The Garnaut climate change review: final report
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2008
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| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XLV, 634 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780521744447 |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The Garnaut climate change review |b final report |c Ross Garnaut |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge [u.a.] |b Cambridge Univ. Press |c 2008 | |
| 300 | |a XLV, 634 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Klimaänderung | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Nachhaltigkeit | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climatic changes |x Economic aspects |z Australia | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Greenhouse gas mitigation |z Australia | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Sustainable development |z Australia | |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804138365319118848 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xiv
Terms of reference xvi
Introduction xvii
Synopsis of key points xxxv
1 A decision-making framework 1
1.1 The costs of mitigation 3
1.2 Risk and uncertainty 7
1.3 Four types of benefits from mitigation 9
1.4 How effective adaptation reduces the costs of climate
change 13
1.5 Measuring the benefits of mitigation against the costs 14
1.6 A graphical representation of the benefits and costs 15
1.7 Valuing the future relative to the present 18
2 Understanding climate science 23
2.1 The earth s atmosphere 24
2.2 Understanding climate change 27
2.3 Linking emissions and climate change 30
2.4 The task of global mitigation 42
3 Emissions in the Platinum Age 53
3.1 Greenhouse gas emissions by source and country 53
3.2 Recent trends in carbon dioxide emissions from
fossil fuels 55
3.3 Existing emissions projections 58
3.4 The Review s no-mitigation projections: methodology
and assumptions 59
3.5 Results from the Review s projections and comparisons
with existing projections 62
3.6 The impact of high energy prices 67
3.7 Resource limits 69
4 Projecting global climate change 75
4.1 How has the climate changed? 75
4.2 Understanding climate change projections 83
4.3 Projected climate change for the three emissions cases 87
4.4 Assessing the climate risk 96
5 Projecting Australian climate change 105
5.1 Attributing climate change to humans 106
5.2 How has the climate changed in Australia? 106
5.3 Projected climate change in Australia 113
6 Climate change impacts on Australia 121
6.1 Understanding Australia s vulnerability to
climate change 124
6.2 Australia without global mitigation 125
6.3 Direct impacts of climate change on Australia 128
6.4 Indirect impacts of climate change on Australia 145
7 Australia s emissions in a global context 153
7.1 Australia s emissions profile and international
comparisons 153
7.2 Emissions profiles of Australian industries 165
8 Assessing the international response 173
8.1 The evolving international framework for addressing
climate change 174
8.2 National commitments and policies to mitigate climate
change 177
8.3 Assessment of progress under the Kyoto Protocol 180
8.4 Projections given the current trajectory of
mitigation effort 183
8.5 Accelerating progress 184
9 Towards global agreement 191
9.1 Agreeing on a global goal 192
9.2 What form should national commitments take? 195
9.3 A graduated approach to national commitments 198
9.4 Principles for allocating emissions entitlements
across countries 200
9.5 Modelling a per capita approach to the allocation of
emissions entitlements 205
9.6 Reaching agreement on 550 or 450: is it possible? 212
10 Deepening global collaboration 217
10.1 International public funding for mitigation 218
10.2 International public funding for adaptation 223
10.3 Promoting collaborative research to assist developing
countries 226
10.4 International trade in emissions rights 227
10.5 Price-based sectoral agreements for the trade-exposed,
emissions-intensive sectors 230
10.6 Climate change and trade policy 232
10.7 International aviation and shipping 234
10.8 Land-use change and forestry 235
10.9 Enforcement mechanisms 239
11 Costing climate change and its avoidance 245
11.1 The three global scenarios 246
11.2 Comparing the costs of climate change and mitigation 247
11.3 Modelling mitigation 250
11.4 The decision to mitigate 252
11.5 How much mitigation? 268
12 Targets and trajectories 277
12.1 Determining our conditional and unconditional
targets 278
12.2 The benefits of global cooperation 285
12.3 Solving- a diabolical problem in stages 287
12.4 Hastening progress towards greater emissions
reductions 289
12.5 Moving from a 550 to a 450 goal 290
12.6 Does Australia matter for global mitigation? 291
12.7 Interim targets 294
12.8 Implications for an Australian emissions
trading scheme 298
13 An Australian policy framework 299
13.1 Confronting uncertainty: the policy challenges of
climate change 300
13.2 Avoiding the greatest market failure ever seen 307
13.3 Bungling Australia s emissions trading scheme 314
14 An Australian emissions trading scheme 321
14.1 The framework to guide efficient scheme design 322
14.2 Elemental design features 324
14.3 Releasing permits into the market 330
14.4 Lowering the costs of meeting targets 334
14.5 Addressing the distortion faced by trade-exposed,
emissions-intensive industries 341
14.6 Transition period: Australia s emissions trading
scheme to the end of 2012 350
14.7 Governance: institutional arrangements 351
14.8 Addressing the relationships between an
emissions trading scheme and other policies 353
14.9 Summary of design features of an Australian
emissions trading scheme 357
vm
15 Adaptation and mitigation measures for Australia 363
15.1 Information and understanding 365
15.2 The role of markets and market-based policies 370
15.3 Scaling the challenges: five examples 376
16 Sharing the burden in Australia 385
16.1 Effects of mitigation policy in the short term 386
16.2 A framework for government intervention 393
16.3 Long-term impacts and structural change 400
1 7 Information barriers to known technologies 403
17.1 The impact of information and agency barriers 404
17.2 Information barriers 406
17.3 Principal-agent problems 413
17.4 Minimum performance standards 415
18 The innovation challenge 423
18.1 What is innovation? 424
18.2 Ensuring optimal levels of early research 428
18.3 Rewarding early movers 433
