The stability of large external imbalances: the role of returns differentials
Were the U.S. to persistently earn substantially more on its foreign investments ("U.S. claims") than foreigners earn on their U.S. investments ("U.S. liabilities"), the likelihood that the current environment of sizeable global imbalances will evolve in a benign manner increases...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2007
|
| Series: | Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research
13074 |
| Online Access: | Volltext |
| Summary: | Were the U.S. to persistently earn substantially more on its foreign investments ("U.S. claims") than foreigners earn on their U.S. investments ("U.S. liabilities"), the likelihood that the current environment of sizeable global imbalances will evolve in a benign manner increases. However, utilizing data on the actual foreign equity and bond portfolios of U.S. investors and the U.S. equity and bond portfolios of foreign investors, we find that the returns differential of U.S. claims over U.S. liabilities is essentially zero. Ending our sample in 2005, the differential is positive, whereas through 2004 it is negative; in both cases the differential is statistically indecipherable from zero. Moreover, were it not for the poor timing of investors from developed countries, who tend to shift their U.S. portfolios toward (or away from) equities prior to the subsequent underperformance (or strong performance) of equities, the returns differential would be even lower. Thus, in the context of equity and bond portfolios we find no evidence that the U.S. can count on earning more on its claims than it pays on its liabilities. |
| Physical Description: | 48 S. graph. Darst. 22 cm |
Staff View
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000zcb4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV023592986 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20080627000000.0 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 070607s2007 xxud||| |||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)255899878 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)GBV530040700 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 044 | |a xxu |c XD-US | ||
| 049 | |a DE-521 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Curcuru, Stephanie E. |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)133356116 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The stability of large external imbalances |b the role of returns differentials |c Stephanie E. Curcuru ; Thomas Dvorak ; Francis E. Warnock |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge, Mass. |b National Bureau of Economic Research |c 2007 | |
| 300 | |a 48 S. |b graph. Darst. |c 22 cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research |v 13074 | |
| 520 | 8 | |a Were the U.S. to persistently earn substantially more on its foreign investments ("U.S. claims") than foreigners earn on their U.S. investments ("U.S. liabilities"), the likelihood that the current environment of sizeable global imbalances will evolve in a benign manner increases. However, utilizing data on the actual foreign equity and bond portfolios of U.S. investors and the U.S. equity and bond portfolios of foreign investors, we find that the returns differential of U.S. claims over U.S. liabilities is essentially zero. Ending our sample in 2005, the differential is positive, whereas through 2004 it is negative; in both cases the differential is statistically indecipherable from zero. Moreover, were it not for the poor timing of investors from developed countries, who tend to shift their U.S. portfolios toward (or away from) equities prior to the subsequent underperformance (or strong performance) of equities, the returns differential would be even lower. Thus, in the context of equity and bond portfolios we find no evidence that the U.S. can count on earning more on its claims than it pays on its liabilities. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dvořák, Tomáš |d 1973- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)133356140 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Warnock, Francis E. |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)131562029 |4 aut | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Online-Ausgabe |
| 810 | 2 | |a National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.> |t NBER working paper series |v 13074 |w (DE-604)BV002801238 |9 13074 | |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |u http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13074.pdf |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016908316 | ||
Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804138252054036480 |
|---|---|
| adam_txt | |
| any_adam_object | |
| any_adam_object_boolean | |
| author | Curcuru, Stephanie E. Dvořák, Tomáš 1973- Warnock, Francis E. |
| author_GND | (DE-588)133356116 (DE-588)133356140 (DE-588)131562029 |
| author_facet | Curcuru, Stephanie E. Dvořák, Tomáš 1973- Warnock, Francis E. |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Curcuru, Stephanie E. |
| author_variant | s e c se sec t d td f e w fe few |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV023592986 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)255899878 (DE-599)GBV530040700 |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02471nam a2200337zcb4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV023592986</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20080627000000.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">070607s2007 xxud||| |||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)255899878</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)GBV530040700</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="044" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xxu</subfield><subfield code="c">XD-US</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Curcuru, Stephanie E.</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)133356116</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">The stability of large external imbalances</subfield><subfield code="b">the role of returns differentials</subfield><subfield code="c">Stephanie E. Curcuru ; Thomas Dvorak ; Francis E. Warnock</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Cambridge, Mass.