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Handbook of quantitative finance and risk management:

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Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	New York [u.a.] Springer
Schlagworte:	Optionspreistheorie Risikomanagement Finanzmathematik Aufsatzsammlung
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
ISBN:	9780387771168 9780387771175

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adam_text	Contents Preface ..................................................................... v Part I Overview of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management Research 1 Theoretical Framework of Finance ...................................... 3 1.1 Introduction ...................................................... 3 1.2 Discounted Cash-Flow Valuation Theory .............................. 3 1.3 M and M Valuation Theory ......................................... 6 1.4 Markowitz Portfolio Theory ........................................ 10 1.5 Capital Asset Pricing Model ........................................ 10 1.6 Arbitrage Pricing Theory ........................................... 12 1.7 Option Valuation .................................................. 14 1.8 Futures Valuation and Hedging ...................................... 15 1.9 Conclusion ....................................................... 22 References ............................................................. 22 2 Investment, Dividend, Financing, and Production Policies: Theory and Implications ..................................................... 23 2.1 Introduction ...................................................... 23 2.2 Investment and Dividend Interactions: The Internal Versus External Financing Decision ................................................ 23 2.3 Interactions Between Dividend and Financing Policies .................. 25 2.4 Interactions Between Financing and Investment Decisions ............... 28 2.5 Implications of Financing and Investment Interactions for Capita! Budgeting .............................................. 30 2.6 Implications of Different Policies on the Beta Coefficient ................ 34 2.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 36 References ............................................................. 36 Appendix 2A Stochastic Dominance and its Applications to Capital-Structure Analysis with Default Risk ......................................... 38 2A. 1 Introduction ............................................... 38 2A.2 Concepts and Theorems of Stochastic Dominance ............... 38 2A.3 Stochastic-Dominance Approach to Investigating the Capital-Structure Problem with Default Risk ................... 39 2A.4 Summary ................................................. 40 Contents 3 Research Methods in Quantitative Finance and Risk Management 41 3.1 Introduction ...................................................... 41 3.2 Statistics ......................................................... 41 3.3 Econometrics ..................................................... 43 3.4 Mathematics ..................................................... 46 3.5 Other Disciplines ................................................. 48 3.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 49 References ............................................................. 50 Part II Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis 4 Foundation of Portfolio Theory ..........................................53 Cheng-Few Lee, Alice С Lee, and John Lee 4.1 Introduction ...................................................... 53 4.2 Risk Classification and Measurement ................................. 53 4.3 Portfolio Analysis and Application ................................... 57 4.4 The Efficient Portfolio and Risk Diversification ........................ 60 4.5 Determination of Commercial Lending Rate ........................... 64 4.6 The Market Rate of Return and Market Risk Premium ................... 66 4.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 68 References ............................................................. 68 5 Risk-Aversion, Capital Asset Allocation, and Markowitz Portfolio-Selection Model .............................................................. 69 Cheng-Few Lee, Joseph E. Finnerty, and Hong-Yi Chen 5.1 Introduction ...................................................... 69 5.2 Measurement of Return and Risk .................................... 69 5.3 Utility Theory, Utility Functions, and Indifference Curves ............... 71 5.4 Efficient Portfolios ................................................ 77 5.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 91 References ............................................................. 91 6 Capital Asset Pricing Model and Beta Forecasting ........................ 93 Cheng-Few Lee, Joseph E. Finnerty, and Donald H. Wort 6.1 Introduction ...................................................... 93 6.2 A Graphical Approach to the Derivation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model .................................................... 93 6.3 Mathematical Approach to the Derivation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model .................................................... 96 6.4 The Market Model and Risk Decomposition ........................... 97 6.5 Growth Rates, Accounting Betas, and Variance in EBIT ................. 100 6.6 Some Applications and Implications of the Capital Asset Pricing Model ... 104 6.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 105 References ............................................................. 105 Appendix 6 A Empirical Evidence for the Risk-Return Relationship ............. 106 Appendix 6B Anomalies in the Semi-strong Efficient-Market Hypothesis ........ 109 7 Index Models for Portfolio Selection .................................... Ill Cheng-Few Lee, Joseph E. Finnerty, and Donald H. Wort 7.1 Introduction ...................................................... Ill 7.2 The Single-Index Model ............................................ Ill 7.3 Multiple Indexes and the Multiple-Index Model ........................ 118 7.4 Conclusion ....................................................... 121 References ............................................................. 122 Contents Appendix 7 A A Linear-Programming Approach to Portfolio-Analysis Models .... 122 Appendix 7B Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance for a Multi-index Model ............................................ 123 8 Performance-Measure Approaches for Selecting Optimum Portfolios ........ 125 Cheng-Few Lee, Hong-Yi Chen, and Jessica Shin-Ying Mai 8.1 Introduction ...................................................... 125 8.2 Sharpe Performance-Measure Approach with Short Sales Allowed ........ 125 8.3 Treynor-Measure Approach with Short Sales Allowed ................... 128 8.4 Treynor-Measure Approach with Short Sales Not Allowed ............... 130 8.5 Impact of Short Sales on Optimal-Weight Determination ................ 132 8.6 Economic Rationale of the Treynor Performance-Measure Method ........ 132 8.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 133 References ............................................................. 133 Appendix 8A Derivation of Equation (8.6).................................. 133 Appendix 8B Derivation of Equation (8.10)................................. 134 Appendix 8C Derivation of Equation (8.15)................................. 135 9 The Creation and Control of Speculative Bubbles in a Laboratory Setting .... 137 James S. Ang, Dean Diavatopoulos, and Thomas V. Schwarz 9.1 Introduction ...................................................... 137 9.2 Bubbles in the Asset Markets ....................................... 139 9.3 Experimental Design .............................................. 140 9.4 Results and Analysis ............................................... 145 9.5 Conclusions ...................................................... 161 References ............................................................. 163 10 Portfolio Optimization Models and Mean-Variance Spanning Tests .......... 165 Wei-Peng Chen, Huimin Chung, Keng-Yu Ho, and Tsui-Ling Hsu 10.1 Introduction of Markowitz Portfolio-Selection Model ................... 165 10.2 Measurement of Return and Risk .................................... 166 10.3 Efficient Portfolio ................................................. 166 10.4 Mean-Variance Spanning Test ...................................... 172 10.5 Alternative Computer Program to Calculate Efficient Frontier ............ 175 10.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 182 References ............................................................. 184 11 Combining Fundamental Measures for Stock Selection .................... 185 Kenton K. Yee 11.1 Introduction ...................................................... 185 11.2 Bayesian Triangulation............................................. 187 11.3 Triangulation in Forensic Valuation .................................. 189 11.4 Bayesian Triangulation in Asset Pricing Settings ....................... 190 11.5 The Data Snooping Trap ........................................... 194 11.6 Using Guidance from Theory to Mitigate Data Snooping ................ 195 11.7 Avoiding Data-Snooping Pitfalls in Financial Statement Analysis ......... 197 11.8 Conclusion ....................................................... 199 References ............................................................. 200 Appendix 1 1A Proof of Theorem 11.1...................................... 201 1 1A.1 Generalization of Theorem 11.1.............................. 201 x¡¡ Contents 12 On Estimation Risk and Power Utility Portfolio Selection .................. 203 Robert R. Grauer and Frederick C. Shen 12.1 Introduction ...................................................... 203 12.2 Literature Review ................................................. 203 12.3 The Multiperiod Investment Model ................................... 205 12.4 The Data ......................................................... 206 12.5 Alternative Ways of Estimating the Joint Return Distribution ............. 206 12.6 Alternate Ways of Evaluating Investment Performance .................. 208 12.7 The Results ...................................................... 210 12.8 Conclusion ....................................................... 216 12.9 Addendum ....................................................... 217 References ............................................................. 218 13 International Portfolio Management: Theory and Method .................. 221 Wan-Jiun Paul Chiou and Cheng-Few Lee 13.1 Introduction ...................................................... 221 13.2 Overview of International Portfolio Management ....................... 222 13.3 Literature Review ................................................. 226 13.4 Forming the Optimal Global Portfolio ................................ 226 13.5 The Benefits of International Diversification Around the World ........... 227 13.6 The Optimal Portfolio Components .................................. 229 13.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 232 References ............................................................. 233 14 The Le Chatelier Principle in the Markowitz Quadratic Programming Investment Model: A Case of World Equity Fund Market .................. 235 Chin W. Yang, Ken Hung, and Jing Cui 14.1 Introduction ...................................................... 235 14.2 Data and Methodology ............................................. 236 14.3 The Le Chatelier Principle in the Markowitz Investment Model ........... 236 14.4 An Application of the Le Chatelier Principle in the World Equity Market ... 237 14.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 245 References ............................................................. 245 15 Risk-Averse Portfolio Optimization via Stochastic Dominance Constraints .... 247 Darinka Dentcheva and Andrzej Ruszczyński 15.1 Introduction ...................................................... 247 15.2 The Portfolio Problem ............................................. 248 15.3 Stochastic Dominance ............................................. 249 15.4 The Dominance-Constrained Portfolio Problem ........................ 252 15.5 Optimality and Duality ............................................. 254 15.6 Numerical Illustration .............................................. 256 15.7 Conclusions ...................................................... 257 References ............................................................. 257 16 Portfolio Analysis .................................................... 259 Jack Clark Francis 16.1 Introduction ...................................................... 259 16.2 Inputs for Portfolio Analysis ........................................ 259 16.3 The Security Analyst s Job ......................................... 259 16.4 Four Assumptions Underlying Portfolio Analysis ....................... 260 16.5 Different Approaches to Diversification ............................... 260 16.6 A Portfolio s Expected Return Formula ............................... 261 16.7 The Quadratic Risk Formula for a Portfolio ............................ 261 16.8 The Covariance Between Returns from Two Assets ..................... 262 Contents 16.9 Portfolio Analysis of a Two-Asset Portfolio ........................... 262 16.10 Mathematical Portfolio Analysis ..................................... 265 16.11 Calculus Minimization of Risk: A Three-Security Portfolio .............. 265 16.12 Conclusion ....................................................... 266 References ............................................................. 266 17 Portfolio Theory, CAPM and Performance Measures ...................... 267 Luis Ferruz, Fernando Gómez-Bezares, and María Vargas 17.1 Portfolio Theory and CAPM: Foundations and Current Application ....... 267 17.2 Performance Measures Related to Portfolio Theory and the CAPM: Classic Indices, Derivative Indices, and New Approaches ....................... 274 17.3 Empirical Analysis: Performance Rankings and Performance Persistence ... 277 17.4 Summary and Conclusions .......................................... 280 References ............................................................. 280 18 Intertemporal Equilibrium Models, Portfolio Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model ....................................................... 283 Stephen J. Brown 18.1 Introduction ...................................................... 283 18.2 Intertemporal Equilibrium Models ................................... 283 18.3 Relationship to Observed Security Returns ............................ 284 18.4 Intertemporal Equilibrium and the Capital Asset Pricing Model ........... 285 18.5 Hansen Jagannathan Bounds ........................................ 285 18.6 Are Stochastic Discount Factors Positive? ............................. 286 18.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 286 References ............................................................. 287 19 Persistence, Predictability, and Portfolio Planning ........................ 289 Michael J. Brennan and Yihong Xia 19.1 Introduction ...................................................... 289 19.2 Detecting and Exploiting Predictability ............................... 290 19.3 Stock Price Variation and Variation in the Expected Returns .............. 296 19.4 Economic Significance of Predictability ............................... 298 19.5 Forecasts of Equity Returns ......................................... 303 19.