Simulating an ageing population: a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden
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| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Bingley
Emerald
2008
|
| Edition: | 1. ed. |
| Series: | Contributions to economic analysis
285 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Physical Description: | xxxiii, 429 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm |
| ISBN: | 9780444532534 0444532536 |
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MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Simulating an ageing population |b a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden |c Anders Klevmarken, Björn Lindgren [eds.] |
| 250 | |a 1. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Bingley |b Emerald |c 2008 | |
| 300 | |a xxxiii, 429 S. |b graph. Darst. |c 24 cm | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a Contributions to economic analysis |v 285 | |
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Population aging / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Social prediction / Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Older people / Health and hygiene / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Older people |x Health and hygiene |x Economic aspects |z Sweden |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population aging |x Economic aspects |z Sweden |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Social prediction |x Mathematical models | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TO THE SERIES XIII PREFACE XV LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS
XIX LIST OF FIGURES XXI LIST OF TABLES XXVII CHAPTER 1 AN AGEING ECONOMY
IN AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE 1 ANDERS KLEVMARKEN AND BJOM LINDGREN 1.
BACKGROUND 1 2. THE PROJECT OLD BABY-BOOMERS 12 3. THEORY AND PREVIOUS
EMPIRICAL RESULTS 15 3.1. HEALTH 15 3.2. SICKNESS ABSENCE 16 3.3.
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE LABOR MARKET 17 3.4. GEOGRAPHICAL MOBILITY AND
TENURE CHOICE 20 3.5. INCOMES AND WEALTH OF THE ELDERLY 22 3.6.
UTILIZATION OF HEALTH-AND SOCIAL CARE 23 4. A DYNAMIC MICRO-SIMULATION
MODEL 24 REFERENCES 25 CHAPTER 2 DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION FOR POLICY
ANALYSIS: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS 31 ANDERS KLEVMARKEN 1. WHAT IS
MICROSIMULATION? 31 2. MODELING FOR MICROSIMULATION 34 3. DATA PROBLEMS
37 VI CONTENTS 4. MACRO CHOCKS, FEEDBACK, AND MARKETS IN MICROSIMULATION
MODELS 39 5. ESTIMATION 41 6. MODEL VALIDATION 47 7. END REMARK 49
REFERENCES 50 CHAPTER 3 SESIM: A SWEDISH MICRO-SIMULATION MODEL 55
LENNART FLOOD 1. INTRODUCTION 55 2. THE STRUCTURE OF SESIM 55 3. DATA
SOURCES 60 3.1. LINDA: A PANEL DATABASE 60 3.2. OTHER DATA SOURCES 61 4.
INITIAL ADJUSTMENTS 61 4.1. ADJUSTMENTS TO A MEANINGFUL HOUSEHOLD
DEFINITION 61 4.2. ADDING EMIGRANTS WITH PENSION RIGHTS 63 5. SESIM: A
STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL 64 6. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT EXOGENOUS VARIABLES
67 REFERENCES 68 APPENDIX 68 CHAPTER 4 CHANGES IN THE HEALTH STATUS OF
THE POPULATION 85 KRISTIAN BOLIN, MATIAS EKLOF, SO REN HOJGDRD AND BJORN
LINDGREN 1. HEALTH TRENDS IN SWEDEN 86 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND OUR
CHOICE OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 90 3. MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF HEALTH
92 4. OUR HEALTH MEASURE 92 4.1. OPTIONS . 92 4.2. OUR MEASURE OF
HEALTH 93 5. DATA 95 5.1. DEPENDENT VARIABLES 96 5.2, EXPLANATORY
VARIABLES 96 6. ESTIMATION STRATEGY 97 7. RESULTS 99 8. SIMULATIONS 102
8.1. CROSS-SECTIONAL AGE-HEALTH PROFILES 103 8.2. COHORT AGE-HEALTH
PROFILES 103 8.3. POPULATION-SHARES TIME SERIES 105 CONTENTS VII
CONCLUSION 107 REFERENCES 107 APPENDIX A. ILLUSTRATION OF THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THE HEALTH INDEX SUGGESTED BY STATISTICS SWEDEN 110
APPENDIX B. THE ESTIMATOR 111 CHAPTER 5 SICKNESS ABSENCE FROM WORK 115
KRISTIAN BOLIN, SO REN HOJGDRD AND BJORN LINDGREN 1. BACKGROUND 115 2.
