Successful decision-making: a systematic approach to complex problems
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Berlin [u.a.]
Springer
2005
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | BTU01 FHM01 FHR01 UBG01 UBT01 UBY01 UEI03 UPA01 Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource |
| ISBN: | 9783540275039 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/3-540-27503-7 |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804136430340931584 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Brief contents
Preface v
Brief contents vii
Contents ix
List of figures xiii
List of insets xix
Introduction 1
Part One: Decision problems and decision making procedures 5
1 Decision problems 7
2 Goal and problem finding systems as requirements for
the discovery of decision problems 17
3 Rational decisions 29
4 Decision making procedures 41
Part Two: A general heuristic decision making procedure 61
5 Overview of the decision making procedure 63
6 Discovering and analysing the decision problem 81
7 Developing and evaluating options 99
8 Establishing the overall consequences of the options and
making the final decision 123
9 A case study illustrating the application of the procedure 157
Part Three: Special issues and approaches to resolving them 181
10 Information procurement decisions 183
11 Collective decisions 197
Final remarks 219
Index 221
Bibliography 227
Contents
Preface v
Brief contents vii
Contents ix
List of figures xiii
List of insets xix
Introduction 1
Part One: Decision problems and decision making procedures 5
1 Decision problems 7
1.1 The decision problem 7
1.2 Ways of solving decision problems 7
1.3 Types of decision problem 11
2 Goal and problem finding systems as requirements for
the discovery of decision problems 17
2.1 The functions of goal and problem finding
systems in the discovery of decision problems 17
2.2 Goal systems 18
2.2.1 Goal systems as combinations of single
goals 18
2.2.2 Approaches to classifying goal systems 19
2.3 Problem finding systems 22
3 Rational decisions 29
3.1 The sequence of events in decision making
procedures as a framework for rational decisions 29
3.2 The requirements of a rational decision process 35
3.3 Support for rational decision making from
management science 39
4. Decision making procedures 41
4.1 Important terms in decision making 41
4.2 Decision making procedure defined 44
4.3 The different types of decision making procedures 45
4.3.1 The parameters of decision making
procedures and their values 45
4.3.2 Four types of decision making procedures 46
_x Contents 4.3.3 A comparison of heuristic and analytic
decision making procedures 48
4.3.4 Examples of the different types of
decision making procedures 51
Part Two: A general heuristic decision making procedure 61
5 Overview of the decision making procedure 63
5.1 The value of a general heuristic decision making
procedure 63
5.2 The proposed sequence of tasks 64
5.3 A brief explanation of the tasks 67
5.4 The basis of the general heuristic decision making
procedure 75
6 Discovering and analysing the decision problem 81
6.1 Discovering the decision problem 81
6.2 Analysing the decision problem 85
6.2.1 General considerations for problem
analysis and naming 85
6.2.2 Establishing the decision situation 87
6.2.3 Determining the causes of the problem 91
6.2.4 Naming the decision problem or the sub
problems 94
6.2.5 Determining the problem structure 96
7 Developing and evaluating options 99
7.1 Developing options 99
7.1.1 General considerations for developing
options 99
7.1.2 Techniques for the development of options 103
7.2 Defining the decision criteria 105
7.3 Examining how to determine the consequences
and if necessary drawing up possible scenarios 109
7.4 The configuration of the decision problem as
result of steps 3, 4 and 5 116
7.5 Determining the consequences of the options 118
8 Establishing the overall consequences of the options and
making the final decision 123
8.1 General considerations 123
8.2 Overview of the decision maxims and their
applicability 127
Contents xi
8.3 Decision maxims for overcoming polyvalence 131
8.3.1 Utility value maxim 131
8.3.2 The maxim of the quasi univalent decision 137
8.4 Decision maxims for overcoming risk 138
8.4.1 Expectation value maxim 138
8.4.2 Utility expectation value 139
8.4.3 Problems with the application of the
decision maxims for overcoming risk 146
8.5 Decision maxims for overcoming uncertainty 146
8.6 Using decision maxims in combination to
overcome polyvalence and risk or polyvalence and
uncertainty 150
8.7 Evaluation of the decision maxims 154
9 A case study illustrating the application of the procedure 157
9.1 The situation 157
9.2 Discovering and analysing the problem 159
9.2.1 Discovering the problem 159
9.2.2 Analysing the problem 160
