Hyperinflation, currency board and bust: the case of Argentina
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
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2006
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| Schriftenreihe: | Hohenheimer Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften
56 |
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| Online-Zugang: | kostenfrei kostenfrei Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Zugl.: Hohenheim, Univ., Diss., 2006 |
| Beschreibung: | 289 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 0820487082 363155608X |
| DOI: | 10.3726/b13965 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Hyperinflation, currency board and bust |b the case of Argentina |c Jutta Maute |
| 264 | 1 | |a Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] |b Lang |c 2006 | |
| 300 | |a 289 Seiten |b Diagramme | ||
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| 500 | |a Zugl.: Hohenheim, Univ., Diss., 2006 | ||
| 610 | 2 | 4 | |a Argentina. |b Caja de Conversión |
| 648 | 7 | |a Geschichte 1980-2002 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Currency boards |z Argentina | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Currency question |z Argentina | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Monetary policy |z Argentina | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Inflation |0 (DE-588)4026887-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Wechselkurs |0 (DE-588)4064921-0 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Konvertierbarkeit |0 (DE-588)4165210-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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| 651 | 4 | |a Argentinien | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1824555693591494657 |
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| adam_text |
7
Overview
CONTENTS 9
FIGURES 15
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 17
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 19
1 INTRODUCTION 21
2 ARGENTINA'S STABILISATION CHALLENGE 25
2.1 Preceding Stabilisation Attempts since the Days of Peron 25
2.2 High and Hyperinflation in Argentina in the 1980s 29
2.3 Options for Stabilisation in the beginning 1990s 75
3 STABILISATION VIA CURRENCY BOARD 83
3.1 The Currency Board Idea 83
3.2 The Specifics and Functioning of a Currency Board 104
4 THE ARGENTINE CURRENCY BOARD ARRANGEMENT 145
4.1 Features and Implementation of the Argentine CBA 145
4.2 The Stabilisation Track during the 1990s 151
5 WHAT WENT WRONG? 199
5.1 The Main Suspects 199
5.2 Taking Stock 244
5.3 Missed Opportunities? 249
6 CONCLUSION 259
BIBLIOGRAPHY 267
STATISTICAL APPENDIX 279
9
Contents
FIGURES 15
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 17
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 19
1 INTRODUCTION 21
2 ARGENTINA'S STABILISATION CHALLENGE 25
2.1 Preceding Stabilisation Attempts since the Days of Peron 25
2.2 High and Hyperinflation in Argentina in the 1980s 29
2.2.1 Rising Money Stock 31
2.2.2 Government Finance 33
2.2.2.1 Inflationary Bias of Governments 35
2.2.2.2 Debt Structure 37
2.2.2.3 Are Budget Deficits a Cause or a Consequence of Inflation? 39
2.2.2.4 Erosion of Tax System 40
2.2.2.5 Lack of Structured Budgeting Process 42
2.2.2.6 Inflation Tax 43
2.2.3 Monetary Regime 45
2.2.3.1 Monetary Constitution 45
2.2.3.2 Monetary Policy 47
2.2.4 Inflation Expectations 48
2.2.5 Symptoms of High Inflation 49
2.2.5.1 Decreasing Demand for Real Money Stock 49
