Health and health care 2010: the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation]
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
San Francisco
Jossey-Bass
2000
|
| Edition: | 1. ed. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XX, 217 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0787953482 |
Staff View
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV022657623 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20221116 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 070829s2000 d||| |||| 10||| eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 0787953482 |9 0-7879-5348-2 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)42980220 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV022657623 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-19 | ||
| 050 | 0 | |a RA445 | |
| 082 | 0 | |a 362.1/0973 |2 21 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Health and health care 2010 |b the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] |c prep. by The Institute for the Future. [Contributors authors: Roy Amara ...] |
| 246 | 1 | 3 | |a Health & healthcare 2010 |
| 250 | |a 1. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a San Francisco |b Jossey-Bass |c 2000 | |
| 300 | |a XX, 217 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 2 | |a Delivery of Health Care |a trends | |
| 650 | 2 | |a Forecasting | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Gezondheidszorg |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Santé publique - États-Unis - Prévision | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Soins médicaux - États-Unis - Prévision | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Toekomstverwachtingen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gesundheitswesen | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Delivery of Health Care |x trends |z United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Forecasting |z United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Medical care |z United States |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Public health |z United States |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Gesundheitswesen |0 (DE-588)4020775-4 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Prognose |0 (DE-588)4047390-9 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 651 | 2 | |a United States | |
| 651 | 4 | |a USA | |
| 651 | 7 | |a USA |0 (DE-588)4078704-7 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
| 655 | 7 | |0 (DE-588)1071861417 |a Konferenzschrift |2 gnd-content | |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a USA |0 (DE-588)4078704-7 |D g |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Gesundheitswesen |0 (DE-588)4020775-4 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 2 | |a Prognose |0 (DE-588)4047390-9 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | |8 1\p |5 DE-604 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Amara, Roy |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 710 | 2 | |a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation |e Sonstige |0 (DE-588)273337-7 |4 oth | |
| 710 | 2 | |a Institute for the Future |e Sonstige |0 (DE-588)1015308-1 |4 oth | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m HBZ Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015863529&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015863529 | ||
| 883 | 1 | |8 1\p |a cgwrk |d 20201028 |q DE-101 |u https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk | |
Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804136837641404416 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE 2010
Contents
Figures ix
Tables xii
Sidebars xm
Abbreviations and Acronyms xv
Introduction xvn
Chapter 1 Health and health Care Forecast
Executive Summary 1
Legislation 1
Demographics: Patients, Populations, and New Consumers 2
Payers and Health Care Costs 4
Health Plans and Insurers 5
Hospitals and Physicians 5
Medical and Information Technologies 6
Care Processes and Medical Management 8
Public Health 8
Three Scenarios 10
Chapter 2 Demographic Trends and the Burden of Disease
Increasing Diversity 17
The United States Population Is Growing Older and Living Longer 17
The Face of America Continues to Change—Diversity Is Increasing 19
Household Income Is Increasing, but the Gap Between the Extremes
Is Widening 20
The Shifting Burden of Disease: Chronic Diseases, Mental Illness,
and Lifestyle Behaviors 22
Chapter 3 Health Care s Demand Side
Will Future Growth Rates Be like Those of the past 5 years or
THE PAST 30? 25
The Private Sector 25
The Public Sector 26
The Issues: What Drives Future Cost Increases? 27
The Forecast: Real Cost Growth at 1 Percent 29
