The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks
This paper investigates the impact of changes in the level of taxation on economic activity. We use the narrative record -- presidential speeches, executive-branch documents, and Congressional reports -- to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions....
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2007
|
| Series: | Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research
13264 |
| Online Access: | Volltext |
| Summary: | This paper investigates the impact of changes in the level of taxation on economic activity. We use the narrative record -- presidential speeches, executive-branch documents, and Congressional reports -- to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This narrative analysis allows us to separate revenue changes resulting from legislation from changes occurring for other reasons. It also allows us to further separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions, such as countercyclical actions and tax changes tied to changes in government spending, and those taken for more exogenous reasons, such as to reduce an inherited budget deficit or to promote long-run growth. We then examine the behavior of output following these more exogenous legislated changes. The resulting estimates indicate that tax increases are highly contractionary. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes. The large effect stems in considerable part from a powerful negative effect of tax increases on investment. We also find that legislated tax increases designed to reduce a persistent budget deficit appear to have much smaller output costs than other tax increases. |
| Item Description: | Literaturverz. S. 45 - 47 |
| Physical Description: | 47, [24] S. graph. Darst. 22 cm |
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| id | DE-604.BV023593168 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T22:41:31Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:25:14Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
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| physical | 47, [24] S. graph. Darst. 22 cm |
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| publishDateSearch | 2007 |
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| publisher | National Bureau of Economic Research |
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| spelling | Romer, Christina 1958- Verfasser (DE-588)128755199 aut The macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks Christina D. Romer ; David H. Romer Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2007 47, [24] S. graph. Darst. 22 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 13264 Literaturverz. S. 45 - 47 This paper investigates the impact of changes in the level of taxation on economic activity. We use the narrative record -- presidential speeches, executive-branch documents, and Congressional reports -- to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This narrative analysis allows us to separate revenue changes resulting from legislation from changes occurring for other reasons. It also allows us to further separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions, such as countercyclical actions and tax changes tied to changes in government spending, and those taken for more exogenous reasons, such as to reduce an inherited budget deficit or to promote long-run growth. We then examine the behavior of output following these more exogenous legislated changes. The resulting estimates indicate that tax increases are highly contractionary. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes. The large effect stems in considerable part from a powerful negative effect of tax increases on investment. We also find that legislated tax increases designed to reduce a persistent budget deficit appear to have much smaller output costs than other tax increases. Romer, David 1958- Verfasser (DE-588)12451071X aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.> NBER working paper series 13264 (DE-604)BV002801238 13264 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13264.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Romer, Christina 1958- Romer, David 1958- The macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks |
| title | The macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks |
| title_auth | The macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks |
| title_exact_search | The macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks |
| title_full | The macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks Christina D. Romer ; David H. Romer |
| title_fullStr | The macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks Christina D. Romer ; David H. Romer |
| title_full_unstemmed | The macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks Christina D. Romer ; David H. Romer |
| title_short | The macroeconomic effects of tax changes |
| title_sort | the macroeconomic effects of tax changes estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks |
| title_sub | estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13264.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
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