Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija:
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | Macedonian |
| Published: |
Skopje
Univ. "Sv. Kiril i Metodij", Ekonom. Inst.
2001
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Item Description: | PST: Population and labour force aging in the Republic of Macedonia. - In kyrill. Schr., mazedon. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache |
| Physical Description: | 242 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9989970793 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija |c Elka Dimitrieva ; Verica Janeska |
| 264 | 1 | |a Skopje |b Univ. "Sv. Kiril i Metodij", Ekonom. Inst. |c 2001 | |
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Record in the Search Index
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СОДРЖИНА
ПРЕДГОВОР
. 7
ВОВЕД
. 9
I.
СОСТШБИ, ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И КАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ
НА
СТАРЕЕЊЕТО
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
И НА РАБОТНАТА СИЛА
. .
13
А. ОБЕМ, ДИНАМИКА И КАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО СПОРЕД СТАРОСТ
-вкупно и регионално
. 14
1.
Промени на демографското сгарсаье
во
Република
Македонії
j
а
. 14
1.1.
Досегашни тенденции и
состојби
-
вкупно население
. 14
1.2.
Карактеристики на старосната структура
на градското и селското население
. 27
1.3.
Националната структура и стареенето на населението
33
1.4.
Проекции на вкуйното население
во
Република
Македонией до
2020
година
. 40
1.5.
Функционални старосно-полови контингенти
. 52
2.
Особености
на старссіьсто на
населението
но ОДДСЛШ1
општшш
. 58
2.1.
Промени
во
старосната структура
fia
вкуйното население
. 58
2.2.
Карактеристики на старосната структура
на градското и на селското население
. 70
Б. ОСОБЕНОСТИ НА СТРУКТУРАТА
НА РАБОТНАТА
СИЛА ВО
РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША
СПОРЕД СТАРОСТ-вкупно ирегионално
. 81
1.
Некой
индикатори за искористсноста
на работоспособшют контингент
. 81
1.1.
Коефициенти на старосна зависност
на вкуйното население
во
Република Макеоонща
. 81
1.2.
Коефициенти на старосна зависност
на населението йо одделнирпштини
.ν:.-.-^
.
S5
і'
*4*:*ча«3 \
!
ч*·":'!"'.
'ť-V'? í'
2.
Демографско
сгарссњс
на вкупната
работна
«їла
. 89
2.
L
Основни карактерисШики
за старееіьето
на
активното население
во
земјата
. 89
2,2.
Некой
регионални особености на старостта
структура на активното население
. 98
II.
ДЕМОГРАФСКИ И ДРУГИ ПРИЧИНИ
ЗА СТАРЕЕІЬЕТО НА
НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
ВО
РЕПУБЛИКА
МАКЕДОНИЈ
А
. 105
А. КОМПОНЕНТИТЕ НА ПРИРОДНОТО
ДВИЖЕЊЕ
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО И ПРОЦЕСОТ
НА НЕГОВО
СТАРЕЕЊЕ
.
Ю7
1.
Особености на наталитстот (фертилитстот),
морталитетот и природинот прираст на населението
во
Република
Македонија
. 108
2.
Регионални аспекти на динамиката на наталитстот,
морталитетот и природниот прираст на населението
. 114
3.
Карактсристнки на природното
дпижсіьс на
населението
во
периодот од
1989-2000
година
и претпоставки
за очекуваните промени до
2020
година
. 121
Б. ПРЕСЕЛНИЧКИТЕ
ДВИЖЕІЬА
И
СТАРЕЕЊЕТО
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
. 127
1.
Внатрснши миграции
. 128
2.
Надворсшни миграция
. 136
R
ЕКОНОМСКИ И ДРУГИ ПРИЧИНИ ЗА
СТАРЕЕЊЕТО
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
ВО
РЕПУБЛИКА
МАКЕДОНИЈА
. 146
Ш.
ИМПЛИКАЦИИ ОД
СТАРЕЕЇЬЕТО
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО.!
.:.1. 153
A. ДЕМОГРАФСКИ ПОСЛЕДИЦИ
. 153
Б. ИМПЛИКАЦИИ ВРЗ
РАБОТНАТА
СИЛА
. 159
B.
СТАРЕЕЊЕТО
НА
НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
ИЕКОНОМСКИОТРАЗВОЈ
. 164
1.
Ефекти
од старееіьето
врз скономскиот
развој
. 164
2.
Импликации врз систсмот на
трансфери
. 171
IV.
ЗАКЛУЧНИ СОГЛЕДБИ
. 183
ПРИЛОЗИ
. 197
SUMMARY
. 217
КОРИСТЕН
А ЛИТЕРАТУРА
. 227
ИЗД
АНИЈА
НА ЕКОНОСМКИОТ ИНСТИТУТ
-
СКОШЕ
. 235
SUMMARY
The problems related to the population and labour force aging, its
causes and consequences, have attracted the attention of the scientists in the
world, mostly from the middle of the eighties of the twentieth century, espe¬
cially in the developed countries. But, this process is today also important in
the developing countries, as well as in the former socialist, now transition
countries.
The Republic of Macedonia is also facing the process of demo¬
graphic aging. So, the research done by this work is treating the situation,
the trends and the characteristics of the population and labour force aging in
the Republic of Macedonia as a whole and regionally within the country.
The observed time frame for the whole country is between
1921
and
2020.
Depending on the available data, the changes on the regional level are ob¬
served in shorter or larger time intervals.
In determining the dynamics and the intensity of the demographic
aging process, as well as in identifying the current and future stages of the
demographic age, more relevant indications were applied. The demographic,
economic and other causes were analyzed, by treating primarily the natural
and migratory population movements. The consequences and the implica¬
tions caused by the aging processes are observed in general and are treated
by the particular aspects of its influence on the demographic development,
on the labour force and the economic development, as well as on the system
of transfers.
