Macrofinancial risk analysis:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Chichester [u.a.]
Wiley
2008
|
| Series: | Wiley finance series
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Publisher description Contributor biographical information Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Literaturangaben |
| Physical Description: | XVII, 342 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780470058312 |
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MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Macrofinancial risk analysis |c Dale F. Gray and Samuel W. Malone |
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| 856 | 4 | |u http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0810/2008003729-b.html |3 Contributor biographical information | |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804137139924893696 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Foreword
xv
Preface
xix
1
Introduction
1
PART I OVERVIEW OF FINANCE, MACROECONOMICS, AND RISK
CONCEPTS
7
2
An Overview of Macroeconomics, and Why the Theory of Asset Pricing
and Contingent Claims Should Shape its Future
9
2.1
An overview of macroeconomics
10
2.2
How uncertainty is incorporated into macroeconomic models
13
2.3
Missing components in macro models: balance sheets with risk,
default, and (nonlinear) risk exposures
15
2.4
Asset-pricing theory, financial derivatives pricing, and contingent
claims analysis
17
2.5 Autoregression in
economics vs. random walks in finance
19
2.6
Asset price process related to a threshold or barrier
21
2.7
Relating finance models and risk analytics to macroeconomic models
23
2.8
Toward macrofinancial engineering
24
2.9
Summary
25
References
26
3
Macroeconomic Models
29
3.1
The Hicks-Hansen IS-LM model of a closed economy
29
3.2
The Mundell-Fleming model of an open economy
33
3.3
A dynamic, stochastic, five-equation, small open economy macro model
38
3.4
Summary
42
References
42
Macrofinancial
Risk Analysis
Stochastic Processes, Asset Pricing, and Option Pricing
43
4.1
Stochastic processes
43
4.2
Itô s
lemma
46
4.3
Asset pricing: Arrow-Debreu securities and the replicating
portfolio
47
4.4
Put and call option values
48
4.5
Pricing the options using the Black-Scholes-Merton formula
50
4.6
Market price of risk
52
4.7
Implications of incomplete markets for pricing
54
4.8
Summary
55
Appendix 4A Primer on relationship of put, call, and exchange options
55
Appendix 4B Physics, Feynman, and finance
57
References
57
Balance Sheets, Implicit Options, and Contingent Claims Analysis
59
5.1
Uncertain assets and probability of distress or default on debt
59
5.2
Probability of distress or default
60
5.3
Debt and equity as contingent claims
61
5.4
Payoff diagrams for contingent claims
62
5.5
Understanding why an implicit put option equals expected loss
63
5.6
Using the Merton model and Black-Scholes-Merton formula to value
contingent claims
64
5.7
Measuring asset values and volatilities
68
5.8
Estimating implied asset value and asset volatility from equity or
junior claims
68
5.9
Risk measures
71
5.10
Summary
72
References
72
Further Extensions and Applications of Contingent Claims Analysis
73
6.1
Extensions of the Merton model
73
6.2
Applications of CCA with different types of distress barriers and
liability structures
74
6.3
Risk-adjusted and actual probabilities using the market price of risk,
Sharpe
ratios, and recovery rates
78
6.4
Moody s-KMV approach
80
6.5
CCA using skewed asset distributions modeled with a mixture of
lognormals
81
6.6
Maximum likelihood methods
84
6.7
Incorporating stochastic interest rates and interest rate term structures
into structural CCA balance sheet models
85
6.8
Other structural models with stochastic interest rates
86
6.9
Summary
87
Appendix 6A Calculating parameters in the Vasicek model
87
References
88
Contents
PART II
THE
MACROFINANCE
MODELING FRAMEWORK
91
7
The
Macrofinance
Modeling Framework: Interlinked Sector Balance
Sheets
93
7.1
Contingent claim balance sheets for sectors
93
7.2
Measuring asset values and volatilities
98
7.3
Measuring risk exposures