PREVIOUS EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 116 3. THE SWEDISH SICKNESS-BENEFITS SYSTEM
122 4. DATA 128 4.1. DEPENDENT VARIABLE 129 4.2. EXPLANATORY VARIABLES
129 5. EMPIRICAL MODEL 130 5.1. ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION 130 6. RESULTS
130 7. SIMULATIONS 132 7.1. CROSS-SECTIONAL AGE PROFILES OF AVERAGE
NUMBER OF DAYS OF SICK-LEAVE 132 7.2. COHORT AGE-HEALTH PROFILES 133
7.3. SIMULATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS OF SICKNESS
ABSENCE FOR THE 50*64 POPULATION 133 7.4. SIMULATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TOTAL NUMBER OF DAYS OF SICKNESS ABSENCE FOR THE 20-64 POPULATION 135 8.
CONCLUSION 135 REFERENCES 136 APPENDIX A. AN ALGORITHM FOR BOOTSTRAP
CALCULATION OF MARGINAL EFFECTS AND P-VALUES IN A NEGATIVE BINOMIAL
MODEL WITH OVER DISPERSION, HETEROGENEITY, AND SAMPLE SELECTION 138
CHAPTER 6 EARLY RETIREMENT 143 KRISTIAN BOLIN, MATIAS EKLOF, DANIEL
HALLBERG, SO REN HOJGDRD AND BJORN LINDGREN 1. DISABILITY INSURANCE IN
SWEDEN 145 2. OLD AGE PENSION IN SWEDEN 147 2.1. PUBLIC OLD AGE PENSION
147 2.2. COLLECTIVELY AGREED OCCUPATIONAL PENSION 148 2.3.
EARLY-RETIREMENT PENSION OFFERS 151 3. STYLIZED FACTS 152 VIII CONTENTS
4. MODELS OF EARLY RETIREMENT 157 4.1. EARLY RETIREMENT VIA DISABILITY
INSURANCE 159 4.2. EARLY RETIREMENT VIA OLD AGE PENSION 160 5. DATA 162
5.1. DATA FOR EARLY RETIREMENT VIA DISABILITY INSURANCE 162 5.2. DATA
FOR EARLY RETIREMENT VIA OLD AGE PENSION 164 6. EMPIRICAL SPECIFICATIONS
169 7. RESULTS 171 8. SIMULATIONS 173 8.1. BASIC SCENARIO 176 8.2.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 1: NO EARLY-RETIREMENT OFFERS 182 8.3. ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO 2: DELAYED RETIREMENT 184 9. CONCLUSIONS 189 REFERENCES 191
APPENDIX 195 CHAPTER 7 GEOGRAPHICAL MOBILITY AND TENURE CHOICE 201 URBAN
FRANSSON AND MATIAS EKLOF 1. URBANIZATION AND MIGRATION 201 1.1.
REGIONAL REDISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION 202 1.2. URBAN CONCENTRATION
203 2. HOUSING 205 2.1. THE HOUSING MARKET IN SWEDEN 205 3. THE SWEDISH
HOUSING POLICY 209 3.1. SUBSIDIES AND ALLOWANCES 209 3.2. HOUSING POLICY
IN THE 1990S 209 3.3. CURRENT RENT REGULATION 211 4. HOUSING AND
MOBILITY OF THE ELDERLY 211 4.1. INTRODUCTION 211 4.2. ELDERLY HOUSING
AND TENURE 212 5. MODELING MIGRATION AND TENURE CHOICE 215 5.1. MODEL
OVERVIEW 215 5.2. DATA 217 5.3. ANALYZING MIGRATION BEHAVIOR 219 6.