2.2.5.2 Currency Substitution 50
2.2.5.3 Undervaluation as a Consequence of Currency Substitution 52
2.2.5.4 Acceleration and Variability of Inflation 54
2.2.5.5 Real Price and Wage Variability 55
2.2.5.6 Distortion and Excess Variability of Relative Prices 57
2.2.5.7 Contracting Strategies 60
2.2.5.8 Disappearance of Markets 63
2.2.5.9 Economic Performance 65
2.2.5.10 External Trade ¦ 69
2.2.5.11 Distributional Effects of High Inflation 71
10
2.2.6 From High to Hyperinflation 73
2.3 Options for Stabilisation in the beginning 1990s 75
2.3.1 Political Feasibility of Reforms 75
2.3.2 Shape of Reforms Ending Hyperinflation 76
2.3.2.1 Monetary and Fiscal Reform 77
2.3.2.2 External Anchor: Fixing the Exchange Rate 78
2.3.3 Argentina's Choice 80
3 STABILISATION VIA CURRENCY BOARD 83
3.1 The Currency Board Idea 83
3.11 The Term 83
3.1.2 The Concept 84
3.1.3 Currency Board vs. Other Fixed Exchange Rate Arrangements 86
3.1.4 Currency Board vs. Central Bank 88
3.1.5 Excursus: Doctrinal History and the Currency Board Idea 92
3.1.5.1 Doctrinal Positions: Mercantilist vs. Classical Views 93
3.1.5.2 The Bullionist and Banking Currency Controversies 96
The Early 191" Century Bullionist Controversy 96
The 1840s Banking Currency Controversy 97
Findings with Hindsight 98
3.1.5.3 The Currency Board and Classical Monetary Theory 99
3.1.5.4 From Colonial to Present Day Currency Boards 100
Rationale of Colonial Currency Boards 100
Currency Boards Since 1849 102
3.2 The Specifics and Functioning of a Currency Board 104
3.2.1 Constitutional Elements of a Currency Board 104
3.2.1.1 Anchor Currency 104
3.2.1.2 Fixed Exchange Rate 106
3.2.1.3 Full Convertibility 108
3.2.1.4 Conduct of Monetary Policy 109
Control of Private Money Creation 111
Clearing and Day to Day Monetary Operations 113
Lender of Last Resort Function 113
3.2.1.5 Conduct of Fiscal Policy 115
3.2.1.6 Institutional Preconditions 118
3.2.2 Strengths and Weaknesses of a Currency Board 120
3.2.2.1 Strengths of a Currency Board 120
Simplicity and Transparency 120
Credibility 120
Currency Stability 121
Interest Rate Convergence 121
Financial Intermediation 123
11
3.2.2.2 Weaknesses of a Currency Board 124
Nominal Exchange Rate Rigidity and Exchange Rate Misalignments 124
Financial Fragility in the Absence of a Lender of Last Resort 126
Loss of Other Central Bank Functions 127
Constraints on Fiscal Policy 127
3.2.3 Considerations for Adopting a Currency Board 128
3.2.3.1 When is a Currency Board an Appropriate Choice? 128
3.2.3.2 Implementation of a Currency Board 131
3.2.4 Duration and Termination of a Currency Board 133
3.2.4.1 Currency Board: Permanent or Transitional Arrangement? 133
3.2.4.2 Exit Options 135
Built in Escape Clauses 136
Depreciation 138
Appreciation 138
Switch to a Floating Exchange Rate 139
Switch in the Peg 139
3.2.5 Dual Currency Boards: An Extended Proposal for Currency Stability 140
4 THE ARGENTINE CURRENCY BOARD ARRANGEMENT 145
4.1 Features and Implementation of the Argentine CBA 145
4.1.1 The Legal Fixing 145
4.1.1.1 The Convertibility Law 145
4.1.1.2 The New Central Bank Law 146
4.1.2 Assessment of the Argentine CBA's Configuration 147
4.1.2.1 Orthodox and Non Orthodox Elements 147
4.1.2.2 The Choice of the Anchor and the Rate 148
4.1.2.3 Suboptimal Currency Area 149
4.2 The Stabilisation Track during the 1990s 151
4.2.1 The Early 1990s' Economic Reforms 151
4.2.1.1 Further Reforms Shaping the Monetary Frame 151
4.2.1.2 Brady Restructuring 152
4.2.1.3 Tax Reforms 152