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 314 References ............................................................. 314 Appendix 19A The Optimal Strategy ....................................... 315 Appendix 19B The Unconditional Strategy .................................. 316 Appendix 19C The Myopic Strategy ....................................... 317 Appendix 19D The Optimal Buy-and-HoId Strategy .......................... 317 20 Portfolio Insurance Strategies: Review of Theory and Empirical Studies ..... 319 Lan-chih Ho, John Cadle, and Michael Theobald 20.1 Introduction ...................................................... 319 20.2 Theory of Alternative Portfolio Insurance Strategies .................... 319 20.3 Empirical Comparison of Alternative Portfolio Insurance Strategies ....... 324 20.4 Recent Market Developments ....................................... 329 20.5 Implications for Financial Market Stability ............................ 331 20.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 332 References ............................................................. 332 Contents 21 Security Market Microstructure: The Analysis of a Non-Frictionless Market ............................................................. 333 Reto Francioni, Sonali Hazarika, Martin Reck, and Robert A. Schwartz 21.1 Introduction ...................................................... 333 21.2 Microstrocture s Challenge ......................................... 334 21.3 The Perfectly Liquid Environment of CAPM .......................... 335 21.4 What Microstructure Analysis Has to Offer: Personal Reflections ......... 339 21.5 From Theory to Application ........................................ 344 21.6 Deutsche Börse: The Emergence of a Modern, Electronic Market ......... 345 21.7 Conclusion: The Roadmap and the Road .............................. 347 References ............................................................. 347 Appendix 21 A Risk Aversion and Risk Premium Measures .................... 349 21A.1 Risk Aversion ............................................. 349 21A.2 Risk Premiums ............................................ 349 Appendix 21B Designing Xetra ........................................... 350 21B.1 Continuous Trading ........................................ 350 21B.2 Call Auction Trading ....................................... 351 21B.3 Electronic Trading for Less Liquid Stocks ...................... 351 21 B.4 Xetra s Implementation and the Migration of Liquidity to Xetra Since 1997........................................ 352 Part III Options and Option Pricing Theory 22 Options Strategies and Their Applications ................................355 Cheng Few Lee, John Lee, and Wei-Kang Shih 22.1 Introduction ...................................................... 355 22.2 The Option Market and Related Definitions ........................... 355 22.3 Put-Call Parity .................................................... 360 22.4 Risk-Return Characteristics of Options ............................... 363 22.5 Examples of Alternative Option Strategies ............................ 372 22.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 375 References ............................................................. 375 23 Option Pricing Theory and Firm Valuation .............................. 377 Cheng Few Lee, Joseph E. Finnerty, and Wei-Kang Shih 23.1 Introduction ...................................................... 377 23.2 Basic Concepts of Options .......................................... 377 23.3 Factors Affecting Option Value ...................................... 380 23.4 Determining the Value of Options .................................... 384 23.5 Option Pricing Theory and Capital Structure ........................... 387 23.6 Warrants ......................................................... 390 23.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 391 References ............................................................. 392 24 Applications of the Binomial Distribution to Evaluate Call Options .......... 393 Alice С Lee, John Lee, and Jessica Shin-Ying Mai 24.1 Introduction ...................................................... 393 24.2 What Is an Option? ................................................ 393 24.3 The Simple Binomial Option Pricing Model ........................... 393 24.4 The Generalized Binomial Option Pricing Model ....................... 395 24.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 397 References ............................................................. 397 Contents 25 Multinomial Option Pricing Model..................................... 399 Cheng Few Lee and Jack С. Lee 25.1 Introduction ...................................................... 399 25.2 Multinomial Option Pricing Model ................................... 399 25.3 A Lattice Framework for Option Pricing .............................. 402 25.4 Conclusion ....................................................... 406 References ............................................................. 406 Appendix 25 A .......................................................... 406 26 Two Alternative Binomial Option Pricing Model Approaches to Derive Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model .................................... 409 Cheng-Few Lee and Carl Shu-Ming Lin 26.1 Introduction ...................................................... 409 26.2 The Two-State Option Pricing Model of Rendleman and Bartter .......... 409 26.3 The Binomial Option Pricing Model of Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein ........ 415 26.4 Comparison of the Two Approaches .................................. 417 26.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 418 References ............................................................. 418 Appendix 26A The Binomial Theorem ..................................... 419 27 Normal, Lognormal Distribution and Option Pricing Model ................ 421 Cheng Few Lee, Jack C. Lee, and Alice C. Lee 27.1 Introduction ...................................................... 421 27.2 The Normal Distribution ........................................... 421 27.3 The Lognormal Distribution ........................................ 422 27.4 The Lognormal Distribution and Its Relationship to the Normal Distribution ...................................................... 422 27.5 Multivariate Normal and Lognormal Distributions ...................... 423 27.6 The Normal Distribution as an Application to the Binomial and Poisson Distributions ........................................... 425 27.7 Applications of the Lognormal Distribution in Option Pricing ............ 426 27.8 Conclusion ....................................................... 428 References ............................................................. 428 28 Bivariate Option Pricing Models ....................................... 429 Cheng Few Lee, Alice C. Lee, and John Lee 28.1 Introduction ...................................................... 429 28.2 The Bivariate Normal Density Function ............................... 429 28.3 American Call Option and the Bivariate Normal CDF ................... 430 28.4 Valuating American Options ........................................ 431 28.5 Non-Dividend-Paying Stocks ....................................... 433 28.6 Dividend-Paying Stocks ............................................ 433 28.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 438 References ............................................................. 438 29 Displaced Log Normal and Lognormal American Option Pricing: A Comparison ....................................................... 439 Ren-Raw Chen and Cheng-Few Lee 29.1 Introduction ...................................................... 439 29.2 The American Option Pricing Model Under the Lognormal Process ....... 439 29.3 The Geske-Roll-Whaley Model ...................................... 440 29.4 Conclusion ....................................................... 442 References ............................................................. 442 Appendix 29A .......................................................... 443 xvi Contents 30 Itô s Calculus and the Derivation of the Black-Scholes Option-Pricing Model . 447 George Chalamandaris and A.G. Malliaris 30.1 Introduction ...................................................... 447 30.2 The ITO Process and Financial Modeling ............................. 447 30.3 ITÔ S Lemma .................................................... 451 30.4 Stochastic Differential-Equation Approach to Stock-price Behavior ....... 452 30.5 The Pricing of an Option ........................................... 454 30.6 A Reexamination of Option Pricing .................................. 455 30.7 Extending the Risk-Neutral Argument: The Martingale Approach ......... 458 30.8 Remarks on Option Pricing ......................................... 463 30.9 Conclusion ....................................................... 465 References ............................................................. 465 Appendix 30A An Alternative Method To Derive the Black-Scholes Option-Pricing Model .............................................. 466 30A. 1 Assumptions and the Present Value of the Expected Terminal Option Price .............................................. 466 30A.2 Present Value of the Partial Expectation of the Terminal Stock Price ............................................... 467 30A.3 Present Value of the Exercise Price under Uncertainty ............ 469 31 Constant Elasticity of Variance Option Pricing Model: Integration and Detailed Derivation ............................................... 471 Y.L. Hsu, T.I. Lin, and CF. Lee 31.1 Introduction ...................................................... 471 31.2 The CEV Diffusion and Its Transition Probability Density Function ....... 471 31.3 Review of Noncentral Chi-Square Distribution ......................... 473 31.4 The Noncentral Chi-square Approach to Option Pricing Model ........... 474 31.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 478 References ............................................................. 478 Appendix 31 A Proof of Feller s Lemma .................................... 478 32 Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing Models .............................. 481 Cheng Few Lee and Jack C. Lee 32.1 Introduction ...................................................... 481 32.2 Nonclosed-Form Type of Option Pricing Model ........................ 481 32.3 Review of Characteristic Function ................................... 485 32.4 Closed-Form Type of Option Pricing Model ........................... 485 32.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 489 References ............................................................. 489 Appendix 32A The Market Price of the Risk ................................. 489 33 Derivations and Applications of Greek Letters: Review and Integration ...... 491 Hong-Yi Chen, Cheng-Few Lee, and Weikang Shih 33.1 Introduction ...................................................... 491 33.2 Delta (Δ) ........................................................ 491 33.3 Theta (Θ) ........................................................ 494 33.4 Gamma (Г) ...................................................... 496 33.5 Vega (v) ......................................................... 498 33.6 Rho (p) .......................................................... 500 33.7 Derivation of Sensitivity for Stock Options Respective with Exercise Price ................................................ 501 33.8 Relationship Between Delta, Theta, and Gamma ....................... 502 33.9 Conclusion ....................................................... 503 References ............................................................. 503 Contents 34 A Further Analysis of the Convergence Rates and Patterns of the Binomial Models ............................................................. 505 San-Lin Chung and Pai -Та Shih 34.1 Brief Review of the Binomial Models ................................ 505 34.2 The Importance of Node Positioning for Monotonie Convergence ......... 506 34.3 The Flexibility of GCRR Model for Node Positioning ................... 507 34.4 Numerical Results of Various GCRR Models .......................... 507 34.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 510 References ............................................................. 513 Appendix 34A Extrapolation Formulas for Various GCRR Models .............. 513 35 Estimating Implied Probabilities from Option Prices and the Underlying ..... 515 Bruce Mizrach 35.1 Introduction ...................................................... 515 35.2 Black Scholes Baseline ............................................ 516 35.3 Empirical Departures from Black Scholes ............................. 517 35.4 Beyond Black Scholes ............................................. 518 35.5 Histogram Estimators .............................................. 518 35.6 Tree Methods ..................................................... 520 35.7 Local Volatility Functions .......................................... 522 35.8 PDF Approaches .................................................. 522 35.9 Inferences from the Mixture Model .................................. 524 35.10 Jump Processes ................................................... 526 35.11 Conclusion ....................................................... 528 References ............................................................. 528 36 Are Tails Fat Enough to Explain Smile .................................. 531 Ren-Raw Chen, Oded Palmon, and John Wald 36.1 Introduction ...................................................... 531 36.2 Literature Review ................................................. 532 36.3 The Models ...................................................... 533 36.4 Data and Empirical Results ......................................... 537 36.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 541 References ............................................................. 541 Appendix 36A .......................................................... 542 36A. 1 The Derivation of the Lognormal Model Under No Rebalancing ... 542 36A.2 Continuous Rebalancing .................................... 543 36A.3 Smoothing Techniques ...................................... 543 36A.4 Results of Sub-Sample Testing ............................... 544 37 Option Pricing and Hedging Performance Under Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates .......................................... 547 Gurdip Bakshi, Charles Cao, and Zhiwu Chen 37.1 Introduction ...................................................... 547 37.2 The Option Pricing Model .......................................... 549 37.3 Data Description .................................................. 556 37.4 Empirical Tests ................................................... 557 37.5 Conclusions ...................................................... 571 References ............................................................. 571 Appendix 37A .......................................................... 572 xv¡¡¡ Contents 38 Application of the Characteristic Function in Financial Research ........... 575 H.W. Chuang, Y.L. Hsu, and CF. Lee 38.1 Introduction ...................................................... 575 38.2 The Characteristic Functions ........................................ 575 38.3 CEV Option Pricing Model ......................................... 576 38.4 Options with Stochastic Volatility .................................... 577 38.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 581 References ............................................................. 