The Austrian business cycle in the European context:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frankfurt am Main [u.a.]
Lang
2008
|
| Series: | Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien
25 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Volltext Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Literaturverz. S. 169 - 175 |
| Physical Description: | XIX, 207 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9783631576076 |
| DOI: | 10.3726/b13975 |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The Austrian business cycle in the European context |c Marcus Scheiblecker |
| 264 | 1 | |a Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] |b Lang |c 2008 | |
| 300 | |a XIX, 207 Seiten |b Diagramme | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien |v 25 | |
| 500 | |a Literaturverz. S. 169 - 175 | ||
| 648 | 4 | |a Geschichte 1900-2000 | |
| 648 | 7 | |a Geschichte 1976-2005 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Geschichte | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Business cycles |z Austria |x History |y 20th century | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Business cycles |z Austria |x History |y 21st century | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Business cycles |z European Union countries |x History | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Business cycles |z Germany |x History | |
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| 651 | 4 | |a Europäische Union. Mitgliedsstaaten | |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1824555769432899584 |
|---|---|
| adam_text |
XI
Table of contents
Zusammenfassung V
Abstract IX
List of figures and tables XV
List of abbreviations XVII
List of variables XIX
1. Research motivation and overview 1
2. The data 7
3. Methods of extracting business cycle
characteristics 13
3.1 Defining the business cycle /3
3.1.1 The classical business cycle definition 13
3.1.2 The deviation cycle definition 15
3.2 Isolation of business cycle frequencies /6
3.2.1 Outliers 18
3.2.2 Calendar effects 20
3.2.3 Seasonal variations 21
3.2.4 The trend 23
4. Identifying the business cycle 41
4.1 Construction of composite economic indices 42
4.1.1 The empirical NBER approach 42
4.1.2 Index models 44
4.2 Univariate determination of the business cycle 52
5. Analysing cyclical comovements 55
5. J Time domain statistics for analysing
comovements 55
XII
5.2 Frequency domain statistics for analysing
comovements 56
5.2.1 Coherence 57
5.2.2 Phase spectra and mean delay 58
5.2.3 Dynamic correlation 58
5.2.4 Cohesion 59
6. Dating the business cycle A1
6.1 The expert approaches 63
6.2 The Bry-Boschan routine 65
6.3 Hidden Markovian-switching processes 67
6.4 Threshold a utoregressive models 6?
7. Analysis of turning points 71
7.1 Mean and average leads and lags 77
7.2 Contingency tables for turning points 72
7.3 The intrinsic lead and tag classification of
dynamic factor models 74
7.4 Concordance indicator 74
7.5 Standard deviation of the cycle 75
7.6 Mean absolute deviation ?
7.7 Triangle approximation 76
8. Results 79
8.1 Isolation of business cycle frequencies ??
8.1.1 First-order differences 79
8.1.2 The HP filter 80
8.1.3 The BK filter 80
8.2 Determination of the reference business cycle 85
8.2.1 Ad-hoc selection of the business cycle
reference series 86
8.2.2 Determination of the business cycle by
a dynamic factor model approach 97
XIII
8.3 Dating the business cycle 104
8.3.1 Dating the business cycle in the ad-hoc
selection framework 104
8.3.2 Dating the business cycle in the
dynamic factor model framework 115
9. Comparing results with earlier studies on
the Austrian business cycle 125
9. / Comparing the results with the study by
Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
9.2 Comparing the results with the study by
Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
9.3 Comparing the results with the study by
Cheung - Westermann (1999) 130
9.4 Comparing the results with the study by
Brandner - Neusser (1992) 131
9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni -
Hallin -Lippi -Reichlin (2000) 132
9.6 Comparing the results with the study by
Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis -
Marcellino -Proietti (2004) 134
9.8 Comparing the results with the study by
Vijselaar - Albers (2001) 140
9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis -
Zhang (1999) 142
9.10 Comparing the results w/fh the study by
Dickerson - Gibson - Tsakalotos (1998) 142
9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis -
Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
9.12 Comparing the results with the dating
calendar of the CEPR 146
9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss
(1984) 151
XIV
9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen (1992) 153
9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
9.15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
9.15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
10. Concluding remarks 161
References 169
Annex 177
XV
List of figures and tables
Figure 1: Steps of business cycle analysis 6