</subfield><subfield code="b">National Bureau of Economic Research</subfield><subfield code="c">2007</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">48 S.</subfield><subfield code="b">graph. Darst.</subfield><subfield code="c">22 cm</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research</subfield><subfield code="v">13074</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Were the U.S. to persistently earn substantially more on its foreign investments ("U.S. claims") than foreigners earn on their U.S. investments ("U.S. liabilities"), the likelihood that the current environment of sizeable global imbalances will evolve in a benign manner increases. However, utilizing data on the actual foreign equity and bond portfolios of U.S. investors and the U.S. equity and bond portfolios of foreign investors, we find that the returns differential of U.S. claims over U.S. liabilities is essentially zero. Ending our sample in 2005, the differential is positive, whereas through 2004 it is negative; in both cases the differential is statistically indecipherable from zero. Moreover, were it not for the poor timing of investors from developed countries, who tend to shift their U.S. portfolios toward (or away from) equities prior to the subsequent underperformance (or strong performance) of equities, the returns differential would be even lower. Thus, in the context of equity and bond portfolios we find no evidence that the U.S. can count on earning more on its claims than it pays on its liabilities.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Dvořák, Tomáš</subfield><subfield code="d">1973-</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)133356140</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Warnock, Francis E.</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)131562029</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Erscheint auch als</subfield><subfield code="n">Online-Ausgabe</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="810" ind1="2" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.></subfield><subfield code="t">NBER working paper series</subfield><subfield code="v">13074</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-604)BV002801238</subfield><subfield code="9">13074</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="1"><subfield code="u">http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13074.pdf</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016908316</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV023592986 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T22:41:31Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:25:14Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016908316 |
| oclc_num | 255899878 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-521 |
| owner_facet | DE-521 |
| physical | 48 S. graph. Darst. 22 cm |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publishDateSearch | 2007 |
| publishDateSort | 2007 |
| publisher | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research |
| spelling | Curcuru, Stephanie E. Verfasser (DE-588)133356116 aut The stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials Stephanie E. Curcuru ; Thomas Dvorak ; Francis E. Warnock Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2007 48 S. graph. Darst. 22 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 13074 Were the U.S. to persistently earn substantially more on its foreign investments ("U.S. claims") than foreigners earn on their U.S. investments ("U.S. liabilities"), the likelihood that the current environment of sizeable global imbalances will evolve in a benign manner increases. However, utilizing data on the actual foreign equity and bond portfolios of U.S. investors and the U.S. equity and bond portfolios of foreign investors, we find that the returns differential of U.S. claims over U.S. liabilities is essentially zero. Ending our sample in 2005, the differential is positive, whereas through 2004 it is negative; in both cases the differential is statistically indecipherable from zero. Moreover, were it not for the poor timing of investors from developed countries, who tend to shift their U.S. portfolios toward (or away from) equities prior to the subsequent underperformance (or strong performance) of equities, the returns differential would be even lower. Thus, in the context of equity and bond portfolios we find no evidence that the U.S. can count on earning more on its claims than it pays on its liabilities. Dvořák, Tomáš 1973- Verfasser (DE-588)133356140 aut Warnock, Francis E. Verfasser (DE-588)131562029 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.> NBER working paper series 13074 (DE-604)BV002801238 13074 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13074.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Curcuru, Stephanie E. Dvořák, Tomáš 1973- Warnock, Francis E. The stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials |
| title | The stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials |
| title_auth | The stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials |
| title_exact_search | The stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials |
| title_full | The stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials Stephanie E. Curcuru ; Thomas Dvorak ; Francis E. Warnock |
| title_fullStr | The stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials Stephanie E. Curcuru ; Thomas Dvorak ; Francis E. Warnock |
| title_full_unstemmed | The stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials Stephanie E. Curcuru ; Thomas Dvorak ; Francis E. Warnock |
| title_short | The stability of large external imbalances |
| title_sort | the stability of large external imbalances the role of returns differentials |
| title_sub | the role of returns differentials |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13074.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT curcurustephaniee thestabilityoflargeexternalimbalancestheroleofreturnsdifferentials AT dvoraktomas thestabilityoflargeexternalimbalancestheroleofreturnsdifferentials AT warnockfrancise thestabilityoflargeexternalimbalancestheroleofreturnsdifferentials |