The Significance of Our Cost Forecast for the Rest of Our 10 Year Outlook 32
Wild Cards 32
Chapter 4 Health insurance
The Three Tiered model 35
The Issues: How Will People Receive Health Insurance? 37
The Forecast: The Source of Insurance—Where Are the People? ... 40
. . . and What Type of Insurance Will They Have? 43
Tiering Will Increase 44
Wild Cards 45
Chapter 5 Health Care Providers
Themes of the Future Delivery System 47
Intermediaries 48
Reimbursement Models: Between Finance and Delivery 52
Care Delivery Organizations for the Next Decade 56
Medical Management: The New Arena of Activity 60
What Happens to Hospitals? 62
Wild Cards 70
Chapter 6 Health Care Workforce
Future Supply and Demand 73
Physicians 73
Nurses 79
Physicians Assistants 81
Future Employment 82
Wild Cards 83
Chapter 7 Medical Technologies
Effects on Care 87
Rational Drug Design 88
Advances in Imaging 90
Minimally Invasive Surgery 93
Genetic Mapping and Testing 95
Gene Therapy 98
Vaccines 101
Artificial Blood 103
Xenotransplantation 104
Wild Cards 106
Chapter 8 Information Technologies
Will Health Care Join in the Information Age? 109
Base Technologies 110
The Forecast: Four Big Effects in Health Care 113
Progression of Information Technology into Health Care 120
Wildcards 122
Chapter 9 Health Care Consumers
THE HAVES AND THE HAVE NOTS 1 23
Three Tiers of Health Care Consumers 125
Forecast and Assumptions 131
Wildcards 135
Chapter 10 Public Health Services
A Challenging Future 139
The History of Public Health in the United States 139
Key Factors Affecting Public Health in America Today 142
Technology 149
Public Health Frameworks and Strategies: Problems of Perception 150
Reconciling Public Health and Private Medicine 152
The Future: Scenarios and Forecasts 156
Forecast of the Future: Organizational Issues 157
Chapter 11 Health Behaviors
Small Steps in the right Direction 161
Alcohol and Drug Abuse in America 162
Injury Prevention: A Focus on Guns 174
Tobacco Use and Health 179
Wild Cards 183
Chapter 12 Expanded Perspective on Health
Beyond the curative Model 187
Definition of Health 189
Stress 190
Socioeconomic Status As a Determinant of Health 191
What s New? Why Now? 192
Consumer Expectations 193
Deteriorating Health Conditions 194
Global Health Perspective 195
The Future: Shifting Paradigms 197
The Paradigm Shift: Evolution or Revolution? 198
Wildcards 199
Glossary 201
Index 209
Figures
Figure 1 1 Increasing Diversity of the United States Population 3
Figure 1 2 The Real Story of Diversity Is Regional in 2010 3
Figure 1 3 A Growing Number of Adults in the United States Have Attended
College 4
Figure 1 4 Americans Move into HMOs 5
Figure 1 5 In Excess: Physician Supply and Estimated Requirement 6
Figure 2 1 America s Baby Boomers Are Aging 18
Figure 2 2 The Coming Surge in the Population of Age 65 Years and Older 18
Figure 2 3 Life Expectancy at Age 65 Has Increased Throughout the 20th Century,
United States 19
Figure 2 4 Increasing Diversity of the United States Population 19
Figure 2 5 The Real Story of Diversity Is Regional in 2010 20
Figure 2 6 California Is Ahead of the Nation 21
Figure 2 7 The Number of Households Earning High Incomes Is Increasing 21
Figure 2 8 Redistribution of Income 22
Figure 2 9 Determinants of Health 23
Figure 3 1 Total Health Care Expenditures As a Percent of GDP, 1960 1965 25
Figure 3 2 Average Annual Growth Rate of Health Care Costs by Sector 26
Figure 3 3 Spending Under the 5 Year Trend or the 30 Year Trend 27
Figure 3 4 Health Care Cost Increases Get Noticed During Recessions 28
Figure 3 5 Projection of Future Health Care Spending 29
Figure 3 6 DSH Spending Explodes in the Early 1990s 30
Figure 3 7 Medicare Gets a Worse Deal in the 1990s 31
Figure 3 8 Share of Costs Borne by Government, Employers, and Consumers 31
Figure 4 1 HMO Membership Takes Off in the 1990s 36
Figure 4 2 Type of Plan That Covered Most Employees of Companies with
100+ Workers 36
Figure 4 3 Employment based Insurance Is Falling ... 37
Figure 4 4 . . . and It s the Least Educated Who ve Borne the Brunt of the
Decline 37
Figure 4 5. The Flexible Workforce Is Growing Quickly 38
Figure 4 6 Small Business Drops Health Benefits 38
Figure 4 7 Few Small Business Employees Find Insurance at Work . . .
or Anywhere Else 39
Figure 4 8 Sources of Health Insurance for Americans Over Time 39
Figure 4 9 It s Been the IPAs That Have Grown Fastest 40
Figure 4 10 Enrollment Growth in Medicare Risk (TEFRA) HMOs 40
Figure 4 11 Future Sources of Health Insurance for Americans 42
Figure 4 12 The Future Is Much More of the Present 43
Figure 4 13 HMO Descendants Move from Mainstream to Majority 43
Figure 4 14 Tiers R Us ... and Will Be 45
Figure 5 1 Managed Competition: How It Was Supposed to Be ...