RESULT FROM THE SIMULATIONS 236 7. CONCLUSIONS 243 REFERENCES 243
CHAPTER 8 THE INCOME OF THE BABY BOOMERS 249 LENNART FLOOD, ANDERS
KLEVMARKEN AND ANDREEA MITRUT 1. INTRODUCTION 249 2. SWEDEN IN AN
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON 250 CONTENTS IX 3. THE SWEDISH EXPERIENCE 254
3.1. CHANGES IN INCOME 1975-2003 254 4. INCOME GENERATION IN SESIM 261
4.1. INCOME FROM EARNINGS 261 4.2. PENSION INCOME AND OTHER BENEFITS 262
4.3. INCOME FROM CAPITAL 264 5. RETIREMENT INCOME OF THE BABY BOOMERS
275 5.1. CONCEPTS AND MEASURES 275 5.2. REPLACEMENT RATES FOR THE BABY
BOOMERS 276 5.3. RELATIVE INCOME OF THE BABY BOOMERS 281 5.4. INCOME
DISTRIBUTION AND POVERTY 284 6. CONCLUSIONS 287 REFERENCES 287 APPENDIX
A. COMPARING DIFFERENT MEASURES OF REPLACEMENT RATES 288 CHAPTER 9 THE
DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH 293 LENNART FLOOD AND ANDERS KLEVMARKEN 1. THE
SWEDISH DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON 294 2. THE
STRUCTURE OF THE WEALTH MODULE IN SESIM 298 3. MODELING FINANCIAL WEALTH
300 3.1. TAX-DEFERRED PENSION SAVINGS 303 4. HOUSEHOLD REAL WEALTH 307
5. MODELS OF DEBTS 310 6. SIMULATING THE FUTURE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF
WEALTH 315 7. CONCLUSIONS 322 REFERENCES 323 CHAPTER 10 UTILIZATION OF
INPATIENT CARE 325 KRISTIAN BOLIN, SOREN HOJGDRD AND BJORN LINDGREN 1.
THE SWEDISH HEALTH CARE SYSTEM 325 1.1. GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS 325 1.2.
INPATIENT CARE 328 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK, PREVIOUS EMPIRICAL STUDIES,
AND OUR CHOICE OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 330 3. DATA 331 3.1. DEPENDENT
VARIABLES 333 3.2. EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 333 4. MODELS 334 5. RESULTS
334 X CONTENTS 6. SIMULATIONS 336 6.1. CROSS-SECTIONAL AGE PROFILES OF
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS OF INPATIENT CARE 336 6.2. COHORT AGE PROFILES OF
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS OF INPATIENT CARE 336 6.3. SIMULATED DEVELOPMENT
OF AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS OF INPATIENT CARE FOR THE POPULATION 338 6.4.