18.4 Overcoming barriers from technological lock-in 441
19 Network infrastructure 445
19.1 The transmission of electricity 446
19.2 The distribution of electricity 451
19.3 Gas transmission infrastructure 453
19.4 The transportation of carbon dioxide 453
19.5 The transport of passengers and freight 455
19.6 Water supply infrastructure 458
19.7 The planning of urban settlements 460
20 Transforming energy 467
20.1 The energy sector today 468
20.2 Drivers of the transformation 472
20.3 The transformation 478
20.4 Modelling results for the energy sector 482
20.5 Major economic impacts 490
20.6 Risks to the transformation 499
21 Transforming transport 503
21.1 The role of transport and its current structure 504
21.2 Causes of the transformation 505
21.3 Economic modelling results: a possible future? 511
21.4 The path to transformation: a picture of future
transport 517
21.5 Fostering the transformation 526
22 Transforming rural land use 531
22.1 Drivers of a transformation towards lower emissions 532
22.2 Economic modelling results: a possible future? 537
22.3 An alternative future 542
22.4 Barriers and limits to a low-emissions future 558
23 Towards a low-emissions economy 565
23.1 The dynamics of economic adjustment with global
mitigation 566
23.2 The economy to and at 550 ppm 570
23.3 The difference between 550 and 450 575
23.4 Australia in the low-emissions world energy
economy 576
23.5 The downside risks 579
23.6 The upside in technology assumptions 580
23.7 The importance of flexible global and national
markets 584
23.8 The importance of education and training 586
23.9 Global mitigation and ongoing prosperity 587
23.10 Australia in a successful world of change 588
24 Fateful decisions 591
List of figures and tables 599
List of shortened forms 606
Glossary 608
Index 617
List of figures and tables
Figures
Figure 1.1 The risk-uncertainty spectrum 8
Figure 1.2 A probability distribution 8
Figure 1.3 The four types of climate change impacts 10
Figure 1.4 Utility with and without mitigation 16
Figure 1.5 Utility under a more ambitious level of mitigation 16
Figure 1.6 Utility with more climate change impacts taken into account 17
Figure 2.1 Trends in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide since 1750 26
Figure 2.2 A stylised model of the natural greenhouse effect and other
influences on the energy balance of the climate system 28
Figure 2.3 Contribution of human and natural factors to warming since 1750 30
Figure 2.4 Steps in the causal chain of greenhouse gas emissions leading
to climate change 31
Figure 2.5 Effect on extremes of temperature from an increase in mean
temperature, an increase in variance, and an increase in both
mean temperature and variance 41
Figure 2.6 Inertia in the climate system 42
Figure 2.7 Response of different carbon sinks to the rate of emissions
over time 44
Figure 2.8 Different pathways of emissions reductions over time to
achieve the same concentration target 45
Figure 2.9 Temperature outcomes of varying levels of overshooting 46
Figure 2.10 Emissions pathways required to achieve a low concentration
target following an overshoot 47
Figure 3.1 The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters: total emissions and
cumulative share (%) of global emissions, c. 2004 54
Figure 3.2 The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters: per capita emissions
including and excluding emissions from land-use change and
forestry, c. 2004 55
Figure 3.3 CO2 emissions/GDP, energy/GDP and CO2 emissions/energy
for the world, OECD and non-OECD, 1971-2005 (1971 = 1) 57
Figure 3.4 Energy intensities of GDP for China and other developing
countries, 1970-2005 57
Figure 3.5 The reference case: global population, GDP and GDP
per capita, 2001 to 2100 59
Figure 3.6 The reference case: global population, GDP, GDP per capita,
and CO2-e emissions, 2000 to 2100—average growth rates
by decade 60
Figure 3.7 Shares in global output of various countries and regions,
2001 to 2100, under the reference case 61
Figure 3.8 Global CO2 emissions growth rates from fossil fuels and
industrial processes to 2030: a comparison of Garnaut
Review no-mitigation projections with SRES and post-SRES
scenarios and historical data 62
Figure 3.9 Global greenhouse gas emissions growth rates to 2030: a comparison
of Garnaut Review no-mitigation projections, SRES and post-SRES
scenarios, and historical data 63
Figure 3.10 Global greenhouse gas emissions to 2100: a comparison of Garnaut
Review no-mitigation projections and various SRES scenarios 64
Figure 3.11 China total energy consumption, levels and growth, 1978 to 2006 66
Figure 3.12 Oil, gas and coal prices, 1970 to 2008 67
Figure 3.13 Global energy use and CO2 emissions, 1970 to 2007 68
Figure 4.1 Selected regional climate change observations 76
Figure 4.2 Average global air temperature anomalies, 1850-2005 78
Figure 4.3 Global average sea-level rise, 1870-2005 80
Figure 4.4 Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere for the three
emissions cases, 1990-2100 86
Figure 4.5 Global average temperature outcomes for three
emissions cases, 1990-2100 88
Figure 4.6 Spatial variation in temperature change in 2100 for the three
emissions cases 90
Figure 4.7 Temperature increases above 1990 levels for the three
emissions cases 92
Figure 4.8 Abrupt or rapid climate change showing the lack of
response until a threshold is reached 97
Figure 5.1 Australian annual average temperature anomalies, 1910-2007 107
Figure 5.2 Annual streamflows into Perth s dams (excluding Stirling and Samson
dams) 110
Figure 5.3 Best estimate (50th percentile) of Australian annual
temperature change at 2030, 2070 and 2100 under three emissions
cases 114
Figure 6.1 Vulnerability and its components 125
Figure 6.2 State and territory impacts of climate change by 2100 under the no-
mitigation case 126
Figure 7.1 Per capita greenhouse gas emissions 154
Figure 7.2 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 1990 and 2006 155
Figure 7.3 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector: 1990, 2006 and reference case
scenarios 156
Figure 7.4 Per capita emissions due to energy use, 2005 157
Figure 7.5 Factors underlying per capita energy emissions, 2005 157
Figure 7.6 Fuel mix contributing to total primary energy supply, 2005 158
Figure 7.7 Trends in average emissions intensity of primary energy supply,
Australia and OECD, 1971 -2005 159
Figure 7.8 Primary energy consumption in Australia, by sector, 2005-06 159
Figure 7.9 Per capita emissions due to electricity, 2005 160