How It Really Is 49
Figure 5 2 Managed Care Takes Over from Unmanaged Care 51
Figure 5 3 The Fee for Service Brokers Will Lose Their Dominance 53
Figure 5 4 How Physicians Got Paid in 1997 54
Figure 5 5 How HMOs Pay Their Doctors and Hospitals 55
Figure 5 6 How Premium Payments Get Divided Up: The PPO World versus the
HMO World 56
Figure 5 7 Fee for Service Will Fade, but Capitation Is Not Its Only Successor 56
Figure 5 8 More Physicians and Many More Group Physicians 59
Figure 5 9 Hospital Beds Are Slowly Disappearing 63
Figure 5 10 Occupancy Has Also Fallen 63
Figure 5 11 Sicker Patients and Fewer Beds Means More Staff per Bed 64
Figure 5 12 There Are Also More Staff in Total 64
Figure 5 13 There Are More For Profits, but Not That Many More 65
Figure 5 14 Hospital Beds Will Keep Slowly Disappearing 67
Figure 5 15 Hospital Spending—Still a Big Deal, but Proportionately
Falling Slowly 69
Figure 6 1 Physicians in the Pipeline 74
Figure 6 2 In Excess: Physician Supply and Estimated Requirement 74
Figure 6 3 Median Net Income 76
Figure 6 4 Projected Supply of RNs, 1995 2020 81
Figure 8 1 More and More PC Usage by the Workforce 109
Figure 8 2 Percent of PCs Connected to Local Area Networks (LANs) 109
Figure 8 3 Technologies in the Home Take Off 110
Figure 8 4 Electronic Health Care Claims Pick Up the Pace 113
Figure 8 5 Which Clinical Functions Do Physicians Perform with Computers? 116
Figure 8 6 Technology in Households Is Mostly for the Wealthy and Educated 119
Figure 8 7 Internet and Computer Penetration of the Household Will Continue
to Increase 119
Figure 9 1 Population Age 65 and Older, 1980 to 2030 125
Figure 9 2 Benefits Insecurity 126
Figure 9 3 Description of New Consumer Attributes in 2005 127
Figure 10 1 Changes in Cause of Death, 1900 1999 141
Figure 10 2 The Three Pillars of Public Health 143
Figure 10 3 Changes in the Share of National After Tax Income Held by Various
Economic Groups in the United States, 1977 and 1997 144
Figure 10 4 Trends in Asthma Prevalence by Region and Year, 1980 1994 146
Figure 10 5 Trends in Waterborne Disease Outbreaks, 1971 1994 146
Figure 10 6 Patterns in Waterborne Disease Outbreaks, 1993 1994 147
Figure 10 7 Rates of Foodborne Disease Incidence, 1996 1998 149
Figure 11 1 Prevalence of Illicit Drug Use by Age Cohorts 164
Figure 11 2 Marijuana Is the Drug of Choice 164
Figure 11 3 Association of Alcohol and Illicit Drug Use 165
Figure 11 4 Prevalence of Lifetime Alcohol Dependency or Abuse, and Age of
Drinking Onset 165
Figure 11 5 Interaction of Drugs, Tobacco, and Alcohol 166
Figure 11 6 Trends in Perceptions of Availability and Risk of Regular Use,
Compared with 30 Day Prevalence for Twelfth Graders 166
Figure 11 7 Trends in Drug Related Emergency Room Visits, 1978 1996 167
Figure 11 8 Incarcerations in Federal and State Prisons and
Local Jails, 1985 1997 168
Figure 11 9 Drug Use and AIDS 168
Figure 11 10 Economic Costs of Alcohol and Drug Abuse 169
Figure 11 11 The Workplace Consequences of Drug and Alcohol Abuse:
Employment History and Absenteeism 170
Figure 11 12 Reported Past Year Illicit Drug or Alcohol Problem Relative
to Treatment 173
Figure 11 13 Trends in Homicide Rates by Method, 1985 1994 176
Figure 11 14 Adolescent Suicide: A Black and White
Comparison, 1980 1995 177
Figure 11 15 Few Smokers Report Getting Help to Quit Smoking 182
Tables
Table 6 1 Projected Physician Supply and Requirements for Specialists and
Generalises, 2000 2010 75
Table 6 2 Projected RN Requirements by Employment Setting, 2000—2010 80
Table 9 1 The Tiers of Coverage 13 0
Table 10 1 Stages of Relations Between Public Health and Medicine 140
