Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking:
This report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Two approaches are described, one using portfolio-style thinking and analysis, the other a no...
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Santa Monica, CA
Rand
2007
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Summary: | This report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Two approaches are described, one using portfolio-style thinking and analysis, the other a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses inclusion of humans in dealing with uncertainty. Some investment priorities are also recommended. |
| Physical Description: | XIX, 77 S. |
| ISBN: | 0833040391 9780833040398 |
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MARC
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| 520 | 3 | |a This report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Two approaches are described, one using portfolio-style thinking and analysis, the other a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses inclusion of humans in dealing with uncertainty. Some investment priorities are also recommended. | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / International Security |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Command of troops | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Decision making |x Methodology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Military planning |x Decision making | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface
Figures
Tables
Summary
Acknowledgments
Acronyms
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
Objectives
EfFects-Based Operations and the Commander
Outline of This Report
CHAPTER TWO
Uncertainty, Risk, and Choice
Initial Comments
Uncertainty
Risk
Defense Planning
Operations Planning
Choice
Putting It Together: What Decision Support Is Needed?
CHAPTER THREE
Reconciling Different Approaches to Decisionmaking
Background
Working with Both Rational-Analytic and Naturalistic Styles
Techniques for Creative Critical Review
v¡
How Much Uncertainty Analysis Is- Enough?
A Simple Framework
Weighting the Factors
Assessing Confidence Level
CHAPTER FOUR
A Framework for High-Level Decision Support
Serious Options, Not Stereotypes
Portfolio-Management Tools
General Requirements
Treatment of Risk Within a Portfolio-Management Decision-Support System
Places to Reflect Risk in a Portfolio-Management Decision-Support System
Lowest-Level Explanations
The Mathematics and Logic of Aggregation
Cost-Benefit Information and Chunky Marginal Analysis
Exploratory Analysis
CHAPTER FIVE
Examples of New Tools
Portfolio Analysis for a Commander
Introduction
Zooming into Underlying Systems Analysis
Marginal Analysis
An Application of Foresight Methodology to Commanders Decision Planning
Introduction to Foresight
What Is the Foresight Approach?
Scenarios for Foresight
Using Foresight Methods in the Command Post: An Illustrative Case
CHAPTER SIX
Priorities for Investment in Families of Models, Games, and Other Tools
Introduction
Families of Tools
The Concept of a Family
Making Better Use of People in Connection with Modeling and Simulation,
Analysis, and Decision-Support Systems
Building Low-Resolution Models for Exploratory Analysis
Improving Model Adaptiveness: Agents and Other Methods
General Approaches
Agent-Based Models
Contents
CHAPTER SEVEN
Conclusions
Appendix: Issues and Controversies Regarding
and the Commander s Predictive Environment
Bibliography
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Preface
Figures
Tables
Summary
Acknowledgments
Acronyms
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
Objectives
EfFects-Based Operations and the Commander
Outline of This Report
CHAPTER TWO
Uncertainty, Risk, and Choice
Initial Comments
Uncertainty
Risk
Defense Planning
Operations Planning
Choice
Putting It Together: What Decision Support Is Needed?
CHAPTER THREE
Reconciling Different Approaches to Decisionmaking
Background
Working with Both Rational-Analytic and Naturalistic Styles
Techniques for Creative Critical Review
v¡
How Much Uncertainty Analysis Is- Enough?
A Simple Framework
Weighting the Factors
Assessing Confidence Level
CHAPTER FOUR
A Framework for High-Level Decision Support
"Serious" Options, Not Stereotypes
Portfolio-Management Tools
General Requirements
Treatment of Risk Within a Portfolio-Management Decision-Support System
Places to Reflect Risk in a Portfolio-Management Decision-Support System
Lowest-Level Explanations
The Mathematics and Logic of Aggregation
Cost-Benefit Information and Chunky Marginal Analysis
Exploratory Analysis
CHAPTER FIVE
Examples of New Tools
Portfolio Analysis for a Commander
Introduction
"Zooming" into Underlying Systems Analysis
Marginal Analysis
An Application of Foresight Methodology to Commanders' Decision Planning
Introduction to Foresight
What Is the Foresight Approach?
Scenarios for Foresight
Using Foresight Methods in the Command Post: An Illustrative Case
CHAPTER SIX
Priorities for Investment in Families of Models, Games, and Other Tools
Introduction
Families of Tools
The Concept of a Family
Making Better Use of People in Connection with Modeling and Simulation,
Analysis, and Decision-Support Systems
Building Low-Resolution Models for Exploratory Analysis
Improving Model Adaptiveness: Agents and Other Methods
General Approaches
Agent-Based Models
Contents
CHAPTER SEVEN
Conclusions
Appendix: Issues and Controversies Regarding
and the Commander's Predictive Environment
Bibliography |
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| discipline | Militärwissenschaft |
| discipline_str_mv | Militärwissenschaft |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T17:18:04Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:56:46Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0833040391 9780833040398 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XIX, 77 S. |
| publishDate | 2007 |
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| spelling | Davis, Paul K. Verfasser aut Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking Paul K. Davis ; James P. Kahan Santa Monica, CA Rand 2007 XIX, 77 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier This report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Two approaches are described, one using portfolio-style thinking and analysis, the other a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses inclusion of humans in dealing with uncertainty. Some investment priorities are also recommended. POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / International Security bisacsh Command of troops Decision making Methodology Military planning Decision making Kahan, James P. Verfasser aut Digitalisierung BSBMuenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015608788&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Davis, Paul K. Kahan, James P. Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / International Security bisacsh Command of troops Decision making Methodology Military planning Decision making |
| title | Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking |
| title_auth | Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking |
| title_exact_search | Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking |
| title_full | Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking Paul K. Davis ; James P. Kahan |
| title_fullStr | Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking Paul K. Davis ; James P. Kahan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking Paul K. Davis ; James P. Kahan |
| title_short | Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking |
| title_sort | theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking |
| topic | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / International Security bisacsh Command of troops Decision making Methodology Military planning Decision making |
| topic_facet | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / International Security Command of troops Decision making Methodology Military planning Decision making |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015608788&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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