581 39 Asian Options ....................................................... 583 Itzhak Venezia 39.1 Introduction ...................................................... 583 39.2 Valuation ........................................................ 584 39.3 Conclusion ....................................................... 586 References ............................................................. 586 40 Numerical Valuation of Asian Options with Higher Moments in the Underlying Distribution ......................................... 587 Kehluh Wang and Ming-Feng Hsu 40.1 Introduction ...................................................... 587 40.2 Definitions and the Basic Binomial Model ............................. 588 40.3 Edgeworth Binomial Model for Asian Option Valuation ................. 589 40.4 Upper Bound and Lower Bound for European Asian Options ............. 591 40.5 Upper Bound and Lower Bound for American Asian Options ............. 593 40.6 Numerical Examples ............................................... 594 40.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 602 References ............................................................. 602 41 The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options ...... 605 Mark Rubinstein 41.1 Introduction ...................................................... 605 41.2 Uncertain Income Streams: General Case ............................. 606 41.3 Uncertain Income Streams: Special Case .............................. 608 41.4 Options .......................................................... 611 41.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 613 References ............................................................. 613 Appendix 41 A The Divariate Normal Density Function ........................ 614 42 Binomial OPM, Black-Scholes OPM and Their Relationship: Decision Tree and Microsoft Excel Approach ......................................... 617 John Lee 42.1 Introduction ...................................................... 617 42.2 Call and Put Options ............................................... 617 42.3 One Period Option Pricing Model .................................... 618 42.4 Two-Period Option Pricing Model ................................... 621 42.5 Using Microsoft Excel to Create the Binomial Option Trees .............. 622 42.6 Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model ................................. 624 42.7 Relationship Between the Binomial OPM and the Black-Scholes OPM ___ 625 42.8 Decision Tree Black-Scholes Calculation ............................. 626 42.9 Conclusion ....................................................... 626 References ............................................................. 627 Appendix 42A Excel VBA Code: Binomial Option Pricing Model .............. 627 Contents Part IV Risk Management 43 Combinatorial Methods for Constructing Credit Risk Ratings ...............639 Alexander Kogan and Miguel A. Lejeune 43.1 Introduction ...................................................... 639 43.2 Logical Analysis of Data: An Overview ............................... 641 43.3 Absolute Creditworthiness: Credit Risk Ratings of Financial Institutions ... 643 43.4 Relative Creditworthiness: Country Risk Ratings ....................... 648 43.5 Conclusions ...................................................... 659 References ............................................................. 660 Appendix 43A .......................................................... 662 44 The Structural Approach to Modeling Credit Risk ........................ 665 Jing-zhi Huang 44.1 Introduction ...................................................... 665 44.2 Structural Credit Risk Models ....................................... 665 44.3 Empirical Evidence ................................................ 668 44.4 Conclusion ....................................................... 671 References ............................................................. 671 45 An Empirical Investigation of the Rationales for Integrated Risk-Management Behavior ............................................................ 675 Michael S. Pagano 45.1 Introduction ...................................................... 675 45.2 Theories of Risk-Management, Previous Research, and Testable Hypotheses ...................................................... 677 45.3 Data, Sample Selection, and Empirical Methodology .................... 685 45.4 Empirical Results ................................................. 689 45.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 694 References ............................................................. 694 46 Copula, Correlated Defaults, and Credit VaR ............................ 697 Jow-Ran Chang and An-Chi Chen 46.1 Introduction ...................................................... 697 46.2 Methodology ..................................................... 698 46.3 Experimental Results .............................................. 703 46.4 Conclusion ....................................................... 710 References ............................................................. 711 47 Unspanned Stochastic Volatilities and Interest Rate Derivatives Pricing ...... 713 Feng Zhao 47.1 Introduction ...................................................... 713 47.2 Term Structure Models with Spanned Stochastic Volatility ............... 716 47.3 LIBOR Market Models with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps: Theory and Estimation .................................................... 723 47.4 Nonparametric Estimation of the Forward Density ...................... 734 47.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 746 References ............................................................. 746 Appendix 47A The Derivation for QTSMs .................................. 748 Appendix 47B The Implementation of the Kalman Filter ...................... 750 Appendix 47C Derivation of the Characteristic Function ....................... 751 xx Contents 48 Catastrophic Losses and Alternative Risk Transfer Instruments ............. 753 Jin-Ping Lee and Min-Teh Yu 48.1 Introduction ...................................................... 753 48.2 Catastrophe Bonds ................................................ 753 48.3 Catastrophe Equity Puts ............................................ 757 48.4 Catastrophe Derivatives ............................................ 760 48.5 Reinsurance with CAT-Linked Securities .............................. 763 48.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 764 References ............................................................. 766 49 A Real Option Approach to the Comprehensive Analysis of Bank Consolidation Values ................................................. 767 Chuang-Chang Chang, Pei-Fang Hsieh, and Hung-Neng Lai 49.1 Introduction ...................................................... 767 49.2 The Model ....................................................... 768 49.3 Case Study ....................................................... 771 49.4 Results .......................................................... 775 49.5 Conclusions ...................................................... 777 References ............................................................. 777 Appendix 49A The Correlations Between the Standard Wiener Process Generated from a Bank s Net Interest Income ................................... 778 Appendix 49B The Risk-Adjusted Processes ................................. 778 Appendix 49C The Discrete Version of the Risk-Adjusted Process .............. 778 50 Dynamic Econometric Loss Model: A Default Study of US Subprime Markets 779 C.H. Ted Hong 50.1 Introduction ...................................................... 779 50.2 Model Framework ................................................. 780 50.3 Default Modeling ................................................. 782 50.4 Prepayment Modeling ............................................. 792 50.5 Delinquency Study ................................................ 797 50.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 800 References ............................................................. 802 Appendix 50A Default and Prepayment Definition ............................ 802 Appendix 50B General Model Framework .................................. 803 Appendix 50C Default Specification ....................................... 803 Appendix 50D Prepayment Specification .................................... 805 51 The Effect of Default Risk on Equity Liquidity: Evidence Based on the Panel Threshold Model ..................................................... 807 Huimin Chung, Wei-Peng Chen, and Yu-Dan Chen 51.1 Introduction ...................................................... 807 51.2 Data and Methodology ............................................. 808 51.3 Empirical Results ................................................. 812 51.4 Conclusion ....................................................... 815 References ............................................................. 815 Appendix 51 A .......................................................... 816 52 Put Option Approach to Determine Bank Risk Premium ................... 819 Dar Yeh Hwang, Fu-Shuen Shie, and Wei-Hsiung Wu 52.1 Introduction ...................................................... 819 52.2 Evaluating Insurer s Liability by Option Pricing Model: Merton( 1977)___ 820 52.3 Extensions of Merton( 1977)........................................ 820 52.4 Applications for Merton (1977)...................................... 823 Contents 52.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 825 References ............................................................. 826 Appendix 52A .......................................................... 826 Appendix 52B .......................................................... 827 53 Keiretsu Style Main Bank Relationships, R&D Investment, Leverage, and Firm Value: Quantile Regression Approach .......................... 829 Hai-Chin Yu, Chih-Sean Chen, and Der-Tzon Hsieh 53.1 Introduction ...................................................... 829 53.2 Literature Review ................................................. 831 53.3 Data and Sample .................................................. 831 53.4 Empirical Results and Analysis ...................................... 836 53.5 Conclusions and Discussion ........................................ 840 References ............................................................. 841 54 On the Feasibility of Laddering ........................................ 843 Joshua Ronen and Bharat Sarath 54.1 Introduction ...................................................... 843 54.2 The Model ....................................................... 845 54.3 Results .......................................................... 849 54.4 Conclusion ....................................................... 851 References ............................................................. 851 55 Stock Returns, Extreme Values, and Conditional Skewed Distribution ....... 853 Thomas С Chiang and Jiandong Li 55.1 Introduction ...................................................... 853 55.2 The AGARCH Model Based on the EGB2 Distribution .................. 854 55.3 Data ............................................................ 855 55.4 Empirical Evidence ................................................ 856 55.5 Distributional Fit Test .............................................. 859 55.6 The Implication of the EGB2 Distribution ............................. 859 55.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 861 References ............................................................. 862 56 Capital Structure in Asia and CEO Entrenchment ........................ 863 Kin Wai Lee and Gillian Hian Heng Yeo 56.1 Introduction ...................................................... 863 56.2 Prior Research and Hypothesis ...................................... 864 56.3 Data and Method .................................................. 865 56.4 Results .......................................................... 867 56.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 871 References ............................................................. 871 Appendix 56A Variables Definition ........................................ 872 57 A Generalized Model for Optimum Futures Hedge Ratio .................. 873 Cheng-Few Lee, Jang-Yi Lee, Kehluh Wang, and Yuan-Chung Sheu 57.1 Introduction ...................................................... 873 57.2 GIG and GH Distributions .......................................... 876 57.3 Futures Hedge Ratios .............................................. 877 57.4 Estimation and Simulation .......................................... 879 57.5 Conclusion ....................................................... 880 References ............................................................. 880 Appendix 57 A .......................................................... 881 xx¡¡ Contents 58 The Sensitivity of Corporate Bond Volatility to Macroeconomic Announcements ..................................................... 883 Nikolay Kosturov and Duane Stock 58.1 Introduction ...................................................... 883 58.2 Theory and Hypotheses ............................................ 884 58.3 Data and Return Computations ...................................... 886 58.4 Descriptive Statistics of Daily Excess Returns ......................... 886 58.5 OLS Regressions of Volatility and Excess Returns ...................... 897 58.6 Conditional Variance Models ........................................ 899 58.7 Alternative GARCH Models ........................................ 903 58.8 Conclusion ....................................................... 910 References ............................................................. 912 Appendix 58A .......................................................... 913 59 Raw Material Convenience Yields and Business Cycle ..................... 915 Chang-Wen Duan and William T. Lin 59.1 Introduction ...................................................... 915 59.2 Characteristics of Study Commodities ................................ 917 59.3 The Model ....................................................... 919 59.4 Data ............................................................ 921 59.5 Empirical Results ................................................. 922 59.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 930 References ............................................................. 931 60 Alternative Methods to Determine Optimal Capital Structure: Theory and Application ............................................... 933 Sheng-Syan Chen, Cheng-Few Lee, and Han-Hsing Lee 60.1 Introduction ...................................................... 933 60.2 The Traditional Theory of Optimal Capital Structure .................... 934 60.3 Optimal Capital Structure in the Contingent Claims Framework .......... 936 60.4 Recent Development of Capital Structure Models ...................... 941 60.5 Application and Empirical Evidence of Capital Structure Models ......... 948 60.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 950 References ............................................................. 950 61 Actuarial Mathematics and Its Applications in Quantitative Finance ......... 953 Cho-Jieh Chen 61.1 Introduction ...................................................... 953 61.2 Actuarial Discount and Accumulation Functions ....................... 953 61.3 Actuarial Mathematics of Insurance .................................. 955 61.4 Actuarial Mathematics of Annuity ................................... 