Figure 7.10 Factors underlying per capita electricity emissions, 2005 160
Figure 7.11 Per capita emissions due to transport, 2005 161
Figure 7.12 Factors underlying per capita transport emissions 162
Figure 7.13 Per capita emissions due to agricultural production 163
Figure 7.14 Per capita area of forested and wooded land, 2005 164
Figure 7.15 Emissions attributable to Australian industry by sector, 2006 166
Figure 7.16 Emissions attributable to the Australian mining and
manufacturing industries, disaggregated by sector, 2005 167
Figure 7.17 Ratio of permit costs to value of production, 2005 169
Figure 7.18 Direct emissions intensity of Australia s agriculture industry
compared with selected OECD countries, 2006 170
Figure 8.1 Kyoto targets and 2005 emissions, relative to 1990 181
Figure 9.1 Different concentration goals: stabilisation, overshooting
and peaking 193
Figure 9.2 Different cumulative emissions from the same end-year target (y) 195
Figure 9.3 Emissions trajectories for the no-mitigation, 550 and
450 scenarios, 2000-2100 206
Figure 9.4 Per capita emissions entitlements for the 550 scenario,
2012-2050 208
Figure 9.5 Per capita emissions entitlements for the 450 scenario,
2012-2050 208
Figure 10.1 Energy research and development expenditure by the public
and private sectors in the United States 218
Figure 11.1 Australia s carbon prices under different mitigation scenarios
and technological assumptions 251
Figure 11.2 The modelled expected market costs (median case) for
Australia of unmitigated climate change, 2013 to 2100
(Type 1 costs only) 253
Figure 11.3 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points
lost or gained) due to gross mitigation costs under the
550 scenario strategy compared to no mitigation, and under
standard and enhanced technology assumptions, 2013-50 264
Figure 11.4 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points lost
or gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 550 scenario
compared to no mitigation, 2013-2100 265
Figure 11.5 Change in Australian sectoral growth rates (percentage points lost or
gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 550 scenario compared
to no mitigation, 2013-2100 266
Figure 11.6 A comparison of the modelled expected market costs for
Australia of unmitigated and mitigated climate change up to
2100 (Type 1 costs only) 267
Figure 11.7 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points
lost or gained) due to gross mitigation costs under the 450
compared to the 550 scenario and under standard and enhanced
technology assumptions, 2013-50 268
Figure 11.8 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points
lost or gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 450
compared to the 550 scenario, 2013-2100 269
Figure 12.1 Australian emissions reductions trajectories to 2050
(reduction in total emissions) 284
Figure 12.2 Australian emissions reductions trajectories to 2050
(per capita reduction) 284
Figure 15.1 Areas for further support and investment in the climate
change research system 366
Figure 15.2 Impact of climate change on probability loss distribution and
implications for risk capital requirements 372
Figure 16.1 How will an emissions price flow through the economy? 387
Figure 16.2 Expenditure on basic goods as a share of disposable income 388
Figure 17.1 Residential per capita electricity consumption in the
United States, California and as predicted for California 416
Figure 18.1 The innovation chain 425
Figure 18.2 Market failures along the innovation chain 426
Figure 19.1 Major sequestration sites and carbon dioxide sources
in Australia 454
Figure 20.1 Installed electricity generation capacity, 2005-06 469
Figure 20.2 Comparison of industrial electricity prices 470
Figure 20.3 Average electricity market prices, 1999-2008 471
Figure 20.4 International energy commodity prices, indexed to 1994 473
Figure 20.5 Australia s electricity demand 483
Figure 20.6 Electricity demand reduction in selected sectors, 550 scenario 484
Figure 20.7 Residential demand, 2005-2100 484
Figure 20.8 Australia s electricity technology shares, 550 scenario 485
Figure 20.9 Australia s electricity generation technology shares, 550
scenario with zero-leakage carbon capture and storage 486
Figure 20.10 Australia s electricity generation technology shares, 450 scenario 487
Figure 20.11 Electricity emissions intensity 487
Figure 20.12 Total wholesale electricity costs, with and without nuclear,
550 scenario 488
Figure 20.13 Technology mix under an enhanced technology scenario 489
Figure 20.14 Wholesale electricity prices, 2005-50 490
Figure 20.15 Electricity generated from coal 491
Figure 20.16 Generation capacity, 550 scenario 492
Figure 20.17 Generation capacity, 450 scenario 492
Figure 20.18 Carbon capture and storage scenarios 496
Figure 20.19 Projections for aluminium and alumina industries 497
Figure 20.20 Electricity from gas sources 498
Figure 21.1 Australian domestic transport emissions, 2006 505
Figure 21.2 Passenger travel per capita by various modes, 1970-71 to
2006-07 506
Figure 21.3 Emissions intensity of passenger modes, 2007 509
Figure 21.4 Projected emissions from the domestic transport sector with
standard technology assumptions, 2006-2100 512
Figure 21.5 Breakdown of transport sector emissions in the 550 standard
technology scenario, 2006-2100 513
Figure 21.6 Modelling of road transport fuel use in a 550 standard
technology scenario 514
Figure 21.7 Average new car emissions and oil price, January 2002 -
April 2008 518
Figure 21.8 Trip mode, population and emissions in 57 high-income
cities, 1995-96 520
Figure 21.9 Mode share for journeys to work in Australian capital cities
1976-2006 521
Figure 22.1 Prices paid by Australian farmers, 1998-2007 533
Figure 22.2 Australian farmers terms of trade, 1998-2007 534
Figure 22.3 Non-combustion emissions for agriculture, forestry and
land-use change for the no-mitigation and 550 standard
technology scenarios 537
Figure 22.4 Change in emissions intensity over time in response to
carbon price, 550 standard technology scenario, 2006-2100 538
Figure 22.5 Contribution to Australia s agricultural emissions, by
subsector, 2005 544
Figure 22.6 Ratio of emissions permit costs to value of production,
by subsector, 2005 545
Figure 22.7 Australian real retail prices for meat, 1960-2006 546
Figure 22.8 Australian per capita consumption of meat, 1960-2006 547
Figure 22.9 Per capita area of forested and wooded land, 2005 555
