Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices:
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| Other Authors: | |
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cheltenham ; Northampton, Mass.
Elgar
2002
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XIII, 214 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 1840648430 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices |c ed. by Meher Manzur |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cheltenham ; Northampton, Mass. |b Elgar |c 2002 | |
| 300 | |a XIII, 214 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Foreign exchange rates | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Interest rates | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Primary commodities -- Prices | |
| 650 | 4 | |a International finance | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Manzur, Meher |d 1953- |0 (DE-588)131423576 |4 edt | |
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Figures vi
Tables viii
Preface xi
Acknowledgements xii
Contributors xiii
1. Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Commodity Prices: An 1
Introduction
Meher Manzur
2. The Explosion of Purchasing Power Parity 9
Yihui Lan
3. On Exchange Rates, Nominal and Real 39
Larry A. Sjaastad
4. Purchasing Power Parity and International Competitiveness 79
Meher Manzur
5. The World Real Interest Rate 97
Li Lian Ong, Kenneth W. Clements and H. Y. Izan
6. Term Structure of Interest Rates: Experience from the 126
G7 Countries
Meher Manzur
7. Notes on Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices 145
Kenneth W. Clements and Meher Manzur
8. The Price of Gold and the Exchange Rate 157
Larry A. Sjaastad and Fabio Scacciavillani
9. Is the $A a Commodity Currency? 180
John Freebairn
Index 208
Figures
2.1 The growth of economic research 12
2.2A Exchange rates and relative prices: absolute PPP 15
2.2B Exchange rates and relative prices: relative PPP 15
2.2C Exchange rates and relative prices: stochastic deviations from
relative PPP 16
2.3 The quantity theory of money 17
2.4 Traded and non-traded goods prices 18
2.5 Exchange rates, money and prices 19
2.6 Productivity and exchange rates 20
2.7 The time path of a mean reversion process 24
2.8 Estimates of PPP half-lives 26
3.1 Swiss franc exchange rates 1973-1991(nominal, PPP real and
true real versions) 55
3.2 Prices of Swiss traded goods vs. price levels 56
4.1 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Singapore 83
4.2 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Malaysia 83
4.3 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Japan 83
4.4 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Thailand 84
4.5 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Korea 84
5.1 Gagon and Unferh s estimates of the world interest rate model:
annual data, 1978-1993 110
7.1 Internal and external prices 147
7.2 Equi-value contours 151
7.3 Internal and external relative prices 152
7.4 World-market clearing 153
7.5 Overall equilibrium 154
7.6 The small-country case 154
W
Figures vii
7.7 The large-country case 155
8.1 Simulated response of US dollar price of gold to a 10 per cent
depreciation of the dollar against: the yen, the DM both 171
9.1 Estimates of the sectoral composition of exports 1913-1914 to
1981-1982 186
9.2 Terms of trade index (ratio of the implicit price deflator for
exports and the implicit price deflator for imports; index base
1975 = 100) 190
9.3 Commodity price index 1960-1986 (1980 = 100) 192
9.4 Terms of trade index (left scale) and effective real exchange
rate index, RCT (right scale) (1974 = 100) 198
9.5 Australia s terms of trade and international competitiveness 200
9.6 World commodity price fluctuations and Australian export
commodity sector 202
9.7 World commodity price fluctuations and Australian import
competing sector 203
9.8 World commodity price fluctuations and non-traded sector 204
Tables
1.1 Real exchange rates: G7 (log changes x 100) 3
1.2 Changes in commodity prices and real interest rates 4
2.1 Big Mac Index search results 13
2.2 Estimates of PPP half-lives 25
2.3 Recent empirical evidence on PPP 28
3.1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit-root tests on basic data:
1974:01-1991:04 48
3.2 Swiss franc/US dollar exchange rate: 1974:02-1991:04 50
3.3 Swiss franc/mini-ECU exchange rate: 1974:02-1991:04 52