SIMULATED DEVELOPMENT OF TOTAL NUMBER OF DAYS OF INPATIENT CARE FOR THE
POPULATION 338 7. CONCLUSION 340 REFERENCES 341 CHAPTER 11 THE DEMAND
FOR OLD AGE CARE 343 URBAN FRANSSON, DANIEL HALLBERG AND MARTEN
LAGERGREN 1. CARE FOR ELDERLY PERSONS IN SWEDEN 343 1.1. THE SWEDISH
SYSTEM OF PUBLIC ELDERLY CARE 343 1.2. RANGE OF SERVICES FOR ELDERLY
PERSONS 344 1.3. TOTAL EXPENDITURE AND FUNDING 345 1.4. NON-PUBLIC AND
INFORMAL CARE OF THE ELDERLY 346 2. CLOSENESS TO KIN 347 2.1. RELOCATION
AMONG CHILDREN AND PARENTS, AND THE PROXIMITY OF PARENTS TO ADULT
CHILDREN 348 2.2. METHODS, DATA, AND VARIABLES 350 2.3. RESULTS OF
REGRESSION ANALYSIS 353 2.4. SIMULATION RESULTS 356 3. A MODEL OF THE
DEMAND FOR OLD AGE CARE AND MORTALITY: SPECIFICATION, ESTIMATION,
INTERPRETATION, AND SIMULATIONS 359 3.1. INTRODUCTION 359 3.2. DATA 361
3.3. METHODOLOGY 365 3.4. MULTINOMIAL OAC CHOICE ANALYSIS 365 3.5.
MORTALITY ANALYSIS 369 3.6. SIMULATION 373 3.7. CONCLUSIONS 377
REFERENCES 380 APPENDIX 384 CHAPTER 12 SIMULATING THE FUTURE OF THE
ELDERLY 389 ANDERS KLEVMARKEN 1. IMPROVED HEALTH PROGRESSION WITH AND
WITHOUT DECREASED DEATH RISKS 390 CONTENTS XI 2. INCREASED IMMIGRATION
396 3. DELAYED RETIREMENT 399 4. CHANGES IN GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS AND IN
UNEMPLOYMENT 401 5. THE INCOMES AND WEALTH OF PEOPLE IN OLD-AGE CARE 403
CHAPTER 13 EVALUATION AND CONCLUSIONS 409 ANDERS KLEVMARKEN 1. SUMMARY
OF FINDINGS 409 2. METHODOLOGY ISSUES 415 REFERENCES 419 SUBJECT INDEX
421
|
| adam_txt |
CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TO THE SERIES XIII PREFACE XV LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS
XIX LIST OF FIGURES XXI LIST OF TABLES XXVII CHAPTER 1 AN AGEING ECONOMY
IN AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE 1 ANDERS KLEVMARKEN AND BJOM LINDGREN 1.
BACKGROUND 1 2. THE PROJECT "OLD BABY-BOOMERS" 12 3. THEORY AND PREVIOUS
EMPIRICAL RESULTS 15 3.1. HEALTH 15 3.2. SICKNESS ABSENCE 16 3.3.
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE LABOR MARKET 17 3.4. GEOGRAPHICAL MOBILITY AND
TENURE CHOICE 20 3.5. INCOMES AND WEALTH OF THE ELDERLY 22 3.6.
UTILIZATION OF HEALTH-AND SOCIAL CARE 23 4. A DYNAMIC MICRO-SIMULATION
MODEL 24 REFERENCES 25 CHAPTER 2 DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION FOR POLICY
ANALYSIS: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS 31 ANDERS KLEVMARKEN 1. WHAT IS
MICROSIMULATION? 31 2. MODELING FOR MICROSIMULATION 34 3. DATA PROBLEMS
37 VI CONTENTS 4. MACRO CHOCKS, FEEDBACK, AND MARKETS IN MICROSIMULATION
MODELS 39 5. ESTIMATION 41 6. MODEL VALIDATION 47 7. END REMARK 49
REFERENCES 50 CHAPTER 3 SESIM: A SWEDISH MICRO-SIMULATION MODEL 55
LENNART FLOOD 1. INTRODUCTION 55 2. THE STRUCTURE OF SESIM 55 3. DATA
SOURCES 60 3.1. LINDA: A PANEL DATABASE 60 3.2. OTHER DATA SOURCES 61 4.
INITIAL ADJUSTMENTS 61 4.1. ADJUSTMENTS TO A MEANINGFUL HOUSEHOLD
DEFINITION 61 4.2. ADDING EMIGRANTS WITH PENSION RIGHTS 63 5. SESIM: A
STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL 64 6. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT EXOGENOUS VARIABLES
67 REFERENCES 68 APPENDIX 68 CHAPTER 4 CHANGES IN THE HEALTH STATUS OF
THE POPULATION 85 KRISTIAN BOLIN, MATIAS EKLOF, SO'REN HOJGDRD AND BJORN
LINDGREN 1. HEALTH TRENDS IN SWEDEN 86 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND OUR
CHOICE OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 90 3. MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF HEALTH
92 4. OUR HEALTH MEASURE 92 4.1. OPTIONS .' 92 4.2. OUR MEASURE OF
HEALTH 93 5. DATA 95 5.1. DEPENDENT VARIABLES 96 5.2, EXPLANATORY
VARIABLES 96 6. ESTIMATION STRATEGY 97 7. RESULTS 99 8. SIMULATIONS 102
8.1. CROSS-SECTIONAL AGE-HEALTH PROFILES 103 8.2. COHORT AGE-HEALTH
PROFILES 103 8.3. POPULATION-SHARES TIME SERIES 105 CONTENTS VII
CONCLUSION 107 REFERENCES 107 APPENDIX A. ILLUSTRATION OF THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THE HEALTH INDEX SUGGESTED BY STATISTICS SWEDEN 110
APPENDIX B. THE ESTIMATOR 111 CHAPTER 5 SICKNESS ABSENCE FROM WORK 115
KRISTIAN BOLIN, SO'REN HOJGDRD AND BJORN LINDGREN 1. BACKGROUND 115 2.