Table 10 2 Ten Public Health Achievements, 1900 1999 141
Table 10 3 Factors in the Process of Privatizing Publicly Funded Public and Personal
Health Services 154
Table 11 1 Biomedical and Underlying Causes of Death in the United States
in 1990 162
Table 11 2 Support Among National Poll Respondents for Policies to
Regulate Firearms 178
Table 12 1 Paradigm Shifts 197
Sidebars
Chapter 1
Tiers of Coverage 3
Forecast Through 2005 10
What Level of Health Spending Growth Is Sustainable in the Long Run? 10
Scenario One Indicators 11
Scenario Two Indicators 13
Scenario Three Indicators 14
Chapter 3
The Economy Is the Crucial Denominator 28
Chapter 4
What s Behind Medicaid s Growth? 41
Chapter 5
Physicians in Group Practice 58
Chapter 7
Additional Technologies 88
The Pace of Change in Drug Design 89
Unnatural Natural Products 90
Drug producing Animals 90
Mini MRIs and MRNs 91
Positron Emission Tomography 92
The Ethics of Genetic Testing 96
Chapter 9
The Three Modes of Empowerment 124
The Aging Baby Boomers 125
The New Consumers: Who Are They? 127
Children: Patients and Beneficiaries, but Not Active Consumers 128
Chapter 11
The Scope of the Alcohol and Illicit Drug Abuse Problem in the United States 163
Chapter 12
Talking to the Doctor 192
Alternative, Holistic, Expanded : What s in a Name? 193
Evidence Based Studies: What the Research Shows 194
The Wild Card 196
|
| adam_txt |
HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE 2010
Contents
Figures ix
Tables xii
Sidebars xm
Abbreviations and Acronyms xv
Introduction xvn
Chapter 1 Health and health Care Forecast
Executive Summary 1
Legislation 1
Demographics: Patients, Populations, and New Consumers 2
Payers and Health Care Costs 4
Health Plans and Insurers 5
Hospitals and Physicians 5
Medical and Information Technologies 6
Care Processes and Medical Management 8
Public Health 8
Three Scenarios 10
Chapter 2 Demographic Trends and the Burden of Disease
Increasing Diversity 17
The United States Population Is Growing Older and Living Longer 17
The Face of America Continues to Change—Diversity Is Increasing 19
Household Income Is Increasing, but the Gap Between the Extremes
Is Widening 20
The Shifting Burden of Disease: Chronic Diseases, Mental Illness,
and Lifestyle Behaviors 22
Chapter 3 Health Care's Demand Side
Will Future Growth Rates Be like Those of the past 5 years or
THE PAST 30? 25
The Private Sector 25
The Public Sector 26
The Issues: What Drives Future Cost Increases? 27
The Forecast: Real Cost Growth at 1 Percent 29
The Significance of Our Cost Forecast for the Rest of Our 10 Year Outlook 32
Wild Cards 32
Chapter 4 Health insurance
The Three Tiered model 35
The Issues: How Will People Receive Health Insurance? 37
The Forecast: The Source of Insurance—Where Are the People? . 40
. . . and What Type of Insurance Will They Have? 43
Tiering Will Increase 44
Wild Cards 45
Chapter 5 Health Care Providers
Themes of the Future Delivery System 47
Intermediaries 48
Reimbursement Models: Between Finance and Delivery 52
Care Delivery Organizations for the Next Decade 56
Medical Management: The New Arena of Activity 60
What Happens to Hospitals? 62
Wild Cards 70
Chapter 6 Health Care Workforce
Future Supply and Demand 73
Physicians 73
Nurses 79
Physicians' Assistants 81
Future Employment 82
Wild Cards 83
Chapter 7 Medical Technologies
Effects on Care 87
Rational Drug Design 88
Advances in Imaging 90
Minimally Invasive Surgery 93
Genetic Mapping and Testing 95
Gene Therapy 98
Vaccines 101
Artificial Blood 103
Xenotransplantation 104
Wild Cards 106
Chapter 8 Information Technologies
Will Health Care Join in the Information Age? 109