The aims of the research are as follows: determining the age struc¬
ture changes and the aging process of the population and the labour force;
determining the relevant causes for the demographic aging, especially the
regional differences; the appraisal of the current situation and its demo¬
graphic, economic and other consequences and implications; timely antici¬
pation of future changes and the necessity of appropriate steering of the
demographic movements.
217
Сшареење
ito
населението и нарабошнаша
сила во
Република
Македонија
The available data did determine the time horizon and the possibility
to compare the regional situation and changes. The municipalities are ob¬
served according to the administrative-territorial partition of the Republic of
Macedonia done in
1965,
consisting of thirty municipalities, the City of
Skopje included as one municipality.
From the research of the demographic aging process several relevant
statements, conclusions and proposals emerged.
>
The Republic of Macedonia is attacked by the demographic aging
process. This process is identified by four single indicators: the mean age,
the age ratio, the coefficient of population aging and the coefficient of vita¬
lity. More segmented demographic aging classification (with seven stages) is
applied, which is a combination of five indicators. Based on this classifica¬
tion, the population in all the census years (between
1921
and
1994),
with a
minor deviations, is in the third stage
-
the demographic maturity, and in
1994
in the fourth stage
-
the demographic old-age threshold.
>
The analysis of the population in the towns and in the villages has
shown that, according to the score of the indicators in
1961
and
1971,
it is in
the same stage
-
the demographic maturity. In
1994,
the urban and rural
population is transcending into higher stage
-
the demographic old-age
threshold, but according to one indicator
-
the share of the persons younger
than
40
in total population, the rural population remains in the stage of
demographic maturity.
>
Having in mind the intensity of the demographic aging related to
particular nationalities, of special importance are the results of the changes
related to the Macedonian and Albanian population. Based on the compari¬
son of the situations and trends in the
1953-1994
time frame, the conclusion
arose that starting from the same base
-
the demographic maturity, in
1994
the Macedonians are transcending into fifth stage
-
the demographic old-
age. The Albanians remain in the same stage
-
the demographic maturity, so
that the difference compared to the Macedonians is two stages or time dif¬
ference of more than two decades.
>
All the variants of the population projections up to
2020:
without
migrations, with constant or variable migrations, refer to the conclusion that
the population will be aging more intensively in the next two decades. Ac¬
cording to the medium variant with reduced migrations that can be treated as
really achievable, the population in the Republic of Macedonia will in
2010
218
Сшареење
на населението и на работната ама
во
Република Македошф
enter the stage of demographic old-age, and in
2020
in deep demographic
old-age. Such changes are confirmed by the reduction of the share in the to¬
tal population of persons younger than
20,
from
30,6% (2000)
to
23,5%
(2020),
and by the increase of persons older than
60 -
from
14,9%
to
21,9%,
or the coefficient of population aging would be
48,7%
and
93,2%
respec¬
tively. So, the estimate is that the situation is very unfavorable because the
total population increase would be insignificant
-
from
1.993.233
to
2.022.092
persons.
>
In the context of the aging process, except the population distri¬
bution according to the basic age groups, very significant is its disposition
by particular functional contingents. Our research has shown that as a result
of current trends, the expected changes are in negative direction. It is mani¬
fested in absolute and relative reduction of the pre-pupil and education-
obligatory contingent, the working-age population, the total fertile feminine
population and feminine population in the optimal reproductive age, and the
increase of the share of the quiet old-age contingent (over
80).
>
By analyzing the characteristics of the population aging by par¬
ticular municipalities, we diagnosed significant changes in the process of
demographic aging in the
1971-1994
period. The result of such a trends is
broadening of regional differences in the age structure of the population.
Most of the municipalities are in the process of aging. In
1994,
in the stage
of demographic maturity are four municipalities (Gostivar, Debar,
Struga
and Tetovo), on the demographic old-age threshold is the population in
twenty municipalities, in the demographic old-age are five municipalities
(Bérovo,
Bitola,
Kratovo,
Prilep
and
Resen),
and in a deep demographic old-
age is one municipality
-
Demir Hisar.
The differences expressed as the absolute quantities showed that the
group of municipalities with lowest demographic age comprise
357.582
per¬
sons, which is
18,5%
of the total population, those in the highest stages
-
261.318
persons or
13,5%
of total population, and that on the demographic
old-age threshold is more than two third of the population
(1.316.134
per¬
sons, or
68,0%
of the total population).
>
The intensity of changes in the urban and rural areas is different.
Of the urban population, six towns are
ín
a stage of demographic maturity,
twenty are on the demographic old-age threshold, and two towns are in the
demographic old-age. In the rural areas the population in five municipalities
is in the demographic maturity stage, eleven are on the demographic old-age
threshold, the same number of municipalities are in the demographic old-age
stage, and three municipalities are in a deep demographic old-age.
219
Стареење
на населението и
на рабошнаша сила во
Република
Македонија
■>.
Our findings confirmed the fact that as a result of population
aging, the labour force ~ the active population is also aging. The process of
its aging analyzed by the age dependency ratio of the total population, of the
young and old persons, shows significant changes in the whole observed
time frame. They are expressed in a continued tendency of reduction of age
dependency of the young persons and the increased age dependency of the
older persons. Particularly adverse are the expected changes in the next two
decades, when the total age dependency ratio of
48,7
(in
2000)
will be in¬
creased to
49,0
(in
2020).
The changes are larger in the age dependency ra¬
tios of the young persons
- 33,3
and
25,7
respectively, and the age depen¬
dency ratios of old persons
- 15,5
and
23,3
respectively.
>
The regional deviations in the values of the total age dependency
ratios are determined by the size of the
pre-
working-age and post-working-
age contingent. Based on the situation in
1994
those are highest in the muni¬
cipalities in the western part of the country that are in a stage of demograp¬
hic maturity. They are a result of very high age dependency ratios of young
persons, ranging between
48,8
and
56,6.
Of other groups of municipalities
with higher total age dependency ratios are isolated the municipalities whose
population is in the stage of demographic old-age and in deep demographic
old-age, determined by the high age dependency ratios of old persons.