3.4 Correlations and unit-root tests, franc/dollar exchange rates:
1973:01-1991:04 57
3.5 Orthogonality tests of Swiss true real exchange rate: 1974:01-
1991:04; NLSYSTEM-GMM estimates of equation (3.8) 60
3.6 Tests of unit-sum restriction: Switzerland, 1974:02-1991:04;
NLSYSTEM-GMM estimates of equation (3.7 ) on import and
export prices 61
3.7 Orthogonality tests of Swiss PPP real exchange rate: 1974:02-
1991:04; NLSYSTEM-GMM estimates of equation (3.9 ) 63
3.8 Estimated cointegrating vectors for Swiss exchange rates:
1974:02-1991:04 65
3.9 Orthogonality tests: Swiss true real exchange rates, 1973:02-
1991:04 66
3.10 Percent measurement error in the Swiss PPP real exchange
rate, 1973:02-1991:04 66
3.11 Endogeneity tests onya Switzerland, 1974:01-1991:04 73
4.1 DF-ADF unit root: Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Thailand and
Korea, 1973(1)-1996(4) 86
4.2 Sims unit root tests: Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Thailand and
Korea, 1973(1)-1996(4) 88
4.3 Engle and Granger cointegration tests: Singapore, Malaysia,
Japan, Thailand and Korea, 1973(1)-1996(4) 89
Vlll
Tables ix
4.4 Johansen cointegration tests: exports and basket real exchange
rates, 1973(1)-1996(4) 90
4.5 Johansen cointegration tests: exports and PPP real exchange
rates, 1973(1)-1996(4) 91
4.6 Granger causality test: exports, PPP and basket real exchange
rates, 1973(1)-1996(4) 92
5.1 Estimate of the world interest rate model: annual data, 1978-
1993 109
5.2 Estimates of the world interest rate model for seven OECD
countries: annual data, 1978-1993 113
5.3 Estimates of the weighted world interest rate model: annual
data, 1978-1993 114
5.4 Estimates of the world interest rate model for seven OECD
countries: annual data deflated by WPI, 1978-1993 116
5.5 Estimates of the true real interest rate with relative price
changes for seven OECD countries: annual data, 1978-1993 119
6.1 Correlation matrix of bond yield measures: G7 countries,
1975(3)-1998(4) 132
6.2 Summary statistics of bond yield measures: G7 countries,
1975(3)-1998(4) 133
6.3 IPS panel tests for unit roots: G7 countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 134
6.4 Autocorrelations of excess holding returns: G7 countries,
1975(3)-1998(4) 135
6.5 Regression of excess holding return on the yield spread: G7
countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 135
6.6 Regression of the change in one period ahead short rate on the
yield spread: G7 countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 136
6.7 Regression of volatility of interest rates on the yield spread: G7
countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 139
6.8 Regression of actual market covariability on the yield spread:
G7 countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 140
6.9 Regression of nominal exchange rate volatility on the yield
spread: G7 countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 142
8.1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests on residuals of
cointegration equations: gold prices and exchange rates,
1982(07)-1990(12) 164
8.2 Stationarity and market efficiency tests on forecast error data
1982(2)-1990(4) 165
8.3 OLS estimate of equation (8.4): gold, 1983(01)-1990(12)
(Hansen-Hodrick standard errors) 167
x Tables
8.4 OLS estimate of equation (8.4) with inflation variables: gold,
1983(01)-1990(12) (Hansen-Hodrick standaid errors) 169
8.5 OLS estimate of equation (8.4 ) with inflation variables and
nine lags on dependent variable: gold, 1983(01)-1990(12)
(Hansen-Hodrick standard errors) 170
8.6 The stability of the gold market and real exchange rates 173
8.7 Stationarity tests on gold price and exchange rate data 177
9.1 Changes in the composition of commodities in Australia s
exports of goods, 1950-1951 to 1988-1989 (percentage share
of total exports) 187
9.2 Measures of trend movements and the volatility of real prices
for selected commodities over the period 1950-1988 191
9.3 Correlation matrix for real commodity prices, 1952-1988 193
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Figures vi
Tables viii
Preface xi
Acknowledgements xii
Contributors xiii
1. Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Commodity Prices: An 1
Introduction
Meher Manzur
2. The Explosion of Purchasing Power Parity 9
Yihui Lan
3. On Exchange Rates, Nominal and Real 39
Larry A. Sjaastad
4. Purchasing Power Parity and International Competitiveness 79