4.2.1.4 Federal Fiscal Relations 153
4.2.1.5 Privatisation and Deregulation 155
4.2.1.6 Financial Sector Reform 158
4.2.1.7 Social Security Reform 159
4.2.1.8 Labour Market Reforms 161
4.2.1.9 Trade Liberalisation 162
4.2.2 The Early 1990s' Economic Performance: 1991 1994 164
4.2.2.1 Monetary and Financial Development 164
4.2.2.2 Economic Activity 166
4.2.2.3 Fiscal Development 167
12
4.2.2.4 Unemployment and Income Distribution 168
4.2.3 Coping with the Tequila Crisis: 1995 170
4.2.3.1 The Tequila Effect 170
4.2.3.2 Currency and Bank Run 172
4.2.3.3 Managing the Crisis 172
4.2.3.4 Financial Sector Reforms in the Wake of Tequila 174
4.2.3.5 Fiscal Adjustment Following Tequila 175
4.2.4 The Second Expansionary Phase after Tequila: 1996 1998 777
4.2.5 The Late 1990s' Recession: 1999 2001 179
4.2.5.1 The Asian, Russian, and Brazilian Crises 179
4.2.5.2 More Adverse External Shocks 180
4.2.5.3 Recession cum Deflation 181
4.2.5.4 Real Appreciation of the Peso 182
4.2.5.5 Fiscal Atrophy 183
4.2.5.6 Limited Financial Sector Robustness 185
4.2.5.7 Further Labour Market Reforms 187
4.2.6 The Run Up to the Collapse: 2001 188
4.2.6.1 Meddling with the CBA 188
4.2.6.2 Emission of Quasi Monies 193
4.2.6.3 Social and Political Overflow, and the End of the CBA 194
4.2.7 A Sketch of the Post Collapse 195
5 WHAT WENT WRONG? 199
5.1 The Main Suspects 199
5.1.1 Fiscal Imbalance 199
5.1.1.1 Persistent Budget Deficits 200
5.1.1.2 Total Indebtedness 202
5.12 Overvalued Exchange Rate 204
5.1.2.1 Real Appreciation before 1998 204
5.1.2.2 The Real Exchange Rate after 1998 205
5.1.3 Sudden Stop 207
5.1.3.1 Leveraged Argentina 208
5.1.3.2 Debt Sustainability 209
5.1.3.3 The Sudden Stop in the Region 210
5.1.4 Shock Exacerbation within MERCOSUR 213
5.1.4.1 1994 1998: Fixed Here, Fixed plus Sterilisation There 214
5.1.4.2 1999 2001: Fixed Here, Floating plus Sterilisation There 215
5.1.4.3 Exposed within MERCOSUR : 216
5.15 Institutional Defects 217
5.1.5.1 Insufficient Labour Market Reforms 217
5.1.5.2 Insufficient Diversification of Production 219
5.1.5.3 Banking Sector Reforms Impaired 221
13
5.1.5.4 Other Deficient Reforms 223
5.1.6 Politics 226
5.1.7 The IMF 228
5.1.7.1 The IMF and the CBA 229
5.1.7.2 Outline of the IMF's Engagement 1991 2001 230
5.1.7.3 The Role of the IMF during 1991 to 2000 232
5.1.7.4 The Role of the IMF in the Crisis 234
5.1.7.5 The Fund's Responsibilities 237
5.1.8 The Washington Consensus 240
5.1.9 The Currency Board Itself. 243
5.2 Taking Stock 244
5.2.1 Vulnerability 244
5.2.2 Triggers 247
5.3 Missed Opportunities? 249
5.3.1 Soft Exit during 1993/1994 250
5.3.2 Soft Exit during the Second Expansionary Phase 251
5.3.3 Hard Exit after the External Shocks of the Late Nineties 252
5.3.4 Exit towards Full Dollarisation until 1999 254
5.3.5 Dollarisation in the Midst of Crisis 255
6 CONCLUSION 259
Some Lessons 260
Argentina's New Challenge 264
BIBLIOGRAPHY 267
STATISTICAL APPENDIX 279
Macro Indicators 279
Financial and Banking Indicators 281
Fiscal Indicators 284
Distribution and Poverty Indicators 287
Selected Data 288
15
Figures
Figure 1: Stabilisation Programmes in Argentina 1959 1990 27
Figure 2: Inflation in Argentina 1920 1989(1) 28
Figure 3: Annual Inflation Rates 1980 199001 29
Figure 4: Base Money, Money Circulation, and Money Aggregates 1984 1990 32
Figure 5: Budget Deficits 1980 1990 35
Figure 6: Presidential Elections and Inflation 37
Figure 7: Government Financing 1980 1990 39
Figure 8: Foreign Debt 1980 1990 39
Figure 9: Budget Deficit and Inflation 1980 1990 40