>
Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics of labour force
aging, we came to the conclusion that in the
1953-1994
time frame the im¬
pressive changes occurred. Those are manifested in the trends toward the
reduction of the share of young persons (younger than
20),
from
21,6%
to
6,1%,
and younger middle age persons
(20-29)
from
30,0%
to
26,7%,
and
an increase of more mature
(30-39
and
40-49)
from
17,4%
to
29,5%
and
15,6%
to
24,1%
respectively. Those changes are indicating the process of
aging
óf
the total labour force, which is more intensive in the urban than in
the rural areas.
>
The regional deviations in the labour force age structure follow
the changes in the total population. So, in
1994,
with the youngest labour
force is differentiated the group of municipalities whose population is in the
stage of demographic maturity. There, especially present is a share of young
persons (up to 20)j thereat it is at around one third larger compared with the
municipalities whose population is on the demographic old-age threshold,
and twice as large than in the municipalities with older population. Com¬
paratively smaller are the differences in the share of active population aged
between
20
and
39,
which in the municipalities with younger population
reached around
70,0%,
in the municipalities on the demographic old-age
threshold
- 63,3%,
and in the areas with older population
- 59,0%.
220
Сшареење
на населението и на работната
сила во
Република Македошф
II
>
The results of our research are indicating the influence of diffe¬
rent demographic and socio-economic factors in the
sõven
decades of the
demographic development. In the observed period the Republic of Macedo¬
nia started with relatively
oíd
population as a result of high natality (ferti¬
lity), accompanied with high mortality, with adverse influences of the wars
that especially impinged the generations in the optimal reproductive age, as
well as the emigratory movements from the country. After the Second World
War, the census data show that a population rejuvenation happened as a re¬
sult of baby-boom generations.
>
From the dynamics of the vita! rates for the total population in the
period
1953-1994
the following general conclusions arose: continued trend
of reduction of natality rates; simultaneous, but slower reduction of morta¬
lity rates and consequently, continued reduction of the amount of crude rates
of natural population increase. This is indicating larger intensity of reduction
and its narrowing to more than one third in the last, compared to the situa¬
tion in the first observed year.
>
Such movements did implicate the unfavorable influence on the
transformation of the age structure of the population in the Republic of Ma¬
cedonia
-
the process of its aging. Four time intervals are singled out in the
observed period, which coincide with the particular phases of demographic
transition. The time frame
1953-1960
is corresponding to the
subphase
of
the central transition, when the natality rates remain higher than
30
per
mills. Since
1961
up to
1970,
even though reduction of the natality rates
continue, the population is still in the same
subphase
of the demographic
transition. In the next decade
(1971-1980)
the Republic of Macedonia is
already in the
subphase
of the late demographic transition treshold. More
emphasized trend toward the reduction of the natality rates is typical for the
eighties, when the
subphase
of late transition begins. The start of the nineties
is marked by the finish of the process of the demographic transition.
>
The significant perturbation of the streams of demographic aging
process in the nineties imposed the following question: whether such trend,
which qualified the end of the demographic transition in the Republic of Mace¬
donia, is a result of the dynamics of the socio-economic development or it is
stimulated by the influence of other factors. We reckon that those are basi¬
cally of socio-economic nature, but with opposite, adverse reaction for such
a fast demographic transformations. Those are mostly provoked by the prob¬
lems immanent to the transition from one to another socio-economic system.
221
Стареете на населението
и на рабошиаша сила во
Република
Македо/шја
>
The research showed that on the dynamization or retardation of
the demographic aging, special influence did have the intensity of changes
in vital rates of the population according to particular nationalities and its
contribution to the changes to the country as a whole. The result of the dif¬
ferentiated pace of the demographic transition within particular nationalities
during the four decades
(1953-1994)
was most pictorially confirmed by the
comparison of the situations with the Macedonian and Albanian population.
In
1994,
the Albanian population is remaining in the
subphase
of the central
transition, but for the Macedonian population the process of demographic
transition is already finished.
Such a situation is coinciding with the identified stages of demo¬
graphic age with these two populations. These populations, from the same
starting base in the first two observed years
-
demographic maturity, in
1994
are differing for two stages
-
the Albanians remained in the same stage, and
the Macedonians transcended into the demographic old-age.
>
The aging process is under significant influence of the change in
the migratory movements
-
internal and external. Its influence is particularly
manifested in the regional scale, with the changes in the spatial distribution
of the population, which is definitely adversely reflecting the whole country.
The movements from the villages into towns, and from less developed to¬
wards more developed areas, especially towards Skopje, caused significant
perturbation of the size of the reproductive base and reproductive behavior
of the population in the towns. The emigratory movements towards foreign
countries did have additional effects towards deterioration of the current
situation, especially in the traditionally emigratory areas.
>
The theoretic presuppositions and the experience of the developed
countries show that after reaching the demographic old-age threshold, the
process of demographic aging is accelerating. That was also confirmed by
our research of the expected changes in the two decades that follow. In the
future, the demographic development will be primarily determined by the
natural movement of the population. The mechanical changes will also sig¬
nificantly influence retarded or intensified demographic aging. If emigratory
movements toward foreign countries detain the intensity as in the last de¬
cade, it will further contribute to the accentuation of this process.
222
Сшареење
на населението и на работната
сила во
Република Македоища
III
The consequences and the implications of the current and future
trends of the process of demographic aging are numerous, direct and indi¬
rect, differing in time and area. Those are manifested in the changes of the
demographic development, the labour force supply, the economic develop¬
ment, especially on the system of transfers eta
>
As
а
result of the current process of demographic aging, the con¬
sequences and the implications will be reflected on all the components of the
total and structural movement of the population. Those will primarily have
an impact on the population increase rate, on the level and tendencies of na¬
tality, i.e. fertility, on the level of mortality
-
the general one and specific
one, as well as on the migratory movements and further changes in the age
and gender structure of the total population.