100
7.4
Linkages in a simple four-sector framework
100
7.5
Integrated value and risk transmission between sectors
101
7.6
Policy effectiveness parameters in implicit options
105
7.7
Advantages of an integrated balance sheet risk approach
106
7.8
Summary
106
References
107
The
Macrofinance
Modeling Framework: A Closer Look at the Sovereign
CCA Balance Sheet
109
8.1
CCA balance sheet for the government and monetary authorities
109
8.2
Sovereign distress 111
8.3
Calculating implied sovereign assets and implied sovereign asset
volatility using CCA for the public sector balance sheet
111
8.4
Applications of the macrofinancial risk framework to sovereigns
115
8.5
Sovereign risk-neutral and estimated actual default probabilities on
foreign-currency-denominated debt
117
8.6
Spreads on sovereign foreign currency and local currency debt
118
8.7
Breaking down sovereign assets into key components
122
8.8
Risk-based scenario and policy analysis using calibrated sovereign
CCA related to spreads on foreign currency debt
123
8.9
Short-term and long-term government CCA balance sheets with
monetary authority
124
8.10
Summary
126
Appendix 8A Value and volatility of local currency liabilities and base
money
126
References
127
The Macroflnance Modeling Framework: Linking Interest Rate Models
in Finance and Macroeconomics
129
9.1
Overview of interest rate term structure models in finance
129
9.2
Two early theories: liquidity preference and the market for loanable
funds
131
9.3
Monetary policy, Taylor rules, and interest rates
131
9.4
Reconciling different perspectives on interest rate behavior
133
9.5
What to do when the monetary authority is linked closely to the
government balance sheet
135
9.6
Summary
136
References
137
Macrofînancial
Risk Analysis
10
Macrofinance
Modeling Framework: Financial Sector Risk and Stability
Analysis
139
10.1
Calculating risk indicators for individual banks or financial
institutions
139
10.2
Time series of financial system risk indicators
140
10.3
Snapshot of system risk
145
10.4
Expected loss as a portfolio of implicit put options
146
10.5
Using a structural Merton model with stochastic interest rates for
capital adequacy estimates
149
10.6
Factor model to assess key drivers of system risk and for scenario
analysis
150
10.7
Multifactor risk analysis using copulas
152
10.8
Household balance sheet risk
152
10.9
Linking banking sector loans to corporate, household, and other
borrowers
153
10.10
Foreign-currency-denominated loans and the impact of the presence
of foreign banks on banking system risk
154
10.11
CCA models, financial stability indicators and links to macro models
155
10.12
Summary
159
Appendix 10A CCA model for banks and borrowers with
foreign-currency-denominated debt and lending spreads based on
credit risk
160
References
161
11
Macrofinancial Modeling Framework: Extensions to Different Exchange
Rate Regimes
163
11.1
Floating exchange rate regimes, interest rates, and the sovereign
balance sheet
163
11.2
Fixed exchange rate regimes, interest rates and the sovereign
balance sheet
167
11.3
The impact of capital flows on the CCA sovereign balance sheet
172
11.4
Role of quasi-public entities in exchange rate management
173
11.5
Summary
174
References
174
PART III LINKING MACROFINANCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC
FRAMEWORKS
175
12
Sovereign Reserve, Debt, and Wealth Management from a
Macrofinancial Risk Perspective
177
12.1
Reserves adequacy and asset allocation: moving from simple rules
to a national framework
177
12.2
CCA for a firm with a subsidiary and its wealth management
179
12.3
Constructing contingent claim balance sheets for the national
economy
180
12.4
Macro risk and wealth management
181
12.5
Summary
184
References
185
Contents
13 Macrofinancial
Modeling
Framework:
Relationship to Accounting
Balance Sheets and the Flow of Funds
187
13.1
Economy-wide macro contingent claim balance sheets and risk
exposures
187
13.2
Recovering traditional
macroeconomic
budget constraints and flow
identities from CCA valuation equations when volatility is zero
191
13.3