9.2.3 Summary of analysis and naming the
problem 167
9.3 Developing and evaluating options 169
9.3.1 Developing options 169
9.3.2 Evaluating options 173
9.4 Making the decision 176
Part Three: Special issues and approaches to resolving them 181
10 Information procurement decisions 183
10.1 Information procurement as a decision at the
meta level 183
10.2 Recommendations for decisions on information
procurement 184
11 Collective decisions 197
11.1 Collective decisions and their growing importance
in companies 197
11.2 Group goal systems and group decision behaviour 199
11.2.1 Group goal systems 199
11.2.2 Group decision behaviour 200
11.3 Rules for making collective decisions 205
xii Contents 11.3.1 Differing individual orders of preference as
starting point 205
11.3.2 Requirements for forming a collective
order of preference 206
11.3.3 Classic rules for the formation of a
collective order of preference or for
determining the option preferred by the
collective 209
11.3.4 More complex procedures for the
formation of the collective order of
preference 211
Final remarks 219
Index 221
Bibliography 227
List of figures
Figure 1.1: The different types of decision research and
their dependencies 9
Figure 1.2: The parameters of decision problems and
associated values 12
Figure 1.3: Types of decision problem and connections
between them 13
Figure 2.1: Example of a goal system 21
Figure 2.2: Parfitt and Collins four indicators for a
product group 24
Figure 2.3: Bigler s strategic cause indicators for the
monitoring of its university teaching materials 26
Figure 2.4: The advantages and disadvantages of the
different types of problem finding systems
and problem indicators 27
Figure 3.1: Years of use and financial effects of the three
options 32
Figure 3.2: The net present value calculations for options
B and C 33
Figure 3.3: Descriptive model of the decision process 36
Figure 4.1: Product range options for a producer of plant
pots 42
Figure 4.2: Central terms in decision methodology and
relationships between them 44
Figure 4.3: The parameters of decision making
procedures and associated values 47
Figure 4.4: Four types of decision making procedures 47
Figure 4.5: Comparison of heuristic and analytic decision
making procedures 49
Figure 4.6: The three requirements for using an analytic
procedure 51
Figure 4.7: Development of a corporate strategy 53
Figure 4.8: General Electrics and McKinsey portfolio for
the Baer Group 54
Figure 4.9: Data for determining optimal sales and
production programmes 55
Figure 4.10: Graphic procedure for optimal sales and
production programmes 56
xiv List of figures
Figure 4.11: Harris and Wilson s saw tooth model of stock
movements 57
Figure 4.12: Costs dependent on order quantity and
minimum costs in the Harris Wilson model 58
Figure 5.1: Advantages and limitations of a general
heuristic decision making procedure 65
Figure 5.2: The general heuristic decision making
procedure in the basic form 66
Figure 5.3: The general heuristic decision making
procedure when solving parallel or
consecutive sub problems 68
Figure 5.4: Backward moving analysis 71
Figure 5.5: Solution space, solution options and optimal
solution 73
Figure 5.6: The six decision types 74
Figure 5.7: The basis of the general heuristic decision
making procedure 76
Figure 6.1: Discovering the decision problem in the
general heuristic decision making procedure 82
Figure 6.2: Problem discovery on the basis of a goal
indicator 84
Figure 6.3: Analysing the decision problem in the general
heuristic decision making procedure 86
Figure 6.4: Sub steps in Step 2 87
Figure 6.5: Grid for recording the chronology of events 88
Figure 6.6: Customer segment sub market matrix for
the toothpaste market 89
Figure 6.7: The development of a threat problem 90
Figure 6.8: The Du Pont scheme as an example of a
deductive tree 93
Figure 6.9: Deductive tree for the analysis of the problem
of high staff turnover in a research
department 94
Figure 6.10: Basic forms of problem naming 97
Figure 6.11: Situation of problem structuring 98
Figure 7.1: Developing at least two options in the general
heuristic decision making procedure 100
Figure 7.2: Effects of boundary conditions on the solution
space 102
List of figures xv
Figure 7.3: Morphological analysis and the development
of options 105
Figure 7.4: Typical killer phrases 105
Figure 7.5: Defining the decision criteria in the general
heuristic decision making procedure 106
Figure 7.6: Temporal sequence showing the decision
making process, the decision, the
implementation and the consequences 109
Figure 7.7: Examining how to determine the
consequences and if necessary drawing up
possible scenarios in the general heuristic
decision making procedure 110
Figure 7.8: Sub steps in Step 5 111
Figure 7.9: Good, average and poor winter and summer 115
