Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation: theory and experiments
Extends research on model-based exploratory analysis for strategic planning with massive scenario generation (MSG), a technique that combines virtues of human-intensive and model-intensive exploration of "the possibility space." Metrics are identified for measuring the virtues of a particu...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Santa Monica, Calif.
RAND
2007
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Summary: | Extends research on model-based exploratory analysis for strategic planning with massive scenario generation (MSG), a technique that combines virtues of human-intensive and model-intensive exploration of "the possibility space." Metrics are identified for measuring the virtues of a particular approach to MSG, and two experiments using MSG are described, one starting with a reasonable but untested analytical model, the other starting without a model but with a list of distinguishing conditions. |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references |
| Physical Description: | XVII, 58 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation |b theory and experiments |c Paul K. Davis ; Steven C. Bankes ; Michael Egner |
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a Extends research on model-based exploratory analysis for strategic planning with massive scenario generation (MSG), a technique that combines virtues of human-intensive and model-intensive exploration of "the possibility space." Metrics are identified for measuring the virtues of a particular approach to MSG, and two experiments using MSG are described, one starting with a reasonable but untested analytical model, the other starting without a model but with a list of distinguishing conditions. | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a TECHNOLOGY / General |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a TECHNOLOGY / Military Science |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Command of troops | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Decision making |x Methodology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Military planning |x Decision making | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bankes, Steven C. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Egner, Michael |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface
Figures
Tables
Summary
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
1.
Objectives
Divergent Thinking in Strategic Planning
The General Challenge
The General Technical Challenge
Scenario-Based Methods and Human Games
Alternatives to Scenarios in Divergent Planning Exercises
Exploratory Analysis in Search of Flexible, Adaptive, and Robust Strategies
Exploratory Modeling
MSG for Strategic Planning: The Next Step?
2.
An Overall Process for Exploiting MSG
A Model to Create Scenarios
A Scenario Generator
Tools for Studying the Ensemble of Scenarios and for Recognizing Patterns
Approaches to Model-Building for MSG
Model Types
Causal Models
Noncausal Models
How Much Is Enough in MSG?
Methods for Making Sense of Complexity
Four Methods
Linear Sensitivity Analysis
Using Aggregation Fragments
vi
Using Advanced Filters
Motivated Metamodeling
Dual-Track Experimentation
Where Is the alue in MSG?
3.
of Islamist Extremism
A Model of Terrorism
Making Sense of the Data from MSG
Initial Results
Linear Sensitivity Analysis
Using Aggregation Fragments
Filters
Metamodeling
Conclusions
4.
The Starting Point: Constructing an Initial Model
New Methods for Dealing with Profound Uncertainty in the Models
Textual Stories and Visualizations from the MSG Experiment
Lessons Learned from the NNU Experiment
5.
Tools for Scenario Generation and Exploration
Graphics and Visualization
Analysis
References
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Preface
Figures
Tables
Summary
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
1.
Objectives
Divergent Thinking in Strategic Planning
The General Challenge
The General Technical Challenge
Scenario-Based Methods and Human Games
Alternatives to Scenarios in Divergent Planning Exercises
Exploratory Analysis in Search of Flexible, Adaptive, and Robust Strategies
Exploratory Modeling
MSG for Strategic Planning: The Next Step?
2.
An Overall Process for Exploiting MSG
A Model to Create Scenarios
A Scenario Generator
Tools for Studying the Ensemble of Scenarios and for Recognizing Patterns
Approaches to Model-Building for MSG
Model Types
Causal Models
Noncausal Models
How Much Is Enough in MSG?
Methods for Making Sense of Complexity
Four Methods
Linear Sensitivity Analysis
Using Aggregation Fragments
vi
Using Advanced Filters
Motivated Metamodeling
Dual-Track Experimentation
Where Is the \alue in MSG?
3.
of Islamist Extremism
A Model of Terrorism
Making Sense of the Data from MSG
Initial Results
Linear Sensitivity Analysis
Using Aggregation Fragments
Filters
Metamodeling
Conclusions
4.
The Starting Point: Constructing an Initial Model
New Methods for Dealing with Profound Uncertainty in the Models
Textual Stories and Visualizations from the MSG Experiment
Lessons Learned from the NNU Experiment
5.
Tools for Scenario Generation and Exploration
Graphics and Visualization
Analysis
References |
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| institution | BVB |
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| spelling | Davis, Paul K. Verfasser aut Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments Paul K. Davis ; Steven C. Bankes ; Michael Egner Santa Monica, Calif. RAND 2007 XVII, 58 S. Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references Extends research on model-based exploratory analysis for strategic planning with massive scenario generation (MSG), a technique that combines virtues of human-intensive and model-intensive exploration of "the possibility space." Metrics are identified for measuring the virtues of a particular approach to MSG, and two experiments using MSG are described, one starting with a reasonable but untested analytical model, the other starting without a model but with a list of distinguishing conditions. POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General bisacsh TECHNOLOGY / General bisacsh TECHNOLOGY / Military Science bisacsh Command of troops Decision making Methodology Military planning Decision making Bankes, Steven C. Verfasser aut Egner, Michael Verfasser aut Digitalisierung BSBMuenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015659095&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Davis, Paul K. Bankes, Steven C. Egner, Michael Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General bisacsh TECHNOLOGY / General bisacsh TECHNOLOGY / Military Science bisacsh Command of troops Decision making Methodology Military planning Decision making |
| title | Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments |
| title_auth | Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments |
| title_exact_search | Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments |
| title_full | Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments Paul K. Davis ; Steven C. Bankes ; Michael Egner |
| title_fullStr | Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments Paul K. Davis ; Steven C. Bankes ; Michael Egner |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments Paul K. Davis ; Steven C. Bankes ; Michael Egner |
| title_short | Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation |
| title_sort | enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation theory and experiments |
| title_sub | theory and experiments |
| topic | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General bisacsh TECHNOLOGY / General bisacsh TECHNOLOGY / Military Science bisacsh Command of troops Decision making Methodology Military planning Decision making |
| topic_facet | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General TECHNOLOGY / General TECHNOLOGY / Military Science Command of troops Decision making Methodology Military planning Decision making |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015659095&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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