Happy news from the dismal science: reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability
"We analyze fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability in Japan using a variant of the methodology developed in Blanchard (1990). We find that Japan can achieve fiscal sustainability over a 100-year horizon with relatively small changes in the tax-to-GDP ratio. Our analysis differs from more pessi...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2004
|
| Schriftenreihe: | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series
10988 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | "We analyze fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability in Japan using a variant of the methodology developed in Blanchard (1990). We find that Japan can achieve fiscal sustainability over a 100-year horizon with relatively small changes in the tax-to-GDP ratio. Our analysis differs from more pessimistic analyses in several dimensions. First, since Japanese net debt is only half that of gross debt, we demonstrate that the current debt burden is much lower than is typically reported. This means that monetization of the debt will have little impact on Japan's fiscal sustainability because Japan's problem is the level of future liabilities not current ones. Second, we argue that one obtains very different projections of social security burdens based on the standard assumption that Japan's population is on a trend towards extinction rather than transitioning to a new lower level. Third, we demonstrate that some modest cost containment of the growth rate of real per capita benefits, such as cutting expenditures for shrinking demographic categories, can dramatically lower the necessary tax burden. In sum, no scenario involves Japanese taxes rising above those in Europe today and many result in tax-to-GDP ratios comparable to those in the United States"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site. |
| Beschreibung: | 44, [9] S. graph. Darst. |
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| 490 | 1 | |a National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |v 10988 | |
| 520 | 3 | |a "We analyze fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability in Japan using a variant of the methodology developed in Blanchard (1990). We find that Japan can achieve fiscal sustainability over a 100-year horizon with relatively small changes in the tax-to-GDP ratio. Our analysis differs from more pessimistic analyses in several dimensions. First, since Japanese net debt is only half that of gross debt, we demonstrate that the current debt burden is much lower than is typically reported. This means that monetization of the debt will have little impact on Japan's fiscal sustainability because Japan's problem is the level of future liabilities not current ones. Second, we argue that one obtains very different projections of social security burdens based on the standard assumption that Japan's population is on a trend towards extinction rather than transitioning to a new lower level. Third, we demonstrate that some modest cost containment of the growth rate of real per capita benefits, such as cutting expenditures for shrinking demographic categories, can dramatically lower the necessary tax burden. In sum, no scenario involves Japanese taxes rising above those in Europe today and many result in tax-to-GDP ratios comparable to those in the United States"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site. | |
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| geographic | Japan Economic conditions 1989- |
| geographic_facet | Japan Economic conditions 1989- |
| id | DE-604.BV023591140 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T22:41:27Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:25:10Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016906470 |
| oclc_num | 57391775 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
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| owner_facet | DE-521 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | 44, [9] S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2004 |
| publishDateSearch | 2004 |
| publishDateSort | 2004 |
| publisher | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| record_format | marc |
| series | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| series2 | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| spelling | Broda, Christian M. 1975- Verfasser (DE-588)129263427 aut Happy news from the dismal science reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability Christian Broda ; David E. Weinstein Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2004 44, [9] S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 10988 "We analyze fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability in Japan using a variant of the methodology developed in Blanchard (1990). We find that Japan can achieve fiscal sustainability over a 100-year horizon with relatively small changes in the tax-to-GDP ratio. Our analysis differs from more pessimistic analyses in several dimensions. First, since Japanese net debt is only half that of gross debt, we demonstrate that the current debt burden is much lower than is typically reported. This means that monetization of the debt will have little impact on Japan's fiscal sustainability because Japan's problem is the level of future liabilities not current ones. Second, we argue that one obtains very different projections of social security burdens based on the standard assumption that Japan's population is on a trend towards extinction rather than transitioning to a new lower level. Third, we demonstrate that some modest cost containment of the growth rate of real per capita benefits, such as cutting expenditures for shrinking demographic categories, can dramatically lower the necessary tax burden. In sum, no scenario involves Japanese taxes rising above those in Europe today and many result in tax-to-GDP ratios comparable to those in the United States"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site. Wirtschaft Fiscal policy Japan Japan Economic conditions 1989- Weinstein, David E. 1964- Verfasser (DE-588)128512563 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 10988 (DE-604)BV002801238 10988 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w10988.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Broda, Christian M. 1975- Weinstein, David E. 1964- Happy news from the dismal science reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series Wirtschaft Fiscal policy Japan |
| title | Happy news from the dismal science reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability |
| title_auth | Happy news from the dismal science reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability |
| title_exact_search | Happy news from the dismal science reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Happy news from the dismal science reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability |
| title_full | Happy news from the dismal science reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability Christian Broda ; David E. Weinstein |
| title_fullStr | Happy news from the dismal science reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability Christian Broda ; David E. Weinstein |
| title_full_unstemmed | Happy news from the dismal science reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability Christian Broda ; David E. Weinstein |
| title_short | Happy news from the dismal science |
| title_sort | happy news from the dismal science reassessing japanese fiscal policy and sustainability |
| title_sub | reassessing Japanese fiscal policy and sustainability |
| topic | Wirtschaft Fiscal policy Japan |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Fiscal policy Japan Japan Economic conditions 1989- |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w10988.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
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