Base Technologies 110
The Forecast: Four Big Effects in Health Care 113
Progression of Information Technology into Health Care 120
Wildcards 122
Chapter 9 Health Care Consumers
THE HAVES AND THE HAVE NOTS 1 23
Three Tiers of Health Care Consumers 125
Forecast and Assumptions 131
Wildcards 135
Chapter 10 Public Health Services
A Challenging Future 139
The History of Public Health in the United States 139
Key Factors Affecting Public Health in America Today 142
Technology 149
Public Health Frameworks and Strategies: Problems of Perception 150
Reconciling Public Health and Private Medicine 152
The Future: Scenarios and Forecasts 156
Forecast of the Future: Organizational Issues 157
Chapter 11 Health Behaviors
Small Steps in the right Direction 161
Alcohol and Drug Abuse in America 162
Injury Prevention: A Focus on Guns 174
Tobacco Use and Health 179
Wild Cards 183
Chapter 12 Expanded Perspective on Health
Beyond the curative Model 187
Definition of Health 189
Stress 190
Socioeconomic Status As a Determinant of Health 191
What's New? Why Now? 192
Consumer Expectations 193
Deteriorating Health Conditions 194
Global Health Perspective 195
The Future: Shifting Paradigms 197
The Paradigm Shift: Evolution or Revolution? 198
Wildcards 199
Glossary 201
Index 209
Figures
Figure 1 1 Increasing Diversity of the United States Population 3
Figure 1 2 The Real Story of Diversity Is Regional in 2010 3
Figure 1 3 A Growing Number of Adults in the United States Have Attended
College 4
Figure 1 4 Americans Move into HMOs 5
Figure 1 5 In Excess: Physician Supply and Estimated Requirement 6
Figure 2 1 America's Baby Boomers Are Aging 18
Figure 2 2 The Coming Surge in the Population of Age 65 Years and Older 18
Figure 2 3 Life Expectancy at Age 65 Has Increased Throughout the 20th Century,
United States 19
Figure 2 4 Increasing Diversity of the United States Population 19
Figure 2 5 The Real Story of Diversity Is Regional in 2010 20
Figure 2 6 California Is Ahead of the Nation 21
Figure 2 7 The Number of Households Earning High Incomes Is Increasing 21
Figure 2 8 Redistribution of Income 22
Figure 2 9 Determinants of Health 23
Figure 3 1 Total Health Care Expenditures As a Percent of GDP, 1960 1965 25
Figure 3 2 Average Annual Growth Rate of Health Care Costs by Sector 26
Figure 3 3 Spending Under the 5 Year Trend or the 30 Year Trend 27
Figure 3 4 Health Care Cost Increases Get Noticed During Recessions 28
Figure 3 5 Projection of Future Health Care Spending 29
Figure 3 6 DSH Spending Explodes in the Early 1990s 30
Figure 3 7 Medicare Gets a Worse Deal in the 1990s 31
Figure 3 8 Share of Costs Borne by Government, Employers, and Consumers 31
Figure 4 1 HMO Membership Takes Off in the 1990s 36
Figure 4 2 Type of Plan That Covered Most Employees of Companies with
100+ Workers 36
Figure 4 3 Employment based Insurance Is Falling . 37
Figure 4 4 . . . and It's the Least Educated Who've Borne the Brunt of the
Decline 37
Figure 4 5. The Flexible Workforce Is Growing Quickly 38
Figure 4 6 Small Business Drops Health Benefits 38
Figure 4 7 Few Small Business Employees Find Insurance at Work . . .
or Anywhere Else 39
Figure 4 8 Sources of Health Insurance for Americans Over Time 39
Figure 4 9 It's Been the IPAs That Have Grown Fastest 40
Figure 4 10 Enrollment Growth in Medicare Risk (TEFRA) HMOs 40
Figure 4 11 Future Sources of Health Insurance for Americans 42
Figure 4 12 The Future Is Much More of the Present 43
Figure 4 13 HMO Descendants Move from Mainstream to Majority 43
Figure 4 14 Tiers 'R Us . and Will Be 45
Figure 5 1 Managed Competition: How It Was Supposed to Be .