The findings from the research on the changes and tendencies of the
natural and migratory movements in
Ehe
Republic of Macedonia lead to the
conclusion that those movements will, with greater or lesser intensity, also
continue in the future, which will imply further process of aging of total
population, especially in particular areas.
>
The total population aging is reflected on the aging of the
working-age population and on the active population
-
labour force. The
process of demographic aging is influencing the amount of influx of younger
generations of working-age population and its structure, as well as on the
level of economic activity of the population. Having in mind unfavorable
socio-economic circumstances stressed by the problems of the transition pe¬
riod, our findings lead to the conclusion about the unfavorable influences on
the labour force aging process, not only on the economically active persons,
but on the unemployed persons too. Because Of the limited possibilities for
their activation, the unemployed will continually transcend into older age
groups. This is especially concerning the expected changes in the near fu¬
ture, and the solutions for their status in the long-term remain uncertain.
>
The implications of the demographic aging on the economic de¬
velopment are primarily observed within the labor market. The factors and
possibilities contributing to the increase of the labour force demand and the
limiting circumstances during the transition period, dynamizing the eco¬
nomic growth and development were analyzed. Those factors are contribut¬
ing to the increase of the discrepancies between the labour force supply and
demand. So, special attention was given to the aspects of the inevitabilities
of overcoming this situation in the near and in the distant future. The mflu-
223
Стареење
на населението и
на рабоиташа
cima
во
Република
Мокедонија
enee
of the labour force aging on the future technological development is
also stressed, as well as the changes in the structure of the individual and
collective consumption of the population.
>
The changes in the age structure of the population lead to sig¬
nificant changes in the area of social transfers, especially in the future.
Those aspects require profound research that are to be deeper than our re¬
search. So, the current and future changes are identified globally and en¬
compass the following transfers: rising and education of children and
younger persons, health insurance, pension insurance, the social transfers,
savings and investments.
IV
The current and especially the expected changes in the population
aging process undoubtedly stress the need of adequate policies that would
contribute to its retardation.
>
Because of the lack of adequate population policy, our estimate is
that an essential characteristic of the demographic development was and still
is a chaotic one. Relinquished to the individual decision concerning the re¬
productive behavior, it is forgotten that between the personal and the general
interests should not exist large incompatibilities. A convergence between
those two interests is needed, and the policy should establish the links be¬
tween the two requirements, which supposes making particular political de¬
cisions and applying state intervention.
>
In the provisions of a different natality (fertility) intensity and a
natural increase within the particular segments of the population, which are
largely in line with the belonging to a particular nationality, the stimulating
measures on one side and calming measures on the other side are needed.
The efforts made in defining and in building a population policy were and
remained just the declarative statements. Not only the expected results were
not obtained but, on the contrary, more intensively are stressed already
demonstrated interethnic differences.
>
The problems related to the natural movement especially have
arisen during the social and economic transition. Highly reduced employ¬
ment opportunities, the enormous unemployment, the drastic fall of standard
of living became a decisive factor in a reproductive behavior, especially of
the Macedonian population. On the contrary, the situation with other nation¬
alities did not change considerably, where the process of demographic tran¬
sition was and continue to run at a slower pace.
224
Сшареење
на населението и
на рабошнаша сила во
Република
Макеоонија
>
Our research showed that the Republic of Macedonia is in urgent
need to carry and apply a long-term and complex population policy, where
the attention will be focused on the population reproduction, the migratory
movements
-
internal and external, as well as the interaction between the
demographic, economic and social development.
>
Having in mind all the attributes as an underdeveloped region and
the influence of the socio-economic development on the natural and migra¬
tory movements of the population, which were fully expressed during the
transition period, the positive solution should be sought in dynamizing the
economic development. It will contribute to the employment increase, the
unemployment decrease, the public and personal standard of living im¬
provement, which will directly and indirectly influence the reproductive be¬
havior of the population and restrain the large emigration. In that context,
the demographic development must be one of the key elements of the deve¬
lopment strategy of the Republic of Macedonia.
>
A comprehensive, integrated and coordinated population policy
should have in mind the adult population and adult labour force as a share of
the total population and total labour force. The increase of the share of the
labour force aged over
50
will in the future impose the question of adjusting
the employment system.
The future socio-economic development of the Republic of Macedo¬
nia will inevitably imply more intensive introduction of the technological
development. In that sense it will be necessary adequate readjustment and
retraining of the adult labour force to be done, so that this labour force will
be able to accept and apply the new technologies.
>
Our research and cognition lead to the conclusion that further in¬
vestigations and research are necessary, especially of the consequences and
implications of the demographic aging in the short and long term. The fur¬
ther research should be done by the interdisciplinary projects and for some
relevant aspects by the individual projects, by which it will be possible more
detailed enlightening of the particular problem. Such a researchshould be a
solid scientific and vocational base in making the adequate policies for the
various domains, as an answers to the solution of the problems induced by
the process of aging in the Republic of Macedonia.
225 |
| adam_txt |
СОДРЖИНА
ПРЕДГОВОР
. 7
ВОВЕД
. 9
I.
СОСТШБИ, ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И КАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ
НА
СТАРЕЕЊЕТО
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
И НА РАБОТНАТА СИЛА
. .
13
А. ОБЕМ, ДИНАМИКА И КАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО СПОРЕД СТАРОСТ
-вкупно и регионално
. 14
1.
Промени на демографското сгарсаье
во
Република
Македонії
j
а
. 14
1.1.
Досегашни тенденции и
состојби
-
вкупно население
. 14
1.2.
Карактеристики на старосната структура
на градското и селското население
. 27
1.3.
Националната структура и стареенето на населението
33
1.4.
Проекции на вкуйното население
во
Република
Македонией до
2020
година
. 40
1.5.
Функционални старосно-полови контингенти
. 52
2.
Особености
на старссіьсто на
населението
но ОДДСЛШ1
општшш
. 58
2.1.
Промени
во
старосната структура
fia
вкуйното население
. 58
2.2.