Figure 22.10 Carbon removal potential for environmental plantings
(tonnes CO2-e per ha per year) 555
Figure 23.1 Australia s emissions in the 550 backstop scenario
(global entitlement, net of trading) 571
Figure 23.2 Sources of mitigation under the 550 backstop scenario 572
Figure 23.3 Direct emissions per million dollars value added, 2005 573
Figure 23.4 Direct and indirect emissions per million dollars value
added, mining and manufacturing, 2005 573
Figure 23.5 Emissions sources (not including forestry) in the 550 backstop
technology scenario 574
Figure 23.6 Australia s emissions in the 450 backstop technology
scenario (global entitlement, net of trading) 575
Figure 23.7 Total emissions for the no-mitigation, 450 and 550 backstop
scenarios 576
Figure 23.8 Sources of mitigation under the 450 backstop technology scenario 577
Figure 23.9 Emissions sources (not including forestry) in the
450 backstop technology scenario 577
Tables
Table 2.1 Sources of greenhouse gases 31
Table 2.2 Estimates of the amount of carbon stored in different
sinks in 1750 and how they have changed 36
Table 3.1 Growth in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, GDP and energy 56
Table 3.2 Shares of total greenhouse gas emissions by country/region
in the Garnaut-Treasury reference case 65
Table 3.3 Time to exhaustion of current estimates of reserves and
reserve base for various metals and minerals, and fossil fuels 71
Table 4.1 Summary of extreme climate responses, high-consequence
outcomes and ranges for tipping points for the three emissions
cases by 2100 102
Table 5.1 Projected changes to statewide annual average rainfall, best-
estimate outcome in a no-mitigation case (per cent change
relative to 1990) 115
Table 5.2 Projected changes to statewide average rainfall, dry and
wet outcomes in a no-mitigation case (per cent change
relative to 1990) 116
Table 5.3 Projected increases in days over 35°C for all capital cities
under a no-mitigation case 117
Table 5.4 Projected per cent increases in the number of days with
very high and extreme fire weather for selected years 118
Table 6.1 Sectors and areas considered in this chapter 122
Table 6.2 Climate cases considered by the Review 124
Table 6.3 Differences between probable unmitigated and mitigated
futures at 2100—median of probability distributions 127
Table 6.4 Decline in value of irrigated agricultural production in the
Murray-Darling Basin out to 2100 from a world with no
human-induced climate change 130
Table 6.5 Percentage cumulative yield change from 1990 for Australian
wheat under four climate cases 132
Table 6.6 Magnitude of impacts to water supply infrastructure in
major cities under four climate cases 136
Table 6.7 Infrastructure impacts criteria 137
Table 6.8 Magnitude of impacts on buildings in coastal settlements
under four climate cases 138
Table 6.9 Change in likely temperature-related deaths due to
climate change 140
Table 7.1 Comparison of the highest per capita emissions among OECD
countries (tonnes per person per year) 154
Table 7.2 Agricultural emissions and land use, land-use change and
forestry emissions, by commodity and economic sector, 2005 168
Table 9.1 2020, 2050 and 2100 global emissions changes for the
two global mitigation scenarios, relative to 2001 (per cent) 205
Table 9.2 Emissions entitlement allocations for 2020 and 2050
relative to 2000-01 and Kyoto/2012 (per cent) 209
Table 9.3 Emissions entitlement allocations expressed in per
capita terms in 2020 and 2050 relative to 2000-01 and
Kyoto/2012 (per cent) 210
Table 11.2 Assessing the market impacts of climate change 254
Table 11.3 Net present cost of the 450 ppm and 550 ppm scenarios
(in terms of no-mitigation GNP) and the 450 premium1 to
2050 and 2100 270
Table 12.1 Summary of interim targets in 2020 (per cent) 283
Table 12.2 Reductions in emissions entitlements by 2050 for
policy scenarios (per cent) 283
Table 12.3 Modelling results in 2020 for policy scenarios 296
Table 13.1 Attributes of mitigation and adaptation shocks 303
Table 14.1 Governance of an Australian emissions trading scheme 352
Table 14.2 Interaction between the emissions trading scheme
and the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target 355
Table 14.3 Overview of the proposed emissions trading scheme design 358
Table 17.1 Four kinds of principal-agent problems 414
Table 18.1 Brief assessment of two technology categories against
criteria for national strategic interest 432
Table 18.2 Research and development programs in Australia
targeting low-emissions technologies 435
Table 18.3 Mechanisms for directly subsidising positive externalities in
demonstration and commercialisation 437
Table 18.4 Estimates of private and social rates of return to private
research and development spending 441
Table 21.1 Transport sectors 504
Table 22.1 Vulnerability of Australia s agricultural industry to the
biophysical impacts of climate change, by subsector 535
Table 22.2 Potential for emissions per annum reduction and/or removal
from Australia s agriculture, forestry and other land use sectors 542
Table 22.3 Impact of emissions permit prices on cost of meat production 546
Table 22.4 Technical potential for CO2 removal by soil—selected estimates 549
Table 22.5 Estimated oil yield per ha for biodiesel production 553
Table 22.6 Area of selected land uses in Australia 554
Table 23.1 Total after-tax per capita income (2005 dollars) 569
Table 23.2 Annual average growth rates for GNP and GDP under
the no-mitigation, 550 and 450 scenarios with backstop
technology (Type 1 and Type 2 benefits of mitigation) (per cent) 570
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xiv
Terms of reference xvi
Introduction xvii
Synopsis of key points xxxv
1 A decision-making framework 1
1.1 The costs of mitigation 3
1.2 Risk and uncertainty 7
1.3 Four types of benefits from mitigation 9
1.4 How effective adaptation reduces the costs of climate
change 13
1.5 Measuring the benefits of mitigation against the costs 14
1.6 A graphical representation of the benefits and costs 15
1.7 Valuing the future relative to the present 18
2 Understanding climate science 23
2.1 The earth's atmosphere 24
2.2 Understanding climate change 27
2.3 Linking emissions and climate change 30
2.4 The task of global mitigation 42
3 Emissions in the Platinum Age 53
3.1 Greenhouse gas emissions by source and country 53
3.2 Recent trends in carbon dioxide emissions from
fossil fuels 55
3.3 Existing emissions projections 58