PREVIOUS EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 116 3. THE SWEDISH SICKNESS-BENEFITS SYSTEM
122 4. DATA 128 4.1. DEPENDENT VARIABLE 129 4.2. EXPLANATORY VARIABLES
129 5. EMPIRICAL MODEL 130 5.1. ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION 130 6. RESULTS
130 7. SIMULATIONS 132 7.1. CROSS-SECTIONAL AGE PROFILES OF AVERAGE
NUMBER OF DAYS OF SICK-LEAVE 132 7.2. COHORT AGE-HEALTH PROFILES 133
7.3. SIMULATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS OF SICKNESS
ABSENCE FOR THE 50*64 POPULATION 133 7.4. SIMULATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TOTAL NUMBER OF DAYS OF SICKNESS ABSENCE FOR THE 20-64 POPULATION 135 8.
CONCLUSION 135 REFERENCES 136 APPENDIX A. AN ALGORITHM FOR BOOTSTRAP
CALCULATION OF MARGINAL EFFECTS AND P-VALUES IN A NEGATIVE BINOMIAL
MODEL WITH OVER DISPERSION, HETEROGENEITY, AND SAMPLE SELECTION 138
CHAPTER 6 EARLY RETIREMENT 143 KRISTIAN BOLIN, MATIAS EKLOF, DANIEL
HALLBERG, SO'REN HOJGDRD AND BJORN LINDGREN 1. DISABILITY INSURANCE IN
SWEDEN 145 2. OLD AGE PENSION IN SWEDEN 147 2.1. PUBLIC OLD AGE PENSION
147 2.2. COLLECTIVELY AGREED OCCUPATIONAL PENSION 148 2.3.
EARLY-RETIREMENT PENSION OFFERS 151 3. STYLIZED FACTS 152 VIII CONTENTS
4. MODELS OF EARLY RETIREMENT 157 4.1. EARLY RETIREMENT VIA DISABILITY
INSURANCE 159 4.2. EARLY RETIREMENT VIA OLD AGE PENSION 160 5. DATA 162
5.1. DATA FOR EARLY RETIREMENT VIA DISABILITY INSURANCE 162 5.2. DATA
FOR EARLY RETIREMENT VIA OLD AGE PENSION 164 6. EMPIRICAL SPECIFICATIONS
169 7. RESULTS 171 8. SIMULATIONS 173 8.1. BASIC SCENARIO 176 8.2.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 1: NO EARLY-RETIREMENT OFFERS 182 8.3. ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO 2: DELAYED RETIREMENT 184 9. CONCLUSIONS 189 REFERENCES 191
APPENDIX 195 CHAPTER 7 GEOGRAPHICAL MOBILITY AND TENURE CHOICE 201 URBAN
FRANSSON AND MATIAS EKLOF 1. URBANIZATION AND MIGRATION 201 1.1.
REGIONAL REDISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION 202 1.2. URBAN CONCENTRATION
203 2. HOUSING 205 2.1. THE HOUSING MARKET IN SWEDEN 205 3. THE SWEDISH
HOUSING POLICY 209 3.1. SUBSIDIES AND ALLOWANCES 209 3.2. HOUSING POLICY
IN THE 1990S 209 3.3. CURRENT RENT REGULATION 211 4. HOUSING AND
MOBILITY OF THE ELDERLY 211 4.1. INTRODUCTION 211 4.2. ELDERLY HOUSING
AND TENURE 212 5. MODELING MIGRATION AND TENURE CHOICE 215 5.1. MODEL
OVERVIEW 215 5.2. DATA 217 5.3. ANALYZING MIGRATION BEHAVIOR 219 6.