How It Really Is 49
Figure 5 2 Managed Care Takes Over from "Unmanaged Care" 51
Figure 5 3 The "Fee for Service Brokers" Will Lose Their Dominance 53
Figure 5 4 How Physicians Got Paid in 1997 54
Figure 5 5 How HMOs Pay Their Doctors and Hospitals 55
Figure 5 6 How Premium Payments Get Divided Up: The PPO World versus the
HMO World 56
Figure 5 7 Fee for Service Will Fade, but Capitation Is Not Its Only Successor 56
Figure 5 8 More Physicians and Many More Group Physicians 59
Figure 5 9 Hospital Beds Are Slowly Disappearing 63
Figure 5 10 Occupancy Has Also Fallen 63
Figure 5 11 Sicker Patients and Fewer Beds Means More Staff per Bed 64
Figure 5 12 There Are Also More Staff in Total 64
Figure 5 13 There Are More For Profits, but Not That Many More 65
Figure 5 14 Hospital Beds Will Keep Slowly Disappearing 67
Figure 5 15 Hospital Spending—Still a Big Deal, but Proportionately
Falling Slowly 69
Figure 6 1 Physicians in the Pipeline 74
Figure 6 2 In Excess: Physician Supply and Estimated Requirement 74
Figure 6 3 Median Net Income 76
Figure 6 4 Projected Supply of RNs, 1995 2020 81
Figure 8 1 More and More PC Usage by the Workforce 109
Figure 8 2 Percent of PCs Connected to Local Area Networks (LANs) 109
Figure 8 3 Technologies in the Home Take Off 110
Figure 8 4 Electronic Health Care Claims Pick Up the Pace 113
Figure 8 5 Which Clinical Functions Do Physicians Perform with Computers? 116
Figure 8 6 Technology in Households Is Mostly for the Wealthy and Educated 119
Figure 8 7 Internet and Computer Penetration of the Household Will Continue
to Increase 119
Figure 9 1 Population Age 65 and Older, 1980 to 2030 125
Figure 9 2 Benefits Insecurity 126
Figure 9 3 Description of New Consumer Attributes in 2005 127
Figure 10 1 Changes in Cause of Death, 1900 1999 141
Figure 10 2 The Three Pillars of Public Health 143
Figure 10 3 Changes in the Share of National After Tax Income Held by Various
Economic Groups in the United States, 1977 and 1997 144
Figure 10 4 Trends in Asthma Prevalence by Region and Year, 1980 1994 146
Figure 10 5 Trends in Waterborne Disease Outbreaks, 1971 1994 146
Figure 10 6 Patterns in Waterborne Disease Outbreaks, 1993 1994 147
Figure 10 7 Rates of Foodborne Disease Incidence, 1996 1998 149
Figure 11 1 Prevalence of Illicit Drug Use by Age Cohorts 164
Figure 11 2 Marijuana Is the Drug of Choice 164
Figure 11 3 Association of Alcohol and Illicit Drug Use 165
Figure 11 4 Prevalence of Lifetime Alcohol Dependency or Abuse, and Age of
Drinking Onset 165
Figure 11 5 Interaction of Drugs, Tobacco, and Alcohol 166
Figure 11 6 Trends in Perceptions of Availability and Risk of Regular Use,
Compared with 30 Day Prevalence for Twelfth Graders 166
Figure 11 7 Trends in Drug Related Emergency Room Visits, 1978 1996 167
Figure 11 8 Incarcerations in Federal and State Prisons and
Local Jails, 1985 1997 168
Figure 11 9 Drug Use and AIDS 168
Figure 11 10 Economic Costs of Alcohol and Drug Abuse 169
Figure 11 11 The Workplace Consequences of Drug and Alcohol Abuse:
Employment History and Absenteeism 170
Figure 11 12 Reported Past Year Illicit Drug or Alcohol Problem Relative
to Treatment 173
Figure 11 13 Trends in Homicide Rates by Method, 1985 1994 176
Figure 11 14 Adolescent Suicide: A Black and White
Comparison, 1980 1995 177
Figure 11 15 Few Smokers Report Getting Help to Quit Smoking 182
Tables
Table 6 1 Projected Physician Supply and Requirements for Specialists and
Generalises, 2000 2010 75
Table 6 2 Projected RN Requirements by Employment Setting, 2000—2010 80
Table 9 1 The Tiers of Coverage 13 0
Table 10 1 Stages of Relations Between Public Health and Medicine 140
Table 10 2 Ten Public Health Achievements, 1900 1999 141
Table 10 3 Factors in the Process of Privatizing Publicly Funded Public and Personal
Health Services 154
Table 11 1 Biomedical and Underlying Causes of Death in the United States
in 1990 162
Table 11 2 Support Among National Poll Respondents for Policies to
Regulate Firearms 178
Table 12 1 Paradigm Shifts 197
Sidebars
Chapter 1
Tiers of Coverage 3
Forecast Through 2005 10
What Level of Health Spending Growth Is Sustainable in the Long Run? 10
Scenario One Indicators 11
Scenario Two Indicators 13
Scenario Three Indicators 14
Chapter 3
The Economy Is the Crucial Denominator 28
Chapter 4
What's Behind Medicaid's Growth? 41
Chapter 5
Physicians in Group Practice 58
Chapter 7
Additional Technologies 88
The Pace of Change in Drug Design 89
Unnatural Natural Products 90
Drug producing Animals 90
Mini MRIs and MRNs 91
Positron Emission Tomography 92
The Ethics of Genetic Testing 96
Chapter 9
The Three Modes of Empowerment 124
The Aging Baby Boomers 125
The New Consumers: Who Are They? 127
Children: Patients and Beneficiaries, but Not Active Consumers 128
Chapter 11
The Scope of the Alcohol and Illicit Drug Abuse Problem in the United States 163
Chapter 12
Talking to the Doctor 192
"Alternative," "Holistic," "Expanded": What's in a Name? 193
Evidence Based Studies: What the Research Shows 194
The Wild Card 196 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV022657623 |
| callnumber-first | R - Medicine |
| callnumber-label | RA445 |
| callnumber-raw | RA445 |
| callnumber-search | RA445 |
| callnumber-sort | RA 3445 |
| callnumber-subject | RA - Public Medicine |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)42980220 (DE-599)BVBBV022657623 |
| dewey-full | 362.1/0973 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 362 - Social problems and services to groups |
