Global catastrophic risks:
Saved in:
| Other Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Oxford [u.a.]
Oxford Univ. Press
2008
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XXII, 554 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9780198570509 0198570503 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Global catastrophic risks |c ed. by Nick Bostrom ; Milan M. Ćirković |
| 264 | 1 | |a Oxford [u.a.] |b Oxford Univ. Press |c 2008 | |
| 300 | |a XXII, 554 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Ćirković, Milan M. |4 edt | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text |
Contents
Acknowledgements. v
Foreword.vii
Martin J. Rees
1 Introduction. 1
Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovid
1.1 Why?. 1
1.2 Taxonomy and organization. 2
1.3 Part I: Background. 7
1.4 Part II: Risks from nature. 13
1.5 Part III: Risks from unintended consequences. 15
1.6 Part IV: Risks from hostile acts. 20
1.7 Conclusions and future directions. 27
Parti Background 31
2 Long-term astrophysical processes. 33
Fred C. Adams
2.1 Introduction: physical eschatology. 33
2.2 Fate of the Earth. 34
2.3 Isolation of the local group. 36
2.4 Collision with Andromeda. 36
2.5 The end of stellar evolution. 38
2.6 The era of degenerate remnants. 39
2.7 The era of black holes. 41
2.8 The Dark Era and beyond. 41
2.9 life and information processing. 43
2.10 Conclusion. 44
Suggestions for further reading.45
References.45
3 Evolution theory and the future of humanity. 48
Christopher Wills
3.1 Introduction.48
3.2 The causes of evolutionary change.49
xiv Contents
3.3 Environmental changes and evolutionary changes. 50
3.3.1 Extreme evolutionary changes. 51
3.3.2 Ongoing evolutionary changes. 53
3.3.3 Changes in the cultural environment. 56
3.4 Ongoing human evolution. 61
3.4.1 Behavioural evolution. 61
3.4.2 The future of genetic engineering. 63
3.4.3 The evolution of other species, including those on
which we depend. 64
3.5 Future evolutionary directions. 65
3.5.1 Drastic and rapid climate change without changes
in human behaviour. 66
3.5.2 Drastic but slower environmental change
accompanied by changes in human behaviour. 66
3.5.3 Colonization of new environments by our species. 67
Suggestions for further reading. 68
References. 69
4 Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats. 73
James J. Hughes
4.1 Introduction. 73
4.2 Types of millennialism. 74
4.2.1 Premillennialism . 74
4.2.2 Amillennialism. 75
4.2.3 Post-millennialism. 76
4.3 Messianism and millenarianism. 77
4.4 Positive or negative teleologies: utopianism
and apocalypticism. 77
4.5 Contemporary techno-millennialism. 79
4.5.1 The singularity and techno-millennialism . 79
4.6 Techno-apocalypticism. 81
4.7 Symptoms of dysfunctional millennialism in assessing
future scenarios. 83
4.8 Conclusions.85
Suggestions for further reading. 86
References. 86
5 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of
global risks.91
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5.1 Introduction. 91
5.2 Availability .92
5.3 Hindsight bias. 93
5.4 Black Swans.94
Contents xv
5.5 The conjunction fallacy. 95
5.6 Confirmation bias. 98
5.7 Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination. 101
5.8 The affect heuristic. 104
5.9 Scope neglect. 105
5.10 Calibration and overconfidence. 107
5.11 Bystander apathy. 109
5.12 A final caution. Ill
5.13 Conclusion. 112
Suggestions for further reading. 115
References. 115
6 Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks. 120
Milan M. Cirkovit
6.1 Introduction: anthropic reasoning and global risks. 120
6.2 Past-future asymmetry and risk inferences. 121
6.2.1 A simplified model. 122
6.2.2 Anthropic overconfidence bias. 124
6.2.3 Applicability class of risks. 126
6.2.4 Additional astrobiological information. 128
6.3 Doomsday Argument. 129
6.4 Fermi's paradox. 131
6.4.1 Fermi's paradox and GCRs . 134
6.4.2 Risks following from the presence of
extraterrestrial intelligence. 135
6.5 The Simulation Argument. 138
6.6 Making progress in studying observation selection
effects. 140
Suggestions for further reading. 141
References. 141
7 Systems-based risk analysis. 146
Yacov Y. Haimes
7.1 Introduction. 146