RESULT FROM THE SIMULATIONS 236 7. CONCLUSIONS 243 REFERENCES 243
CHAPTER 8 THE INCOME OF THE BABY BOOMERS 249 LENNART FLOOD, ANDERS
KLEVMARKEN AND ANDREEA MITRUT 1. INTRODUCTION 249 2. SWEDEN IN AN
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON 250 CONTENTS IX 3. THE SWEDISH EXPERIENCE 254
3.1. CHANGES IN INCOME 1975-2003 254 4. INCOME GENERATION IN SESIM 261
4.1. INCOME FROM EARNINGS 261 4.2. PENSION INCOME AND OTHER BENEFITS 262
4.3. INCOME FROM CAPITAL 264 5. RETIREMENT INCOME OF THE BABY BOOMERS
275 5.1. CONCEPTS AND MEASURES 275 5.2. REPLACEMENT RATES FOR THE BABY
BOOMERS 276 5.3. RELATIVE INCOME OF THE BABY BOOMERS 281 5.4. INCOME
DISTRIBUTION AND POVERTY 284 6. CONCLUSIONS 287 REFERENCES 287 APPENDIX
A. COMPARING DIFFERENT MEASURES OF REPLACEMENT RATES 288 CHAPTER 9 THE
DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH 293 LENNART FLOOD AND ANDERS KLEVMARKEN 1. THE
SWEDISH DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON 294 2. THE
STRUCTURE OF THE WEALTH MODULE IN SESIM 298 3. MODELING FINANCIAL WEALTH
300 3.1. TAX-DEFERRED PENSION SAVINGS 303 4. HOUSEHOLD REAL WEALTH 307
5. MODELS OF DEBTS 310 6. SIMULATING THE FUTURE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF
WEALTH 315 7. CONCLUSIONS 322 REFERENCES 323 CHAPTER 10 UTILIZATION OF
INPATIENT CARE 325 KRISTIAN BOLIN, SOREN HOJGDRD AND BJORN LINDGREN 1.
THE SWEDISH HEALTH CARE SYSTEM 325 1.1. GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS 325 1.2.
INPATIENT CARE 328 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK, PREVIOUS EMPIRICAL STUDIES,
AND OUR CHOICE OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 330 3. DATA 331 3.1. DEPENDENT
VARIABLES 333 3.2. EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 333 4. MODELS 334 5. RESULTS
334 X CONTENTS 6. SIMULATIONS 336 6.1. CROSS-SECTIONAL AGE PROFILES OF
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS OF INPATIENT CARE 336 6.2. COHORT AGE PROFILES OF
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS OF INPATIENT CARE 336 6.3. SIMULATED DEVELOPMENT
OF AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS OF INPATIENT CARE FOR THE POPULATION 338 6.4.