Figure 7.10: Example of an empty decision matrix 117
Figure 7.11: The six decision types 119
Figure 7.12: Determining the consequences of the options
in the general heuristic decision making
procedure 120
Figure 8.1: Establishing the overall consequences of the
options and making the final decision in the
general heuristic decision making procedure 124
Figure 8.2: Example of a completed decision matrix 125
Figure 8.3: Example of a completed decision matrix for a
certain univalent decision 126
Figure 8.4: The different decision maxims and their
applications 128
Figure 8.5: Example of a natural order in a polyvalent
certain decision problem 130
Figure 8.6: Example of a natural order in a polyvalent
uncertain decision problem 131
Figure 8.7: Example of the transformation of quantitative
negative consequences into utility values 133
Figure 8.8: Example of the transformation of qualitative
positive consequences into utility values 134
Figure 8.9: Example of the transformation of
consequences with positive and negative
values into utility values 135
Figure 8.10: Example of the utility value maxim: starting
point 136
xvi List of figures Figure 8.11: Example of the utility value maxim:
calculation 136
Figure 8.12: Example of expectation values 139
Figure 8.13: Example of the utility expectation value
maxim: starting point 140
Figure 8.14: Example of the utility expectation value
maxim: possible curve for the transformation
of consequence values into utility values 141
Figure 8.15: Example of the utility expectation value
maxim: calculation of the utility expectation
values 141
Figure 8.16: The consequence values of the decision
problem as starting point of the game 143
Figure 8.17: Two different representations of the same
decision problem 145
Figure 8.18: Starting point for the illustration of use of the
maxims for overcoming uncertainty 149
Figure 8.19: Application of the minimax risk maxim 150
Figure 8.20: Decision matrix as starting point 151
Figure 8.21: Decision matrix after overcoming uncertainty 152
Figure 8.22: Decision matrix after overcoming polyvalence 153
Figure 8.23: Example of a decision situation in which the
minimax maxim should not be applied 154
Figure 8.24: Evaluation of different decision maxims 155
Figure 9.1: Organigram at Special Vehicles 158
Figure 9.2: Cost carrier analysis 163
Figure 9.3: Backward moving analysis 168
Figure 9.4: Contribution margin I for the four cost carriers
of the chassis company for the year 2004 170
Figure 9.5: The five options 173
Figure 9.6: The financial effects of the five options 175
Figure 9.7: The effects of the five options on market
position 177
Figure 9.8: The completed consequence matrix 178
Figure 10.1: Decision matrix for a product launch problem 186
Figure 10.2: Decision tree with information gaps 188
Figure 10.3: Calculation of the probabilities for studies
advising in favour and against product
launches 189
List of figures xvii
Figure 10.4: Calculation of the probabilities of successful
and unsuccessful product launches based on
positive and negative studies 190
Figure 10.5: Complete decision tree 191
Figure 10.6: Procedure for making a decision about
information procurement 193
Figure 11.1: Parameters of collective decisions and
associated values 198
Figure 11.2: Goal system for an actor composed of several
people 200
Figure 11.3: Tendency towards poorer decisions by a
group compared to an individual 201
Figure 11.4: Configurations of two groups of three people
ranking three options 208
Figure 11.5: The configuration underlying Condorcet s
voting paradox 211
Figure 11.6: Individual orders of preference 212
Figure 11.7: The preference patterns of the group 213
Figure 11.8: The sums of the preference intensities of the
24 possible collective orders of preference 214
Figure 11.9: Example of a four level hierarchy 216
Figure 11.10: The Saaty scale 217
List of insets
Inset 1.1: Descriptive decision theory, prescriptive decision
theory and decision logic 8
Inset 2.1: The operational cause indicators of Parfitt and
Collins 23
Inset 2.2: The strategic cause indicators of a publishing
company 25
Inset 4.1: Well structured problems as a prerequisite for the
use of analytic decision making procedures 49
Inset 5.1: Important heuristic principles and their application
in the proposed general heuristic decision making
procedure 77
Inset 7.1: Determining environmental scenarios as a basis for
evaluating chair and ski lift projects 113
Inset 8.1: Natural orders 129
Inset 8.2: Transforming consequence values into utility
values 132
Inset 8.3: Determining utility values by means of a game 142
Inset 8.4: Distorted recording of the attitude to risk through
framing effects 144
Inset 8.5: Determining the overall consequences in a
polyvalent and uncertain decision problem 150