Meher Manzur
5. The World Real Interest Rate 97
Li Lian Ong, Kenneth W. Clements and H. Y. Izan
6. Term Structure of Interest Rates: Experience from the 126
G7 Countries
Meher Manzur
7. Notes on Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices 145
Kenneth W. Clements and Meher Manzur
8. The Price of Gold and the Exchange Rate 157
Larry A. Sjaastad and Fabio Scacciavillani
9. Is the \$A a Commodity Currency? 180
John Freebairn
Index 208
Figures
2.1 The growth of economic research 12
2.2A Exchange rates and relative prices: absolute PPP 15
2.2B Exchange rates and relative prices: relative PPP 15
2.2C Exchange rates and relative prices: stochastic deviations from
relative PPP 16
2.3 The quantity theory of money 17
2.4 Traded and non-traded goods prices 18
2.5 Exchange rates, money and prices 19
2.6 Productivity and exchange rates 20
2.7 The time path of a mean reversion process 24
2.8 Estimates of PPP half-lives 26
3.1 Swiss franc exchange rates 1973-1991(nominal, PPP real and
true real versions) 55
3.2 Prices of Swiss traded goods vs. price levels 56
4.1 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Singapore 83
4.2 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Malaysia 83
4.3 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Japan 83
4.4 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Thailand 84
4.5 Real exchange rates: basket vs PPP method, 1973(1)-1996(1),
Korea 84
5.1 Gagon and Unferh's estimates of the world interest rate model:
annual data, 1978-1993 110
7.1 Internal and external prices 147
7.2 Equi-value contours 151
7.3 Internal and external relative prices 152
7.4 World-market clearing 153
7.5 Overall equilibrium 154
7.6 The small-country case 154
W
Figures vii
7.7 The large-country case 155
8.1 Simulated response of US dollar price of gold to a 10 per cent
depreciation of the dollar against: the yen, the DM both 171
9.1 Estimates of the sectoral composition of exports 1913-1914 to
1981-1982 186
9.2 Terms of trade index (ratio of the implicit price deflator for
exports and the implicit price deflator for imports; index base
1975 = 100) 190
9.3 Commodity price index 1960-1986 (1980 = 100) 192
9.4 Terms of trade index (left scale) and effective real exchange
rate index, RCT (right scale) (1974 = 100) 198
9.5 Australia's terms of trade and international competitiveness 200
9.6 World commodity price fluctuations and Australian export
commodity sector 202
9.7 World commodity price fluctuations and Australian import
competing sector 203
9.8 World commodity price fluctuations and non-traded sector 204
Tables
1.1 Real exchange rates: G7 (log changes x 100) 3
1.2 Changes in commodity prices and real interest rates 4
2.1 Big Mac Index search results 13
2.2 Estimates of PPP half-lives 25
2.3 Recent empirical evidence on PPP 28
3.1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit-root tests on basic data:
1974:01-1991:04 48
3.2 Swiss franc/US dollar exchange rate: 1974:02-1991:04 50
3.3 Swiss franc/mini-ECU exchange rate: 1974:02-1991:04 52
3.4 Correlations and unit-root tests, franc/dollar exchange rates:
1973:01-1991:04 57
3.5 Orthogonality tests of Swiss true real exchange rate: 1974:01-
1991:04; NLSYSTEM-GMM estimates of equation (3.8) 60
3.6 Tests of 'unit-sum' restriction: Switzerland, 1974:02-1991:04;
NLSYSTEM-GMM estimates of equation (3.7') on import and
export prices 61
3.7 Orthogonality tests of Swiss PPP real exchange rate: 1974:02-
1991:04; NLSYSTEM-GMM estimates of equation (3.9') 63
3.8 Estimated cointegrating vectors for Swiss exchange rates:
1974:02-1991:04 65
3.9 Orthogonality tests: Swiss true real exchange rates, 1973:02-
1991:04 66
3.10 Percent measurement error in the Swiss PPP real exchange
rate, 1973:02-1991:04 66
3.11 Endogeneity tests onya\ Switzerland, 1974:01-1991:04 73
4.1 DF-ADF unit root: Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Thailand and
Korea, 1973(1)-1996(4) 86
4.2 Sims unit root tests: Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Thailand and
Korea, 1973(1)-1996(4) 88
4.3 Engle and Granger cointegration tests: Singapore, Malaysia,
Japan, Thailand and Korea, 1973(1)-1996(4) 89
Vlll
Tables ix
4.4 Johansen cointegration tests: exports and basket real exchange
rates, 1973(1)-1996(4) 90
4.5 Johansen cointegration tests: exports and PPP real exchange
rates, 1973(1)-1996(4) 91