958 61.5 Actuarial Premiums and Actuarial Reserves ........................... 959 61.6 Applications in Quantitative Finance ................................. 961 61.7 Conclusion ....................................................... 963 References ............................................................. 963 62 The Prediction of Default with Outliers: Robust Logistic Regression ......... 965 Chung-Hua Shen, Yi-Kai Chen, and Bor-Yi Huang 62.1 Introduction ...................................................... 965 62.2 Literature Review of Outliers in Conventional and in Logit Regression ..... 966 62.3 Five Validation Tests ............................................... 967 62.4 Source of Data and Empirical Model ................................. 969 62.5 Empirical Results ................................................. 969 62.6 Conclusion ....................................................... 973 References ............................................................. 976 Contents 63 Term Structure of Default-Free and Defaultable Securities: Theory and Empirical Evidence ........................................ 979 Hai Lin and Chunchi Wu 63.1 Introduction ...................................................... 979 63.2 Definitions and Notations ........................................... 980 63.3 Bond Pricing in Dynamic Term Structure Model Framework ............. 980 63.4 Dynamic Term Structure Models .................................... 981 63.5 Models of Defaultable Bonds ....................................... 988 63.6 Interest Rate and Credit Default Swaps ............................... 996 63.7 Concluding Remarks ..............................................1001 References .............................................................1001 64 Liquidity Risk and Arbitrage Pricing Theory ............................1007 Umut Çetin, Robert A. Jarrow, and Philip Protter 64.1 Introduction ......................................................1007 64.2 The Model .......................................................1009 64.3 The Extended First Fundamental Theorem ............................1011 64.4 The Extended Second Fundamental Theorem ..........................1012 64.5 Example (Extended Black-Scholes Economy) .........................1015 64.6 Discontinuous Supply Curve Evolutions ..............................1016 64.7 Conclusion .......................................................1017 References .............................................................1017 Appendix 64A ..........................................................1018 65 An Integrated Model of Debt Issuance, Refunding, and Maturity ............1025 Manak C. Gupta and Alice С Lee 65.1 Introduction ......................................................1025 65.2 The Model .......................................................1026 65.3 Operationalizing the Model .........................................1029 65.4 Numerical Illustration ..............................................1032 65.5 Conclusions ......................................................1036 References .............................................................1037 Part V Theory, Methodology, and Applications 66 Business Models: Applications to Capital Budgeting, Equity Value, and Return Attribution ...............................................1041 Thomas S. Y. Ho and Sang Bin Lee 66.1 Introduction ......................................................1041 66.2 The Model Assumptions ...........................................1042 66.3 Simulation Results of the Capital Budgeting Decisions ..................1045 66.4 Relative Valuation of Equity ........................................1048 66.5 Equity Return Attribution ..........................................1050 66.6 Conclusion .......................................................1051 References .............................................................1051 Appendix 66 A Derivation of the Risk Neutral Probability ......................1052 Appendix 66B The Model for the Fixed Operating Cost at Time Τ ..............1052 Appendix 66C The Valuation Model Using the Recombining Lattice ............1053 Appendix 66D Input Data of the Model .....................................1054 xxiv Contents 67 Dividends Versus Reinvestments in Continuous Time: A More General Model ......................................................1055 Ren-Raw Chen, Ben Logan, Oded Palmon, and Larry Shepp 67.1 Introduction ......................................................1055 67.2 The Model .......................................................1055 67.3 The Solution .....................................................1057 67.4 Expected Bankruptcy Time .........................................1058 67.5 Further Remarks ..................................................1059 67.6 Conclusion .......................................................1059 References .............................................................1060 68 Segmenting Financial Services Market: An Empirical Study of Statistical and Non-parametric Methods ..........................................1061 Kenneth Lawrence, Dinesh Pai, Ronald Klimberg, Stephen Kudbya, and Sheila Lawrence 68.1 Introduction ......................................................1061 68.2 Methodology .....................................................1062 68.3 Evaluating the Classification Function ................................1064 68.4 Experimental Design ..............................................1065 68.5 Results ..........................................................1065 68.6 Conclusions ......................................................1066 References .............................................................1066 69 Spurious Regression and Data Mining in Conditional Asset Pricing Models ... 1067 Wayne Ferson, Sergei Sarkissian, and Timothy Simin 69.1 Introduction ......................................................1067 69.2 Spurious Regression and Data Mining in Predictive Regressions ..........1068 69.3 Spurious Regression, Data Mining, and Conditional Asset Pricing .........1069 69.4 The Data .........................................................1069 69.5 The Models ......................................................1071 69.6 Results for Predictive Regressions ...................................1073 69.7 Results for Conditional Asset Pricing Models ..........................1080 69.8 Solutions to the Problems of Spurious Regression and Data Mining .......1086 69.9 Robustness of the Asset Pricing Results ...............................1087 69.10 Conclusions ......................................................1088 References .............................................................1089 70 Issues Related to the Errors-in-Variables Problems in Asset Pricing Tests .....1091 Dongcheol Kim 70.1 Introduction ......................................................1091 70.2 The Errors-in-Variables Problem .....................................1092 70.3 A Correction for the Errors-in-Variables Bias ..........................1094 70.4 Results ..........................................................1099 70.5 Conclusions ......................................................1108 References .............................................................1108 71 McMC Estimation of Multiscale Stochastic Volatility Models ...............1109 German Molina, Chuan-Hsiang Han, and Jean-Pierre Fouque 71.1 Introduction ......................................................1109 71.2 Multiscale Modeling and McMC Estimation ...........................1110 71.3 Simulation Study ..................................................1113 71.4 Empirical Application: FX Data .....................................1113 7 і .5 Implication on Derivatives Pricing and Hedging ........................1118 Contents xxv 71.6 Conclusions...................................................... 1118 References .............................................................1119 Appendix 7 IA Proof of Independent Factor Equivalence ......................1119 Appendix71B Full Conditionals ...........................................1120 72 Regime Shifts and the Term Structure of Interest Rates ....................1121 Chien-Chung Nieh, Shu Wu, and Yong Zeng 72.1 Introduction ......................................................1121 72.2 Regime-Switching and Short-Term Interest Rate .......................1122 72.3 Regime-Switching Term Structure Models in Discreet Time ..............1126 72.4 Regime-Switching Term Structure Models in Continuous Time ...........1128 72.5 Conclusion .......................................................1133 References .............................................................1133 73 ARM Processes and Their Modeling and Forecasting Methodology ..........1135 Benjamin Melamed 73.1 Introduction ......................................................1135 73.2 Overview of ARM Processes ........................................1136 73.3 The ARM Modeling Methodology ...................................1139 73.4 The ARM Forecasting Methodology .................................1140 73.5 Example: ARM Modeling of an S&P 500 Time Series ..................1145 73.6 Summary ........................................................1148 References .............................................................1149 74 Alternative Econometric Methods for Information-based Equity-selling Mechanisms .........................................................1151 Lee Cheng-Few and Yi Lin Wu 74.1 Introduction ......................................................1151 74.2 The Information Contents of Equity-Selling Mechanisms ................1152 74.3 Alternative Econometric Methods for Information-Based Equity-Selling Mechanisms ......................................................1153 74.4 Conclusions ......................................................1161 References .............................................................1162 75 Implementation Problems and Solutions in Stochastic Volatility Models of the Heston Type .........................................................1165 Jia-Hau Guo and Mao-Wei Hung 75.1 Introduction ......................................................1165 75.2 The Transform-Based Solution for Heston s Stochastic Volatility Model ... 1165 75.3 Solutions to the Discontinuity Problem of Heston s Formula .............1168 75.4 Conclusion .......................................................1170 References .............................................................1171 76 Revisiting Volume vs. GARCH Effects Using Univariate and Bivariate GARCH Models: Evidence from U.S. Stock Markets ......................1173 Zhuo Qiao and Wing-Keung Wong 76.1 Introduction ......................................................1173 76.2 The Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis ...............................1175 76.3 Data and Methodology .............................................1175 76.4 Empirical Findings in NYSE ........................................1176 76.5 Conclusion .......................................................1178 References .............................................................1179 Appendix 76A ..........................................................1180 Contents 77 Application of Fuzzy Set Theory to Finance Research: Method and Application ......................................................1183 Shin-Yun Wang and Cheng Few Lee 77.1 Introduction ......................................................1183 77.2 Fuzzy Set ........................................................1184 77.3 Applications of Fuzzy Set Theory ....................................1190 77.4 A Example of Fuzzy Binomial 0PM .................................1194 77.5 An Example of Real Options ........................................1196 77.6 Fuzzy Regression .................................................1197 77.7 Conclusion .......................................................1198 References .............................................................1199 78 Hedonic Regression Analysis in Real Estate Markets: A Primer .............1201 Ben J. Sopranzetti 78.1 Introduction ......................................................1201 78.2 The Theoretical Foundation .........................................1201 78.3 The Data .........................................................1202 78.4 The Linear Model .................................................1202 78.5 Empirical Specification ............................................1203 78.6 The Semi-Log Model ..............................................1204 78.7 The Box -Сох Model ...............................................1205 78.8 Problems with Hedonic Modeling ....................................1205 78.9 Recent Developments ..............................................1206 78.10 Conclusion .......................................................1207 References .............................................................1207 79 Numerical Solutions of Financial Partial Differential Equations .............1209 Gang Nathan Dong 79.1 Introduction ......................................................1209 79.2 The Model .......................................................1209 79.3 Discretization ....................................................1210 79.4 Finite Difference ..................................................1210 79.5 Finite Volume ....................................................1217 79.6 Finite Element ....................................................1218 79.7 Empirical Result ..................................................1219 79.8 Conclusion .......................................................1220 References .............................................................1220 Further Reading ........................................................1221 80 A Primer on the Implicit Financing Assumptions of Traditional Capital Budgeting Approaches ................................................1223 Ivan E. Brick and Daniel G. Weaver 80.1 Introduction ......................................................1223 80.2 Textbook Approaches to NPV .......................................1224 80.3 Theoretical Valuation of Cash Flows .................................1226 80.4 An Example ......................................................1228 80.5 Personal Tax and Miller Equilibrium .................................1229 80.6 Conclusion .......................................................1231 References .............................................................1232 81 Determinants of Flows into U-S.