Inset 10.1: Bayes s approach for establishing the value of
additional information 184
Inset 11.1: Asch s experiment on group members pursuit of
conformity 202
Inset 11.2: The independence of irrelevant options as a
requirement for forming a collective order of
preference 207
Inset 11.3: Condorcet s voting paradox 210
Inset 11.4: Blin and Whinston s preference patterns 212
Inset 11.5: Saaty s analytical hierarchical process 215
|
| adam_txt |
Brief contents
Preface v
Brief contents vii
Contents ix
List of figures xiii
List of insets xix
Introduction 1
Part One: Decision problems and decision making procedures 5
1 Decision problems 7
2 Goal and problem finding systems as requirements for
the discovery of decision problems 17
3 Rational decisions 29
4 Decision making procedures 41
Part Two: A general heuristic decision making procedure 61
5 Overview of the decision making procedure 63
6 Discovering and analysing the decision problem 81
7 Developing and evaluating options 99
8 Establishing the overall consequences of the options and
making the final decision 123
9 A case study illustrating the application of the procedure 157
Part Three: Special issues and approaches to resolving them 181
10 Information procurement decisions 183
11 Collective decisions 197
Final remarks 219
Index 221
Bibliography 227
Contents
Preface v
Brief contents vii
Contents ix
List of figures xiii
List of insets xix
Introduction 1
Part One: Decision problems and decision making procedures 5
1 Decision problems 7
1.1 The decision problem 7
1.2 Ways of solving decision problems 7
1.3 Types of decision problem 11
2 Goal and problem finding systems as requirements for
the discovery of decision problems 17
2.1 The functions of goal and problem finding
systems in the discovery of decision problems 17
2.2 Goal systems 18
2.2.1 Goal systems as combinations of single
goals 18
2.2.2 Approaches to classifying goal systems 19
2.3 Problem finding systems 22
3 Rational decisions 29
3.1 The sequence of events in decision making
procedures as a framework for rational decisions 29
3.2 The requirements of a rational decision process 35
3.3 Support for rational decision making from
management science 39
4. Decision making procedures 41
4.1 Important terms in decision making 41
4.2 Decision making procedure defined 44
4.3 The different types of decision making procedures 45
4.3.1 The parameters of decision making
procedures and their values 45
4.3.2 Four types of decision making procedures 46
_x Contents 4.3.3 A comparison of heuristic and analytic
decision making procedures 48
4.3.4 Examples of the different types of
decision making procedures 51
Part Two: A general heuristic decision making procedure 61
5 Overview of the decision making procedure 63
5.1 The value of a general heuristic decision making
procedure 63
5.2 The proposed sequence of tasks 64
5.3 A brief explanation of the tasks 67
5.4 The basis of the general heuristic decision making
procedure 75
6 Discovering and analysing the decision problem 81
6.1 Discovering the decision problem 81
6.2 Analysing the decision problem 85
6.2.1 General considerations for problem
analysis and naming 85
6.2.2 Establishing the decision situation 87
6.2.3 Determining the causes of the problem 91
6.2.4 Naming the decision problem or the sub
problems 94
6.2.5 Determining the problem structure 96
7 Developing and evaluating options 99
7.1 Developing options 99
7.1.1 General considerations for developing
options 99
7.1.2 Techniques for the development of options 103
7.2 Defining the decision criteria 105
7.3 Examining how to determine the consequences
and if necessary drawing up possible scenarios 109
7.4 The configuration of the decision problem as
result of steps 3, 4 and 5 116
7.5 Determining the consequences of the options 118
8 Establishing the overall consequences of the options and
making the final decision 123
8.1 General considerations 123
8.2 Overview of the decision maxims and their
applicability 127
Contents xi
8.3 Decision maxims for overcoming polyvalence 131
8.3.1 Utility value maxim 131
8.3.2 The maxim of the quasi univalent decision 137
8.4 Decision maxims for overcoming risk 138
8.4.1 Expectation value maxim 138
8.4.2 Utility expectation value 139
8.4.3 Problems with the application of the
decision maxims for overcoming risk 146
8.5 Decision maxims for overcoming uncertainty 146
8.6 Using decision maxims in combination to
overcome polyvalence and risk or polyvalence and
uncertainty 150
8.7 Evaluation of the decision maxims 154
9 A case study illustrating the application of the procedure 157
9.1 The situation 157
9.2 Discovering and analysing the problem 159
9.2.1 Discovering the problem 159
9.2.2 Analysing the problem 160
9.2.3 Summary of analysis and naming the
problem 167