Figure 10: Tax Revenue and Tax Structure 1980 1990 41
Figure 11: Fiscal Deficits, Seigniorage, and Inflation 45
Figure 12: Foreign Currency Deposits 1980 1990 51
Figure 13: Nominal Exchange Rates 1980 1990 53
Figure 14: Real Exchange Rates 1980 1990 54
Figure 15: Prices and Real Wages 1981 1990 57
Figure 16: Relative Prices 1981 1990 60
Figure 17: Nominal and Real Interest Rates 1980 1990 64
Figure 18: Inflation and GDP Growth 1980 1990 68
Figure 19: Unemployment in Argentina 1980 1990 68
Figure 20: Output Growth in Regional Comparison 1980 1990 69
Figure 21: Foreign Trade 1980 1990 70
Figure 22: Foreign Trade prices (1986=100) 70
Figure 23: Real Incomes by Population Groups, 1980=100 72
Figure 24: Balance Sheet of a Currency Board 89
Figure 25: Balance Sheet of a Central Bank 90
Figure 26: Mercantilist vs. Classical Doctrines 95
Figure 27: Capital Flows to Latin America between 1998 and 2001 (% of GDP) 210
Figure 28: The Sudden Stop in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile 212
Figure 29: IMF Financing Arrangements with Argentina 1991 2001 231
Figure 30: Argentine Real GDP Growth and its Components 279
Figure 31: Foreign Trade and Current Account Balance 279
Figure 32: Real Effective Exchange Rate and International Reserves 280
Figure 33: Unemployment Rate 280
Figure 34: Inflation and Money Growth 281
Figure 35: Deflation 281
Figure 36: Money Market and Lending Rates 282
Figure 37: Interest Rate and Risk Spreads 282
16
Figure 38: Peso Interest Rates 283
Figure 39: Bank Lending to Public and Private Sector 283
Figure 40: Peso and Dollar Bank Deposits 284
Figure 41: Public and External Debt 284
Figure 42: External Debt as a Percentage of Exports 285
Figure 43: Primary Government Balance 285
Figure 44: Overall Government Balance 286
Figure 45: Major Taxes in Argentina, as of December 2001 286
Figure 46: Gini Coefficient 287
Figure 47: People Living below the Official Poverty Line 287
Figure 48: Key Economic Data 288
Figure 49: Indicators of Economic Structure in Selected Emerging Market
Economies 289 |
| adam_txt |
7
Overview
CONTENTS 9
FIGURES 15
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 17
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 19
1 INTRODUCTION 21
2 ARGENTINA'S STABILISATION CHALLENGE 25
2.1 Preceding Stabilisation Attempts since the Days of Peron 25
2.2 High and Hyperinflation in Argentina in the 1980s 29
2.3 Options for Stabilisation in the beginning 1990s 75
3 STABILISATION VIA CURRENCY BOARD 83
3.1 The Currency Board Idea 83
3.2 The Specifics and Functioning of a Currency Board 104
4 THE ARGENTINE CURRENCY BOARD ARRANGEMENT 145
4.1 Features and Implementation of the Argentine CBA 145
4.2 The Stabilisation Track during the 1990s 151
5 WHAT WENT WRONG? 199
5.1 The Main Suspects 199
5.2 Taking Stock 244
5.3 Missed Opportunities? 249
6 CONCLUSION 259
BIBLIOGRAPHY 267
STATISTICAL APPENDIX 279
9
Contents
FIGURES 15
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 17
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 19
1 INTRODUCTION 21
2 ARGENTINA'S STABILISATION CHALLENGE 25
2.1 Preceding Stabilisation Attempts since the Days of Peron 25
2.2 High and Hyperinflation in Argentina in the 1980s 29
2.2.1 Rising Money Stock 31
2.2.2 Government Finance 33
2.2.2.1 Inflationary Bias of Governments 35
2.2.2.2 Debt Structure 37
2.2.2.3 Are Budget Deficits a Cause or a Consequence of Inflation? 39
2.2.2.4 Erosion of Tax System 40
2.2.2.5 Lack of Structured Budgeting Process 42