-Based International Mutual Funds .........1235 Dilip K. Patro 81.1 Introduction ......................................................1235 81.2 Motivation and Hypotheses .........................................1236 Contents 81.3 Data............................................................1237 81.4 Methodology and Empirical Results ..................................1238 81.5 Conclusion .......................................................1247 References .............................................................1253 Appendix 81 A Econometric Analysis of Panel Data ..........................1253 82 Predicting Bond Yields Using Defensive Forecasting .......................1257 Glenn Shafer and Samuel Ring 82.1 Introduction ......................................................1257 82.2 Game-Theoretic Probability .........................................1260 82.3 Defensive Forecasting .............................................1265 82.4 Predicting Bond Yields .............................................1269 82.5 Conclusion .......................................................1271 References .............................................................1271 83 Range Volatility Models and Their Applications in Finance .................1273 Ray Yeutien Chou, Hengchih Chou, and Nathan Liu 83.1 Introduction ......................................................1273 83.2 The Price Range Estimators .........................................1274 83.3 The Range-Based Volatility Models ..................................1276 83.4 The Realized Range Volatility .......................................1278 83.5 The Financial Applications and Limitations of the Range Volatility ........1279 83.6 Conclusion .......................................................1279 References .............................................................1280 84 Examining the Impact of the U.S. IT Stock Market on Other IT Stock Markets ....................................................1283 Zhuo Qiao, Venus Khim-Sen Liew, and Wing-Keung Wong 84.1 Introduction ......................................................1283 84.2 Data and Methodology .............................................1284 84.3 Empirical Results .................................................1285 84.4 Conclusions ......................................................1289 References .............................................................1289 Appendix 84A ..........................................................1290 85 Application of Alternative ODE in Finance and Economics Research ........1293 Cheng-Few Lee and Junmin Shi 85.1 Introduction ......................................................1293 85.2 Ordinary Differential Equation ......................................1294 85.3 Applications of ODE in Deterministic System .........................1295 85.4 Applications of ODE in Stochastic System ............................1297 85.5 Conclusion .......................................................1300 References .............................................................1300 86 Application of Simultaneous Equation in Finance Research ................1301 Carl R. Chen and Cheng Few Lee 86.1 Introduction ......................................................1301 86.2 Two-Stage and Three-Stage Least Squares Method .....................1302 86.3 Application of Simultaneous Equation in Finance Research ..............1305 86.4 Conclusion .......................................................1305 References .............................................................1306 Contents 87 The Fuzzy Set and Data Mining Applications in Accounting and Finance .....1307 Wikil Kwak, Yong Shi, and Cheng-Few Lee 87.1 Introduction ......................................................1307 87.2 A Fuzzy Approach to International Transfer Pricing ....................1307 87.3 A Fuzzy Set Approach to Human Resource Allocation of a CPA Firm .....1312 87.4 A Fuzzy Set Approach to Accounting Information System Selection .......1316 87.5 Fuzzy Set Formulation to Capital Budgeting ...........................1319 87.6 A Data Mining Approach to Firm Bankruptcy Predictions ...............1324 87.7 Conclusion .......................................................1329 References .............................................................1329 88 Forecasting S&P 100 Volatility: The Incremental Information Content of Implied Volatilities and High-Frequency Index Returns .................1333 Bevan J. Blair, Ser-Huang Poon, and Stephen J. Taylor 88.1 Introduction ......................................................1333 88.2 Data ............................................................1334 88.3 Methodology for Forecasting Volatility ...............................1336 88.4 Results ..........................................................1338 88.5 Conclusion .......................................................1343 References .............................................................1344 89 Detecting Structural Instability in Financial Time Series ...................1345 Derann Hsu 89.1 Introduction ......................................................1345 89.2 Genesis of the Literature ...........................................1345 89.3 Problems of Multiple Change Points .................................1347 89.4 Here Came the GARCH and Its Brethrens .............................1348 89.5 Examples of Structural Shift Analysis in Financial Time Series ...........1349 89.6 Implications of Structural Instability to Financial Theories and Practice ___1352 89.7 Direction of Future Research and Developments .......................1353 89.8 Epilogue .........................................................1354 References .............................................................1354 90 The Instrument Variable Approach to Correct for Endogeneity in Finance ... 1357 Chia-Jane Wang 90.1 Introduction ......................................................1357 90.2 Endogeneity: The Statistical Issue ...................................1358 90.3 Instrumental Variables Approach to Endogeneity .......................1358 90.4 Validity of Instrumental Variables ....................................1361 90.5 Identification and Inferences with Weak Instruments ....................1364 90.6 Empirical Applications in Corporate Finance ..........................1366 90.7 Conclusion .......................................................1368 References .............................................................1368 91 Bayesian Inference of Financial Models Using MCMC Algorithms ..........1371 Xianghua Liu, Liuling Li, and Hiroki Tsurumi 91.1 Introduction ......................................................1371 91.2 Bayesian Inference and MCMC Algorithms ...........................1371 91.3 CKLS Model with ARMA-GARCH Errors ............................1374 91.4 Copula Model for FTSE100 and S&P500 .............................1376 91.5 Conclusion .......................................................1379 References .............................................................1380 Contents_________________________________________________________________________________________________xxix 92 On Capital Structure and Entry Deterrence ..............................1381 Fathali Firoozi and Donald Lien 92.1 Introduction ......................................................1381 92.2 The Setting .......................................................1382 92.3 Equilibrium ......................................................1384 92.4 Capital Structure and Entry Deterrence ...............................1386 92.5 Conclusion .......................................................1388 References .............................................................1389 93 VAR Models: Estimation, Inferences, and Applications ....................1391 Yangru Wu and Xing Zhou 93.1 Introduction ......................................................1391 93.2 A Brief Discussion of VAR Models ..................................1391 93.3 Applications of VARs in Finance ....................................1393 93.4 Conclusion .......................................................1397 References .............................................................1397 94 Signaling Models and Product Market Games in Finance: Do We Know What We Know? .....................................................1399 Kose John and Anant K. Sundaram 94.1 Introduction ......................................................1399 94.2 Supermodularity: Definitions ........................................1400 94.3 Supermodularity in Signaling Models ................................1400 94.4 Supermodularity in Product Market Games ............................1403 94.5 Empirical Evidence ................................................1406 94.6 Conclusion .......................................................1407 References .............................................................1407 95 Estimation of Short- and Long-Term VaR for Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility Models .....................................................1409 Hwai-Chung Ho and Fang-I Liu 95.1 Introduction ......................................................1409 95.2 Long Memory in Stochastic Volatility ................................1410 95.3 VaR Calculation ..................................................1411 95.4 Conclusions ......................................................1414 References .............................................................1414 96 Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of the Volatilities of Asset Returns ___1417 Tze Leung Lai and Haipeng Xing 96.1 Introduction ......................................................1417 96.2 Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models ...............................1417 96.3 Regime-Switching, Change-Point and Spline-GARCH Models of Volatility ......................................................1421 96.4 Multivariate Volatility Models and Applications to Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization .............................................1424 96.5 Conclusion .......................................................1425 References .............................................................1425 97 Listing Effects and the Private Company Discount in Bank Acquisitions .....1427 Atui Gupta and Lalatendu Misra 97.1 Introduction ......................................................1427 97.2 Why Acquiring Firms May Pay Less for Unlisted Targets ................1428 97.3 Sample Characteristics .............................................1430 97.4 Event Study Analysis ..............................................1431 97.5 Findings Based on Multiples ........................................1433 Contents 97.6 Cross-Sectional Analysis........................................... 1439 97.7 Conclusions ......................................................1442 References .............................................................1443 98 An ODE Approach for the Expected Discounted Penalty at Ruin in Jump Diffusion Model (Reprint) .............................................1445 Yu-Ting Chen, Cheng-Few Lee, and Yuan-Chung Sheu 98.1 Introduction ......................................................1445 98.2 Integra-Differential Equation ........................................1446 98.3 Explicit Formula for Φ - ODE Method ...............................1448 98.4 The Constant Vector Q: Second Method ..............................1453 98.5 Conclusion .......................................................1457 References .............................................................1458 Appendix 98A Proofs ....................................................1458 Appendix 98B Toolbox for Phase-Type Distributions .........................1462 Appendix 98C First Order Derivative of Φ at Zero ............................1462 99 Alternative Models for Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital for Property/Casualty Insurers .........................................1465 Alice C. Lee and J. David Cummins 99.1 Introduction ......................................................1465 99.2 Prior Work .......................................................1466 99.3 Model-Specification and Estimation ..................................1467 99.4 Data Description and Cost of Equity Capital Estimates ..................1470 99.5 Evaluations of Simulations and Estimates .............................1476 99.6 Summary and Conclusion ..........................................1480 References .............................................................1481 100 Implementing a Multifactor Term Structure Model .......................1483 Ren-Raw Chen and Louis O. Scott 100.1 Introduction ......................................................1483 100.2 A Multifactor Term Structure Model .................................1483 100.3 Pricing Options in the Multifactor Model .............................1485 100.4 Calibrating a Multifactor Model .....................................1487 100.5 Conclusion .......................................................1488 References .............................................................1488 101 Taking Positive Interest Rates Seriously .................................1489 Enlin Pan and Liuren Wu 101.1 Introduction ......................................................1489 101.2 Background ......................................................1490 101.3 The Model .......................................................1491 101.4 The Hump-Shaped Forward Rate Curve ...............................1494 101.5 Fitting the US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Swap Rates ...............1495 101.6 Extensions: Jumps in Interest Rates ..................................1498 101.7 Conclusion .......................................................1500 References .............................................................1500 Appendix 101A Factor Representation ......................................1501 Appendix 101B Extended Kalman Filter and Quasilikelihood ..................1502 Contents XXXI 102 Positive Interest Rates and Yields: Additional Serious Considerations ........1503 Jonathan Ingersoll 102.1 Introduction ......................................................1503 102.2 A Non-Zero Bound for Interest Rates .................................1503 102.3 The Cox-IngersoII-Ross and Pan-Wu Term Structure Models ............1504 102.4 Bubble-Free Prices ................................................1506 102.5 Multivariate Affine Term-Structure Models with Zero Bounds on Yields ... 1511 102.6 Non-Affine Term Structures with Yields Bounded at Zero ................1514 102.7 Non-Zero Bounds for Yields ........................................1516 102.8 Conclusion .......................................................1517 References .............................................................1517 Appendix 102A .........................................................1517 1 02A. 1 Derivation of the Probability and State price for rT = 0 for the PW Model ....................................................1517 102A.2 Bond Price When r, — 0 Is Accessible for Only the Risk-Neutral Process ...................................................1519 102A.3 Properties of the Affine Exponentially Smoothed Average Model .. 1520 102A.4 Properties of the Three-Halves Power Interest Rate Process .......1521 103 Functional Forms for Performance Evaluation: Evidence from Closed-End Country Funds ......................................................1523 Cheng-Few Lee, Dilip K. Patro, and Bo Liu 103.1 Introduction and Motivation ........................................1523 103.2 Literature Review .................................................1524 103.3 Model Estimation .................................................1526 103.4 Data and Methodology .............................................1527 103.5 Empirical Results .................................................1534 103.6 Conclusion .......................................................1545 References .............................................................1553 104 A Semimartingale BSDE Related to the Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure ..................................................1555 Michael Mania, Marina Santacroce, and Revaz Tevzadze 104.1 Introduction ......................................................1555 104.2 Some Basic Definitions, Conditions, and Auxiliary Facts ................1556 104.3 Backward Semimartingale Equation for the Value Process ...............1558 104.4 Conclusions ......................................................1564 References .............................................................1565 105 The Density Process of the Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure in a Stochastic Volatility Model with Jumps (Reprint) .....................1567 Fred Espen Benth and Thilo Meyer-Brandis 105.1 Introduction ......................................................1567 105.2 The Market ......................................................1568 105.3 The Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure ............................1569 105.4 The Density Process ...............................................1571 105.5 The Entropy Price of Derivatives and Integra-Partial Differential Equations ........................................................1573 105.6 Conclusions ......................................................1574 References .............................................................1575 xxxii Contents 106 Arbitrage Detection from Stock Data: An Empirical Study................. 