Карактеристики на старосната структура
на градското и на селското население
. 70
Б. ОСОБЕНОСТИ НА СТРУКТУРАТА
НА РАБОТНАТА
СИЛА ВО
РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША
СПОРЕД СТАРОСТ-вкупно ирегионално
. 81
1.
Некой
индикатори за искористсноста
на работоспособшют контингент
. 81
1.1.
Коефициенти на старосна зависност
на вкуйното население
во
Република Макеоонща
. 81
1.2.
Коефициенти на старосна зависност
на населението йо одделнирпштини
.ν:.-.-^
.
S5
і'
*4*:*ча«3 \
!
ч*·":'!"'.
'ť-V'? í'
2.
Демографско
сгарссњс
на вкупната
работна
«їла
. 89
2.
L
Основни карактерисШики
за старееіьето
на
активното население
во
земјата
. 89
2,2.
Некой
регионални особености на старостта
структура на активното население
. 98
II.
ДЕМОГРАФСКИ И ДРУГИ ПРИЧИНИ
ЗА СТАРЕЕІЬЕТО НА
НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
ВО
РЕПУБЛИКА
МАКЕДОНИЈ
А
. 105
А. КОМПОНЕНТИТЕ НА ПРИРОДНОТО
ДВИЖЕЊЕ
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО И ПРОЦЕСОТ
НА НЕГОВО
СТАРЕЕЊЕ
.
Ю7
1.
Особености на наталитстот (фертилитстот),
морталитетот и природинот прираст на населението
во
Република
Македонија
. 108
2.
Регионални аспекти на динамиката на наталитстот,
морталитетот и природниот прираст на населението
. 114
3.
Карактсристнки на природното
дпижсіьс на
населението
во
периодот од
1989-2000
година
и претпоставки
за очекуваните промени до
2020
година
. 121
Б. ПРЕСЕЛНИЧКИТЕ
ДВИЖЕІЬА
И
СТАРЕЕЊЕТО
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
. 127
1.
Внатрснши миграции
. 128
2.
Надворсшни миграция
. 136
R
ЕКОНОМСКИ И ДРУГИ ПРИЧИНИ ЗА
СТАРЕЕЊЕТО
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
ВО
РЕПУБЛИКА
МАКЕДОНИЈА
. 146
Ш.
ИМПЛИКАЦИИ ОД
СТАРЕЕЇЬЕТО
НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО.!
.:.1. 153
A. ДЕМОГРАФСКИ ПОСЛЕДИЦИ
. 153
Б. ИМПЛИКАЦИИ ВРЗ
РАБОТНАТА
СИЛА
. 159
B.
СТАРЕЕЊЕТО
НА
НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО
ИЕКОНОМСКИОТРАЗВОЈ
. 164
1.
Ефекти
од старееіьето
врз скономскиот
развој
. 164
2.
Импликации врз систсмот на
трансфери
. 171
IV.
ЗАКЛУЧНИ СОГЛЕДБИ
. 183
ПРИЛОЗИ
. 197
SUMMARY
. 217
КОРИСТЕН
А ЛИТЕРАТУРА
. 227
ИЗД
АНИЈА
НА ЕКОНОСМКИОТ ИНСТИТУТ
-
СКОШЕ
. 235
SUMMARY
The problems related to the population and labour force aging, its
causes and consequences, have attracted the attention of the scientists in the
world, mostly from the middle of the eighties of the twentieth century, espe¬
cially in the developed countries. But, this process is today also important in
the developing countries, as well as in the former socialist, now transition
countries.
The Republic of Macedonia is also facing the process of demo¬
graphic aging. So, the research done by this work is treating the situation,
the trends and the characteristics of the population and labour force aging in
the Republic of Macedonia as a whole and regionally within the country.
The observed time frame for the whole country is between
1921
and
2020.
Depending on the available data, the changes on the regional level are ob¬
served in shorter or larger time intervals.
In determining the dynamics and the intensity of the demographic
aging process, as well as in identifying the current and future stages of the
demographic age, more relevant indications were applied. The demographic,
economic and other causes were analyzed, by treating primarily the natural
and migratory population movements. The consequences and the implica¬
tions caused by the aging processes are observed in general and are treated
by the particular aspects of its influence on the demographic development,
on the labour force and the economic development, as well as on the system
of transfers.
The aims of the research are as follows: determining the age struc¬
ture changes and the aging process of the population and the labour force;
determining the relevant causes for the demographic aging, especially the
regional differences; the appraisal of the current situation and its demo¬
graphic, economic and other consequences and implications; timely antici¬
pation of future changes and the necessity of appropriate steering of the
demographic movements.
217
Сшареење
ito
населението и нарабошнаша
сила во
Република
Македонија
The available data did determine the time horizon and the possibility
to compare the regional situation and changes. The municipalities are ob¬
served according to the administrative-territorial partition of the Republic of
Macedonia done in
1965,
consisting of thirty municipalities, the City of
Skopje included as one municipality.
From the research of the demographic aging process several relevant
statements, conclusions and proposals emerged.
>
The Republic of Macedonia is attacked by the demographic aging
process. This process is identified by four single indicators: the mean age,
the age ratio, the coefficient of population aging and the coefficient of vita¬
lity. More segmented demographic aging classification (with seven stages) is
applied, which is a combination of five indicators. Based on this classifica¬
tion, the population in all the census years (between
1921
and
1994),
with a
minor deviations, is in the third stage
-
the demographic maturity, and in
1994
in the fourth stage
-
the demographic old-age threshold.
>
The analysis of the population in the towns and in the villages has
shown that, according to the score of the indicators in
1961
and
1971,
it is in
the same stage
-
the demographic maturity. In
1994,
the urban and rural
population is transcending into higher stage
-
the demographic old-age
threshold, but according to one indicator
-
the share of the persons younger
than
40
in total population, the rural population remains in the stage of
demographic maturity.