Figure 2: Gain function of stationary transformations 31
Figure 3a: Gain function of a BK filter with a length of
6 quarters 38
Figure 3b: Gain function of a BK filter with a length of
12 quarters 39
Figure 4: Turning points in the classical and the cyclical
deviations approach 61
Figure 5: Austrian real GDP filtered 82
Figure 6: Baxter-King filtered GDP of Austria, Germany
and the euro area 83
Figure 7: HP 1600 filtered euro area GDP and Austrian
GVAex 87
Figure 8: BK filtered euro area GDP and Austrian GVA 88
Figure 9: Common component and BK-filtered GVAex
of Austria 101
Figure 10: Common component and BK-filtered GVAex
of Germany 102
Figure 11: Common component and BK-filtered NACE
G+H+l of Germany 103
Figure 12: Common component and BK-filtered NACE
J+K of Germany 104
XVI
Table 1: Contingency table for turning point analysis 73
Table 2: Differences in cross-correlations 92
Table 3: Business cycle turning points for Austria,
Germany and the euro area 138
Table 4: Business cycle turning points for Austria,
Germany and the euro area 149 |
| adam_txt |
XI
Table of contents
Zusammenfassung V
Abstract IX
List of figures and tables XV
List of abbreviations XVII
List of variables XIX
1. Research motivation and overview 1
2. The data 7
3. Methods of extracting business cycle
characteristics 13
3.1 Defining the business cycle /3
3.1.1 The classical business cycle definition 13
3.1.2 The deviation cycle definition 15
3.2 Isolation of business cycle frequencies /6
3.2.1 Outliers 18
3.2.2 Calendar effects 20
3.2.3 Seasonal variations 21
3.2.4 The trend 23
4. Identifying the business cycle 41
4.1 Construction of composite economic indices 42
4.1.1 The empirical NBER approach 42
4.1.2 Index models 44
4.2 Univariate determination of the business cycle 52
5. Analysing cyclical comovements 55
5. J Time domain statistics for analysing
comovements 55
XII
5.2 Frequency domain statistics for analysing
comovements 56
5.2.1 Coherence 57
5.2.2 Phase spectra and mean delay 58
5.2.3 Dynamic correlation 58
5.2.4 Cohesion 59
6. Dating the business cycle A1
6.1 The expert approaches 63
6.2 The Bry-Boschan routine 65
6.3 Hidden Markovian-switching processes 67
6.4 Threshold a utoregressive models 6?
7. Analysis of turning points 71
7.1 Mean and average leads and lags 77
7.2 Contingency tables for turning points 72
7.3 The intrinsic lead and tag classification of
dynamic factor models 74
7.4 Concordance indicator 74
7.5 Standard deviation of the cycle 75
7.6 Mean absolute deviation ?
7.7 Triangle approximation 76
8. Results 79
8.1 Isolation of business cycle frequencies ??
8.1.1 First-order differences 79
8.1.2 The HP filter 80
8.1.3 The BK filter 80
8.2 Determination of the reference business cycle 85
8.2.1 Ad-hoc selection of the business cycle
reference series 86
8.2.2 Determination of the business cycle by
a dynamic factor model approach 97
XIII
8.3 Dating the business cycle 104
8.3.1 Dating the business cycle in the ad-hoc
selection framework 104
8.3.2 Dating the business cycle in the
dynamic factor model framework 115
9. Comparing results with earlier studies on
the Austrian business cycle 125
9. / Comparing the results with the study by
Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
9.2 Comparing the results with the study by
Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
9.3 Comparing the results with the study by
Cheung - Westermann (1999) 130
9.4 Comparing the results with the study by
Brandner - Neusser (1992) 131
9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni -
Hallin -Lippi -Reichlin (2000) 132
9.6 Comparing the results with the study by
Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis -
Marcellino -Proietti (2004) 134
9.8 Comparing the results with the study by
Vijselaar - Albers (2001) 140
9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis -
Zhang (1999) 142
9.10 Comparing the results w/fh the study by
Dickerson - Gibson - Tsakalotos (1998) 142
9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis -
Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
9.12 Comparing the results with the dating
calendar of the CEPR 146
9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss
(1984) 151
XIV
9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen (1992) 153
9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
9.15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
9.15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
10. Concluding remarks 161
References 169
Annex 177
XV
List of figures and tables
Figure 1: Steps of business cycle analysis 6
Figure 2: Gain function of stationary transformations 31
Figure 3a: Gain function of a BK filter with a length of
6 quarters 38
Figure 3b: Gain function of a BK filter with a length of
12 quarters 39
Figure 4: Turning points in the classical and the cyclical
deviations approach 61
Figure 5: Austrian real GDP filtered 82
Figure 6: Baxter-King filtered GDP of Austria, Germany
and the euro area 83
Figure 7: HP 1600 filtered euro area GDP and Austrian
GVAex 87
Figure 8: BK filtered euro area GDP and Austrian GVA 88
Figure 9: Common component and BK-filtered GVAex
of Austria 101