3.4 The Review's no-mitigation projections: methodology
and assumptions 59
3.5 Results from the Review's projections and comparisons
with existing projections 62
3.6 The impact of high energy prices 67
3.7 Resource limits 69
4 Projecting global climate change 75
4.1 How has the climate changed? 75
4.2 Understanding climate change projections 83
4.3 Projected climate change for the three emissions cases 87
4.4 Assessing the climate risk 96
5 Projecting Australian climate change 105
5.1 Attributing climate change to humans 106
5.2 How has the climate changed in Australia? 106
5.3 Projected climate change in Australia 113
6 Climate change impacts on Australia 121
6.1 Understanding Australia's vulnerability to
climate change 124
6.2 Australia without global mitigation 125
6.3 Direct impacts of climate change on Australia 128
6.4 Indirect impacts of climate change on Australia 145
7 Australia's emissions in a global context 153
7.1 Australia's emissions profile and international
comparisons 153
7.2 Emissions profiles of Australian industries 165
8 Assessing the international response 173
8.1 The evolving international framework for addressing
climate change 174
8.2 National commitments and policies to mitigate climate
change 177
8.3 Assessment of progress under the Kyoto Protocol 180
8.4 Projections given the current trajectory of
mitigation effort 183
8.5 Accelerating progress 184
9 Towards global agreement 191
9.1 Agreeing on a global goal 192
9.2 What form should national commitments take? 195
9.3 A graduated approach to national commitments 198
9.4 Principles for allocating emissions entitlements
across countries 200
9.5 Modelling a per capita approach to the allocation of
emissions entitlements 205
9.6 Reaching agreement on 550 or 450: is it possible? 212
10 Deepening global collaboration 217
10.1 International public funding for mitigation 218
10.2 International public funding for adaptation 223
10.3 Promoting collaborative research to assist developing
countries 226
10.4 International trade in emissions rights 227
10.5 Price-based sectoral agreements for the trade-exposed,
emissions-intensive sectors 230
10.6 Climate change and trade policy 232
10.7 International aviation and shipping 234
10.8 Land-use change and forestry 235
10.9 Enforcement mechanisms 239
11 Costing climate change and its avoidance 245
11.1 The three global scenarios 246
11.2 Comparing the costs of climate change and mitigation 247
11.3 Modelling mitigation 250
11.4 The decision to mitigate 252
11.5 How much mitigation? 268
12 Targets and trajectories 277
12.1 Determining our conditional and unconditional
targets 278
12.2 The benefits of global cooperation 285
12.3 Solving- a diabolical problem in stages 287
12.4 Hastening progress towards greater emissions
reductions 289
12.5 Moving from a 550 to a 450 goal 290
12.6 Does Australia matter for global mitigation? 291
12.7 Interim targets 294
12.8 Implications for an Australian emissions
trading scheme 298
13 An Australian policy framework 299
13.1 Confronting uncertainty: the policy challenges of
climate change 300
13.2 Avoiding the greatest market failure ever seen 307
13.3 Bungling Australia's emissions trading scheme 314
14 An Australian emissions trading scheme 321
14.1 The framework to guide efficient scheme design 322
14.2 Elemental design features 324
14.3 Releasing permits into the market 330
14.4 Lowering the costs of meeting targets 334
14.5 Addressing the distortion faced by trade-exposed,
emissions-intensive industries 341
14.6 Transition period: Australia's emissions trading
scheme to the end of 2012 350
14.7 Governance: institutional arrangements 351
14.8 Addressing the relationships between an
emissions trading scheme and other policies 353
14.9 Summary of design features of an Australian
emissions trading scheme 357
vm
15 Adaptation and mitigation measures for Australia 363
15.1 Information and understanding 365
15.2 The role of markets and market-based policies 370
15.3 Scaling the challenges: five examples 376
16 Sharing the burden in Australia 385
16.1 Effects of mitigation policy in the short term 386
16.2 A framework for government intervention 393
16.3 Long-term impacts and structural change 400
1 7 Information barriers to known technologies 403
17.1 The impact of information and agency barriers 404
17.2 Information barriers 406
17.3 Principal-agent problems 413
17.4 Minimum performance standards 415
18 The innovation challenge 423
18.1 What is innovation? 424
18.2 Ensuring optimal levels of early research 428
18.3 Rewarding early movers 433
18.4 Overcoming barriers from technological lock-in 441
19 Network infrastructure 445
19.1 The transmission of electricity 446
19.2 The distribution of electricity 451
19.3 Gas transmission infrastructure 453
19.4 The transportation of carbon dioxide 453
19.5 The transport of passengers and freight 455
19.6 Water supply infrastructure 458
19.7 The planning of urban settlements 460
20 Transforming energy 467
20.1 The energy sector today 468
20.2 Drivers of the transformation 472
20.3 The transformation 478
20.4 Modelling results for the energy sector 482
20.5 Major economic impacts 490
20.6 Risks to the transformation 499
21 Transforming transport 503
21.1 The role of transport and its current structure 504
21.2 Causes of the transformation 505
21.3 Economic modelling results: a possible future? 511
21.4 The path to transformation: a picture of future
transport 517
21.5 Fostering the transformation 526
22 Transforming rural land use 531
22.1 Drivers of a transformation towards lower emissions 532
22.2 Economic modelling results: a possible future? 537
22.3 An alternative future 542
22.4 Barriers and limits to a low-emissions future 558
23 Towards a low-emissions economy 565
23.1 The dynamics of economic adjustment with global
mitigation 566
23.2 The economy to and at 550 ppm 570
23.3 The difference between 550 and 450 575
23.4 Australia in the low-emissions world energy
economy 576
23.5 The downside risks 579
23.6 The upside in technology assumptions 580
23.7 The importance of flexible global and national
markets 584
23.8 The importance of education and training 586
23.9 Global mitigation and ongoing prosperity 587
23.10 Australia in a successful world of change 588
24 Fateful decisions 591
List of figures and tables 599
List of shortened forms 606
Glossary 608
Index 617
List of figures and tables
Figures
Figure 1.1 The risk-uncertainty spectrum 8
Figure 1.2 A probability distribution 8