>
Having in mind the intensity of the demographic aging related to
particular nationalities, of special importance are the results of the changes
related to the Macedonian and Albanian population. Based on the compari¬
son of the situations and trends in the
1953-1994
time frame, the conclusion
arose that starting from the same base
-
the demographic maturity, in
1994
the Macedonians are transcending into fifth stage
-
the demographic old-
age. The Albanians remain in the same stage
-
the demographic maturity, so
that the difference compared to the Macedonians is two stages or time dif¬
ference of more than two decades.
>
All the variants of the population projections up to
2020:
without
migrations, with constant or variable migrations, refer to the conclusion that
the population will be aging more intensively in the next two decades. Ac¬
cording to the medium variant with reduced migrations that can be treated as
really achievable, the population in the Republic of Macedonia will in
2010
218
Сшареење
на населението и на работната ама
во
Република Македошф
enter the stage of demographic old-age, and in
2020
in deep demographic
old-age. Such changes are confirmed by the reduction of the share in the to¬
tal population of persons younger than
20,
from
30,6% (2000)
to
23,5%
(2020),
and by the increase of persons older than
60 -
from
14,9%
to
21,9%,
or the coefficient of population aging would be
48,7%
and
93,2%
respec¬
tively. So, the estimate is that the situation is very unfavorable because the
total population increase would be insignificant
-
from
1.993.233
to
2.022.092
persons.
>
In the context of the aging process, except the population distri¬
bution according to the basic age groups, very significant is its disposition
by particular functional contingents. Our research has shown that as a result
of current trends, the expected changes are in negative direction. It is mani¬
fested in absolute and relative reduction of the pre-pupil and education-
obligatory contingent, the working-age population, the total fertile feminine
population and feminine population in the optimal reproductive age, and the
increase of the share of the quiet old-age contingent (over
80).
>
By analyzing the characteristics of the population aging by par¬
ticular municipalities, we diagnosed significant changes in the process of
demographic aging in the
1971-1994
period. The result of such a trends is
broadening of regional differences in the age structure of the population.
Most of the municipalities are in the process of aging. In
1994,
in the stage
of demographic maturity are four municipalities (Gostivar, Debar,
Struga
and Tetovo), on the demographic old-age threshold is the population in
twenty municipalities, in the demographic old-age are five municipalities
(Bérovo,
Bitola,
Kratovo,
Prilep
and
Resen),
and in a deep demographic old-
age is one municipality
-
Demir Hisar.
The differences expressed as the absolute quantities showed that the
group of municipalities with lowest demographic age comprise
357.582
per¬
sons, which is
18,5%
of the total population, those in the highest stages
-
261.318
persons or
13,5%
of total population, and that on the demographic
old-age threshold is more than two third of the population
(1.316.134
per¬
sons, or
68,0%
of the total population).
>
The intensity of changes in the urban and rural areas is different.
Of the urban population, six towns are
ín
a stage of demographic maturity,
twenty are on the demographic old-age threshold, and two towns are in the
demographic old-age. In the rural areas the population in five municipalities
is in the demographic maturity stage, eleven are on the demographic old-age
threshold, the same number of municipalities are in the demographic old-age
stage, and three municipalities are in a deep demographic old-age.
219
Стареење
на населението и
на рабошнаша сила во
Република
Македонија
■>.
Our findings confirmed the fact that as a result of population
aging, the labour force ~ the active population is also aging. The process of
its aging analyzed by the age dependency ratio of the total population, of the
young and old persons, shows significant changes in the whole observed
time frame. They are expressed in a continued tendency of reduction of age
dependency of the young persons and the increased age dependency of the
older persons. Particularly adverse are the expected changes in the next two
decades, when the total age dependency ratio of
48,7
(in
2000)
will be in¬
creased to
49,0
(in
2020).
The changes are larger in the age dependency ra¬
tios of the young persons
- 33,3
and
25,7
respectively, and the age depen¬
dency ratios of old persons
- 15,5
and
23,3
respectively.
>
The regional deviations in the values of the total age dependency
ratios are determined by the size of the
pre-
working-age and post-working-
age contingent. Based on the situation in
1994
those are highest in the muni¬
cipalities in the western part of the country that are in a stage of demograp¬
hic maturity. They are a result of very high age dependency ratios of young
persons, ranging between
48,8
and
56,6.
Of other groups of municipalities
with higher total age dependency ratios are isolated the municipalities whose
population is in the stage of demographic old-age and in deep demographic
old-age, determined by the high age dependency ratios of old persons.
>
Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics of labour force
aging, we came to the conclusion that in the
1953-1994
time frame the im¬
pressive changes occurred. Those are manifested in the trends toward the
reduction of the share of young persons (younger than
20),
from
21,6%
to
6,1%,
and younger middle age persons
(20-29)
from
30,0%
to
26,7%,
and
an increase of more mature
(30-39
and
40-49)
from
17,4%
to
29,5%
and
15,6%
to
24,1%
respectively. Those changes are indicating the process of
aging
óf
the total labour force, which is more intensive in the urban than in
the rural areas.
>
The regional deviations in the labour force age structure follow
the changes in the total population. So, in
1994,
with the youngest labour
force is differentiated the group of municipalities whose population is in the
stage of demographic maturity. There, especially present is a share of young
persons (up to 20)j thereat it is at around one third larger compared with the
municipalities whose population is on the demographic old-age threshold,
and twice as large than in the municipalities with older population. Com¬
paratively smaller are the differences in the share of active population aged
between
20
and
39,
which in the municipalities with younger population
reached around
70,0%,
in the municipalities on the demographic old-age
threshold
- 63,3%,
and in the areas with older population
- 59,0%.
220
Сшареење
на населението и на работната
сила во
Република Македошф
II
>
The results of our research are indicating the influence of diffe¬
rent demographic and socio-economic factors in the
sõven
decades of the
demographic development. In the observed period the Republic of Macedo¬
nia started with relatively
oíd
population as a result of high natality (ferti¬
lity), accompanied with high mortality, with adverse influences of the wars
that especially impinged the generations in the optimal reproductive age, as
well as the emigratory movements from the country. After the Second World
War, the census data show that a population rejuvenation happened as a re¬
sult of baby-boom generations.