7.2 Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors
of the economy. 148
7.3 Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of
scenario structuring. 150
7.3.1 Philosophy and methodology of hierarchical
holographic modelling. 150
7.3.2 The definition of risk. 151
7.3.3 Historical perspectives . 151
7.4 Phantom system models for risk management of
emergent multi-scale systems. 153
xvi Contents
7.5 Risk of extreme and catastrophic events . 155
7.5.1 The limitations of the expected value of risk. 155
7.5.2 The partitioned multi-objective risk method. 156
7.5.3 Risk versus reliability analysis. 159
Suggestions for further reading. 162
References. 162
8 Catastrophes and insurance. 164
Peter Taylor
8.1 Introduction. 164
8.2 Catastrophes. 166
8.3 What the business world thinks. 168
8.4 Insurance. 169
8.5 Pricing the risk. 172
8.6 Catastrophe loss models. 173
8.7 Whatisrisk? . 176
8.8 Price and probability. 179
8.9 The age of uncertainty. 179
8.10 New techniques. 180
8.10.1 Qualitative risk assessment. 180
8.10.2 Complexity science . 181
8.10.3 Extreme value statistics. 181
8.11 Conclusion: against the gods?. 181
Suggestions for further reading. 182
References. 182
9 Public policy towards catastrophe. 184
Richard A. Posner
References. 200
Part II Risks from nature 203
10 Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of
catastrophic import. 205
Michael R. Rampino
10.1 Introduction. 205
10.2 Atmospheric impact of a super-eruption. 206
10.3 Volcanic winter.:. 207
10.4 Possible environmental effects of a super-eruption. 209
10.5 Super-eruptions and human population. 211
10.6 Frequency of super-eruptions. 212
10.7 Effects of a super-eruptions on civilization. 213
10.8 Super-eruptions and life in the universe. 214
Suggestions for further reading. 216
References. 216
Contents xvii
11 Hazards from comets and asteroids. 222
William Napier
11.1 Something like a huge mountain. 222
11.2 How often are we struck?. 223
11.2.1 Impact craters. 223
11.2.2 Near-Earth object searches. 226
11.2.3 Dynamical analysis. 226
11.3 The effects of impact. 229
11.4 The role of dust. 231
11.5 Ground truth?. 233
11.6 Uncertainties. 234
Suggestions for further reading. 235
References. 235
12 Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and
cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment. 238
Arnon Dar
12.1 Introduction. 238
12.2 Radiation threats. 238
12.2.1 Credible threats. 238
12.2.2 Solar flares. 242
12.2.3 Solar activity and global warming. 243
12.2.4 Solar extinction. 245
12.2.5 Radiation from supernova explosions . 245
12.2.6 Gamma-ray bursts. 246
12.3 Cosmic ray threats. 248
12.3.1 Earth magnetic field reversals. 250
12.3.2 Solar activity, cosmic rays, and global
warming. 250
12.3.3 Passage through the Galactic spiral arms. 251
12.3.4 Cosmic rays from nearby supernovae. 252
12.3.5 Cosmic rays from gamma-ray bursts . 252
12.4 Origin of the major mass extinctions. 255
12.5 The Fermi paradox and mass extinctions. 257
12.6 Conclusions. 258
References. 259
Part III Risks from unintended consequences 263
13 Climate change and global risk. 265
David Frame and Myles R. Allen
13.1 Introduction. 265
13.2 Modelling climate change. 266
13.3 A simple model of climate change. 267
xviii Contents
13.3.1 Solar forcing. 268
13.3.2 Volcanic forcing. 269
13.3.3 Anthropogenic forcing. 271
13.4 Limits to current knowledge. 273
13.5 Denning dangerous climate change. 276
13.6 Regional climate risk under anthropogenic change. 278
13.7 Climate risk and mitigation policy. 279
13.8 Discussion and conclusions. 281
Suggestions for further reading. 282
References. 283
14 Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future. 287
Edwin Dennis Kilboume
14.1 Introduction. 287
14.2 The baseline: the chronic and persisting
burden of infectious disease. 287
14.3 The causation of pandemics. 289
14.4 The nature and source of the parasites. 289
14.5 Modes of microbial and viral transmission. 290
14.6 Nature of the disease impact: high morbidity, high
mortality, or both. 291
14.7 Environmental factors. 292
14.8 Human behaviour. 293
14.9 Infectious diseases as contributors to other
natural catastrophes. 293
