Reconstructing macroeconomics: a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2007
|
| Series: | Japan-U.S. Center UFJ Bank monographs on international financial markets
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVIII, 333 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780521831062 0521831067 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 020 | |a 9780521831062 |c hbk : £ 45.00 |9 978-0-521-83106-2 | ||
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Reconstructing macroeconomics |b a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes |c Masanao Aoki ; Hiroshi Yoshikawa |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge [u.a.] |b Cambridge Univ. Press |c 2007 | |
| 300 | |a XVIII, 333 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
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| 490 | 0 | |a Japan-U.S. Center UFJ Bank monographs on international financial markets | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Macroéconomie - Modèles mathématiques | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Stochastische processen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Yoshikawa, Hiroshi |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804137204549681152 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface
by Masanao Aoki page
xv
Preface by Hiroshi Yoshikawa
xvii
1
Introduction: A
New Approach to Macroeconomics
1
Equilibrium as Distribution
-
The Role of Demand in
Macroeconomics
13
Uncertainty Trap, Policy Ineffectiveness, and Long Stagnation
oftheMacroeconomy
14
Slow Dynamics of Macro System: Inflexible Prices
16
Business Cycles
17
Labor Market Dynamics
-
A New Look at the Natural
Unemployment and Okun s Law
20
Demand Saturation-Creation and Economic Growth
21
The Types of Investors and Stock Market
24
Stock Prices and the Real Economy
24
Summing Up
26
2
The Methods: Jump Markov Process and Random Partitions
28
Two Classes of Methods
29
2.1
First Class of Methods: Stochastic Dynamics
29
Jump Markov Process
30
Setting Up the Master Equation
32
Solving the Master Equation
34
The Fokker-Planck Equation
40
Potential Representation and Multiple Equilibria
42
Dynamics about an Equilibrium Point
43
2.2
Second Class of Methods: Random Cluster Formation
43
Dynamics of Clustering Processes
44
Partition Vector
48
Poisson-Dirichlet Distribution: The Distribution of Order
Statistics of Market Shares
52
£
Contents
Appendix
2.1:
Alternate Derivation of Ewens Sampling
Formula
53
Appendix
2.2:
Cluster Size Distribution and Stirling Numbers
54
Appendix
2.3:
Application of Generating Function to
Random Process of the Number of Types
56
3
Equilibrium as Distribution: The Role of Demand
in Macroeconomics
58
3.1
Microeconomic
Foundations
60
Binary Choice Model
60
Microeconomic
Foundations for Transition Rates
62
Value Function and Dynamic Optimization
66
Diamond Search Model
68
3.2
Equilibrium in the Macroeconomy
73
Distribution of Productivity in Equilibrium
-
The
Boltzmann—Gibbs Distribution
78
The Old Keynesian Cross
83
Differences in Productivity
-
A Glance at Data
84
3.3
Concluding Remarks
87
4
Uncertainty Trap: Policy Ineffectiveness and Long Stagnation
of the Macroeconomy
8 9
4.1
The Model
90
The Master Equation
93
4.2
Uncertainty and Policy Ineffectiveness
97
Multiple Equilibria
99
The Effectiveness of Policy
102
4.3
The Japanese Economy during the
1990s -
A Case Study
104
The Economy
105
Monetary Policy and Investment
109
Liquidity Trap and Inflation Targeting
112
Some Suggestive Evidence
117
4.4
Concluding Remarks
119
5
Slow Dynamics of Macro System: No Mystery
of Inflexible Prices
121
5.1
Tree Models for Spillover of Exogenous Shocks
122
Trees
123
Ultrametric Dynamics of Spillover Probabilities
125
Power Law
130
Economic Temperature
132
5.2
Inflexible Prices
133
5.3
Flat Landscape Problems and Slow Dynamics
139
The Metropolis Algorithm
139
Model
140
5.4
Concluding Remarks
143
Contents xi
Appendix 5.1:
Incomplete
Gamma Function
144
Appendix
5.2:
Examples of Ultrametric Dynamics