>
From the dynamics of the vita! rates for the total population in the
period
1953-1994
the following general conclusions arose: continued trend
of reduction of natality rates; simultaneous, but slower reduction of morta¬
lity rates and consequently, continued reduction of the amount of crude rates
of natural population increase. This is indicating larger intensity of reduction
and its narrowing to more than one third in the last, compared to the situa¬
tion in the first observed year.
>
Such movements did implicate the unfavorable influence on the
transformation of the age structure of the population in the Republic of Ma¬
cedonia
-
the process of its aging. Four time intervals are singled out in the
observed period, which coincide with the particular phases of demographic
transition. The time frame
1953-1960
is corresponding to the
subphase
of
the central transition, when the natality rates remain higher than
30
per
mills. Since
1961
up to
1970,
even though reduction of the natality rates
continue, the population is still in the same
subphase
of the demographic
transition. In the next decade
(1971-1980)
the Republic of Macedonia is
already in the
subphase
of the late demographic transition treshold. More
emphasized trend toward the reduction of the natality rates is typical for the
eighties, when the
subphase
of late transition begins. The start of the nineties
is marked by the finish of the process of the demographic transition.
>
The significant perturbation of the streams of demographic aging
process in the nineties imposed the following question: whether such trend,
which qualified the end of the demographic transition in the Republic of Mace¬
donia, is a result of the dynamics of the socio-economic development or it is
stimulated by the influence of other factors. We reckon that those are basi¬
cally of socio-economic nature, but with opposite, adverse reaction for such
a fast demographic transformations. Those are mostly provoked by the prob¬
lems immanent to the transition from one to another socio-economic system.
221
Стареете на населението
и на рабошиаша сила во
Република
Македо/шја
>
The research showed that on the dynamization or retardation of
the demographic aging, special influence did have the intensity of changes
in vital rates of the population according to particular nationalities and its
contribution to the changes to the country as a whole. The result of the dif¬
ferentiated pace of the demographic transition within particular nationalities
during the four decades
(1953-1994)
was most pictorially confirmed by the
comparison of the situations with the Macedonian and Albanian population.
In
1994,
the Albanian population is remaining in the
subphase
of the central
transition, but for the Macedonian population the process of demographic
transition is already finished.
Such a situation is coinciding with the identified stages of demo¬
graphic age with these two populations. These populations, from the same
starting base in the first two observed years
-
demographic maturity, in
1994
are differing for two stages
-
the Albanians remained in the same stage, and
the Macedonians transcended into the demographic old-age.
>
The aging process is under significant influence of the change in
the migratory movements
-
internal and external. Its influence is particularly
manifested in the regional scale, with the changes in the spatial distribution
of the population, which is definitely adversely reflecting the whole country.
The movements from the villages into towns, and from less developed to¬
wards more developed areas, especially towards Skopje, caused significant
perturbation of the size of the reproductive base and reproductive behavior
of the population in the towns. The emigratory movements towards foreign
countries did have additional effects towards deterioration of the current
situation, especially in the traditionally emigratory areas.
>
The theoretic presuppositions and the experience of the developed
countries show that after reaching the demographic old-age threshold, the
process of demographic aging is accelerating. That was also confirmed by
our research of the expected changes in the two decades that follow. In the
future, the demographic development will be primarily determined by the
natural movement of the population. The mechanical changes will also sig¬
nificantly influence retarded or intensified demographic aging. If emigratory
movements toward foreign countries detain the intensity as in the last de¬
cade, it will further contribute to the accentuation of this process.
222
Сшареење
на населението и на работната
сила во
Република Македоища
III
The consequences and the implications of the current and future
trends of the process of demographic aging are numerous, direct and indi¬
rect, differing in time and area. Those are manifested in the changes of the
demographic development, the labour force supply, the economic develop¬
ment, especially on the system of transfers eta
>
As
а
result of the current process of demographic aging, the con¬
sequences and the implications will be reflected on all the components of the
total and structural movement of the population. Those will primarily have
an impact on the population increase rate, on the level and tendencies of na¬
tality, i.e. fertility, on the level of mortality
-
the general one and specific
one, as well as on the migratory movements and further changes in the age
and gender structure of the total population.
The findings from the research on the changes and tendencies of the
natural and migratory movements in
Ehe
Republic of Macedonia lead to the
conclusion that those movements will, with greater or lesser intensity, also
continue in the future, which will imply further process of aging of total
population, especially in particular areas.
>
The total population aging is reflected on the aging of the
working-age population and on the active population
-
labour force. The
process of demographic aging is influencing the amount of influx of younger
generations of working-age population and its structure, as well as on the
level of economic activity of the population. Having in mind unfavorable
socio-economic circumstances stressed by the problems of the transition pe¬
riod, our findings lead to the conclusion about the unfavorable influences on
the labour force aging process, not only on the economically active persons,
but on the unemployed persons too. Because Of the limited possibilities for
their activation, the unemployed will continually transcend into older age
groups. This is especially concerning the expected changes in the near fu¬
ture, and the solutions for their status in the long-term remain uncertain.
>
The implications of the demographic aging on the economic de¬
velopment are primarily observed within the labor market. The factors and
possibilities contributing to the increase of the labour force demand and the
limiting circumstances during the transition period, dynamizing the eco¬
nomic growth and development were analyzed. Those factors are contribut¬
ing to the increase of the discrepancies between the labour force supply and
demand. So, special attention was given to the aspects of the inevitabilities
of overcoming this situation in the near and in the distant future. The mflu-
223
Стареење
на населението и
на рабоиташа
cima
во
Република
Мокедонија
enee
of the labour force aging on the future technological development is
also stressed, as well as the changes in the structure of the individual and
collective consumption of the population.