14.10 Past Plagues and pandemics and their
impact on history. 294
14.11 Plagues of historical note. 295
14.11.1 Bubonic plague: the Black Death. 295
14.11.2 Cholera. 295
14.11.3 Malaria. 296
14.11.4 Smallpox. 296
14.11.5 Tuberculosis. 297
14.11.6 Syphilis as a paradigm of sexually transmitted
infections. 297
14.11.7 Influenza. 298
14.12 Contemporary plagues and pandemics. 298
14.12.1 HIV/AIDS. 298
14.12.2 Influenza. 299
14.12.3 HIV and tuberculosis: the double impact of
new and ancient threats. 299
14.13 Plagues and pandemics of the future. 300
14.13.1 Microbes that threaten without infection:
the microbial toxins. 300
Contents xix
14.13.2 Iatrogenic diseases. 300
14.13.3 The homogenization of peoples and cultures. 301
14.13.4 Man-made viruses. 302
14.14 Discussion and conclusions. 302
Suggestions for further reading. 304
References. 304
15 Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative
factor in global risk. 308
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15.1 Introduction. 308
15.2 Anthropomorphic bias. 308
15.3 Prediction and design. 311
15.4 Underestimating the power of intelligence. 313
15.5 Capability and motive. 314
15.5.1 Optimization processes. 315
15.5.2 Aiming at the target. 316
15.6 Friendly Artificial Intelligence. 317
15.7 Technical failure and philosophical failure. 318
15.7.1 An example of philosophical failure. 319
15.7.2 An example of technical failure. 320
15.8 Rates of intelligence increase. 323
15.9 Hardware. 328
15.10 Threats and promises. 329
15.11 Local and majoritarian strategies . 333
15.12 Interactions of Artificial Intelligence with
other technologies. 337
15.13 Making progress on Friendly Artificial Intelligence. 338
15.14 Conclusion. 341
References. 343
16 Big troubles, imagined and real. 346
Frank Wilczek
16.1 Why look for trouble?. 346
16.2 Looking before leaping. 347
16.2.1 Accelerator disasters. 347
16.2.2 Runaway technologies. 357
16.3 Preparing to Prepare. 358
16.4 Wondering. 359
Suggestions for further reading. 361
References. 361
17 Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction. 363
Robin Hanson
17.1 Introduction. 363
xx Contents
17.2 What is society?. 363
17.3 Social growth. 364
17.4 Social collapse. 366
17.5 The distribution of disaster. 367
17.6 Existential disasters. 369
17.7 Disaster policy. 372
17.8 Conclusion. 375
References. 376
Part IV Risks from hostile acts 379
18 The continuing threat of nuclear war. 381
Joseph Cirincione
18.1 Introduction. 381
18.1.1 US nuclear forces. 384
18.1.2 Russian nuclear forces . 385
18.2 Calculating Armageddon. 386
18.2.1 Limited war. 386
18.2.2 Global war. 388
18.2.3 Regional war. 390
18.2.4 Nuclear winter. 390
18.3 The current nuclear balance. 392
18.4 The good news about proliferation . 396
18.5 A comprehensive approach. 397
18.6 Conclusion. 399
Suggestions for further reading. 401
19 Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril. 402
Gary Ackerman and William C. Potter
19.1 Introduction. 402
19.2 Historical recognition of the risk of nuclear terrorism. 403
19.3 Motivations and capabilities for nuclear terrorism. 406
19.3.1 Motivations: the demand side of nuclear terrorism . 406
19.3.2 The supply side of nuclear terrorism . 411
19.4 Probabilities of occurrence. 416
19.4.1 The demand side: who wants nuclear weapons?. 416
19.4.2 The supply side: how far have
terrorists progressed?. 419
19.4.3 What is the probability that terrorists will acquire
nuclear explosive capabilities in the future?. 422
19.4.4 Could terrorists precipitate a nuclear holocaust by
non-nuclear means?. 426
19.5 Consequences of nuclear terrorism. 427
Contents xxi
19.5.1 Physical and economic consequences. 427
19.5.2 Psychological, social, and political consequences. 429
19.6 Risk assessment and risk reduction. 432
19.6.1 The risk of global catastrophe. 432
19.6.2 Risk reduction. 436
19.7 Recommendations. 437
19.7.1 Immediate priorities. 437
19.7.2 Long-term priorities. 440
19.8 Conclusion. 441
Suggestions for further reading. 442
References. 442
20 Biotechnology and biosecurity. 450
AH Nouri and Christopher F. Chyba
20.1 Introduction. 450
20.2 Biological weapons and risks. 453
20.3 Biological weapons are distinct from other so-called