Figure 1.3 The four types of climate change impacts 10
Figure 1.4 Utility with and without mitigation 16
Figure 1.5 Utility under a more ambitious level of mitigation 16
Figure 1.6 Utility with more climate change impacts taken into account 17
Figure 2.1 Trends in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide since 1750 26
Figure 2.2 A stylised model of the natural greenhouse effect and other
influences on the energy balance of the climate system 28
Figure 2.3 Contribution of human and natural factors to warming since 1750 30
Figure 2.4 Steps in the causal chain of greenhouse gas emissions leading
to climate change 31
Figure 2.5 Effect on extremes of temperature from an increase in mean
temperature, an increase in variance, and an increase in both
mean temperature and variance 41
Figure 2.6 Inertia in the climate system 42
Figure 2.7 Response of different carbon sinks to the rate of emissions
over time 44
Figure 2.8 Different pathways of emissions reductions over time to
achieve the same concentration target 45
Figure 2.9 Temperature outcomes of varying levels of overshooting 46
Figure 2.10 Emissions pathways required to achieve a low concentration
target following an overshoot 47
Figure 3.1 The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters: total emissions and
cumulative share (%) of global emissions, c. 2004 54
Figure 3.2 The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters: per capita emissions
including and excluding emissions from land-use change and
forestry, c. 2004 55
Figure 3.3 CO2 emissions/GDP, energy/GDP and CO2 emissions/energy
for the world, OECD and non-OECD, 1971-2005 (1971 = 1) 57
Figure 3.4 Energy intensities of GDP for China and other developing
countries, 1970-2005 57
Figure 3.5 The reference case: global population, GDP and GDP
per capita, 2001 to 2100 59
Figure 3.6 The reference case: global population, GDP, GDP per capita,
and CO2-e emissions, 2000 to 2100—average growth rates
by decade 60
Figure 3.7 Shares in global output of various countries and regions,
2001 to 2100, under the reference case 61
Figure 3.8 Global CO2 emissions growth rates from fossil fuels and
industrial processes to 2030: a comparison of Garnaut
Review no-mitigation projections with SRES and post-SRES
scenarios and historical data 62
Figure 3.9 Global greenhouse gas emissions growth rates to 2030: a comparison
of Garnaut Review no-mitigation projections, SRES and post-SRES
scenarios, and historical data 63
Figure 3.10 Global greenhouse gas emissions to 2100: a comparison of Garnaut
Review no-mitigation projections and various SRES scenarios 64
Figure 3.11 China total energy consumption, levels and growth, 1978 to 2006 66
Figure 3.12 Oil, gas and coal prices, 1970 to 2008 67
Figure 3.13 Global energy use and CO2 emissions, 1970 to 2007 68
Figure 4.1 Selected regional climate change observations 76
Figure 4.2 Average global air temperature anomalies, 1850-2005 78
Figure 4.3 Global average sea-level rise, 1870-2005 80
Figure 4.4 Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere for the three
emissions cases, 1990-2100 86
Figure 4.5 Global average temperature outcomes for three
emissions cases, 1990-2100 88
Figure 4.6 Spatial variation in temperature change in 2100 for the three
emissions cases 90
Figure 4.7 Temperature increases above 1990 levels for the three
emissions cases 92
Figure 4.8 Abrupt or rapid climate change showing the lack of
response until a threshold is reached 97
Figure 5.1 Australian annual average temperature anomalies, 1910-2007 107
Figure 5.2 Annual streamflows into Perth's dams (excluding Stirling and Samson
dams) 110
Figure 5.3 Best estimate (50th percentile) of Australian annual
temperature change at 2030, 2070 and 2100 under three emissions
cases 114
Figure 6.1 Vulnerability and its components 125
Figure 6.2 State and territory impacts of climate change by 2100 under the no-
mitigation case 126
Figure 7.1 Per capita greenhouse gas emissions 154
Figure 7.2 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 1990 and 2006 155
Figure 7.3 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector: 1990, 2006 and reference case
scenarios 156
Figure 7.4 Per capita emissions due to energy use, 2005 157
Figure 7.5 Factors underlying per capita energy emissions, 2005 157
Figure 7.6 Fuel mix contributing to total primary energy supply, 2005 158
Figure 7.7 Trends in average emissions intensity of primary energy supply,
Australia and OECD, 1971 -2005 159
Figure 7.8 Primary energy consumption in Australia, by sector, 2005-06 159
Figure 7.9 Per capita emissions due to electricity, 2005 160
Figure 7.10 Factors underlying per capita electricity emissions, 2005 160
Figure 7.11 Per capita emissions due to transport, 2005 161
Figure 7.12 Factors underlying per capita transport emissions 162
Figure 7.13 Per capita emissions due to agricultural production 163
Figure 7.14 Per capita area of forested and wooded land, 2005 164
Figure 7.15 Emissions attributable to Australian industry by sector, 2006 166
Figure 7.16 Emissions attributable to the Australian mining and
manufacturing industries, disaggregated by sector, 2005 167
Figure 7.17 Ratio of permit costs to value of production, 2005 169
Figure 7.18 Direct emissions intensity of Australia's agriculture industry
compared with selected OECD countries, 2006 170
Figure 8.1 Kyoto targets and 2005 emissions, relative to 1990 181
Figure 9.1 Different concentration goals: stabilisation, overshooting
and peaking 193
Figure 9.2 Different cumulative emissions from the same end-year target (y) 195
Figure 9.3 Emissions trajectories for the no-mitigation, 550 and
450 scenarios, 2000-2100 206
Figure 9.4 Per capita emissions entitlements for the 550 scenario,
2012-2050 208
Figure 9.5 Per capita emissions entitlements for the 450 scenario,
2012-2050 208
Figure 10.1 Energy research and development expenditure by the public
and private sectors in the United States 218
Figure 11.1 Australia's carbon prices under different mitigation scenarios
and technological assumptions 251
Figure 11.2 The modelled expected market costs (median case) for
Australia of unmitigated climate change, 2013 to 2100
(Type 1 costs only) 253
Figure 11.3 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points
lost or gained) due to gross mitigation costs under the
550 scenario strategy compared to no mitigation, and under
standard and enhanced technology assumptions, 2013-50 264
Figure 11.4 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points lost
or gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 550 scenario
compared to no mitigation, 2013-2100 265
Figure 11.5 Change in Australian sectoral growth rates (percentage points lost or
gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 550 scenario compared
to no mitigation, 2013-2100 266
Figure 11.6 A comparison of the modelled expected market costs for
Australia of unmitigated and mitigated climate change up to
2100 (Type 1 costs only) 267
Figure 11.7 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points
lost or gained) due to gross mitigation costs under the 450
compared to the 550 scenario and under standard and enhanced
technology assumptions, 2013-50 268
Figure 11.8 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points
lost or gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 450
compared to the 550 scenario, 2013-2100 269
Figure 12.1 Australian emissions reductions trajectories to 2050
(reduction in total emissions) 284
Figure 12.2 Australian emissions reductions trajectories to 2050
(per capita reduction) 284
Figure 15.1 Areas for further support and investment in the climate
change research system 366
Figure 15.2 Impact of climate change on probability loss distribution and
implications for risk capital requirements 372
Figure 16.1 How will an emissions price flow through the economy? 387
Figure 16.2 Expenditure on basic goods as a share of disposable income 388
Figure 17.1 Residential per capita electricity consumption in the
United States, California and as predicted for California 416
Figure 18.1 The innovation chain 425
Figure 18.2 Market failures along the innovation chain 426
Figure 19.1 Major sequestration sites and carbon dioxide sources
in Australia 454
Figure 20.1 Installed electricity generation capacity, 2005-06 469
Figure 20.2 Comparison of industrial electricity prices 470
Figure 20.3 Average electricity market prices, 1999-2008 471
Figure 20.4 International energy commodity prices, indexed to 1994 473
Figure 20.5 Australia's electricity demand 483
Figure 20.6 Electricity demand reduction in selected sectors, 550 scenario 484
Figure 20.7 Residential demand, 2005-2100 484
Figure 20.8 Australia's electricity technology shares, 550 scenario 485
Figure 20.9 Australia's electricity generation technology shares, 550
scenario with zero-leakage carbon capture and storage 486
Figure 20.10 Australia's electricity generation technology shares, 450 scenario 487
Figure 20.11 Electricity emissions intensity 487
Figure 20.12 Total wholesale electricity costs, with and without nuclear,
550 scenario 488
Figure 20.13 Technology mix under an enhanced technology scenario 489
Figure 20.14 Wholesale electricity prices, 2005-50 490
Figure 20.15 Electricity generated from coal 491
Figure 20.16 Generation capacity, 550 scenario 492
Figure 20.17 Generation capacity, 450 scenario 492
Figure 20.18 Carbon capture and storage scenarios 496
Figure 20.19 Projections for aluminium and alumina industries 497
Figure 20.20 Electricity from gas sources 498
Figure 21.1 Australian domestic transport emissions, 2006 505
Figure 21.2 Passenger travel per capita by various modes, 1970-71 to
2006-07 506
Figure 21.3 Emissions intensity of passenger modes, 2007 509
Figure 21.4 Projected emissions from the domestic transport sector with
standard technology assumptions, 2006-2100 512
Figure 21.5 Breakdown of transport sector emissions in the 550 standard
technology scenario, 2006-2100 513
Figure 21.6 Modelling of road transport fuel use in a 550 standard
technology scenario 514
Figure 21.7 Average new car emissions and oil price, January 2002 -
April 2008 518
Figure 21.8 Trip mode, population and emissions in 57 high-income
cities, 1995-96 520
Figure 21.9 Mode share for journeys to work in Australian capital cities
1976-2006 521
Figure 22.1 Prices paid by Australian farmers, 1998-2007 533
Figure 22.2 Australian farmers' terms of trade, 1998-2007 534
Figure 22.3 Non-combustion emissions for agriculture, forestry and
land-use change for the no-mitigation and 550 standard
technology scenarios 537
Figure 22.4 Change in emissions intensity over time in response to
carbon price, 550 standard technology scenario, 2006-2100 538
Figure 22.5 Contribution to Australia's agricultural emissions, by
subsector, 2005 544
Figure 22.6 Ratio of emissions permit costs to value of production,
by subsector, 2005 545
Figure 22.7 Australian real retail prices for meat, 1960-2006 546
Figure 22.8 Australian per capita consumption of meat, 1960-2006 547
Figure 22.9 Per capita area of forested and wooded land, 2005 555
Figure 22.10 Carbon removal potential for environmental plantings
(tonnes CO2-e per ha per year) 555
Figure 23.1 Australia's emissions in the 550 backstop scenario
(global entitlement, net of trading) 571
Figure 23.2 Sources of mitigation under the 550 backstop scenario 572
Figure 23.3 Direct emissions per million dollars value added, 2005 573
Figure 23.4 Direct and indirect emissions per million dollars value
added, mining and manufacturing, 2005 573
Figure 23.5 Emissions sources (not including forestry) in the 550 backstop
technology scenario 574
Figure 23.6 Australia's emissions in the 450 backstop technology
scenario (global entitlement, net of trading) 575
Figure 23.7 Total emissions for the no-mitigation, 450 and 550 backstop
scenarios 576
Figure 23.8 Sources of mitigation under the 450 backstop technology scenario 577
Figure 23.9 Emissions sources (not including forestry) in the
450 backstop technology scenario 577
Tables
Table 2.1 Sources of greenhouse gases 31
Table 2.2 Estimates of the amount of carbon stored in different
sinks in 1750 and how they have changed 36
Table 3.1 Growth in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, GDP and energy 56
Table 3.2 Shares of total greenhouse gas emissions by country/region
in the Garnaut-Treasury reference case 65
Table 3.3 Time to exhaustion of current estimates of reserves and
reserve base for various metals and minerals, and fossil fuels 71
Table 4.1 Summary of extreme climate responses, high-consequence
outcomes and ranges for tipping points for the three emissions
cases by 2100 102
Table 5.1 Projected changes to statewide annual average rainfall, best-
estimate outcome in a no-mitigation case (per cent change
relative to 1990) 115
Table 5.2 Projected changes to statewide average rainfall, dry and
wet outcomes in a no-mitigation case (per cent change
relative to 1990) 116
Table 5.3 Projected increases in days over 35°C for all capital cities