2.2.2.6 Inflation Tax 43
2.2.3 Monetary Regime 45
2.2.3.1 Monetary Constitution 45
2.2.3.2 Monetary Policy 47
2.2.4 Inflation Expectations 48
2.2.5 Symptoms of High Inflation 49
2.2.5.1 Decreasing Demand for Real Money Stock 49
2.2.5.2 Currency Substitution 50
2.2.5.3 Undervaluation as a Consequence of Currency Substitution 52
2.2.5.4 Acceleration and Variability of Inflation 54
2.2.5.5 Real Price and Wage Variability 55
2.2.5.6 Distortion and Excess Variability of Relative Prices 57
2.2.5.7 Contracting Strategies 60
2.2.5.8 Disappearance of Markets 63
2.2.5.9 Economic Performance 65
2.2.5.10 External Trade ¦ 69
2.2.5.11 Distributional Effects of High Inflation 71
10
2.2.6 From High to Hyperinflation 73
2.3 Options for Stabilisation in the beginning 1990s 75
2.3.1 Political Feasibility of Reforms 75
2.3.2 Shape of Reforms Ending Hyperinflation 76
2.3.2.1 Monetary and Fiscal Reform 77
2.3.2.2 External Anchor: Fixing the Exchange Rate 78
2.3.3 Argentina's Choice 80
3 STABILISATION VIA CURRENCY BOARD 83
3.1 The Currency Board Idea 83
3.11 The Term 83
3.1.2 The Concept 84
3.1.3 Currency Board vs. Other Fixed Exchange Rate Arrangements 86
3.1.4 Currency Board vs. Central Bank 88
3.1.5 Excursus: Doctrinal History and the Currency Board Idea 92
3.1.5.1 Doctrinal Positions: Mercantilist vs. Classical Views 93
3.1.5.2 The Bullionist and Banking Currency Controversies 96
The Early 191" Century Bullionist Controversy 96
The 1840s Banking Currency Controversy 97
Findings with Hindsight 98
3.1.5.3 The Currency Board and Classical Monetary Theory 99
3.1.5.4 From Colonial to Present Day Currency Boards 100
Rationale of Colonial Currency Boards 100
Currency Boards Since 1849 102
3.2 The Specifics and Functioning of a Currency Board 104
3.2.1 Constitutional Elements of a Currency Board 104
3.2.1.1 Anchor Currency 104
3.2.1.2 Fixed Exchange Rate 106
3.2.1.3 Full Convertibility 108
3.2.1.4 Conduct of Monetary Policy 109
Control of Private Money Creation 111
Clearing and Day to Day Monetary Operations 113
Lender of Last Resort Function 113
3.2.1.5 Conduct of Fiscal Policy 115
3.2.1.6 Institutional Preconditions 118
3.2.2 Strengths and Weaknesses of a Currency Board 120
3.2.2.1 Strengths of a Currency Board 120
Simplicity and Transparency 120
Credibility 120
Currency Stability 121
Interest Rate Convergence 121
Financial Intermediation 123
11
3.2.2.2 Weaknesses of a Currency Board 124
Nominal Exchange Rate Rigidity and Exchange Rate Misalignments 124
Financial Fragility in the Absence of a Lender of Last Resort 126
Loss of Other Central Bank Functions 127
Constraints on Fiscal Policy 127
3.2.3 Considerations for Adopting a Currency Board 128
3.2.3.1 When is a Currency Board an Appropriate Choice? 128
3.2.3.2 Implementation of a Currency Board 131
3.2.4 Duration and Termination of a Currency Board 133
3.2.4.1 Currency Board: Permanent or Transitional Arrangement? 133
3.2.4.2 Exit Options 135
Built in Escape Clauses 136
Depreciation 138
Appreciation 138
Switch to a Floating Exchange Rate 139
Switch in the Peg 139
3.2.5 Dual Currency Boards: An Extended Proposal for Currency Stability 140
4 THE ARGENTINE CURRENCY BOARD ARRANGEMENT 145
4.1 Features and Implementation of the Argentine CBA 145
4.1.1 The Legal Fixing 145
4.1.1.1 The Convertibility Law 145
4.1.1.2 The New Central Bank Law 146
4.1.2 Assessment of the Argentine CBA's Configuration 147
4.1.2.1 Orthodox and Non Orthodox Elements 147
4.1.2.2 The Choice of the Anchor and the Rate 148
4.1.2.3 Suboptimal Currency Area 149
