Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas: a primer
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Vancouver
UBC Press
1995
|
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 116 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0774805013 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas |b a primer |c H. Craig Davis |
| 264 | 1 | |a Vancouver |b UBC Press |c 1995 | |
| 300 | |a XII, 116 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804142137680330752 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface / xi
1 Introduction / 3
The Value of Population Projections / 3
Projections, Forecasts, and Estimates: Definitions / 5
The Basic Demographic Equation / 6
Overview of the Book / 7
2 Mathematical Extrapolation 1/8
The Linear Function / 10
A Numerical Illustration / 11
The Exponential Function / 13
Linear Transformation of the Exponential Function / 15
A Numerical Illustration / 15
vii
viii Contents
Polynomial Functions / 17
Linear Transformation of a Polynomial Function / 17
A Numerical Illustration /18
The Hyperbolic Function / 19
Linear Transformation of the Hyperbolic Function / 19
A Numerical Example / 20
Summary / 22
3 Mathematical Extrapolation II / 24
The Modified Exponential Function / 24
Linear Transformation of the Modified Exponential Function / 26
A Numerical Illustration / 26
Mathematical Extrapolation: A Review / 27
Choosing among Extrapolations / 29
Measuring the Prediction Error / 30
A Four-Step Projection Procedure / 31
Summary / 34
4 Comparative Methods / 35
Ratio Methods / 36
Constant Share Method / 37
Projected Share Methods / 37
Difference Methods / 39
Constant Difference Method / 39
Projected Difference Method / 39
Choosing among Methods / 40
Summary / 42
Contents ix
5 The Cohort-Survival Population Model / 44
The Basic Cohort Model / 45
A Numerical Illustration / 45
An Algebraic Summary / 47
Mortality / 48
Basic Measures / 48
Projecting Death Rates / 50
Fertility / 53
Basic Measures / 53
Projecting Birth Rates / 56
Summary / 58
6 Migration Models / 60
Basic Concepts / 61
Immigration and Emigration / 61
In-Migration and Out-Migration / 61
Gross and Net Migration / 62
Causes of Migration / 63
Estimating Past Migration / 66
Direct Estimation of Migration / 66
Indirect Estimation of Migration / 67
Projecting Future Migration / 68
Extrapolation of Past Trends / 69
Regression Models / 72
Summary / 75
7 A Final Note / 77
Mathematical Extrapolation / 77
x Contents
Comparative Methods / 78
The Cohort-Survival Model / 79
Migration Models / 79
Summary / 80
Addendum: Qualities of a Good Demographic Analyst / 80
Appendix A: Linear Regression / 82
Simple Linear Regression / 82
Illustrative Example: Simple Linear Regression / 83
Multiple Linear Regression / 89
Illustrative Example: Multiple Linear Regression / 89
Summary / 91
Appendix B: Logarithms / 92
What Is a Logarithm? / 92
The Three Basic Rules of Logarithms / 94
Logarithms and Linear Transformations / 95
Summary / 96
Notes / 99
Selected Readings/ 111
Index/ 115
|
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| id | DE-604.BV025096228 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T22:26:59Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0774805013 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Davis, H. Craig Verfasser aut Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas a primer H. Craig Davis Vancouver UBC Press 1995 XII, 116 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=019748742&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Davis, H. Craig Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas a primer |
| title | Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas a primer |
| title_auth | Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas a primer |
| title_exact_search | Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas a primer |
| title_full | Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas a primer H. Craig Davis |
| title_fullStr | Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas a primer H. Craig Davis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas a primer H. Craig Davis |
| title_short | Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas |
| title_sort | demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas a primer |
| title_sub | a primer |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=019748742&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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