s Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 s DE-188 Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung (DE-588)4014609-1 s Hauptmeier, Sebastian 1976- Sonstige (DE-588)137501447 oth ZEW economic studies 42 (DE-604)BV012864799 42 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017113883&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Projecting potential output methods and problems ZEW economic studies Industrial productivity Forecasting Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung (DE-588)4014609-1 gnd Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd Produktionspotential (DE-588)4175807-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4014609-1 (DE-588)4079351-5 (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4066527-6 (DE-588)4175807-9 |
| title | Projecting potential output methods and problems |
| title_auth | Projecting potential output methods and problems |
| title_exact_search | Projecting potential output methods and problems |
| title_full | Projecting potential output methods and problems Sebastian Hauptmeier ... |
| title_fullStr | Projecting potential output methods and problems Sebastian Hauptmeier ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting potential output methods and problems Sebastian Hauptmeier ... |
| title_short | Projecting potential output |
| title_sort | projecting potential output methods and problems |
| title_sub | methods and problems |
| topic | Industrial productivity Forecasting Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung (DE-588)4014609-1 gnd Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd Produktionspotential (DE-588)4175807-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Industrial productivity Forecasting Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung Wirtschaftstheorie Prognoseverfahren Wirtschaftswachstum Produktionspotential |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017113883&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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