9.3 Developing and evaluating options 169
9.3.1 Developing options 169
9.3.2 Evaluating options 173
9.4 Making the decision 176
Part Three: Special issues and approaches to resolving them 181
10 Information procurement decisions 183
10.1 Information procurement as a decision at the
meta level 183
10.2 Recommendations for decisions on information
procurement 184
11 Collective decisions 197
11.1 Collective decisions and their growing importance
in companies 197
11.2 Group goal systems and group decision behaviour 199
11.2.1 Group goal systems 199
11.2.2 Group decision behaviour 200
11.3 Rules for making collective decisions 205
xii Contents 11.3.1 Differing individual orders of preference as
starting point 205
11.3.2 Requirements for forming a collective
order of preference 206
11.3.3 Classic rules for the formation of a
collective order of preference or for
determining the option preferred by the
collective 209
11.3.4 More complex procedures for the
formation of the collective order of
preference 211
Final remarks 219
Index 221
Bibliography 227
List of figures
Figure 1.1: The different types of decision research and
their dependencies 9
Figure 1.2: The parameters of decision problems and
associated values 12
Figure 1.3: Types of decision problem and connections
between them 13
Figure 2.1: Example of a goal system 21
Figure 2.2: Parfitt and Collins' four indicators for a
product group 24
Figure 2.3: Bigler's strategic cause indicators for the
monitoring of its university teaching materials 26
Figure 2.4: The advantages and disadvantages of the
different types of problem finding systems
and problem indicators 27
Figure 3.1: Years of use and financial effects of the three
options 32
Figure 3.2: The net present value calculations for options
B and C 33
Figure 3.3: Descriptive model of the decision process 36
Figure 4.1: Product range options for a producer of plant
pots 42
Figure 4.2: Central terms in decision methodology and
relationships between them 44
Figure 4.3: The parameters of decision making
procedures and associated values 47
Figure 4.4: Four types of decision making procedures 47
Figure 4.5: Comparison of heuristic and analytic decision
making procedures 49
Figure 4.6: The three requirements for using an analytic
procedure 51
Figure 4.7: Development of a corporate strategy 53
Figure 4.8: General Electrics and McKinsey portfolio for
the Baer Group 54
Figure 4.9: Data for determining optimal sales and
production programmes 55
Figure 4.10: Graphic procedure for optimal sales and
production programmes 56
xiv List of figures
Figure 4.11: Harris and Wilson's saw tooth model of stock
movements 57
Figure 4.12: Costs dependent on order quantity and
minimum costs in the Harris Wilson model 58
Figure 5.1: Advantages and limitations of a general
heuristic decision making procedure 65
Figure 5.2: The general heuristic decision making
procedure in the basic form 66
Figure 5.3: The general heuristic decision making
procedure when solving parallel or
consecutive sub problems 68
Figure 5.4: Backward moving analysis 71
Figure 5.5: Solution space, solution options and optimal
solution 73
Figure 5.6: The six decision types 74
Figure 5.7: The basis of the general heuristic decision
making procedure 76
Figure 6.1: Discovering the decision problem in the
general heuristic decision making procedure 82
Figure 6.2: Problem discovery on the basis of a goal
indicator 84
Figure 6.3: Analysing the decision problem in the general
heuristic decision making procedure 86
Figure 6.4: Sub steps in Step 2 87
Figure 6.5: Grid for recording the chronology of events 88
Figure 6.6: Customer segment sub market matrix for
the toothpaste market 89
Figure 6.7: The development of a threat problem 90
Figure 6.8: The Du Pont scheme as an example of a
deductive tree 93
Figure 6.9: Deductive tree for the analysis of the problem
of high staff turnover in a research
department 94
Figure 6.10: Basic forms of problem naming 97
Figure 6.11: Situation of problem structuring 98
Figure 7.1: Developing at least two options in the general
heuristic decision making procedure 100
Figure 7.2: Effects of boundary conditions on the solution
space 102
List of figures xv
Figure 7.3: Morphological analysis and the development
of options 105
Figure 7.4: Typical killer phrases 105
Figure 7.5: Defining the decision criteria in the general
heuristic decision making procedure 106
Figure 7.6: Temporal sequence showing the decision
making process, the decision, the
implementation and the consequences 109
Figure 7.7: Examining how to determine the
consequences and if necessary drawing up
possible scenarios in the general heuristic
decision making procedure 110
Figure 7.8: Sub steps in Step 5 111
Figure 7.9: Good, average and poor winter and summer 115
Figure 7.10: Example of an empty decision matrix 117