1577 Cheng-Der Fuh and Szu-Yu Pai 106.1 Introduction...................................................... 1577 106.2 Arbitrage Detection: Volatility Change ...............................1579 106.3 Arbitrage Detection: Mean Change ...................................1583 106.4 Empirical Studies .................................................1586 106.5 Conclusions and Further Researches .................................1590 References .............................................................1591 107 Detecting Corporate Failure ...........................................1593 Yanzhi Wang, Lin Lin, Hsien-Chang Kuo, and Jenifer Piesse 107.1 Introduction ......................................................1593 107.2 The Possible Causes of Bankruptcy ..................................1594 107.3 The Methods of Bankruptcy ........................................1594 107.4 Prediction Model for Corporate Failure ...............................1596 107.5 The Selection of Optimal Cutoff Point ................................1603 107.6 Recent Development ...............................................1604 107.7 Conclusion .......................................................1604 References .............................................................1604 108 Genetic Programming for Option Pricing ................................1607 N.K. Chidambaran 108.1 Introduction ......................................................1607 108.2 Genetic Program Elements ..........................................1608 108.3 Black-Scholes Example ............................................1611 108.4 Extensions .......................................................1613 108.5 Conclusion .......................................................1613 References .............................................................1614 109 A Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) Family of Stock Price Distributions in Option Pricing, Review, and Integration ..............1615 Ren-Raw Chen and Cheng-Few Lee 109.1 Introduction ......................................................1615 109.2 The CEV Diffusion and Its Transition Density .........................1616 109.3 The CEV Option Pricing Models ....................................1619 109.4 Computing the Non-Central Chi-Square Probabilities ...................1622 109.5 Conclusion .......................................................1623 Appendix 109A .........................................................1623 References .............................................................1625 References ..............................................................1627 Author Index ............................................................1685 Subject Index ............................................................1709
adam_txt	Contents Preface . v Part I Overview of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management Research 1 Theoretical Framework of Finance . 3 1.1 Introduction . 3 1.2 Discounted Cash-Flow Valuation Theory . 3 1.3 M and M Valuation Theory . 6 1.4 Markowitz Portfolio Theory . 10 1.5 Capital Asset Pricing Model . 10 1.6 Arbitrage Pricing Theory . 12 1.7 Option Valuation . 14 1.8 Futures Valuation and Hedging . 15 1.9 Conclusion . 22 References . 22 2 Investment, Dividend, Financing, and Production Policies: Theory and Implications . 23 2.1 Introduction . 23 2.2 Investment and Dividend Interactions: The Internal Versus External Financing Decision . 23 2.3 Interactions Between Dividend and Financing Policies . 25 2.4 Interactions Between Financing and Investment Decisions . 28 2.5 Implications of Financing and Investment Interactions for Capita! Budgeting . 30 2.6 Implications of Different Policies on the Beta Coefficient . 34 2.7 Conclusion . 36 References . 36 Appendix 2A Stochastic Dominance and its Applications to Capital-Structure Analysis with Default Risk . 38 2A. 1 Introduction . 38 2A.2 Concepts and Theorems of Stochastic Dominance . 38 2A.3 Stochastic-Dominance Approach to Investigating the Capital-Structure Problem with Default Risk . 39 2A.4 Summary . 40 Contents 3 Research Methods in Quantitative Finance and Risk Management 41 3.1 Introduction . 41 3.2 Statistics . 41 3.3 Econometrics . 43 3.4 Mathematics . 46 3.5 Other Disciplines . 48 3.6 Conclusion . 49 References . 50 Part II Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis 4 Foundation of Portfolio Theory .53 Cheng-Few Lee, Alice С Lee, and John Lee 4.1 Introduction . 53 4.2 Risk Classification and Measurement . 53 4.3 Portfolio Analysis and Application . 57 4.4 The Efficient Portfolio and Risk Diversification . 60 4.5 Determination of Commercial Lending Rate . 64 4.6 The Market Rate of Return and Market Risk Premium . 66 4.7 Conclusion . 68 References . 68 5 Risk-Aversion, Capital Asset Allocation, and Markowitz Portfolio-Selection Model . 69 Cheng-Few Lee, Joseph E. Finnerty, and Hong-Yi Chen 5.1 Introduction . 69 5.2 Measurement of Return and Risk . 69 5.3 Utility Theory, Utility Functions, and Indifference Curves . 71 5.4 Efficient Portfolios . 77 5.5 Conclusion . 91 References . 91 6 Capital Asset Pricing Model and Beta Forecasting . 93 Cheng-Few Lee, Joseph E. Finnerty, and Donald H. Wort 6.1 Introduction . 93 6.2 A Graphical Approach to the Derivation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model . 93 6.3 Mathematical Approach to the Derivation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model . 96 6.4 The Market Model and Risk Decomposition . 97 6.5 Growth Rates, Accounting Betas, and Variance in EBIT . 100 6.6 Some Applications and Implications of the Capital Asset Pricing Model . 104 6.7 Conclusion . 105 References . 105 Appendix 6 A Empirical Evidence for the Risk-Return Relationship . 106 Appendix 6B Anomalies in the Semi-strong Efficient-Market Hypothesis . 109 7 Index Models for Portfolio Selection . Ill Cheng-Few Lee, Joseph E. Finnerty, and Donald H. Wort 7.1 Introduction . Ill 7.2 The Single-Index Model . Ill 7.3 Multiple Indexes and the Multiple-Index Model . 118 7.4 Conclusion . 121 References . 122 Contents Appendix 7 A A Linear-Programming Approach to Portfolio-Analysis Models . 122 Appendix 7B Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance for a Multi-index Model . 123 8 Performance-Measure Approaches for Selecting Optimum Portfolios . 125 Cheng-Few Lee, Hong-Yi Chen, and Jessica Shin-Ying Mai 8.1 Introduction . 125 8.2 Sharpe Performance-Measure Approach with Short Sales Allowed . 125 8.3 Treynor-Measure Approach with Short Sales Allowed . 128 8.4 Treynor-Measure Approach with Short Sales Not Allowed . 130 8.5 Impact of Short Sales on Optimal-Weight Determination . 132 8.6 Economic Rationale of the Treynor Performance-Measure Method . 132 8.7 Conclusion . 133 References . 133 Appendix 8A Derivation of Equation (8.6). 133 Appendix 8B Derivation of Equation (8.10). 134 Appendix 8C Derivation of Equation (8.15). 135 9 The Creation and Control of Speculative Bubbles in a Laboratory Setting . 137 James S. Ang, Dean Diavatopoulos, and Thomas V. Schwarz 9.1 Introduction . 137 9.2 Bubbles in the Asset Markets . 139 9.3 Experimental Design . 140 9.4 Results and Analysis . 145 9.5 Conclusions . 161 References . 163 10 Portfolio Optimization Models and Mean-Variance Spanning Tests . 165 Wei-Peng Chen, Huimin Chung, Keng-Yu Ho, and Tsui-Ling Hsu 10.1 Introduction of Markowitz Portfolio-Selection Model . 165 10.2 Measurement of Return and Risk . 166 10.3 Efficient Portfolio . 166 10.4 Mean-Variance Spanning Test . 172 10.5 Alternative Computer Program to Calculate Efficient Frontier . 175 10.6 Conclusion . 182 References . 184 11 Combining Fundamental Measures for Stock Selection . 185 Kenton K. Yee 11.1 Introduction . 185 11.2 Bayesian Triangulation. 187 11.3 Triangulation in Forensic Valuation . 189 11.4 Bayesian Triangulation in Asset Pricing Settings . 190 11.5 The Data Snooping Trap . 194 11.6 Using Guidance from Theory to Mitigate Data Snooping . 195 11.7 Avoiding Data-Snooping Pitfalls in Financial Statement Analysis . 197 11.8 Conclusion . 199 References . 200 Appendix 1 1A Proof of Theorem 11.1. 201 1 1A.1 Generalization of Theorem 11.1. 201 x¡¡ Contents 12 On Estimation Risk and Power Utility Portfolio Selection . 203 Robert R. Grauer and Frederick C. Shen 12.1 Introduction . 203 12.2 Literature Review . 203 12.3 The Multiperiod Investment Model . 205 12.4 The Data . 206 12.5 Alternative Ways of Estimating the Joint Return Distribution . 206 12.6 Alternate Ways of Evaluating Investment Performance . 208 12.7 The Results . 210 12.8 Conclusion . 216 12.9 Addendum . 217 References . 218 13 International Portfolio Management: Theory and Method . 221 Wan-Jiun Paul Chiou and Cheng-Few Lee 13.1 Introduction . 221 13.2 Overview of International Portfolio Management . 222 13.3 Literature Review . 226 13.4 Forming the Optimal Global Portfolio . 226 13.5 The Benefits of International Diversification Around the World . 227 13.6 The Optimal Portfolio Components . 229 13.7 Conclusion . 232 References . 233 14 The Le Chatelier Principle in the Markowitz Quadratic Programming Investment Model: A Case of World Equity Fund Market . 235 Chin W. Yang, Ken Hung, and Jing Cui 14.1 Introduction . 235 14.2 Data and Methodology . 236 14.3 The Le Chatelier Principle in the Markowitz Investment Model . 236 14.4 An Application of the Le Chatelier Principle in the World Equity Market . 237 14.5 Conclusion . 245 References . 245 15 Risk-Averse Portfolio Optimization via Stochastic Dominance Constraints . 247 Darinka Dentcheva and Andrzej Ruszczyński 15.1 Introduction . 247 15.2 The Portfolio Problem . 248 15.3 Stochastic Dominance . 249 15.4 The Dominance-Constrained Portfolio Problem . 252 15.5 Optimality and Duality . 254 15.6 Numerical Illustration . 256 15.7 Conclusions . 257 References . 257 16 Portfolio Analysis . 259 Jack Clark Francis 16.1 Introduction . 259 16.2 Inputs for Portfolio Analysis . 259 16.3 The Security Analyst's Job . 259 16.4 Four Assumptions Underlying Portfolio Analysis . 260 16.5 Different Approaches to Diversification . 260 16.6 A Portfolio's Expected Return Formula . 261 16.7 The Quadratic Risk Formula for a Portfolio . 261 16.8 The Covariance Between Returns from Two Assets . 262 Contents 16.9 Portfolio Analysis of a Two-Asset Portfolio . 262 16.10 Mathematical Portfolio Analysis . 265 16.11 Calculus Minimization of Risk: A Three-Security Portfolio . 265 16.12 Conclusion . 266 References . 266 17 Portfolio Theory, CAPM and Performance Measures . 267 Luis Ferruz, Fernando Gómez-Bezares, and María Vargas 17.1 Portfolio Theory and CAPM: Foundations and Current Application . 267 17.2 Performance Measures Related to Portfolio Theory and the CAPM: Classic Indices, Derivative Indices, and New Approaches . 274 17.3 Empirical Analysis: Performance Rankings and Performance Persistence . 277 17.4 Summary and Conclusions . 280 References . 280 18 Intertemporal Equilibrium Models, Portfolio Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model . 283 Stephen J. Brown 18.1 Introduction . 283 18.2 Intertemporal Equilibrium Models . 283 18.3 Relationship to Observed Security Returns . 284 18.4 Intertemporal Equilibrium and the Capital Asset Pricing Model . 285 18.5 Hansen Jagannathan Bounds . 285 18.6 Are Stochastic Discount Factors Positive? . 286 18.7 Conclusion . 286 References . 287 19 Persistence, Predictability, and Portfolio Planning . 289 Michael J. Brennan and Yihong Xia 19.1 Introduction . 289 19.2 Detecting and Exploiting Predictability . 290 19.3 Stock Price Variation and Variation in the Expected Returns . 296 19.4 Economic Significance of Predictability . 298 19.5 Forecasts of Equity Returns . 303 19.6 Conclusion . 314 References . 314 Appendix 19A The Optimal Strategy . 315 Appendix 19B The Unconditional Strategy . 316 Appendix 19C The Myopic Strategy . 317 Appendix 19D The Optimal Buy-and-HoId Strategy . 317 20 Portfolio Insurance Strategies: Review of Theory and Empirical Studies . 319 Lan-chih Ho, John Cadle, and Michael Theobald 20.1 Introduction . 319 20.2 Theory of Alternative Portfolio Insurance Strategies . 319 20.3 Empirical Comparison of Alternative Portfolio Insurance Strategies . 324 20.4 Recent Market Developments . 329 20.5 Implications for Financial Market Stability . 331 20.6 Conclusion . 332 References . 332 Contents 21 Security Market Microstructure: The Analysis of a Non-Frictionless Market . 333 Reto Francioni, Sonali Hazarika, Martin Reck, and Robert A. Schwartz 21.1 Introduction . 333 21.2 Microstrocture's Challenge . 334 21.3 The Perfectly Liquid Environment of CAPM . 335 21.4 What Microstructure Analysis Has to Offer: Personal Reflections . 339 21.5 From Theory to Application . 344 21.6 Deutsche Börse: The Emergence of a Modern, Electronic Market . 345 21.7 Conclusion: The Roadmap and the Road . 347 References . 347 Appendix 21 A Risk Aversion and Risk Premium Measures . 349 21A.1 Risk Aversion . 349 21A.2 Risk Premiums . 349 Appendix 21B Designing Xetra . 350 21B.1 Continuous Trading . 350 21B.2 Call Auction Trading . 351 21B.3 Electronic Trading for Less Liquid Stocks . 351 21 B.4 Xetra's Implementation and the Migration of Liquidity to Xetra Since 1997. 352 Part III Options and Option Pricing Theory 22 Options Strategies and Their Applications .355 Cheng Few Lee, John Lee, and Wei-Kang Shih 22.1 Introduction . 355 22.2 The Option Market and Related Definitions . 355 22.3 Put-Call Parity . 360 22.4 Risk-Return Characteristics of Options . 363 22.5 Examples of Alternative Option Strategies . 372 22.6 Conclusion . 375 References . 375 23 Option Pricing Theory and Firm Valuation . 377 Cheng Few Lee, Joseph E. Finnerty, and Wei-Kang Shih 23.1 Introduction . 377 23.2 Basic Concepts of Options . 377 23.3 Factors Affecting Option Value . 380 23.4 Determining the Value of Options . 384 23.5 Option Pricing Theory and Capital Structure . 387 23.6 Warrants . 390 23.7 Conclusion . 391 References . 392 24 Applications of the Binomial Distribution to Evaluate Call Options . 393 Alice С Lee, John Lee, and Jessica Shin-Ying Mai 24.1 Introduction . 393 24.2 What Is an Option? . 393 24.3 The Simple Binomial Option Pricing Model . 393 24.4 The Generalized Binomial Option Pricing Model . 395 24.5 Conclusion . 397 References . 397 Contents 25 Multinomial Option Pricing Model. 399 Cheng Few Lee and Jack С. Lee 25.1 Introduction . 399 25.2 Multinomial Option Pricing Model . 399 25.3 A Lattice Framework for Option Pricing . 402 25.4 Conclusion . 406 References . 406 Appendix 25 A . 406 26 Two Alternative Binomial Option Pricing Model Approaches to Derive Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model . 409 Cheng-Few Lee and Carl Shu-Ming Lin 26.1 Introduction . 409 26.2 The Two-State Option Pricing Model of Rendleman and Bartter . 409 26.3 The Binomial Option Pricing Model of Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein . 415 26.4 Comparison of the Two Approaches . 417 26.5 Conclusion . 418 References . 418 Appendix 26A The Binomial Theorem . 419 27 Normal, Lognormal Distribution and Option Pricing Model . 421 Cheng Few Lee, Jack C. Lee, and Alice C. Lee 27.1 Introduction . 421 27.2 The Normal Distribution . 421 27.3 The Lognormal Distribution . 