>
The changes in the age structure of the population lead to sig¬
nificant changes in the area of social transfers, especially in the future.
Those aspects require profound research that are to be deeper than our re¬
search. So, the current and future changes are identified globally and en¬
compass the following transfers: rising and education of children and
younger persons, health insurance, pension insurance, the social transfers,
savings and investments.
IV
The current and especially the expected changes in the population
aging process undoubtedly stress the need of adequate policies that would
contribute to its retardation.
>
Because of the lack of adequate population policy, our estimate is
that an essential characteristic of the demographic development was and still
is a chaotic one. Relinquished to the individual decision concerning the re¬
productive behavior, it is forgotten that between the personal and the general
interests should not exist large incompatibilities. A convergence between
those two interests is needed, and the policy should establish the links be¬
tween the two requirements, which supposes making particular political de¬
cisions and applying state intervention.
>
In the provisions of a different natality (fertility) intensity and a
natural increase within the particular segments of the population, which are
largely in line with the belonging to a particular nationality, the stimulating
measures on one side and calming measures on the other side are needed.
The efforts made in defining and in building a population policy were and
remained just the declarative statements. Not only the expected results were
not obtained but, on the contrary, more intensively are stressed already
demonstrated interethnic differences.
>
The problems related to the natural movement especially have
arisen during the social and economic transition. Highly reduced employ¬
ment opportunities, the enormous unemployment, the drastic fall of standard
of living became a decisive factor in a reproductive behavior, especially of
the Macedonian population. On the contrary, the situation with other nation¬
alities did not change considerably, where the process of demographic tran¬
sition was and continue to run at a slower pace.
224
Сшареење
на населението и
на рабошнаша сила во
Република
Макеоонија
>
Our research showed that the Republic of Macedonia is in urgent
need to carry and apply a long-term and complex population policy, where
the attention will be focused on the population reproduction, the migratory
movements
-
internal and external, as well as the interaction between the
demographic, economic and social development.
>
Having in mind all the attributes as an underdeveloped region and
the influence of the socio-economic development on the natural and migra¬
tory movements of the population, which were fully expressed during the
transition period, the positive solution should be sought in dynamizing the
economic development. It will contribute to the employment increase, the
unemployment decrease, the public and personal standard of living im¬
provement, which will directly and indirectly influence the reproductive be¬
havior of the population and restrain the large emigration. In that context,
the demographic development must be one of the key elements of the deve¬
lopment strategy of the Republic of Macedonia.
>
A comprehensive, integrated and coordinated population policy
should have in mind the adult population and adult labour force as a share of
the total population and total labour force. The increase of the share of the
labour force aged over
50
will in the future impose the question of adjusting
the employment system.
The future socio-economic development of the Republic of Macedo¬
nia will inevitably imply more intensive introduction of the technological
development. In that sense it will be necessary adequate readjustment and
retraining of the adult labour force to be done, so that this labour force will
be able to accept and apply the new technologies.
>
Our research and cognition lead to the conclusion that further in¬
vestigations and research are necessary, especially of the consequences and
implications of the demographic aging in the short and long term. The fur¬
ther research should be done by the interdisciplinary projects and for some
relevant aspects by the individual projects, by which it will be possible more
detailed enlightening of the particular problem. Such a researchshould be a
solid scientific and vocational base in making the adequate policies for the
various domains, as an answers to the solution of the problems induced by
the process of aging in the Republic of Macedonia.
225 |
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| author | Dimitrieva, Elka Janeska, Verica |
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| genre | (DE-588)4056995-0 Statistik 1921-2020 gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Statistik 1921-2020 |
| geographic | Nordmazedonien (DE-588)1181214262 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Nordmazedonien |
| id | DE-604.BV022781532 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T18:36:22Z |
| indexdate | 2025-03-28T17:02:16Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9989970793 |
| language | Macedonian |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015987027 |
| oclc_num | 238449654 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | 242 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2001 |
| publishDateSearch | 2001 |
| publishDateSort | 2001 |
| publisher | Univ. "Sv. Kiril i Metodij", Ekonom. Inst. |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Dimitrieva, Elka Verfasser aut Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija Elka Dimitrieva ; Verica Janeska Skopje Univ. "Sv. Kiril i Metodij", Ekonom. Inst. 2001 242 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier PST: Population and labour force aging in the Republic of Macedonia. - In kyrill. Schr., mazedon. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache Alternde Bevölkerung (DE-588)4334479-3 gnd rswk-swf Arbeitsfähigkeit (DE-588)4142885-7 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 gnd rswk-swf Nordmazedonien (DE-588)1181214262 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4056995-0 Statistik 1921-2020 gnd-content Nordmazedonien (DE-588)1181214262 g Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 s Alternde Bevölkerung (DE-588)4334479-3 s DE-604 Arbeitsfähigkeit (DE-588)4142885-7 s Janeska, Verica Verfasser aut Digitalisierung BSBMuenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015987027&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015987027&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Dimitrieva, Elka Janeska, Verica Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija Alternde Bevölkerung (DE-588)4334479-3 gnd Arbeitsfähigkeit (DE-588)4142885-7 gnd Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4334479-3 (DE-588)4142885-7 (DE-588)4006287-9 (DE-588)1181214262 (DE-588)4056995-0 |
| title | Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija |
| title_auth | Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija |
| title_exact_search | Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija |
| title_full | Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija Elka Dimitrieva ; Verica Janeska |
| title_fullStr | Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija Elka Dimitrieva ; Verica Janeska |
| title_full_unstemmed | Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija Elka Dimitrieva ; Verica Janeska |
| title_short | Stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo Republika Makedonija |
| title_sort | stareenje na naselenieto i na rabotnata sila vo republika makedonija |
| topic | Alternde Bevölkerung (DE-588)4334479-3 gnd Arbeitsfähigkeit (DE-588)4142885-7 gnd Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Alternde Bevölkerung Arbeitsfähigkeit Bevölkerung Nordmazedonien Statistik 1921-2020 |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015987027&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015987027&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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