Estimating risk: a management approach
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Aldershot [u.a.]
Gower
2007
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVIII, 240 S. - Ill., zahlr. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780566087769 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Preface
PART I RISK MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW
1
Risk in Context
Risk management
Quantitative risk analysis
Estimating risk
2
A Brief Introduction to Risk Management
Taking stock
Risk vocabulary
The risk management process
Risk assessment
Information systems
3
Quantitative Risk Estimates
Taking stock
Representing uncertainty quantitatively
Risk models
Dependence between cost and sales
Modelling correlation
The core concepts
Real risk models
Risk registers and risk models
Summary
4
Using Risk Models
Moving forward
ABCo and its business plan: talking about risk
The waste management PPP
The bidder perspective
The subcontractor perspective
The client perspective
Negotiating
Managing the job
Summary
IX
xiii
XV
1
3
3
4
6
10
16
17
29
33
33
34
38
40
41
44
47
53
54
57
57
57
60
61
72
73
74
74
76
vi
Estimating Risk
PART II RISK MODELS
79
5
Reliability and Other Binary Models
81
Overview of reliability modelling
81
Fault and event trees
84
Summary
91
6
Cost and Other Additive Models
93
The ABCo model
93
The waste management PPP
99
Summary
115
7
Time and Programme
117
Schedule risk analysis
118
Contingencies
123
Summary
126
8
General Models
129
Influence diagrams
130
Bayesian networks
132
Decision trees
134
Summary
135
PARTIU
DECISIONS AND RISK
137
9
Public Sector Decisions
139
The Green Book
139
Procurement and risk transfer
144
Summary
147
10
Private Sector Decisions
149
What investors expect and what they get
149
What managers do
152
Can risk transfer be value for money?
154
11
Safety Decisions
157
A brief history of safety risk modelling and its use
157
Risk based regulation
-
a rational dream
160
The awakening
163
What does it mean for business risk modellers?
168
PART IV TECHNIQUES
171
12
Probability
173
Random processes and random variables
173
Probability distributions
175
Mean, variance and percentiles
179
Some more useful distributions
180
Multiple events, conditional probabilities and independence
184
Contents
vii
Joint
probability distributions and correlation
186
Functions of several random variables
188
Some approximations
189
Is probability relevant
192
13
Monte Carlo
195
The Monte Carlo concept
195
How to do Monte Carlo simulations
197
Modelling dependence
198
Visualisation and importance
200
Sampling and estimation
207
Summary
213
14
Other Methods
215
Exact methods
215
The direct method
217
Discrete probability distributions and Bayesian networks
218
When Monte Carlo does not work
219
Summary
222
15
Decision Analysis
223
Decision theory
223
Multi-attribute decisions
229
Decision trees
230
Summary
234
Index
235
About the Author
241
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Preface
PART I RISK MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW
1
Risk in Context
Risk management
Quantitative risk analysis
Estimating risk
2
A Brief Introduction to Risk Management
Taking stock
Risk vocabulary
The risk management process
Risk assessment
Information systems
3
Quantitative Risk Estimates
Taking stock
Representing uncertainty quantitatively
Risk models
Dependence between cost and sales
Modelling correlation
The core concepts
Real risk models
Risk registers and risk models
Summary
4
Using Risk Models
Moving forward
ABCo and its business plan: talking about risk
The waste management PPP
The bidder perspective
The subcontractor perspective
The client perspective
Negotiating
Managing the job
Summary
IX
xiii
XV
1
3
3
4
6
10
16
17
29
33
33
34
38
40
41
44
47
53
54
57
57
57
60
61
72
73
74
74
76
vi
Estimating Risk
PART II RISK MODELS
79
5
Reliability and Other Binary Models
81
Overview of reliability modelling
81
Fault and event trees
84
Summary
91
6
Cost and Other Additive Models
93
The ABCo model
93
The waste management PPP
99
Summary
115
7
Time and Programme
117
Schedule risk analysis
118
Contingencies
123
Summary
126
8
General Models
129
Influence diagrams
130
Bayesian networks
132
Decision trees
134
Summary
135
PARTIU
DECISIONS AND RISK
137
9
Public Sector Decisions
139
The Green Book
139
Procurement and risk transfer
144
Summary
147
10
Private Sector Decisions
149
What investors expect and what they get
149
What managers do
152
Can risk transfer be value for money?
154
11
Safety Decisions
157
A brief history of safety risk modelling and its use
157
Risk based regulation
-
a rational dream
160
The awakening
163
What does it mean for business risk modellers?
168
PART IV TECHNIQUES
171
12
Probability
173
Random processes and random variables
173
Probability distributions
175
Mean, variance and percentiles
179
Some more useful distributions
180
Multiple events, conditional probabilities and independence
184
Contents
vii
Joint
probability distributions and correlation
186
Functions of several random variables
188
Some approximations
189
Is probability relevant
192
13
Monte Carlo
195
The Monte Carlo concept
195
How to do Monte Carlo simulations
197
Modelling dependence
198
Visualisation and importance
200
Sampling and estimation
207
Summary
213
14
Other Methods
215
Exact methods
215
The direct method
217
Discrete probability distributions and Bayesian networks
218
When Monte Carlo does not work
219
Summary
222
15
Decision Analysis
223
Decision theory
223
Multi-attribute decisions
229
Decision trees
230
Summary
234
Index
235
About the Author
241 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-02T18:42:29Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:07:04Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780566087769 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016033064 |
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| physical | XVIII, 240 S. - Ill., zahlr. graph. Darst. |
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| spelling | Garlick, Andy Verfasser aut Estimating risk a management approach Andy Garlick Aldershot [u.a.] Gower 2007 XVIII, 240 S. - Ill., zahlr. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Risikomanagement / Entscheidung bei Risiko / Theorie Decision making Risk management Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 s Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s b DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016033064&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Garlick, Andy Estimating risk a management approach Risikomanagement / Entscheidung bei Risiko / Theorie Decision making Risk management Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4121590-4 (DE-588)4061963-1 |
| title | Estimating risk a management approach |
| title_auth | Estimating risk a management approach |
| title_exact_search | Estimating risk a management approach |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Estimating risk a management approach |
| title_full | Estimating risk a management approach Andy Garlick |
| title_fullStr | Estimating risk a management approach Andy Garlick |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating risk a management approach Andy Garlick |
| title_short | Estimating risk |
| title_sort | estimating risk a management approach |
| title_sub | a management approach |
| topic | Risikomanagement / Entscheidung bei Risiko / Theorie Decision making Risk management Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Risikomanagement / Entscheidung bei Risiko / Theorie Decision making Risk management Risikomanagement Unternehmen |
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