4.2 The Stabilisation Track during the 1990s 151
4.2.1 The Early 1990s' Economic Reforms 151
4.2.1.1 Further Reforms Shaping the Monetary Frame 151
4.2.1.2 Brady Restructuring 152
4.2.1.3 Tax Reforms 152
4.2.1.4 Federal Fiscal Relations 153
4.2.1.5 Privatisation and Deregulation 155
4.2.1.6 Financial Sector Reform 158
4.2.1.7 Social Security Reform 159
4.2.1.8 Labour Market Reforms 161
4.2.1.9 Trade Liberalisation 162
4.2.2 The Early 1990s' Economic Performance: 1991 1994 164
4.2.2.1 Monetary and Financial Development 164
4.2.2.2 Economic Activity 166
4.2.2.3 Fiscal Development 167
12
4.2.2.4 Unemployment and Income Distribution 168
4.2.3 Coping with the Tequila Crisis: 1995 170
4.2.3.1 The Tequila Effect 170
4.2.3.2 Currency and Bank Run 172
4.2.3.3 Managing the Crisis 172
4.2.3.4 Financial Sector Reforms in the Wake of Tequila 174
4.2.3.5 Fiscal Adjustment Following Tequila 175
4.2.4 The Second Expansionary Phase after Tequila: 1996 1998 777
4.2.5 The Late 1990s' Recession: 1999 2001 179
4.2.5.1 The Asian, Russian, and Brazilian Crises 179
4.2.5.2 More Adverse External Shocks 180
4.2.5.3 Recession cum Deflation 181
4.2.5.4 Real Appreciation of the Peso 182
4.2.5.5 Fiscal Atrophy 183
4.2.5.6 Limited Financial Sector Robustness 185
4.2.5.7 Further Labour Market Reforms 187
4.2.6 The Run Up to the Collapse: 2001 188
4.2.6.1 Meddling with the CBA 188
4.2.6.2 Emission of Quasi Monies 193
4.2.6.3 Social and Political Overflow, and the End of the CBA 194
4.2.7 A Sketch of the Post Collapse 195
5 WHAT WENT WRONG? 199
5.1 The Main Suspects 199
5.1.1 Fiscal Imbalance 199
5.1.1.1 Persistent Budget Deficits 200
5.1.1.2 Total Indebtedness 202
5.12 Overvalued Exchange Rate 204
5.1.2.1 Real Appreciation before 1998 204
5.1.2.2 The Real Exchange Rate after 1998 205
5.1.3 Sudden Stop 207
5.1.3.1 Leveraged Argentina 208
5.1.3.2 Debt Sustainability 209
5.1.3.3 The Sudden Stop in the Region 210
5.1.4 Shock Exacerbation within MERCOSUR 213
5.1.4.1 1994 1998: Fixed Here, Fixed plus Sterilisation There 214
5.1.4.2 1999 2001: Fixed Here, Floating plus Sterilisation There 215
5.1.4.3 Exposed within MERCOSUR : 216
5.15 Institutional Defects 217
5.1.5.1 Insufficient Labour Market Reforms 217
5.1.5.2 Insufficient Diversification of Production 219
5.1.5.3 Banking Sector Reforms Impaired 221
13
5.1.5.4 Other Deficient Reforms 223
5.1.6 Politics 226
5.1.7 The IMF 228
5.1.7.1 The IMF and the CBA 229
5.1.7.2 Outline of the IMF's Engagement 1991 2001 230
5.1.7.3 The Role of the IMF during 1991 to 2000 232
5.1.7.4 The Role of the IMF in the Crisis 234
5.1.7.5 The Fund's Responsibilities 237
5.1.8 The Washington Consensus 240
5.1.9 The Currency Board Itself. 243
5.2 Taking Stock 244
5.2.1 Vulnerability 244
5.2.2 Triggers 247
5.3 Missed Opportunities? 249
5.3.1 Soft Exit during 1993/1994 250
5.3.2 Soft Exit during the Second Expansionary Phase 251
5.3.3 Hard Exit after the External Shocks of the Late Nineties 252
5.3.4 Exit towards Full Dollarisation until 1999 254
5.3.5 Dollarisation in the Midst of Crisis 255
6 CONCLUSION 259
Some Lessons 260
Argentina's New Challenge 264
BIBLIOGRAPHY 267
STATISTICAL APPENDIX 279
Macro Indicators 279
Financial and Banking Indicators 281
Fiscal Indicators 284
Distribution and Poverty Indicators 287
Selected Data 288
15
Figures
Figure 1: Stabilisation Programmes in Argentina 1959 1990 27
Figure 2: Inflation in Argentina 1920 1989(1) 28
Figure 3: Annual Inflation Rates 1980 199001 29
Figure 4: Base Money, Money Circulation, and Money Aggregates 1984 1990 32