Figure 10: Common component and BK-filtered GVAex
of Germany 102
Figure 11: Common component and BK-filtered NACE
G+H+l of Germany 103
Figure 12: Common component and BK-filtered NACE
J+K of Germany 104
XVI
Table 1: Contingency table for turning point analysis 73
Table 2: Differences in cross-correlations 92
Table 3: Business cycle turning points for Austria,
Germany and the euro area 138
Table 4: Business cycle turning points for Austria,
Germany and the euro area 149 |
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| author | Scheiblecker, Marcus 1967- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)136189733 |
| author_facet | Scheiblecker, Marcus 1967- |
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| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV035129341 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HB3787 |
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| callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
| collection | ZDB-94-OAB ebook |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)244768369 (DE-599)DNB989362000 |
| dewey-full | 338.542094360904 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
| dewey-raw | 338.542094360904 |
| dewey-search | 338.542094360904 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.542094360904 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3726/b13975 |
| era | Geschichte 1900-2000 Geschichte 1976-2005 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1900-2000 Geschichte 1976-2005 |
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| geographic | Deutschland Europäische Union. Mitgliedsstaaten Österreich Österreich (DE-588)4043271-3 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Deutschland Europäische Union. Mitgliedsstaaten Österreich |
| id | DE-604.BV035129341 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T22:24:07Z |
| indexdate | 2025-02-20T07:12:56Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783631576076 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016796870 |
| oclc_num | 244768369 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-12 DE-210 DE-521 DE-1102 DE-1046 DE-1028 DE-1050 DE-573 DE-M347 DE-92 DE-1051 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-859 DE-860 DE-1049 DE-861 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-Y3 DE-255 DE-Y7 DE-Y2 DE-70 DE-2174 DE-127 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-20 DE-706 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-210 DE-521 DE-1102 DE-1046 DE-1028 DE-1050 DE-573 DE-M347 DE-92 DE-1051 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-859 DE-860 DE-1049 DE-861 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-Y3 DE-255 DE-Y7 DE-Y2 DE-70 DE-2174 DE-127 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-20 DE-706 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 |
| physical | XIX, 207 Seiten Diagramme |
| psigel | ZDB-94-OAB ebook |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | Lang |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien |
| series2 | Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien |
| spellingShingle | Scheiblecker, Marcus 1967- The Austrian business cycle in the European context Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien Geschichte Business cycles Austria History 20th century Business cycles Austria History 21st century Business cycles European Union countries History Business cycles Germany History Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4032134-4 (DE-588)4043271-3 |
| title | The Austrian business cycle in the European context |
| title_auth | The Austrian business cycle in the European context |
| title_exact_search | The Austrian business cycle in the European context |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The Austrian business cycle in the European context |
| title_full | The Austrian business cycle in the European context Marcus Scheiblecker |
| title_fullStr | The Austrian business cycle in the European context Marcus Scheiblecker |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Austrian business cycle in the European context Marcus Scheiblecker |
| title_short | The Austrian business cycle in the European context |
| title_sort | the austrian business cycle in the european context |
| topic | Geschichte Business cycles Austria History 20th century Business cycles Austria History 21st century Business cycles European Union countries History Business cycles Germany History Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Geschichte Business cycles Austria History 20th century Business cycles Austria History 21st century Business cycles European Union countries History Business cycles Germany History Konjunkturzyklus Deutschland Europäische Union. Mitgliedsstaaten Österreich |
| url | https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/39032 https://doi.org/10.3726/b13975 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016796870&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV019734490 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT scheibleckermarcus theaustrianbusinesscycleintheeuropeancontext |