422 27.4 The Lognormal Distribution and Its Relationship to the Normal Distribution . 422 27.5 Multivariate Normal and Lognormal Distributions . 423 27.6 The Normal Distribution as an Application to the Binomial and Poisson Distributions . 425 27.7 Applications of the Lognormal Distribution in Option Pricing . 426 27.8 Conclusion . 428 References . 428 28 Bivariate Option Pricing Models . 429 Cheng Few Lee, Alice C. Lee, and John Lee 28.1 Introduction . 429 28.2 The Bivariate Normal Density Function . 429 28.3 American Call Option and the Bivariate Normal CDF . 430 28.4 Valuating American Options . 431 28.5 Non-Dividend-Paying Stocks . 433 28.6 Dividend-Paying Stocks . 433 28.7 Conclusion . 438 References . 438 29 Displaced Log Normal and Lognormal American Option Pricing: A Comparison . 439 Ren-Raw Chen and Cheng-Few Lee 29.1 Introduction . 439 29.2 The American Option Pricing Model Under the Lognormal Process . 439 29.3 The Geske-Roll-Whaley Model . 440 29.4 Conclusion . 442 References . 442 Appendix 29A . 443 xvi Contents 30 Itô's Calculus and the Derivation of the Black-Scholes Option-Pricing Model . 447 George Chalamandaris and A.G. Malliaris 30.1 Introduction . 447 30.2 The ITO Process and Financial Modeling . 447 30.3 ITÔ'S Lemma . 451 30.4 Stochastic Differential-Equation Approach to Stock-price Behavior . 452 30.5 The Pricing of an Option . 454 30.6 A Reexamination of Option Pricing . 455 30.7 Extending the Risk-Neutral Argument: The Martingale Approach . 458 30.8 Remarks on Option Pricing . 463 30.9 Conclusion . 465 References . 465 Appendix 30A An Alternative Method To Derive the Black-Scholes Option-Pricing Model . 466 30A. 1 Assumptions and the Present Value of the Expected Terminal Option Price . 466 30A.2 Present Value of the Partial Expectation of the Terminal Stock Price . 467 30A.3 Present Value of the Exercise Price under Uncertainty . 469 31 Constant Elasticity of Variance Option Pricing Model: Integration and Detailed Derivation . 471 Y.L. Hsu, T.I. Lin, and CF. Lee 31.1 Introduction . 471 31.2 The CEV Diffusion and Its Transition Probability Density Function . 471 31.3 Review of Noncentral Chi-Square Distribution . 473 31.4 The Noncentral Chi-square Approach to Option Pricing Model . 474 31.5 Conclusion . 478 References . 478 Appendix 31 A Proof of Feller's Lemma . 478 32 Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing Models . 481 Cheng Few Lee and Jack C. Lee 32.1 Introduction . 481 32.2 Nonclosed-Form Type of Option Pricing Model . 481 32.3 Review of Characteristic Function . 485 32.4 Closed-Form Type of Option Pricing Model . 485 32.5 Conclusion . 489 References . 489 Appendix 32A The Market Price of the Risk . 489 33 Derivations and Applications of Greek Letters: Review and Integration . 491 Hong-Yi Chen, Cheng-Few Lee, and Weikang Shih 33.1 Introduction . 491 33.2 Delta (Δ) . 491 33.3 Theta (Θ) . 494 33.4 Gamma (Г) . 496 33.5 Vega (v) . 498 33.6 Rho (p) . 500 33.7 Derivation of Sensitivity for Stock Options Respective with Exercise Price . 501 33.8 Relationship Between Delta, Theta, and Gamma . 502 33.9 Conclusion . 503 References . 503 Contents 34 A Further Analysis of the Convergence Rates and Patterns of the Binomial Models . 505 San-Lin Chung and Pai -Та Shih 34.1 Brief Review of the Binomial Models . 505 34.2 The Importance of Node Positioning for Monotonie Convergence . 506 34.3 The Flexibility of GCRR Model for Node Positioning . 507 34.4 Numerical Results of Various GCRR Models . 507 34.5 Conclusion . 510 References . 513 Appendix 34A Extrapolation Formulas for Various GCRR Models . 513 35 Estimating Implied Probabilities from Option Prices and the Underlying . 515 Bruce Mizrach 35.1 Introduction . 515 35.2 Black Scholes Baseline . 516 35.3 Empirical Departures from Black Scholes . 517 35.4 Beyond Black Scholes . 518 35.5 Histogram Estimators . 518 35.6 Tree Methods . 520 35.7 Local Volatility Functions . 522 35.8 PDF Approaches . 522 35.9 Inferences from the Mixture Model . 524 35.10 Jump Processes . 526 35.11 Conclusion . 528 References . 528 36 Are Tails Fat Enough to Explain Smile . 531 Ren-Raw Chen, Oded Palmon, and John Wald 36.1 Introduction . 531 36.2 Literature Review . 532 36.3 The Models . 533 36.4 Data and Empirical Results . 537 36.5 Conclusion . 541 References . 541 Appendix 36A . 542 36A. 1 The Derivation of the Lognormal Model Under No Rebalancing . 542 36A.2 Continuous Rebalancing . 543 36A.3 Smoothing Techniques . 543 36A.4 Results of Sub-Sample Testing . 544 37 Option Pricing and Hedging Performance Under Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates . 547 Gurdip Bakshi, Charles Cao, and Zhiwu Chen 37.1 Introduction . 547 37.2 The Option Pricing Model . 549 37.3 Data Description . 556 37.4 Empirical Tests . 557 37.5 Conclusions . 571 References . 571 Appendix 37A . 572 xv¡¡¡ Contents 38 Application of the Characteristic Function in Financial Research . 575 H.W. Chuang, Y.L. Hsu, and CF. Lee 38.1 Introduction . 575 38.2 The Characteristic Functions . 575 38.3 CEV Option Pricing Model . 576 38.4 Options with Stochastic Volatility . 577 38.5 Conclusion . 581 References . 581 39 Asian Options . 583 Itzhak Venezia 39.1 Introduction . 583 39.2 Valuation . 584 39.3 Conclusion . 586 References . 586 40 Numerical Valuation of Asian Options with Higher Moments in the Underlying Distribution . 587 Kehluh Wang and Ming-Feng Hsu 40.1 Introduction . 587 40.2 Definitions and the Basic Binomial Model . 588 40.3 Edgeworth Binomial Model for Asian Option Valuation . 589 40.4 Upper Bound and Lower Bound for European Asian Options . 591 40.5 Upper Bound and Lower Bound for American Asian Options . 593 40.6 Numerical Examples . 594 40.7 Conclusion . 602 References . 602 41 The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options . 605 Mark Rubinstein 41.1 Introduction . 605 41.2 Uncertain Income Streams: General Case . 606 41.3 Uncertain Income Streams: Special Case . 608 41.4 Options . 611 41.5 Conclusion . 613 References . 613 Appendix 41 A The Divariate Normal Density Function . 614 42 Binomial OPM, Black-Scholes OPM and Their Relationship: Decision Tree and Microsoft Excel Approach . 617 John Lee 42.1 Introduction . 617 42.2 Call and Put Options . 617 42.3 One Period Option Pricing Model . 618 42.4 Two-Period Option Pricing Model . 621 42.5 Using Microsoft Excel to Create the Binomial Option Trees . 622 42.6 Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model . 624 42.7 Relationship Between the Binomial OPM and the Black-Scholes OPM _ 625 42.8 Decision Tree Black-Scholes Calculation . 626 42.9 Conclusion . 626 References . 627 Appendix 42A Excel VBA Code: Binomial Option Pricing Model . 627 Contents Part IV Risk Management 43 Combinatorial Methods for Constructing Credit Risk Ratings .639 Alexander Kogan and Miguel A. Lejeune 43.1 Introduction . 639 43.2 Logical Analysis of Data: An Overview . 641 43.3 Absolute Creditworthiness: Credit Risk Ratings of Financial Institutions . 643 43.4 Relative Creditworthiness: Country Risk Ratings . 648 43.5 Conclusions . 659 References . 660 Appendix 43A . 662 44 The Structural Approach to Modeling Credit Risk . 665 Jing-zhi Huang 44.1 Introduction . 665 44.2 Structural Credit Risk Models . 665 44.3 Empirical Evidence . 668 44.4 Conclusion . 671 References . 671 45 An Empirical Investigation of the Rationales for Integrated Risk-Management Behavior . 675 Michael S. Pagano 45.1 Introduction . 675 45.2 Theories of Risk-Management, Previous Research, and Testable Hypotheses . 677 45.3 Data, Sample Selection, and Empirical Methodology . 685 45.4 Empirical Results . 689 45.5 Conclusion . 694 References . 694 46 Copula, Correlated Defaults, and Credit VaR . 697 Jow-Ran Chang and An-Chi Chen 46.1 Introduction . 697 46.2 Methodology . 698 46.3 Experimental Results . 703 46.4 Conclusion . 710 References . 711 47 Unspanned Stochastic Volatilities and Interest Rate Derivatives Pricing . 713 Feng Zhao 47.1 Introduction . 713 47.2 Term Structure Models with Spanned Stochastic Volatility . 716 47.3 LIBOR Market Models with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps: Theory and Estimation . 723 47.4 Nonparametric Estimation of the Forward Density . 734 47.5 Conclusion . 746 References . 746 Appendix 47A The Derivation for QTSMs . 748 Appendix 47B The Implementation of the Kalman Filter . 750 Appendix 47C Derivation of the Characteristic Function . 751 xx Contents 48 Catastrophic Losses and Alternative Risk Transfer Instruments . 753 Jin-Ping Lee and Min-Teh Yu 48.1 Introduction . 753 48.2 Catastrophe Bonds . 753 48.3 Catastrophe Equity Puts . 757 48.4 Catastrophe Derivatives . 760 48.5 Reinsurance with CAT-Linked Securities . 763 48.6 Conclusion . 764 References . 766 49 A Real Option Approach to the Comprehensive Analysis of Bank Consolidation Values . 767 Chuang-Chang Chang, Pei-Fang Hsieh, and Hung-Neng Lai 49.1 Introduction . 767 49.2 The Model . 768 49.3 Case Study . 771 49.4 Results . 775 49.5 Conclusions . 777 References . 777 Appendix 49A The Correlations Between the Standard Wiener Process Generated from a Bank's Net Interest Income . 778 Appendix 49B The Risk-Adjusted Processes . 778 Appendix 49C The Discrete Version of the Risk-Adjusted Process . 778 50 Dynamic Econometric Loss Model: A Default Study of US Subprime Markets 779 C.H. Ted Hong 50.1 Introduction . 779 50.2 Model Framework . 780 50.3 Default Modeling . 782 50.4 Prepayment Modeling . 792 50.5 Delinquency Study . 797 50.6 Conclusion . 800 References . 802 Appendix 50A Default and Prepayment Definition . 802 Appendix 50B General Model Framework . 803 Appendix 50C Default Specification . 803 Appendix 50D Prepayment Specification . 805 51 The Effect of Default Risk on Equity Liquidity: Evidence Based on the Panel Threshold Model . 807 Huimin Chung, Wei-Peng Chen, and Yu-Dan Chen 51.1 Introduction . 807 51.2 Data and Methodology . 808 51.3 Empirical Results . 812 51.4 Conclusion . 815 References . 815 Appendix 51 A . 816 52 Put Option Approach to Determine Bank Risk Premium . 819 Dar Yeh Hwang, Fu-Shuen Shie, and Wei-Hsiung Wu 52.1 Introduction . 819 52.2 Evaluating Insurer's Liability by Option Pricing Model: Merton( 1977)_ 820 52.3 Extensions of Merton( 1977). 820 52.4 Applications for Merton (1977). 823 Contents 52.5 Conclusion . 825 References . 826 Appendix 52A . 826 Appendix 52B . 827 53 Keiretsu Style Main Bank Relationships, R&D Investment, Leverage, and Firm Value: Quantile Regression Approach . 829 Hai-Chin Yu, Chih-Sean Chen, and Der-Tzon Hsieh 53.1 Introduction . 829 53.2 Literature Review . 831 53.3 Data and Sample . 831 53.4 Empirical Results and Analysis . 836 53.5 Conclusions and Discussion . 840 References . 841 54 On the Feasibility of Laddering . 843 Joshua Ronen and Bharat Sarath 54.1 Introduction . 843 54.2 The Model . 845 54.3 Results . 849 54.4 Conclusion . 851 References . 851 55 Stock Returns, Extreme Values, and Conditional Skewed Distribution . 853 Thomas С Chiang and Jiandong Li 55.1 Introduction . 853 55.2 The AGARCH Model Based on the EGB2 Distribution . 854 55.3 Data . 855 55.4 Empirical Evidence . 856 55.5 Distributional Fit Test . 859 55.6 The Implication of the EGB2 Distribution . 859 55.7 Conclusion . 861 References . 862 56 Capital Structure in Asia and CEO Entrenchment . 863 Kin Wai Lee and Gillian Hian Heng Yeo 56.1 Introduction . 863 56.2 Prior Research and Hypothesis . 864 56.3 Data and Method . 865 56.4 Results . 867 56.5 Conclusion . 871 References . 871 Appendix 56A Variables Definition . 872 57 A Generalized Model for Optimum Futures Hedge Ratio . 873 Cheng-Few Lee, Jang-Yi Lee, Kehluh Wang, and Yuan-Chung Sheu 57.1 Introduction . 873 57.2 GIG and GH Distributions . 876 57.3 Futures Hedge Ratios . 877 57.4 Estimation and Simulation . 879 57.5 Conclusion . 880 References . 880 Appendix 57 A . 881 xx¡¡ Contents 58 The Sensitivity of Corporate Bond Volatility to Macroeconomic Announcements . 883 Nikolay Kosturov and Duane Stock 58.1 Introduction . 883 58.2 Theory and Hypotheses . 884 58.3 Data and Return Computations . 886 58.4 Descriptive Statistics of Daily Excess Returns . 886 58.5 OLS Regressions of Volatility and Excess Returns . 897 58.6 Conditional Variance Models . 899 58.7 Alternative GARCH Models . 903 58.8 Conclusion . 910 References . 912 Appendix 58A . 913 59 Raw Material Convenience Yields and Business Cycle . 915 Chang-Wen Duan and William T. Lin 59.1 Introduction . 915 59.2 Characteristics of Study Commodities . 917 59.3 The Model . 919 59.4 Data . 921 59.5 Empirical Results . 922 59.6 Conclusion . 930 References . 931 60 Alternative Methods to Determine Optimal Capital Structure: Theory and Application . 933 Sheng-Syan Chen, Cheng-Few Lee, and Han-Hsing Lee 60.1 Introduction . 933 60.2 The Traditional Theory of Optimal Capital Structure . 934 60.3 Optimal Capital Structure in the Contingent Claims Framework . 936 60.4 Recent Development of Capital Structure Models . 941 60.5 Application and Empirical Evidence of Capital Structure Models . 948 60.6 Conclusion . 950 References . 950 61 Actuarial Mathematics and Its Applications in Quantitative Finance . 953 Cho-Jieh Chen 61.1 Introduction . 953 61.2 Actuarial Discount and Accumulation Functions . 953 61.3 Actuarial Mathematics of Insurance . 955 61.4 Actuarial Mathematics of Annuity . 958 61.5 Actuarial Premiums and Actuarial Reserves . 959 61.6 Applications in Quantitative Finance . 961 61.7 Conclusion . 963 References . 963 62 The Prediction of Default with Outliers: Robust Logistic Regression . 965 Chung-Hua Shen, Yi-Kai Chen, and Bor-Yi Huang 62.1 Introduction . 965 62.2 Literature Review of Outliers in Conventional and in Logit Regression . 966 62.3 Five Validation Tests . 967 62.4 Source of Data and Empirical Model . 969 62.5 Empirical Results . 969 62.6 Conclusion . 973 References . 976 Contents 63 Term Structure of Default-Free and Defaultable Securities: Theory and Empirical Evidence . 979 Hai Lin and Chunchi Wu 63.1 Introduction . 979 63.2 Definitions and Notations . 980 63.3 Bond Pricing in Dynamic Term Structure Model Framework . 980 63.4 Dynamic Term Structure Models . 981 63.5 Models of Defaultable Bonds . 988 63.6 Interest Rate and Credit Default Swaps . 996 63.7 Concluding Remarks .1001 References .1001 64 Liquidity Risk and Arbitrage Pricing Theory .1007 Umut Çetin, Robert A. Jarrow, and Philip Protter 64.1 Introduction .1007 64.2 The Model .1009 64.3 The Extended First Fundamental Theorem .1011 64.4 The Extended Second Fundamental Theorem .1012 64.5 Example (Extended Black-Scholes Economy) .1015 64.6 Discontinuous Supply Curve Evolutions .1016 64.7 Conclusion .1017 References .1017 Appendix 64A .1018 65 An Integrated Model of Debt Issuance, Refunding, and Maturity .1025 Manak C. Gupta and Alice С Lee 65.1 Introduction .1025 65.2 The Model .1026 65.3 Operationalizing the Model .1029 65.4 Numerical Illustration .1032 65.5 Conclusions .1036 References .1037 Part V Theory, Methodology, and Applications 66 Business Models: Applications to Capital Budgeting, Equity Value, and Return Attribution .1041 Thomas S. Y. Ho and Sang Bin Lee 66.1 Introduction .1041 66.2 The Model Assumptions .1042 66.3 Simulation Results of the Capital Budgeting Decisions .1045 66.4 Relative Valuation of Equity .1048 66.5 Equity Return Attribution .1050 66.6 Conclusion .1051 References .1051 Appendix 66 A Derivation of the Risk Neutral Probability .1052 Appendix 66B The Model for the Fixed Operating Cost at Time Τ .1052 Appendix 66C The Valuation Model Using the Recombining Lattice .1053 Appendix 66D Input Data of the Model .1054 xxiv Contents 67 Dividends Versus Reinvestments in Continuous Time: A More General Model .1055 Ren-Raw Chen, Ben Logan, Oded Palmon, and Larry Shepp 67.1 Introduction .1055 67.2 The Model .1055 67.3 The Solution .1057 67.4 Expected Bankruptcy Time .1058 67.5 Further Remarks .1059 67.6 Conclusion .1059 References .1060 68 Segmenting Financial Services Market: An Empirical Study of Statistical and Non-parametric Methods .1061 Kenneth Lawrence, Dinesh Pai, Ronald Klimberg, Stephen Kudbya, and Sheila Lawrence 68.1 Introduction .1061 68.2 Methodology .1062 68.3 Evaluating the Classification Function .1064 68.4 Experimental Design .1065 68.5 Results .1065 68.6 Conclusions .1066 References .1066 69 Spurious Regression and Data Mining in Conditional Asset Pricing Models . 