SIMULATED DEVELOPMENT OF TOTAL NUMBER OF DAYS OF INPATIENT CARE FOR THE
POPULATION 338 7. CONCLUSION 340 REFERENCES 341 CHAPTER 11 THE DEMAND
FOR OLD AGE CARE 343 URBAN FRANSSON, DANIEL HALLBERG AND MARTEN
LAGERGREN 1. CARE FOR ELDERLY PERSONS IN SWEDEN 343 1.1. THE SWEDISH
SYSTEM OF PUBLIC ELDERLY CARE 343 1.2. RANGE OF SERVICES FOR ELDERLY
PERSONS 344 1.3. TOTAL EXPENDITURE AND FUNDING 345 1.4. NON-PUBLIC AND
INFORMAL CARE OF THE ELDERLY 346 2. CLOSENESS TO KIN 347 2.1. RELOCATION
AMONG CHILDREN AND PARENTS, AND THE PROXIMITY OF PARENTS TO ADULT
CHILDREN 348 2.2. METHODS, DATA, AND VARIABLES 350 2.3. RESULTS OF
REGRESSION ANALYSIS 353 2.4. SIMULATION RESULTS 356 3. A MODEL OF THE
DEMAND FOR OLD AGE CARE AND MORTALITY: SPECIFICATION, ESTIMATION,
INTERPRETATION, AND SIMULATIONS 359 3.1. INTRODUCTION 359 3.2. DATA 361
3.3. METHODOLOGY 365 3.4. MULTINOMIAL OAC CHOICE ANALYSIS 365 3.5.
MORTALITY ANALYSIS 369 3.6. SIMULATION 373 3.7. CONCLUSIONS 377
REFERENCES 380 APPENDIX 384 CHAPTER 12 SIMULATING THE FUTURE OF THE
ELDERLY 389 ANDERS KLEVMARKEN 1. IMPROVED HEALTH PROGRESSION WITH AND
WITHOUT DECREASED DEATH RISKS 390 CONTENTS XI 2. INCREASED IMMIGRATION
396 3. DELAYED RETIREMENT 399 4. CHANGES IN GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS AND IN
UNEMPLOYMENT 401 5. THE INCOMES AND WEALTH OF PEOPLE IN OLD-AGE CARE 403
CHAPTER 13 EVALUATION AND CONCLUSIONS 409 ANDERS KLEVMARKEN 1. SUMMARY
OF FINDINGS 409 2. METHODOLOGY ISSUES 415 REFERENCES 419 SUBJECT INDEX
421 |
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| geographic | Schweden Schweden (DE-588)4077258-5 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Schweden |
| id | DE-604.BV035056211 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T21:58:35Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:21:12Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780444532534 0444532536 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016724803 |
| oclc_num | 226973431 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | xxxiii, 429 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | Emerald |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Contributions to economic analysis |
| series2 | Contributions to economic analysis |
| spelling | Simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden Anders Klevmarken, Björn Lindgren [eds.] 1. ed. Bingley Emerald 2008 xxxiii, 429 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Contributions to economic analysis 285 Includes bibliographical references and index Population aging / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting Social prediction / Mathematical models Older people / Health and hygiene / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting Mathematisches Modell Older people Health and hygiene Economic aspects Sweden Forecasting Population aging Economic aspects Sweden Forecasting Social prediction Mathematical models Altern (DE-588)4068596-2 gnd rswk-swf Mikrosimulation (DE-588)4131395-1 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 gnd rswk-swf Schweden Schweden (DE-588)4077258-5 gnd rswk-swf Schweden (DE-588)4077258-5 g Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 s Altern (DE-588)4068596-2 s Mikrosimulation (DE-588)4131395-1 s DE-604 Klevmarken, Anders 1941- Sonstige (DE-588)136187870 oth Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 978-1-84950-536-9 Contributions to economic analysis 285 (DE-604)BV000001445 285 SWB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016724803&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden Contributions to economic analysis Population aging / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting Social prediction / Mathematical models Older people / Health and hygiene / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting Mathematisches Modell Older people Health and hygiene Economic aspects Sweden Forecasting Population aging Economic aspects Sweden Forecasting Social prediction Mathematical models Altern (DE-588)4068596-2 gnd Mikrosimulation (DE-588)4131395-1 gnd Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4068596-2 (DE-588)4131395-1 (DE-588)4006287-9 (DE-588)4077258-5 |
| title | Simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden |
| title_auth | Simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden |
| title_exact_search | Simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden |
| title_full | Simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden Anders Klevmarken, Björn Lindgren [eds.] |
| title_fullStr | Simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden Anders Klevmarken, Björn Lindgren [eds.] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden Anders Klevmarken, Björn Lindgren [eds.] |
| title_short | Simulating an ageing population |
| title_sort | simulating an ageing population a microsimulation approach applied to sweden |
| title_sub | a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden |
| topic | Population aging / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting Social prediction / Mathematical models Older people / Health and hygiene / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting Mathematisches Modell Older people Health and hygiene Economic aspects Sweden Forecasting Population aging Economic aspects Sweden Forecasting Social prediction Mathematical models Altern (DE-588)4068596-2 gnd Mikrosimulation (DE-588)4131395-1 gnd Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Population aging / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting Social prediction / Mathematical models Older people / Health and hygiene / Economic aspects / Sweden / Forecasting Mathematisches Modell Older people Health and hygiene Economic aspects Sweden Forecasting Population aging Economic aspects Sweden Forecasting Social prediction Mathematical models Altern Mikrosimulation Bevölkerung Schweden |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016724803&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000001445 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT klevmarkenanders simulatinganageingpopulationamicrosimulationapproachappliedtosweden |