weapons of mass destruction. 454
20.4 Benefits come with risks. 455
20.5 Biotechnology risks go beyond traditional virology,
micro- and molecular biology. 458
20.6 Addressing biotechnology risks. 460
20.6.1 Oversight of research. 460
20.6.2 'Soft' oversight. 462
20.6.3 Multi-stakeholder partnerships for addressing
biotechnology risks. 462
20.6.4 A risk management framework for de novo
DNA synthesis technologies. 463
20.6.5 From voluntary codes of conduct to
international regulations. 464
20.6.6 Biotechnology risks go beyond creating
novel pathogens. 464
20.6.7 Spread of biotechnology may enhance
biological security. 465
20.7 Catastrophic biological attacks. 466
20.8 Strengthening disease surveillance and response. 469
20.8.1 Surveillance and detection. 469
20.8.2 Collaboration and communication are essential
for managing outbreaks. 470
20.8.3 Mobilization of the public health sector. 471
20.8.4 Containment of the disease outbreak. 472
xxii Contents
20.8.5 Research, vaccines, and drug development are
essential components of an effective
defence strategy. 473
20.8.6 Biological security requires fostering
collaborations. 473
20.9 Towards a biologically secure future. 474
Suggestions for further reading. 475
References. 476
21 Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk. 481
Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder
21.1 Nanoscale technologies. 482
21.1.1 Necessary simplicity of products. 482
21.1.2 Risks associated with nanoscale technologies. 483
21.2 Molecular manufacturing. 484
21.2.1 Products of molecular manufacturing. 486
21.2.2 Nano-built weaponry. 487
21.2.3 Global catastrophic risks. 488
21.3 Mitigation of molecular manufacturing risks. 496
21.4 Discussion and conclusion. 498
Suggestions for further reading. 499
References. 502
22 The totalitarian threat. 504
Bryan Caplan
22.1 Totalitarianism: what happened and why it
(mostly) ended. 504
22.2 Stable totalitarianism. 506
22.3 Risk factors for stable totalitarianism. 510
22.3.1 Technology. 511
22.3.2 Politics. 512
22.4 Totalitarian risk management. 514
22.4.1 Technology. 514
22.4.2 Politics. 515
22.5 'What's your p?'. 516
Suggestions for further reading. 518
References. 518
Authors' biographies. 520
Index. 531 |
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| publisher | Oxford Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Global catastrophic risks ed. by Nick Bostrom ; Milan M. Ćirković Oxford [u.a.] Oxford Univ. Press 2008 XXII, 554 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Natural disasters Disasters Risk assessment Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Katastrophe (DE-588)4029929-6 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Katastrophe (DE-588)4029929-6 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s DE-604 Bostrom, Nick 1973- (DE-588)135992451 edt Ćirković, Milan M. edt HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017105829&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Global catastrophic risks Natural disasters Disasters Risk assessment Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Katastrophe (DE-588)4029929-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4029929-6 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Global catastrophic risks |
| title_auth | Global catastrophic risks |
| title_exact_search | Global catastrophic risks |
| title_full | Global catastrophic risks ed. by Nick Bostrom ; Milan M. Ćirković |
| title_fullStr | Global catastrophic risks ed. by Nick Bostrom ; Milan M. Ćirković |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global catastrophic risks ed. by Nick Bostrom ; Milan M. Ćirković |
| title_short | Global catastrophic risks |
| title_sort | global catastrophic risks |
| topic | Natural disasters Disasters Risk assessment Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Katastrophe (DE-588)4029929-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Natural disasters Disasters Risk assessment Risikoanalyse Katastrophe Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017105829&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bostromnick globalcatastrophicrisks AT cirkovicmilanm globalcatastrophicrisks |