| dewey-raw | 362.1/0973 |
| dewey-search | 362.1/0973 |
| dewey-sort | 3362.1 3973 |
| dewey-tens | 360 - Social problems and services; associations |
| discipline | Soziologie |
| discipline_str_mv | Soziologie |
| edition | 1. ed. |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02481nam a2200601 c 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV022657623</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20221116 </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">070829s2000 d||| |||| 10||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">0787953482</subfield><subfield code="9">0-7879-5348-2</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)42980220</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV022657623</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">RA445</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">362.1/0973</subfield><subfield code="2">21</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Health and health care 2010</subfield><subfield code="b">the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation]</subfield><subfield code="c">prep. by The Institute for the Future. [Contributors authors: Roy Amara ...]</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="246" ind1="1" ind2="3"><subfield code="a">Health & healthcare 2010</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="250" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1. ed.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">San Francisco</subfield><subfield code="b">Jossey-Bass</subfield><subfield code="c">2000</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">XX, 217 S.</subfield><subfield code="b">graph. Darst.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="2"><subfield code="a">Delivery of Health Care</subfield><subfield code="a">trends</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="2"><subfield code="a">Forecasting</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Gezondheidszorg</subfield><subfield code="2">gtt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Santé publique - États-Unis - Prévision</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Soins médicaux - États-Unis - Prévision</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Toekomstverwachtingen</subfield><subfield code="2">gtt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Gesundheitswesen</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Delivery of Health Care</subfield><subfield code="x">trends</subfield><subfield code="z">United States</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Forecasting</subfield><subfield code="z">United States</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Medical care</subfield><subfield code="z">United States</subfield><subfield code="x">Forecasting</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Public health</subfield><subfield code="z">United States</subfield><subfield code="x">Forecasting</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Gesundheitswesen</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4020775-4</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Prognose</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4047390-9</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="651" ind1=" " ind2="2"><subfield code="a">United States</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="651" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">USA</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="651" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">USA</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4078704-7</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="655" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="0">(DE-588)1071861417</subfield><subfield code="a">Konferenzschrift</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd-content</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">USA</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4078704-7</subfield><subfield code="D">g</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Gesundheitswesen</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4020775-4</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="2"><subfield code="a">Prognose</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4047390-9</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="8">1\p</subfield><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Amara, Roy</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="710" ind1="2" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Robert Wood Johnson Foundation</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)273337-7</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="710" ind1="2" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Institute for the Future</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)1015308-1</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">HBZ Datenaustausch</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015863529&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015863529</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="883" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="8">1\p</subfield><subfield code="a">cgwrk</subfield><subfield code="d">20201028</subfield><subfield code="q">DE-101</subfield><subfield code="u">https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| genre | (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Konferenzschrift |