Interlinkages between CCA balance sheets, flows, and risk
premiums
195
13.4
Using the production function to link corporate and household assets
197
13.5
Macrofmance,
macroeconomic
flows, and the business cycle
198
13.6
Summary
199
Appendix 13A Cross-holding by households and financial sectors of
contingent claims in other sectors
200
Appendix 13B Contingent claim values and returns of different sectors
201
References
202
14
Macrofinancial Risk Framework Linked to
Macroeconomic
Models
203
14.1
Adding risk analytics to the spectrum of
macroeconomic
models
203
14.2
The Mundell-Fleming model and default risk
204
14.3
Linking macrofmance outputs to DSGE models
206
14.4
Linking macrofinance outputs to dynamic, stochastic
macroeconomic
policy models
208
14.5
Linking macrofinance outputs to macroeconometric
VAR
models
215
14.6
An integrated policy framework
216
14.7
Summary
217
References
217
PART IV CRISIS AND DISTRESS IN ECONOMIES
219
15
Macroeconomic
Models vs. Crisis Models: Why Nonlinearity Matters
221
15.1
Recent financial crises and crisis models
222
15.2
Summary
229
References
229
16
Sensitivity Analysis, Destabilization Mechanisms, and Financial Crises
231
16.1
Sensitivity analysis, the Greeks , and the valuation multiplier effect
232
16.2
The volatility leverage effect
236
16.3
Feedback between the forward rate and domestic interest rates on
local currency debt
237
16.4
Feedback between local currency debt issuance and local currency
spreads in the presence of contingent liability constraints
241
16.5
Summary
244
References
245
17
The Case of Thailand,
1996-1999 247
17.1
Background
247
17.2
A macrofmance analysis of the Thai crisis
249
Macrofinancial
Risk Analysis
17.3
Scenario analysis
253
17.4
Summary
255
Appendix 17A Banking and corporate sector risk analysis with scenarios
257
References
258
18
The Brazil Crisis of
2002-2003 259
18.1
Background
259
18.2
A macrofmance analysis of the Brazil crisis
261
18.3
Summary
266
References
266
PART V MACROFINANCIAL MODEL APPLICATIONS AND
ANALYTICAL ISSUES
267
19
International Shocks, Risk Transmission, and Crisis Prevention:
Backdrop for Understanding the
2007-08
Global Financial Credit
Turmoil
269
19.1
Changing global environment and global risk
270
19.2
Types of global shocks and the interaction with macrofinancial risk
models
277
19.3
The international financial system and crisis prevention
281
19.4
Structuring an effective risk-management hierarchy from the
international level down to the country authorities
282
19.5
Summary
283
References
283
20
Macro Risk Management: Ways to Mitigate, Control, and Transfer Risk
in the Economy
285
20.1
Overview of ways to manage risk
285
20.2
Direct change in financial structure
287
20.3
Risk transfer
288
20.4
Management of guarantees
290
20.5
Longer-term risk management via institutional and policy change
293
20.6
Summary
294
References
294
21
Integrated Framework for Corporate and Sovereign Relative Value and
Capital Structure Arbitrage
297
21.1
Capital structure arbitrage for firms and financial institutions
297
21.2
Credit and equity cycles
299
21.3
Sovereign capital structure relative value
300
21.4
Summary
302
References
302
22
Conclusions and New Directions for
Macrofinance
303
22.1
Summary of conceptual issues
303
22.2
The roadmap for an integrated contingent claims
analysis-macroeconomic Model
306
Reference
309
Contents
Appendix
A
Mundell-Fleming
with a Risk Premium
311
A.I The model
311
A.2 Equilibrium
315
A.3 Monetary and fiscal policy
317
A.4 Summary
321
References
322
Index
323
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Foreword
xv
Preface
xix
1
Introduction
1
PART I OVERVIEW OF FINANCE, MACROECONOMICS, AND RISK
CONCEPTS
7
2
An Overview of Macroeconomics, and Why the Theory of Asset Pricing
and Contingent Claims Should Shape its Future
9
2.1
An overview of macroeconomics
10
2.2
How uncertainty is incorporated into macroeconomic models
13
2.3
Missing components in macro models: balance sheets with risk,
default, and (nonlinear) risk exposures
15
2.4
Asset-pricing theory, financial derivatives pricing, and contingent
claims analysis