under a no-mitigation case 117
Table 5.4 Projected per cent increases in the number of days with
very high and extreme fire weather for selected years 118
Table 6.1 Sectors and areas considered in this chapter 122
Table 6.2 Climate cases considered by the Review 124
Table 6.3 Differences between probable unmitigated and mitigated
futures at 2100—median of probability distributions 127
Table 6.4 Decline in value of irrigated agricultural production in the
Murray-Darling Basin out to 2100 from a world with no
human-induced climate change 130
Table 6.5 Percentage cumulative yield change from 1990 for Australian
wheat under four climate cases 132
Table 6.6 Magnitude of impacts to water supply infrastructure in
major cities under four climate cases 136
Table 6.7 Infrastructure impacts criteria 137
Table 6.8 Magnitude of impacts on buildings in coastal settlements
under four climate cases 138
Table 6.9 Change in likely temperature-related deaths due to
climate change 140
Table 7.1 Comparison of the highest per capita emissions among OECD
countries (tonnes per person per year) 154
Table 7.2 Agricultural emissions and land use, land-use change and
forestry emissions, by commodity and economic sector, 2005 168
Table 9.1 2020, 2050 and 2100 global emissions changes for the
two global mitigation scenarios, relative to 2001 (per cent) 205
Table 9.2 Emissions entitlement allocations for 2020 and 2050
relative to 2000-01 and Kyoto/2012 (per cent) 209
Table 9.3 Emissions entitlement allocations expressed in per
capita terms in 2020 and 2050 relative to 2000-01 and
Kyoto/2012 (per cent) 210
Table 11.2 Assessing the market impacts of climate change 254
Table 11.3 Net present cost of the 450 ppm and 550 ppm scenarios
(in terms of no-mitigation GNP) and the '450 premium1 to
2050 and 2100 270
Table 12.1 Summary of interim targets in 2020 (per cent) 283
Table 12.2 Reductions in emissions entitlements by 2050 for
policy scenarios (per cent) 283
Table 12.3 Modelling results in 2020 for policy scenarios 296
Table 13.1 Attributes of mitigation and adaptation shocks 303
Table 14.1 Governance of an Australian emissions trading scheme 352
Table 14.2 Interaction between the emissions trading scheme
and the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target 355
Table 14.3 Overview of the proposed emissions trading scheme design 358
Table 17.1 Four kinds of principal-agent problems 414
Table 18.1 Brief assessment of two technology categories against
criteria for national strategic interest 432
Table 18.2 Research and development programs in Australia
targeting low-emissions technologies 435
Table 18.3 Mechanisms for directly subsidising positive externalities in
demonstration and commercialisation 437
Table 18.4 Estimates of private and social rates of return to private
research and development spending 441
Table 21.1 Transport sectors 504
Table 22.1 Vulnerability of Australia's agricultural industry to the
biophysical impacts of climate change, by subsector 535
Table 22.2 Potential for emissions per annum reduction and/or removal
from Australia's agriculture, forestry and other land use sectors 542
Table 22.3 Impact of emissions permit prices on cost of meat production 546
Table 22.4 Technical potential for CO2 removal by soil—selected estimates 549
Table 22.5 Estimated oil yield per ha for biodiesel production 553
Table 22.6 Area of selected land uses in Australia 554
Table 23.1 Total after-tax per capita income (2005 dollars) 569
Table 23.2 Annual average growth rates for GNP and GDP under
the no-mitigation, 550 and 450 scenarios with backstop
technology (Type 1 and Type 2 benefits of mitigation) (per cent) 570 |
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| author | Garnaut, Ross 1946- |
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| discipline | Allgemeines Soziologie Geographie |
| discipline_str_mv | Allgemeines Soziologie Geographie |
| edition | 1. publ. |
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| spelling | Garnaut, Ross 1946- Verfasser (DE-588)128900970 aut The Garnaut climate change review final report Ross Garnaut 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2008 XLV, 634 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Klimaänderung Nachhaltigkeit Climatic changes Economic aspects Australia Greenhouse gas mitigation Australia Sustainable development Australia Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf Klimaschutz (DE-588)7547705-1 gnd rswk-swf Australien Australien (DE-588)4003900-6 gnd rswk-swf Australien (DE-588)4003900-6 g Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s DE-604 Klimaschutz (DE-588)7547705-1 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016994771&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Garnaut, Ross 1946- The Garnaut climate change review final report Klimaänderung Nachhaltigkeit Climatic changes Economic aspects Australia Greenhouse gas mitigation Australia Sustainable development Australia Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Klimaschutz (DE-588)7547705-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)7547705-1 (DE-588)4003900-6 |
| title | The Garnaut climate change review final report |
| title_auth | The Garnaut climate change review final report |
| title_exact_search | The Garnaut climate change review final report |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The Garnaut climate change review final report |
| title_full | The Garnaut climate change review final report Ross Garnaut |
| title_fullStr | The Garnaut climate change review final report Ross Garnaut |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Garnaut climate change review final report Ross Garnaut |
| title_short | The Garnaut climate change review |
| title_sort | the garnaut climate change review final report |
| title_sub | final report |
| topic | Klimaänderung Nachhaltigkeit Climatic changes Economic aspects Australia Greenhouse gas mitigation Australia Sustainable development Australia Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Klimaschutz (DE-588)7547705-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Klimaänderung Nachhaltigkeit Climatic changes Economic aspects Australia Greenhouse gas mitigation Australia Sustainable development Australia Klimaschutz Australien |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016994771&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT garnautross thegarnautclimatechangereviewfinalreport |