145
Two-State Example
145
Three-State Example
146
6
Business Cycles: An Endogenous Stochastic Approach
148
6.1
Introduction
148
6.2
The Model
152
Transition Rates
156
Holding Time
156
Output and Excess Demand
157
6.3
Stationary Equilibrium
158
6.4
Two-Sector Model
159
The Expected Value of GDP
162
6.5
Simulation
167
Aggregate Fluctuations
168
Demand, GDP, and Employment
170
Allocative Disturbances
175
Emergence of New Sectors
181
6.6
Discussion
183
Appendix
6.1:
Dynamics of the Two-Sector Model
187
Master Equation
187
Two-Sector Dynamics
188
Most Likely Path and Stationary Probability Distributions
in Region R3LI
Ü4 189
7
Labor Market: A New Look at the Natural Unemployment
and Okun s Law
190
7.1
Background
190
7.2
The Model
196
Total Output and Excess Demand
196
State of Each Sector
198
Unemployment Pools
200
7.3
Simulation
202
7.4
Discussion
210
Natural Unemployment
212
Okun s Law
213
Procyclical Productivity
216
8
Demand Saturation-Creation and Economic Growth
218
8.1
Introduction
218
8.2
The Model
222
Final Goods
223
Intermediate Good
225
Emergence of New Final Goods or Industries
225
xii Contents
8.3
Growth of the Macroeconomy
227
The Basic Result
227
An Extension: The Non-Poisson Polya Urn Model
232
8.4
Foundations for the Logistic Growth of Demand
234
The Firm s Investment Decisions
234
The Consumer s Consumption/Saving Decisions
237
8.5
Discussion
243
The Postwar Japanese Experience: A Case Study
247
9
The Types of Investors and Volatility in Financial Markets:
Analyzing Clusters of Heterogeneous Agents
255
9.1
Introduction
255
9.2
Cluster Formation in Financial Markets
256
Distribution of Agent Types
256
Size Distribution of Strategy Clusters
258
Number of Clusters and Value of
θ
259
Fractions
260
The Expected Share of the Largest Fraction
261
Two Largest Fractions
263
9.3
Market Volatility
264
Market Excess Demand
264
Market Equilibrium
265
Power Laws for the Distribution of Prices
267
9.4
Concluding Remark
269
Appendix
9.1:
Joint Probability Density for
r
Largest Fractions
270
Appendix
9.2:
The Calculation of the Expected Share
of the Largest Fraction
272
10
Stock Prices and the Real Economy: Power-Law versus Exponential
Distributions
275
10.1
Introduction
275
10.2
The Power-Law Behavior of Stock Prices and Returns
278
Normal Distribution
279
Power Laws and Levy Flight
281
Asset Prices
283
Growth of Real Variables
286
10.3
The Problem with the Standard Asset Pricing Model
286
Model of Rational Bubbles
287
Difficulty Faced by the Standard Model
288
10.4
Underlying Mechanism: A Truncated Levy Flight Model
291
The Real Economy
291
Exponential Distribution
295
Financial Returns
298
10.5
Concluding Remarks on Real and Financial Markets
301
Appendix
10.1:
Power Laws Derived from the
Langevin
Equation
302
Contents xiii
Appendix 10.2:
Examples of
Power
Laws in Clusters
304
Large Deviations and Power Laws
304
Yule Process
304
Birth-Death Process with Second-Order Balanced Rates
305
Yule-Simon Model
305
The Chinese Restaurant Process and Its Variants
306
References
309
Author Index
321
Subject Index
325
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Preface
by Masanao Aoki page
xv
Preface by Hiroshi Yoshikawa
xvii
1
Introduction: A
New Approach to Macroeconomics
1
Equilibrium as Distribution
-
The Role of Demand in
Macroeconomics
13
Uncertainty Trap, Policy Ineffectiveness, and Long Stagnation
oftheMacroeconomy
14
Slow Dynamics of Macro System: Inflexible Prices
16
Business Cycles
17
Labor Market Dynamics
-
A New Look at the Natural
Unemployment and Okun's Law
20
Demand Saturation-Creation and Economic Growth
21
The Types of Investors and Stock Market
24
Stock Prices and the Real Economy
24
Summing Up
26
2
The Methods: Jump Markov Process and Random Partitions
28
Two Classes of Methods
29
2.1
First Class of Methods: Stochastic Dynamics
29
Jump Markov Process
30
Setting Up the Master Equation
32
Solving the Master Equation
34
The Fokker-Planck Equation
40
Potential Representation and Multiple Equilibria
42
Dynamics about an Equilibrium Point