Figure 7.11: The six decision types 119
Figure 7.12: Determining the consequences of the options
in the general heuristic decision making
procedure 120
Figure 8.1: Establishing the overall consequences of the
options and making the final decision in the
general heuristic decision making procedure 124
Figure 8.2: Example of a completed decision matrix 125
Figure 8.3: Example of a completed decision matrix for a
certain univalent decision 126
Figure 8.4: The different decision maxims and their
applications 128
Figure 8.5: Example of a natural order in a polyvalent
certain decision problem 130
Figure 8.6: Example of a natural order in a polyvalent
uncertain decision problem 131
Figure 8.7: Example of the transformation of quantitative
negative consequences into utility values 133
Figure 8.8: Example of the transformation of qualitative
positive consequences into utility values 134
Figure 8.9: Example of the transformation of
consequences with positive and negative
values into utility values 135
Figure 8.10: Example of the utility value maxim: starting
point 136
xvi List of figures Figure 8.11: Example of the utility value maxim:
calculation 136
Figure 8.12: Example of expectation values 139
Figure 8.13: Example of the utility expectation value
maxim: starting point 140
Figure 8.14: Example of the utility expectation value
maxim: possible curve for the transformation
of consequence values into utility values 141
Figure 8.15: Example of the utility expectation value
maxim: calculation of the utility expectation
values 141
Figure 8.16: The consequence values of the decision
problem as starting point of the game 143
Figure 8.17: Two different representations of the same
decision problem 145
Figure 8.18: Starting point for the illustration of use of the
maxims for overcoming uncertainty 149
Figure 8.19: Application of the minimax risk maxim 150
Figure 8.20: Decision matrix as starting point 151
Figure 8.21: Decision matrix after overcoming uncertainty 152
Figure 8.22: Decision matrix after overcoming polyvalence 153
Figure 8.23: Example of a decision situation in which the
minimax maxim should not be applied 154
Figure 8.24: Evaluation of different decision maxims 155
Figure 9.1: Organigram at Special Vehicles 158
Figure 9.2: Cost carrier analysis 163
Figure 9.3: Backward moving analysis 168
Figure 9.4: Contribution margin I for the four cost carriers
of the chassis company for the year 2004 170
Figure 9.5: The five options 173
Figure 9.6: The financial effects of the five options 175
Figure 9.7: The effects of the five options on market
position 177
Figure 9.8: The completed consequence matrix 178
Figure 10.1: Decision matrix for a product launch problem 186
Figure 10.2: Decision tree with information gaps 188
Figure 10.3: Calculation of the probabilities for studies
advising in favour and against product
launches 189
List of figures xvii
Figure 10.4: Calculation of the probabilities of successful
and unsuccessful product launches based on
positive and negative studies 190
Figure 10.5: Complete decision tree 191
Figure 10.6: Procedure for making a decision about
information procurement 193
Figure 11.1: Parameters of collective decisions and
associated values 198
Figure 11.2: Goal system for an actor composed of several
people 200
Figure 11.3: Tendency towards poorer decisions by a
group compared to an individual 201
Figure 11.4: Configurations of two groups of three people
ranking three options 208
Figure 11.5: The configuration underlying Condorcet's
voting paradox 211
Figure 11.6: Individual orders of preference 212
Figure 11.7: The preference patterns of the group 213
Figure 11.8: The sums of the preference intensities of the
24 possible collective orders of preference 214
Figure 11.9: Example of a four level hierarchy 216
Figure 11.10: The Saaty scale 217
List of insets
Inset 1.1: Descriptive decision theory, prescriptive decision
theory and decision logic 8
Inset 2.1: The operational cause indicators of Parfitt and
Collins 23
Inset 2.2: The strategic cause indicators of a publishing
company 25
Inset 4.1: Well structured problems as a prerequisite for the
use of analytic decision making procedures 49
Inset 5.1: Important heuristic principles and their application
in the proposed general heuristic decision making
procedure 77
Inset 7.1: Determining environmental scenarios as a basis for
evaluating chair and ski lift projects 113
Inset 8.1: Natural orders 129
Inset 8.2: Transforming consequence values into utility
values 132
Inset 8.3: Determining utility values by means of a game 142
Inset 8.4: Distorted recording of the attitude to risk through
framing effects 144
Inset 8.5: Determining the overall consequences in a
polyvalent and uncertain decision problem 150
Inset 10.1: Bayes's approach for establishing the value of