Figure 5: Budget Deficits 1980 1990 35
Figure 6: Presidential Elections and Inflation 37
Figure 7: Government Financing 1980 1990 39
Figure 8: Foreign Debt 1980 1990 39
Figure 9: Budget Deficit and Inflation 1980 1990 40
Figure 10: Tax Revenue and Tax Structure 1980 1990 41
Figure 11: Fiscal Deficits, Seigniorage, and Inflation 45
Figure 12: Foreign Currency Deposits 1980 1990 51
Figure 13: Nominal Exchange Rates 1980 1990 53
Figure 14: Real Exchange Rates 1980 1990 54
Figure 15: Prices and Real Wages 1981 1990 57
Figure 16: Relative Prices 1981 1990 60
Figure 17: Nominal and Real Interest Rates 1980 1990 64
Figure 18: Inflation and GDP Growth 1980 1990 68
Figure 19: Unemployment in Argentina 1980 1990 68
Figure 20: Output Growth in Regional Comparison 1980 1990 69
Figure 21: Foreign Trade 1980 1990 70
Figure 22: Foreign Trade prices (1986=100) 70
Figure 23: Real Incomes by Population Groups, 1980=100 72
Figure 24: Balance Sheet of a Currency Board 89
Figure 25: Balance Sheet of a Central Bank 90
Figure 26: Mercantilist vs. Classical Doctrines 95
Figure 27: Capital Flows to Latin America between 1998 and 2001 (% of GDP) 210
Figure 28: The Sudden Stop in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile 212
Figure 29: IMF Financing Arrangements with Argentina 1991 2001 231
Figure 30: Argentine Real GDP Growth and its Components 279
Figure 31: Foreign Trade and Current Account Balance 279
Figure 32: Real Effective Exchange Rate and International Reserves 280
Figure 33: Unemployment Rate 280
Figure 34: Inflation and Money Growth 281
Figure 35: Deflation 281
Figure 36: Money Market and Lending Rates 282
Figure 37: Interest Rate and Risk Spreads 282
16
Figure 38: Peso Interest Rates 283
Figure 39: Bank Lending to Public and Private Sector 283
Figure 40: Peso and Dollar Bank Deposits 284
Figure 41: Public and External Debt 284
Figure 42: External Debt as a Percentage of Exports 285
Figure 43: Primary Government Balance 285
Figure 44: Overall Government Balance 286
Figure 45: Major Taxes in Argentina, as of December 2001 286
Figure 46: Gini Coefficient 287
Figure 47: People Living below the Official Poverty Line 287
Figure 48: Key Economic Data 288
Figure 49: Indicators of Economic Structure in Selected Emerging Market
Economies 289 |
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| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Maute, Jutta |
| author_GND | (DE-588)124471307 |
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| author_role | aut |
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| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV021728850 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)71336700 (DE-599)BVBBV021728850 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3726/b13965 |
| era | Geschichte 1980-2002 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1980-2002 |
| format | Book |
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| genre | (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Hochschulschrift |
| geographic | Argentinien Argentinien (DE-588)4002890-2 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Argentinien |
| id | DE-604.BV021728850 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T15:25:42Z |
| indexdate | 2025-02-20T07:11:43Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0820487082 363155608X |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014942388 |