1067 Wayne Ferson, Sergei Sarkissian, and Timothy Simin 69.1 Introduction .1067 69.2 Spurious Regression and Data Mining in Predictive Regressions .1068 69.3 Spurious Regression, Data Mining, and Conditional Asset Pricing .1069 69.4 The Data .1069 69.5 The Models .1071 69.6 Results for Predictive Regressions .1073 69.7 Results for Conditional Asset Pricing Models .1080 69.8 Solutions to the Problems of Spurious Regression and Data Mining .1086 69.9 Robustness of the Asset Pricing Results .1087 69.10 Conclusions .1088 References .1089 70 Issues Related to the Errors-in-Variables Problems in Asset Pricing Tests .1091 Dongcheol Kim 70.1 Introduction .1091 70.2 The Errors-in-Variables Problem .1092 70.3 A Correction for the Errors-in-Variables Bias .1094 70.4 Results .1099 70.5 Conclusions .1108 References .1108 71 McMC Estimation of Multiscale Stochastic Volatility Models .1109 German Molina, Chuan-Hsiang Han, and Jean-Pierre Fouque 71.1 Introduction .1109 71.2 Multiscale Modeling and McMC Estimation .1110 71.3 Simulation Study .1113 71.4 Empirical Application: FX Data .1113 7 і .5 Implication on Derivatives Pricing and Hedging .1118 Contents xxv 71.6 Conclusions. 1118 References .1119 Appendix 7 IA Proof of Independent Factor Equivalence .1119 Appendix71B Full Conditionals .1120 72 Regime Shifts and the Term Structure of Interest Rates .1121 Chien-Chung Nieh, Shu Wu, and Yong Zeng 72.1 Introduction .1121 72.2 Regime-Switching and Short-Term Interest Rate .1122 72.3 Regime-Switching Term Structure Models in Discreet Time .1126 72.4 Regime-Switching Term Structure Models in Continuous Time .1128 72.5 Conclusion .1133 References .1133 73 ARM Processes and Their Modeling and Forecasting Methodology .1135 Benjamin Melamed 73.1 Introduction .1135 73.2 Overview of ARM Processes .1136 73.3 The ARM Modeling Methodology .1139 73.4 The ARM Forecasting Methodology .1140 73.5 Example: ARM Modeling of an S&P 500 Time Series .1145 73.6 Summary .1148 References .1149 74 Alternative Econometric Methods for Information-based Equity-selling Mechanisms .1151 Lee Cheng-Few and Yi Lin Wu 74.1 Introduction .1151 74.2 The Information Contents of Equity-Selling Mechanisms .1152 74.3 Alternative Econometric Methods for Information-Based Equity-Selling Mechanisms .1153 74.4 Conclusions .1161 References .1162 75 Implementation Problems and Solutions in Stochastic Volatility Models of the Heston Type .1165 Jia-Hau Guo and Mao-Wei Hung 75.1 Introduction .1165 75.2 The Transform-Based Solution for Heston's Stochastic Volatility Model . 1165 75.3 Solutions to the Discontinuity Problem of Heston's Formula .1168 75.4 Conclusion .1170 References .1171 76 Revisiting Volume vs. GARCH Effects Using Univariate and Bivariate GARCH Models: Evidence from U.S. Stock Markets .1173 Zhuo Qiao and Wing-Keung Wong 76.1 Introduction .1173 76.2 The Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis .1175 76.3 Data and Methodology .1175 76.4 Empirical Findings in NYSE .1176 76.5 Conclusion .1178 References .1179 Appendix 76A .1180 Contents 77 Application of Fuzzy Set Theory to Finance Research: Method and Application .1183 Shin-Yun Wang and Cheng Few Lee 77.1 Introduction .1183 77.2 Fuzzy Set .1184 77.3 Applications of Fuzzy Set Theory .1190 77.4 A Example of Fuzzy Binomial 0PM .1194 77.5 An Example of Real Options .1196 77.6 Fuzzy Regression .1197 77.7 Conclusion .1198 References .1199 78 Hedonic Regression Analysis in Real Estate Markets: A Primer .1201 Ben J. Sopranzetti 78.1 Introduction .1201 78.2 The Theoretical Foundation .1201 78.3 The Data .1202 78.4 The Linear Model .1202 78.5 Empirical Specification .1203 78.6 The Semi-Log Model .1204 78.7 The Box -Сох Model .1205 78.8 Problems with Hedonic Modeling .1205 78.9 Recent Developments .1206 78.10 Conclusion .1207 References .1207 79 Numerical Solutions of Financial Partial Differential Equations .1209 Gang Nathan Dong 79.1 Introduction .1209 79.2 The Model .1209 79.3 Discretization .1210 79.4 Finite Difference .1210 79.5 Finite Volume .1217 79.6 Finite Element .1218 79.7 Empirical Result .1219 79.8 Conclusion .1220 References .1220 Further Reading .1221 80 A Primer on the Implicit Financing Assumptions of Traditional Capital Budgeting Approaches .1223 Ivan E. Brick and Daniel G. Weaver 80.1 Introduction .1223 80.2 Textbook Approaches to NPV .1224 80.3 Theoretical Valuation of Cash Flows .1226 80.4 An Example .1228 80.5 Personal Tax and Miller Equilibrium .1229 80.6 Conclusion .1231 References .1232 81 Determinants of Flows into U-S.-Based International Mutual Funds .1235 Dilip K. Patro 81.1 Introduction .1235 81.2 Motivation and Hypotheses .1236 Contents 81.3 Data.1237 81.4 Methodology and Empirical Results .1238 81.5 Conclusion .1247 References .1253 Appendix 81 A Econometric Analysis of Panel Data .1253 82 Predicting Bond Yields Using Defensive Forecasting .1257 Glenn Shafer and Samuel Ring 82.1 Introduction .1257 82.2 Game-Theoretic Probability .1260 82.3 Defensive Forecasting .1265 82.4 Predicting Bond Yields .1269 82.5 Conclusion .1271 References .1271 83 Range Volatility Models and Their Applications in Finance .1273 Ray Yeutien Chou, Hengchih Chou, and Nathan Liu 83.1 Introduction .1273 83.2 The Price Range Estimators .1274 83.3 The Range-Based Volatility Models .1276 83.4 The Realized Range Volatility .1278 83.5 The Financial Applications and Limitations of the Range Volatility .1279 83.6 Conclusion .1279 References .1280 84 Examining the Impact of the U.S. IT Stock Market on Other IT Stock Markets .1283 Zhuo Qiao, Venus Khim-Sen Liew, and Wing-Keung Wong 84.1 Introduction .1283 84.2 Data and Methodology .1284 84.3 Empirical Results .1285 84.4 Conclusions .1289 References .1289 Appendix 84A .1290 85 Application of Alternative ODE in Finance and Economics Research .1293 Cheng-Few Lee and Junmin Shi 85.1 Introduction .1293 85.2 Ordinary Differential Equation .1294 85.3 Applications of ODE in Deterministic System .1295 85.4 Applications of ODE in Stochastic System .1297 85.5 Conclusion .1300 References .1300 86 Application of Simultaneous Equation in Finance Research .1301 Carl R. Chen and Cheng Few Lee 86.1 Introduction .1301 86.2 Two-Stage and Three-Stage Least Squares Method .1302 86.3 Application of Simultaneous Equation in Finance Research .1305 86.4 Conclusion .1305 References .1306 Contents 87 The Fuzzy Set and Data Mining Applications in Accounting and Finance .1307 Wikil Kwak, Yong Shi, and Cheng-Few Lee 87.1 Introduction .1307 87.2 A Fuzzy Approach to International Transfer Pricing .1307 87.3 A Fuzzy Set Approach to Human Resource Allocation of a CPA Firm .1312 87.4 A Fuzzy Set Approach to Accounting Information System Selection .1316 87.5 Fuzzy Set Formulation to Capital Budgeting .1319 87.6 A Data Mining Approach to Firm Bankruptcy Predictions .1324 87.7 Conclusion .1329 References .1329 88 Forecasting S&P 100 Volatility: The Incremental Information Content of Implied Volatilities and High-Frequency Index Returns .1333 Bevan J. Blair, Ser-Huang Poon, and Stephen J. Taylor 88.1 Introduction .1333 88.2 Data .1334 88.3 Methodology for Forecasting Volatility .1336 88.4 Results .1338 88.5 Conclusion .1343 References .1344 89 Detecting Structural Instability in Financial Time Series .1345 Derann Hsu 89.1 Introduction .1345 89.2 Genesis of the Literature .1345 89.3 Problems of Multiple Change Points .1347 89.4 Here Came the GARCH and Its Brethrens .1348 89.5 Examples of Structural Shift Analysis in Financial Time Series .1349 89.6 Implications of Structural Instability to Financial Theories and Practice _1352 89.7 Direction of Future Research and Developments .1353 89.8 Epilogue .1354 References .1354 90 The Instrument Variable Approach to Correct for Endogeneity in Finance . 1357 Chia-Jane Wang 90.1 Introduction .1357 90.2 Endogeneity: The Statistical Issue .1358 90.3 Instrumental Variables Approach to Endogeneity .1358 90.4 Validity of Instrumental Variables .1361 90.5 Identification and Inferences with Weak Instruments .1364 90.6 Empirical Applications in Corporate Finance .1366 90.7 Conclusion .1368 References .1368 91 Bayesian Inference of Financial Models Using MCMC Algorithms .1371 Xianghua Liu, Liuling Li, and Hiroki Tsurumi 91.1 Introduction .1371 91.2 Bayesian Inference and MCMC Algorithms .1371 91.3 CKLS Model with ARMA-GARCH Errors .1374 91.4 Copula Model for FTSE100 and S&P500 .1376 91.5 Conclusion .1379 References .1380 Contents_xxix 92 On Capital Structure and Entry Deterrence .1381 Fathali Firoozi and Donald Lien 92.1 Introduction .1381 92.2 The Setting .1382 92.3 Equilibrium .1384 92.4 Capital Structure and Entry Deterrence .1386 92.5 Conclusion .1388 References .1389 93 VAR Models: Estimation, Inferences, and Applications .1391 Yangru Wu and Xing Zhou 93.1 Introduction .1391 93.2 A Brief Discussion of VAR Models .1391 93.3 Applications of VARs in Finance .1393 93.4 Conclusion .1397 References .1397 94 Signaling Models and Product Market Games in Finance: Do We Know What We Know? .1399 Kose John and Anant K. Sundaram 94.1 Introduction .1399 94.2 Supermodularity: Definitions .1400 94.3 Supermodularity in Signaling Models .1400 94.4 Supermodularity in Product Market Games .1403 94.5 Empirical Evidence .1406 94.6 Conclusion .1407 References .1407 95 Estimation of Short- and Long-Term VaR for Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility Models .1409 Hwai-Chung Ho and Fang-I Liu 95.1 Introduction .1409 95.2 Long Memory in Stochastic Volatility .1410 95.3 VaR Calculation .1411 95.4 Conclusions .1414 References .1414 96 Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of the Volatilities of Asset Returns _1417 Tze Leung Lai and Haipeng Xing 96.1 Introduction .1417 96.2 Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models .1417 96.3 Regime-Switching, Change-Point and Spline-GARCH Models of Volatility .1421 96.4 Multivariate Volatility Models and Applications to Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization .1424 96.5 Conclusion .1425 References .1425 97 Listing Effects and the Private Company Discount in Bank Acquisitions .1427 Atui Gupta and Lalatendu Misra 97.1 Introduction .1427 97.2 Why Acquiring Firms May Pay Less for Unlisted Targets .1428 97.3 Sample Characteristics .1430 97.4 Event Study Analysis .1431 97.5 Findings Based on Multiples .1433 Contents 97.6 Cross-Sectional Analysis. 1439 97.7 Conclusions .1442 References .1443 98 An ODE Approach for the Expected Discounted Penalty at Ruin in Jump Diffusion Model (Reprint) .1445 Yu-Ting Chen, Cheng-Few Lee, and Yuan-Chung Sheu 98.1 Introduction .1445 98.2 Integra-Differential Equation .1446 98.3 Explicit Formula for Φ - ODE Method .1448 98.4 The Constant Vector Q: Second Method .1453 98.5 Conclusion .1457 References .1458 Appendix 98A Proofs .1458 Appendix 98B Toolbox for Phase-Type Distributions .1462 Appendix 98C First Order Derivative of Φ at Zero .1462 99 Alternative Models for Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital for Property/Casualty Insurers .1465 Alice C. Lee and J. David Cummins 99.1 Introduction .1465 99.2 Prior Work .1466 99.3 Model-Specification and Estimation .1467 99.4 Data Description and Cost of Equity Capital Estimates .1470 99.5 Evaluations of Simulations and Estimates .1476 99.6 Summary and Conclusion .1480 References .1481 100 Implementing a Multifactor Term Structure Model .1483 Ren-Raw Chen and Louis O. Scott 100.1 Introduction .1483 100.2 A Multifactor Term Structure Model .1483 100.3 Pricing Options in the Multifactor Model .1485 100.4 Calibrating a Multifactor Model .1487 100.5 Conclusion .1488 References .1488 101 Taking Positive Interest Rates Seriously .1489 Enlin Pan and Liuren Wu 101.1 Introduction .1489 101.2 Background .1490 101.3 The Model .1491 101.4 The Hump-Shaped Forward Rate Curve .1494 101.5 Fitting the US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Swap Rates .1495 101.6 Extensions: Jumps in Interest Rates .1498 101.7 Conclusion .1500 References .1500 Appendix 101A Factor Representation .1501 Appendix 101B Extended Kalman Filter and Quasilikelihood .1502 Contents XXXI 102 Positive Interest Rates and Yields: Additional Serious Considerations .1503 Jonathan Ingersoll 102.1 Introduction .1503 102.2 A Non-Zero Bound for Interest Rates .1503 102.3 The Cox-IngersoII-Ross and Pan-Wu Term Structure Models .1504 102.4 Bubble-Free Prices .1506 102.5 Multivariate Affine Term-Structure Models with Zero Bounds on Yields . 1511 102.6 Non-Affine Term Structures with Yields Bounded at Zero .1514 102.7 Non-Zero Bounds for Yields .1516 102.8 Conclusion .1517 References .1517 Appendix 102A .1517 1 02A. 1 Derivation of the Probability and State price for rT = 0 for the PW Model .1517 102A.2 Bond Price When r, — 0 Is Accessible for Only the Risk-Neutral Process .1519 102A.3 Properties of the Affine Exponentially Smoothed Average Model . 1520 102A.4 Properties of the Three-Halves Power Interest Rate Process .1521 103 Functional Forms for Performance Evaluation: Evidence from Closed-End Country Funds .1523 Cheng-Few Lee, Dilip K. Patro, and Bo Liu 103.1 Introduction and Motivation .1523 103.2 Literature Review .1524 103.3 Model Estimation .1526 103.4 Data and Methodology .1527 103.5 Empirical Results .1534 103.6 Conclusion .1545 References .1553 104 A Semimartingale BSDE Related to the Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure .1555 Michael Mania, Marina Santacroce, and Revaz Tevzadze 104.1 Introduction .1555 104.2 Some Basic Definitions, Conditions, and Auxiliary Facts .1556 104.3 Backward Semimartingale Equation for the Value Process .1558 104.4 Conclusions .1564 References .1565 105 The Density Process of the Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure in a Stochastic Volatility Model with Jumps (Reprint) .1567 Fred Espen Benth and Thilo Meyer-Brandis 105.1 Introduction .1567 105.2 The Market .1568 105.3 The Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure .1569 105.4 The Density Process .1571 105.5 The Entropy Price of Derivatives and Integra-Partial Differential Equations .1573 105.6 Conclusions .1574 References .1575 xxxii Contents 106 Arbitrage Detection from Stock Data: An Empirical Study. 1577 Cheng-Der Fuh and Szu-Yu Pai 106.1 Introduction. 1577 106.2 Arbitrage Detection: Volatility Change .1579 106.3 Arbitrage Detection: Mean Change .1583 106.4 Empirical Studies .1586 106.5 Conclusions and Further Researches .1590 References .1591 107 Detecting Corporate Failure .1593 Yanzhi Wang, Lin Lin, Hsien-Chang Kuo, and Jenifer Piesse 107.1 Introduction .1593 107.2 The Possible Causes of Bankruptcy .1594 107.3 The Methods of Bankruptcy .1594 107.4 Prediction Model for Corporate Failure .1596 107.5 The Selection of Optimal Cutoff Point .1603 107.6 Recent Development .1604 107.7 Conclusion .1604 References .1604 108 Genetic Programming for Option Pricing .1607 N.K. Chidambaran 108.1 Introduction .1607 108.2 Genetic Program Elements .1608 108.3 Black-Scholes Example .1611 108.4 Extensions .1613 108.5 Conclusion .1613 References .1614 109 A Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) Family of Stock Price Distributions in Option Pricing, Review, and Integration .1615 Ren-Raw Chen and Cheng-Few Lee 109.1 Introduction .1615 109.2 The CEV Diffusion and Its Transition Density .1616 109.3 The CEV Option Pricing Models .1619 109.4 Computing the Non-Central Chi-Square Probabilities .1622 109.5 Conclusion .1623 Appendix 109A .1623 References .1625 References .1627 Author Index .1685 Subject Index .1709
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