additional information 184
Inset 11.1: Asch's experiment on group members' pursuit of
conformity 202
Inset 11.2: The independence of irrelevant options as a
requirement for forming a collective order of
preference 207
Inset 11.3: Condorcet's voting paradox 210
Inset 11.4: Blin and Whinston's preference patterns 212
Inset 11.5: Saaty's analytical hierarchical process 215 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Grünig, Rudolf 1954- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)120447541 |
| author_facet | Grünig, Rudolf 1954- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Grünig, Rudolf 1954- |
| author_variant | r g rg |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV022375861 |
| classification_rvk | QP 327 |
| classification_tum | WIR 543f |
| collection | ZDB-2-SBE |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)315807882 (DE-599)BVBBV022375861 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/3-540-27503-7 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| id | DE-604.BV022375861 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T17:09:13Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:56:16Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783540275039 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015584937 |
| oclc_num | 315807882 |
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| publishDate | 2005 |
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| publisher | Springer |
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| spelling | Grünig, Rudolf 1954- Verfasser (DE-588)120447541 aut Entscheidungsverfahren für komplexe Probleme Successful decision-making a systematic approach to complex problems Rudolf Grünig ; Richard Kühn Successful decision making Berlin [u.a.] Springer 2005 1 Online-Ressource txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Heuristik (DE-588)4024772-7 gnd rswk-swf Problemlösen (DE-588)4076358-4 gnd rswk-swf Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 gnd rswk-swf Komplexität (DE-588)4135369-9 gnd rswk-swf Führungsentscheidung (DE-588)4390843-3 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 s DE-604 Führungsentscheidung (DE-588)4390843-3 s Komplexität (DE-588)4135369-9 s Management (DE-588)4037278-9 s Problemlösen (DE-588)4076358-4 s Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Heuristik (DE-588)4024772-7 s 1\p DE-604 b DE-604 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 3-540-24307-0 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-3-540-24307-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27503-7 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015584937&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Grünig, Rudolf 1954- Successful decision-making a systematic approach to complex problems Heuristik (DE-588)4024772-7 gnd Problemlösen (DE-588)4076358-4 gnd Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 gnd Komplexität (DE-588)4135369-9 gnd Führungsentscheidung (DE-588)4390843-3 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4024772-7 (DE-588)4076358-4 (DE-588)4037278-9 (DE-588)4014904-3 (DE-588)4135369-9 (DE-588)4390843-3 (DE-588)4113446-1 |
| title | Successful decision-making a systematic approach to complex problems |
| title_alt | Entscheidungsverfahren für komplexe Probleme Successful decision making |
| title_auth | Successful decision-making a systematic approach to complex problems |
| title_exact_search | Successful decision-making a systematic approach to complex problems |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Successful decision-making a systematic approach to complex problems |
| title_full | Successful decision-making a systematic approach to complex problems Rudolf Grünig ; Richard Kühn |
| title_fullStr | Successful decision-making a systematic approach to complex problems Rudolf Grünig ; Richard Kühn |
| title_full_unstemmed | Successful decision-making a systematic approach to complex problems Rudolf Grünig ; Richard Kühn |
| title_short | Successful decision-making |
| title_sort | successful decision making a systematic approach to complex problems |
| title_sub | a systematic approach to complex problems |
| topic | Heuristik (DE-588)4024772-7 gnd Problemlösen (DE-588)4076358-4 gnd Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 gnd Komplexität (DE-588)4135369-9 gnd Führungsentscheidung (DE-588)4390843-3 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Heuristik Problemlösen Management Entscheidung Komplexität Führungsentscheidung Entscheidungsfindung |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27503-7 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015584937&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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