17
2.5 Autoregression in
economics vs. random walks in finance
19
2.6
Asset price process related to a threshold or barrier
21
2.7
Relating finance models and risk analytics to macroeconomic models
23
2.8
Toward macrofinancial engineering
24
2.9
Summary
25
References
26
3
Macroeconomic Models
29
3.1
The Hicks-Hansen IS-LM model of a closed economy
29
3.2
The Mundell-Fleming model of an open economy
33
3.3
A dynamic, stochastic, five-equation, small open economy macro model
38
3.4
Summary
42
References
42
Macrofinancial
Risk Analysis
Stochastic Processes, Asset Pricing, and Option Pricing
43
4.1
Stochastic processes
43
4.2
Itô's
lemma
46
4.3
Asset pricing: Arrow-Debreu securities and the replicating
portfolio
47
4.4
Put and call option values
48
4.5
Pricing the options using the Black-Scholes-Merton formula
50
4.6
Market price of risk
52
4.7
Implications of incomplete markets for pricing
54
4.8
Summary
55
Appendix 4A Primer on relationship of put, call, and exchange options
55
Appendix 4B Physics, Feynman, and finance
57
References
57
Balance Sheets, Implicit Options, and Contingent Claims Analysis
59
5.1
Uncertain assets and probability of distress or default on debt
59
5.2
Probability of distress or default
60
5.3
Debt and equity as contingent claims
61
5.4
Payoff diagrams for contingent claims
62
5.5
Understanding why an implicit put option equals expected loss
63
5.6
Using the Merton model and Black-Scholes-Merton formula to value
contingent claims
64
5.7
Measuring asset values and volatilities
68
5.8
Estimating implied asset value and asset volatility from equity or
junior claims
68
5.9
Risk measures
71
5.10
Summary
72
References
72
Further Extensions and Applications of Contingent Claims Analysis
73
6.1
Extensions of the Merton model
73
6.2
Applications of CCA with different types of distress barriers and
liability structures
74
6.3
Risk-adjusted and actual probabilities using the market price of risk,
Sharpe
ratios, and recovery rates
78
6.4
Moody' s-KMV approach
80
6.5
CCA using skewed asset distributions modeled with a mixture of
lognormals
81
6.6
Maximum likelihood methods
84
6.7
Incorporating stochastic interest rates and interest rate term structures
into structural CCA balance sheet models
85
6.8
Other structural models with stochastic interest rates
86
6.9
Summary
87
Appendix 6A Calculating parameters in the Vasicek model
87
References
88
Contents
PART II
THE
MACROFINANCE
MODELING FRAMEWORK
91
7
The
Macrofinance
Modeling Framework: Interlinked Sector Balance
Sheets
93
7.1
Contingent claim balance sheets for sectors
93
7.2
Measuring asset values and volatilities
98
7.3
Measuring risk exposures
100
7.4
Linkages in a simple four-sector framework
100
7.5
Integrated value and risk transmission between sectors
101
7.6
Policy effectiveness parameters in implicit options
105
7.7
Advantages of an integrated balance sheet risk approach
106
7.8
Summary
106
References
107
The
Macrofinance
Modeling Framework: A Closer Look at the Sovereign
CCA Balance Sheet
109
8.1
CCA balance sheet for the government and monetary authorities
109
8.2
Sovereign distress 111
8.3
Calculating implied sovereign assets and implied sovereign asset
volatility using CCA for the public sector balance sheet
111
8.4
Applications of the macrofinancial risk framework to sovereigns
115
8.5
Sovereign risk-neutral and estimated actual default probabilities on
foreign-currency-denominated debt
117
8.6
Spreads on sovereign foreign currency and local currency debt
118
8.7
Breaking down sovereign assets into key components
122
8.8
Risk-based scenario and policy analysis using calibrated sovereign
CCA related to spreads on foreign currency debt
123
8.9
Short-term and long-term government CCA balance sheets with
monetary authority
124
8.10
Summary
126
Appendix 8A Value and volatility of local currency liabilities and base
money
126
References
127
The Macroflnance Modeling Framework: Linking Interest Rate Models
in Finance and Macroeconomics
129
9.1
Overview of interest rate term structure models in finance
129
9.2
Two early theories: liquidity preference and the market for loanable