| geographic | United States USA USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | United States USA |
| id | DE-604.BV022657623 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T18:24:01Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:02:45Z |
| institution | BVB |
| institution_GND | (DE-588)273337-7 (DE-588)1015308-1 |
| isbn | 0787953482 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015863529 |
| oclc_num | 42980220 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| owner_facet | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | XX, 217 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2000 |
| publishDateSearch | 2000 |
| publishDateSort | 2000 |
| publisher | Jossey-Bass |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Health and health care 2010 the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] prep. by The Institute for the Future. [Contributors authors: Roy Amara ...] Health & healthcare 2010 1. ed. San Francisco Jossey-Bass 2000 XX, 217 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Delivery of Health Care trends Forecasting Gezondheidszorg gtt Santé publique - États-Unis - Prévision Soins médicaux - États-Unis - Prévision Toekomstverwachtingen gtt Gesundheitswesen Delivery of Health Care trends United States Forecasting United States Medical care United States Forecasting Public health United States Forecasting Gesundheitswesen (DE-588)4020775-4 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf United States USA USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift gnd-content USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Gesundheitswesen (DE-588)4020775-4 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s 1\p DE-604 Amara, Roy Sonstige oth Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Sonstige (DE-588)273337-7 oth Institute for the Future Sonstige (DE-588)1015308-1 oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015863529&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Health and health care 2010 the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] Delivery of Health Care trends Forecasting Gezondheidszorg gtt Santé publique - États-Unis - Prévision Soins médicaux - États-Unis - Prévision Toekomstverwachtingen gtt Gesundheitswesen Delivery of Health Care trends United States Forecasting United States Medical care United States Forecasting Public health United States Forecasting Gesundheitswesen (DE-588)4020775-4 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4020775-4 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4078704-7 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Health and health care 2010 the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] |
| title_alt | Health & healthcare 2010 |
| title_auth | Health and health care 2010 the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] |
| title_exact_search | Health and health care 2010 the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Health and health care 2010 the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] |
| title_full | Health and health care 2010 the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] prep. by The Institute for the Future. [Contributors authors: Roy Amara ...] |
| title_fullStr | Health and health care 2010 the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] prep. by The Institute for the Future. [Contributors authors: Roy Amara ...] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Health and health care 2010 the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] prep. by The Institute for the Future. [Contributors authors: Roy Amara ...] |
| title_short | Health and health care 2010 |
| title_sort | health and health care 2010 the forecast the challenge support for this publication and conference was provided by the robert wood johnson foundation |
| title_sub | the forecast, the challenge ; [support for this publication and conference was provided by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] |
| topic | Delivery of Health Care trends Forecasting Gezondheidszorg gtt Santé publique - États-Unis - Prévision Soins médicaux - États-Unis - Prévision Toekomstverwachtingen gtt Gesundheitswesen Delivery of Health Care trends United States Forecasting United States Medical care United States Forecasting Public health United States Forecasting Gesundheitswesen (DE-588)4020775-4 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Delivery of Health Care trends Forecasting Gezondheidszorg Santé publique - États-Unis - Prévision Soins médicaux - États-Unis - Prévision Toekomstverwachtingen Gesundheitswesen Delivery of Health Care trends United States Forecasting United States Medical care United States Forecasting Public health United States Forecasting Prognose United States USA Konferenzschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015863529&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT amararoy healthandhealthcare2010theforecastthechallengesupportforthispublicationandconferencewasprovidedbytherobertwoodjohnsonfoundation AT robertwoodjohnsonfoundation healthandhealthcare2010theforecastthechallengesupportforthispublicationandconferencewasprovidedbytherobertwoodjohnsonfoundation AT instituteforthefuture healthandhealthcare2010theforecastthechallengesupportforthispublicationandconferencewasprovidedbytherobertwoodjohnsonfoundation AT amararoy healthhealthcare2010 AT robertwoodjohnsonfoundation healthhealthcare2010 AT instituteforthefuture healthhealthcare2010 |