43
2.2
Second Class of Methods: Random Cluster Formation
43
Dynamics of Clustering Processes
44
Partition Vector
48
Poisson-Dirichlet Distribution: The Distribution of Order
Statistics of Market Shares
52
£
Contents
Appendix
2.1:
Alternate Derivation of Ewens Sampling
Formula
53
Appendix
2.2:
Cluster Size Distribution and Stirling Numbers
54
Appendix
2.3:
Application of Generating Function to
Random Process of the Number of Types
56
3
Equilibrium as Distribution: The Role of Demand
in Macroeconomics
58
3.1
Microeconomic
Foundations
60
Binary Choice Model
60
Microeconomic
Foundations for Transition Rates
62
Value Function and Dynamic Optimization
66
Diamond Search Model
68
3.2
Equilibrium in the Macroeconomy
73
Distribution of Productivity in Equilibrium
-
The
Boltzmann—Gibbs Distribution
78
The Old Keynesian Cross
83
Differences in Productivity
-
A Glance at Data
84
3.3
Concluding Remarks
87
4
Uncertainty Trap: Policy Ineffectiveness and Long Stagnation
of the Macroeconomy
8 9
4.1
The Model
90
The Master Equation
93
4.2
Uncertainty and Policy Ineffectiveness
97
Multiple Equilibria
99
The Effectiveness of Policy
102
4.3
The Japanese Economy during the
1990s -
A Case Study
104
The Economy
105
Monetary Policy and Investment
109
Liquidity Trap and Inflation Targeting
112
Some Suggestive Evidence
117
4.4
Concluding Remarks
119
5
Slow Dynamics of Macro System: No Mystery
of Inflexible Prices
121
5.1
Tree Models for Spillover of Exogenous Shocks
122
Trees
123
Ultrametric Dynamics of Spillover Probabilities
125
Power Law
130
Economic Temperature
132
5.2
Inflexible Prices
133
5.3
"Flat Landscape" Problems and Slow Dynamics
139
The Metropolis Algorithm
139
Model
140
5.4
Concluding Remarks
143
Contents xi
Appendix 5.1:
Incomplete
Gamma Function
144
Appendix
5.2:
Examples of Ultrametric Dynamics
145
Two-State Example
145
Three-State Example
146
6
Business Cycles: An Endogenous Stochastic Approach
148
6.1
Introduction
148
6.2
The Model
152
Transition Rates
156
Holding Time
156
Output and Excess Demand
157
6.3
Stationary Equilibrium
158
6.4
Two-Sector Model
159
The Expected Value of GDP
162
6.5
Simulation
167
Aggregate Fluctuations
168
Demand, GDP, and Employment
170
Allocative Disturbances
175
Emergence of New Sectors
181
6.6
Discussion
183
Appendix
6.1:
Dynamics of the Two-Sector Model
187
Master Equation
187
Two-Sector Dynamics
188
Most Likely Path and Stationary Probability Distributions
in Region R3LI
Ü4 189
7
Labor Market: A New Look at the Natural Unemployment
and Okun's Law
190
7.1
Background
190
7.2
The Model
196
Total Output and Excess Demand
196
State of Each Sector
198
Unemployment Pools
200
7.3
Simulation
202
7.4
Discussion
210
Natural Unemployment
212
Okun's Law
213
Procyclical Productivity
216
8
Demand Saturation-Creation and Economic Growth
218
8.1
Introduction
218
8.2
The Model
222
Final Goods
223
Intermediate Good
225
Emergence of New Final Goods or Industries
225
xii Contents
8.3
Growth of the Macroeconomy
227
The Basic Result
227
An Extension: The Non-Poisson Polya Urn Model
232
8.4
Foundations for the Logistic Growth of Demand
234
The Firm's Investment Decisions
234
The Consumer's Consumption/Saving Decisions
237
8.5
Discussion
243
The Postwar Japanese Experience: A Case Study
247
9
The Types of Investors and Volatility in Financial Markets:
Analyzing Clusters of Heterogeneous Agents
255
9.1
Introduction
255
9.2
Cluster Formation in Financial Markets
256
Distribution of Agent Types
256
Size Distribution of Strategy Clusters
258
Number of Clusters and Value of
θ
259
Fractions
260
The Expected Share of the Largest Fraction
261
Two Largest Fractions
263
9.3
Market Volatility
264
Market Excess Demand
264
Market Equilibrium
265
Power Laws for the Distribution of Prices
267
9.4
Concluding Remark
269
Appendix
9.1:
Joint Probability Density for
r
Largest Fractions
270
Appendix
9.2:
The Calculation of the Expected Share
of the Largest Fraction
272
10
Stock Prices and the Real Economy: Power-Law versus Exponential
Distributions
275
10.1