| oclc_num | 71336700 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-12 DE-210 DE-521 DE-1102 DE-1046 DE-1028 DE-1050 DE-573 DE-M347 DE-92 DE-1051 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-859 DE-860 DE-1049 DE-861 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS DE-2070s DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-Y3 DE-255 DE-Y7 DE-Y2 DE-70 DE-2174 DE-127 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-20 DE-706 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-210 DE-521 DE-1102 DE-1046 DE-1028 DE-1050 DE-573 DE-M347 DE-92 DE-1051 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-859 DE-860 DE-1049 DE-861 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS DE-2070s DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-Y3 DE-255 DE-Y7 DE-Y2 DE-70 DE-2174 DE-127 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-20 DE-706 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 |
| physical | 289 Seiten Diagramme |
| psigel | ZDB-94-OAB ebook |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publishDateSearch | 2006 |
| publishDateSort | 2006 |
| publisher | Lang |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Hohenheimer Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften |
| series2 | Hohenheimer Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften |
| spellingShingle | Maute, Jutta Hyperinflation, currency board and bust the case of Argentina Hohenheimer Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften Argentina. Caja de Conversión Currency boards Argentina Currency question Argentina Monetary policy Argentina Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 gnd Wechselkurs (DE-588)4064921-0 gnd Konvertierbarkeit (DE-588)4165210-1 gnd Währung (DE-588)4064147-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4026887-1 (DE-588)4064921-0 (DE-588)4165210-1 (DE-588)4064147-8 (DE-588)4002890-2 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Hyperinflation, currency board and bust the case of Argentina |
| title_auth | Hyperinflation, currency board and bust the case of Argentina |
| title_exact_search | Hyperinflation, currency board and bust the case of Argentina |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Hyperinflation, currency board and bust the case of Argentina |
| title_full | Hyperinflation, currency board and bust the case of Argentina Jutta Maute |
| title_fullStr | Hyperinflation, currency board and bust the case of Argentina Jutta Maute |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hyperinflation, currency board and bust the case of Argentina Jutta Maute |
| title_short | Hyperinflation, currency board and bust |
| title_sort | hyperinflation currency board and bust the case of argentina |
| title_sub | the case of Argentina |
| topic | Argentina. Caja de Conversión Currency boards Argentina Currency question Argentina Monetary policy Argentina Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 gnd Wechselkurs (DE-588)4064921-0 gnd Konvertierbarkeit (DE-588)4165210-1 gnd Währung (DE-588)4064147-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Argentina. Caja de Conversión Currency boards Argentina Currency question Argentina Monetary policy Argentina Inflation Wechselkurs Konvertierbarkeit Währung Argentinien Hochschulschrift |
| url | https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/32664 https://doi.org/10.3726/b13965 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014942388&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000005640 |
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