funds
131
9.3
Monetary policy, Taylor rules, and interest rates
131
9.4
Reconciling different perspectives on interest rate behavior
133
9.5
What to do when the monetary authority is linked closely to the
government balance sheet
135
9.6
Summary
136
References
137
Macrofînancial
Risk Analysis
10
Macrofinance
Modeling Framework: Financial Sector Risk and Stability
Analysis
139
10.1
Calculating risk indicators for individual banks or financial
institutions
139
10.2
Time series of financial system risk indicators
140
10.3
Snapshot of system risk
145
10.4
Expected loss as a portfolio of implicit put options
146
10.5
Using a structural Merton model with stochastic interest rates for
capital adequacy estimates
149
10.6
Factor model to assess key drivers of system risk and for scenario
analysis
150
10.7
Multifactor risk analysis using copulas
152
10.8
Household balance sheet risk
152
10.9
Linking banking sector loans to corporate, household, and other
borrowers
153
10.10
Foreign-currency-denominated loans and the impact of the presence
of foreign banks on banking system risk
154
10.11
CCA models, financial stability indicators and links to macro models
155
10.12
Summary
159
Appendix 10A CCA model for banks and borrowers with
foreign-currency-denominated debt and lending spreads based on
credit risk
160
References
161
11
Macrofinancial Modeling Framework: Extensions to Different Exchange
Rate Regimes
163
11.1
Floating exchange rate regimes, interest rates, and the sovereign
balance sheet
163
11.2
Fixed exchange rate regimes, interest rates and the sovereign
balance sheet
167
11.3
The impact of capital flows on the CCA sovereign balance sheet
172
11.4
Role of quasi-public entities in exchange rate management
173
11.5
Summary
174
References
174
PART III LINKING MACROFINANCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC
FRAMEWORKS
175
12
Sovereign Reserve, Debt, and Wealth Management from a
Macrofinancial Risk Perspective
177
12.1
Reserves adequacy and asset allocation: moving from simple rules
to a national framework
177
12.2
CCA for a firm with a subsidiary and its wealth management
179
12.3
Constructing contingent claim balance sheets for the national
economy
180
12.4
Macro risk and wealth management
181
12.5
Summary
184
References
185
Contents
13 Macrofinancial
Modeling
Framework:
Relationship to Accounting
Balance Sheets and the Flow of Funds
187
13.1
Economy-wide macro contingent claim balance sheets and risk
exposures
187
13.2
Recovering traditional
macroeconomic
budget constraints and flow
identities from CCA valuation equations when volatility is zero
191
13.3
Interlinkages between CCA balance sheets, flows, and risk
premiums
195
13.4
Using the production function to link corporate and household assets
197
13.5
Macrofmance,
macroeconomic
flows, and the business cycle
198
13.6
Summary
199
Appendix 13A Cross-holding by households and financial sectors of
contingent claims in other sectors
200
Appendix 13B Contingent claim values and returns of different sectors
201
References
202
14
Macrofinancial Risk Framework Linked to
Macroeconomic
Models
203
14.1
Adding risk analytics to the spectrum of
macroeconomic
models
203
14.2
The Mundell-Fleming model and default risk
204
14.3
Linking macrofmance outputs to DSGE models
206
14.4
Linking macrofinance outputs to dynamic, stochastic
macroeconomic
policy models
208
14.5
Linking macrofinance outputs to macroeconometric
VAR
models
215
14.6
An integrated policy framework
216
14.7
Summary
217
References
217
PART IV CRISIS AND DISTRESS IN ECONOMIES
219
15
Macroeconomic
Models vs. Crisis Models: Why Nonlinearity Matters
221
15.1
Recent financial crises and crisis models
222
15.2
Summary
229
References
229
16
Sensitivity Analysis, Destabilization Mechanisms, and Financial Crises
231
16.1
Sensitivity analysis, the "Greeks", and the valuation multiplier effect
232
16.2
The volatility leverage effect
236
16.3
Feedback between the forward rate and domestic interest rates on
local currency debt
237
16.4
Feedback between local currency debt issuance and local currency