Introduction
275
10.2
The Power-Law Behavior of Stock Prices and Returns
278
Normal Distribution
279
Power Laws and Levy Flight
281
Asset Prices
283
Growth of Real Variables
286
10.3
The Problem with the Standard Asset Pricing Model
286
Model of "Rational Bubbles"
287
Difficulty Faced by the Standard Model
288
10.4
Underlying Mechanism: A Truncated Levy Flight Model
291
The Real Economy
291
Exponential Distribution
295
Financial Returns
298
10.5
Concluding Remarks on Real and Financial Markets
301
Appendix
10.1:
Power Laws Derived from the
Langevin
Equation
302
Contents xiii
Appendix 10.2:
Examples of
Power
Laws in Clusters
304
Large Deviations and Power Laws
304
Yule Process
304
Birth-Death Process with Second-Order Balanced Rates
305
Yule-Simon Model
305
The Chinese Restaurant Process and Its Variants
306
References
309
Author Index
321
Subject Index
325 |
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| id | DE-604.BV022958878 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T19:03:53Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:08:35Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780521831062 0521831067 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016163269 |
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| physical | XVIII, 333 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2007 |
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| publisher | Cambridge Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Japan-U.S. Center UFJ Bank monographs on international financial markets |
| spelling | Aoki, Masanao Verfasser aut Reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes Masanao Aoki ; Hiroshi Yoshikawa Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2007 XVIII, 333 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Japan-U.S. Center UFJ Bank monographs on international financial markets Macro-economie gtt Macroéconomie - Modèles mathématiques Stochastische processen gtt Mathematisches Modell Macroeconomics Mathematical models Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 s DE-604 Yoshikawa, Hiroshi Verfasser aut Digitalisierung UB Bamberg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016163269&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Aoki, Masanao Yoshikawa, Hiroshi Reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes Macro-economie gtt Macroéconomie - Modèles mathématiques Stochastische processen gtt Mathematisches Modell Macroeconomics Mathematical models Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4037174-8 |
| title | Reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes |
| title_auth | Reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes |
| title_exact_search | Reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes |
| title_full | Reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes Masanao Aoki ; Hiroshi Yoshikawa |
| title_fullStr | Reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes Masanao Aoki ; Hiroshi Yoshikawa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes Masanao Aoki ; Hiroshi Yoshikawa |
| title_short | Reconstructing macroeconomics |
| title_sort | reconstructing macroeconomics a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes |
| title_sub | a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes |
| topic | Macro-economie gtt Macroéconomie - Modèles mathématiques Stochastische processen gtt Mathematisches Modell Macroeconomics Mathematical models Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Macro-economie Macroéconomie - Modèles mathématiques Stochastische processen Mathematisches Modell Macroeconomics Mathematical models Makroökonomie |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016163269&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aokimasanao reconstructingmacroeconomicsaperspectivefromstatisticalphysicsandcombinatorialstochasticprocesses AT yoshikawahiroshi reconstructingmacroeconomicsaperspectivefromstatisticalphysicsandcombinatorialstochasticprocesses |