4.6 Granger causality test: exports, PPP and basket real exchange
rates, 1973(1)-1996(4) 92
5.1 Estimate of the world interest rate model: annual data, 1978-
1993 109
5.2 Estimates of the world interest rate model for seven OECD
countries: annual data, 1978-1993 113
5.3 Estimates of the weighted world interest rate model: annual
data, 1978-1993 114
5.4 Estimates of the world interest rate model for seven OECD
countries: annual data deflated by WPI, 1978-1993 116
5.5 Estimates of the true real interest rate with relative price
changes for seven OECD countries: annual data, 1978-1993 119
6.1 Correlation matrix of bond yield measures: G7 countries,
1975(3)-1998(4) 132
6.2 Summary statistics of bond yield measures: G7 countries,
1975(3)-1998(4) 133
6.3 IPS panel tests for unit roots: G7 countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 134
6.4 Autocorrelations of excess holding returns: G7 countries,
1975(3)-1998(4) 135
6.5 Regression of excess holding return on the yield spread: G7
countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 135
6.6 Regression of the change in one period ahead short rate on the
yield spread: G7 countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 136
6.7 Regression of volatility of interest rates on the yield spread: G7
countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 139
6.8 Regression of actual market covariability on the yield spread:
G7 countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 140
6.9 Regression of nominal exchange rate volatility on the yield
spread: G7 countries, 1975(3)-1998(4) 142
8.1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests on residuals of
cointegration equations: gold prices and exchange rates,
1982(07)-1990(12) 164
8.2 Stationarity and market efficiency tests on forecast error data
1982(2)-1990(4) 165
8.3 OLS estimate of equation (8.4): gold, 1983(01)-1990(12)
(Hansen-Hodrick standard errors) 167
x Tables
8.4 OLS estimate of equation (8.4) with inflation variables: gold,
1983(01)-1990(12) (Hansen-Hodrick standaid errors) 169
8.5 OLS estimate of equation (8.4') with inflation variables and
nine lags on dependent variable: gold, 1983(01)-1990(12)
(Hansen-Hodrick standard errors) 170
8.6 The stability of the gold market and real exchange rates 173
8.7 Stationarity tests on gold price and exchange rate data 177
9.1 Changes in the composition of commodities in Australia's
exports of goods, 1950-1951 to 1988-1989 (percentage share
of total exports) 187
9.2 Measures of trend movements and the volatility of real prices
for selected commodities over the period 1950-1988 191
9.3 Correlation matrix for real commodity prices, 1952-1988 193 |
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| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T22:33:40Z |
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| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1840648430 |
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| spelling | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices ed. by Meher Manzur Cheltenham ; Northampton, Mass. Elgar 2002 XIII, 214 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Foreign exchange rates Interest rates Primary commodities -- Prices International finance Manzur, Meher 1953- (DE-588)131423576 edt HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016844839&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices Foreign exchange rates Interest rates Primary commodities -- Prices International finance |
| title | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices |
| title_auth | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices |
| title_exact_search | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices |
| title_full | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices ed. by Meher Manzur |
| title_fullStr | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices ed. by Meher Manzur |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices ed. by Meher Manzur |
| title_short | Exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices |
| title_sort | exchange rates interest rates and commodity prices |
| topic | Foreign exchange rates Interest rates Primary commodities -- Prices International finance |
| topic_facet | Foreign exchange rates Interest rates Primary commodities -- Prices International finance |
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