spreads in the presence of contingent liability constraints
241
16.5
Summary
244
References
245
17
The Case of Thailand,
1996-1999 247
17.1
Background
247
17.2
A macrofmance analysis of the Thai crisis
249
Macrofinancial
Risk Analysis
17.3
Scenario analysis
253
17.4
Summary
255
Appendix 17A Banking and corporate sector risk analysis with scenarios
257
References
258
18
The Brazil Crisis of
2002-2003 259
18.1
Background
259
18.2
A macrofmance analysis of the Brazil crisis
261
18.3
Summary
266
References
266
PART V MACROFINANCIAL MODEL APPLICATIONS AND
ANALYTICAL ISSUES
267
19
International Shocks, Risk Transmission, and Crisis Prevention:
Backdrop for Understanding the
2007-08
Global Financial Credit
Turmoil
269
19.1
Changing global environment and global risk
270
19.2
Types of global shocks and the interaction with macrofinancial risk
models
277
19.3
The international financial system and crisis prevention
281
19.4
Structuring an effective risk-management hierarchy from the
international level down to the country authorities
282
19.5
Summary
283
References
283
20
Macro Risk Management: Ways to Mitigate, Control, and Transfer Risk
in the Economy
285
20.1
Overview of ways to manage risk
285
20.2
Direct change in financial structure
287
20.3
Risk transfer
288
20.4
Management of guarantees
290
20.5
Longer-term risk management via institutional and policy change
293
20.6
Summary
294
References
294
21
Integrated Framework for Corporate and Sovereign Relative Value and
Capital Structure Arbitrage
297
21.1
Capital structure arbitrage for firms and financial institutions
297
21.2
Credit and equity cycles
299
21.3
Sovereign capital structure relative value
300
21.4
Summary
302
References
302
22
Conclusions and New Directions for
Macrofinance
303
22.1
Summary of conceptual issues
303
22.2
The roadmap for an integrated contingent claims
analysis-macroeconomic Model
306
Reference
309
Contents
Appendix
A
Mundell-Fleming
with a Risk Premium
311
A.I The model
311
A.2 Equilibrium
315
A.3 Monetary and fiscal policy
317
A.4 Summary
321
References
322
Index
323 |
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| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T18:49:29Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:07:33Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780470058312 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2008003729 |
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| spelling | Gray, Dale 1953- Verfasser (DE-588)13272393X aut Macrofinancial risk analysis Dale F. Gray and Samuel W. Malone Chichester [u.a.] Wiley 2008 XVII, 342 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley finance series Literaturangaben Macroeconomics Risk management Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s b DE-604 Malone, Samuel W. Verfasser aut http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0810/2008003729-d.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0810/2008003729-b.html Contributor biographical information Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016082808&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Gray, Dale 1953- Malone, Samuel W. Macrofinancial risk analysis Macroeconomics Risk management Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4037174-8 |
| title | Macrofinancial risk analysis |
| title_auth | Macrofinancial risk analysis |
| title_exact_search | Macrofinancial risk analysis |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Macrofinancial risk analysis |
| title_full | Macrofinancial risk analysis Dale F. Gray and Samuel W. Malone |
| title_fullStr | Macrofinancial risk analysis Dale F. Gray and Samuel W. Malone |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macrofinancial risk analysis Dale F. Gray and Samuel W. Malone |
| title_short | Macrofinancial risk analysis |
| title_sort | macrofinancial risk analysis |
| topic | Macroeconomics Risk management Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Macroeconomics Risk management Risikoanalyse Makroökonomie |
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