The Future of Futures Studies: a Delphi Study with a German Perspective
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Aachen
Shaker
2006
|
| Series: | Berichte aus der Betriebswirtschaft
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | VII, 113 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3832250131 9783832250133 |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The Future of Futures Studies |b a Delphi Study with a German Perspective |c Jan Oliver Schwarz |
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Table of Contents I
List of Tables Ill
List of figures IV
List of appendices V
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Definition of the research problem 1
1.3 Survey of the related literature 2
1.4 Data and treatment of the data 3
1.4.1 Design of the Delphi study 3
1.4.2 Participants 3
1.4.3 Questionnaire 4
1.5 Framework for the proposed study 4
CHAPTER 2: FUTURES STUDIES IN MANAGEMENT 5
2.1 In troducti on 5
2.2 Thinking about the future 5
2.3 The history of futures studies 8
2.4 Methods of futures studies 9
2.4.1 Forecasting 12
2.4.2 Simulation and gaming 12
2.4.3 The Delphi technique 13
2.4.4 The Scenario technique 14
2.4.5 Issue Management 16
2.4.5.1 Weak Signals 17
2.4.5.2 Environmental Scanning 17
2.4.5.3 The Process of a Strategic Early Warning System 18
2.4.6 Creativity 19
2.5 Futures studies and Management 20
2.6 Futures studies in German corporations 21
2.7 Conclusion 22
CHAPTER 3: THE DELPHI STUDY 23
3.1 Introduction 23
3.2 Design of the study 23
3.2.1 Design of the process 23
3.2.2 Selection of the panel 25
3.2.3 Design of the questionnaire 26
3.2.4 Evaluation of the questionnaire 28
3.3 Results of the Delphi study 28
3.3.1 The panel of the Delphi study 29
3.3.2 Results of the entire panel 31
3.3.3 Results of the groups 37
3.3.3.1 Results of group 1 (corporate managers) 38
3.3.3.2 Results of group 2 (futurists) 40
3.3.3.3 Results of group 3 (scientists) 41
3.4 Conclusion 42
CHAPTER 4: DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY 43
4.1 Introduction 43
4.2 Discussing the results of the Delphi study 43
4.2.1 Results of the entire panel 43
4.2.2 Differences between the groups 46
4.2.3 Considering the background 49
4.3 Review of literature on the future of Futures Studies 53
4.3.1 How FS should evolve in the Future 53
4.3.2 Forecasts on how FS will evolve in the future 4
4.3.3 Reflecting on the results in the light of the literature 56
4.4 Conclusion 5'
CHAPTER S: CONCLUSION 59
5.1 Introduction 59
5.2 Results of the Delphi study 59
5.3. Conclusion 60
LIST OF REFERENCES 61
APPENDICES 70
UST OF TABLES
Page
Table 2.1: Classification of FS methods 1 1
Table 3.1: Presentation of results 29
Table 4,1: Results in relative figiirers 47
Table 4.2: Results of questions no. 4, 6, and 8 in relative figuiers 50
Table 4.3: Results of question no. 12m relative figiirers 52
LIST OF FIGURES
Page ;
Figure 2.1: Ue process of a StategK Early Warning System ••¦¦^
Figure 3.1: The process of the Delphi study 27
Figure 3.2: Screenshot of the online Delphi 3Q :
Figure 3.3: Gender structure of the panel 3Q
Figure 3.4: Age structure of the panel 31 :
Figure 3.5: Proportions of the three groups in the panel I
LIST OF APPENDICES
Page
QUESTIONNAIRE 70
FEEDBACK SHEET 73
MEMBERS OF THE PANEL 81
FIGURES ON THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY:
RESULTS OF THE ENTIRE PANEL 83
Figure A.I: Answers to question no. 3 83
Figure A.2: Answers to question no. 6 Environmental Scanning, Trend monitoring,
Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 83
Figure A.3: Answers to question no. 6 Scenario technique 84
Figure A.4: Answers to question no. 6 — Delphi method 84
Figure A.5: Answers to question no. 6 — Quantitative forecasting methods 85
Figure A.6: Answers to question no. 6 Simulation and Gaming 85
Figure A.7: Answers to question no. 6 Creativity methods 86
; Figure A.8: Answers to question no. 12 Companies in general 86
Figure A.9: Answers to question no. 13 87
Figure A. 10: Answers to question no. 14 87
Figure A.I 1: Answers to question no. 15 88
Figure A. 12: Cluster answers to question no. 18 88
FIGURES ON THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY:
RESULTS OF THE GROUPS GROUP 1 (CORPORATE MANAGERS) 89
Figure A. 13: Answers to question no. 3 — Corporate managers 89
Figure A. 14: Answers to question no. 4 Corporate managers Environmental
Scanning, Trend monitoring, Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 89
Figure A. 15: Answers to question no. 4 Corporate managers Scenario technique 90
Figure A. 16: Answers to question no. 4 Corporate managers — Delphi method 90
Figure A. 17: Answers to question no. 4 — Corporate managers —Quantitative
forecasting methods 91
Figure A. 18: Answers to question no. 4 — Corporate managers —Simulation and
Gaming 91
i v
i
i
Figure A.19: Answers to question no. 4 Corporate managers Creativity methods 92
Figure A.20: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Environmental
Scanning, Trend monitoring, Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 92 f
Figure A.21: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Scenario technique.93 :
Figure A.22: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Delphi method 93
Figure A.23: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Quantitative
foretasting methods 94
Figure A.24: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Simulation and .
Gaming 94 j
Figure A.25: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Creativity methods.95 ;
Figure A.26: Answers to question no. 8 — Corporate managers Environmental
Scanning, Trend monitoring, Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 95 :
Figure A.27: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers Scenano technique.96 ;
Figure A.28: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers ¦ Delphi method 96 ;
Figure A.29: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers Quantitative J
forecasting methods "' \
Figure A.30: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers Simulation and \
Gaming 97 j
Figure A.31: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers Creativity methods.98 j
Figure A.32: Answers to question no. 10 Corporate managers 98 ¦
Figure A.33: Answers to question no. 11 Corporate managers 99
Figure A.34: Answers to question no. 12 — Corporate managers ""
Figure A.35: Answers to question no. 12 — Corporate managers 1"
Figure A.36: Answers to question no. 13 Corporate managers '00
Figure A.37: Answers to question no. 14 Corporate managers ^
Figure A.38: Answers to question no. 15 Corporate managers 101
FIGURES ON THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY:
RESULTS OF THE GROUPS GROUP 2 (FUTURISTS) 102
Figure A.39: Answers to question no. 3 Futurists 10^
Figure 3.40: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Environmental Scanning, Trend
monitoring, Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 102
Figure A.41: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Scenario technique 103
Figure A.42: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Delphi method 103
Figure A.43: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Quantitative forecasting methods
104
VI
Figure A.44: A.nswers to question no. 6 — Futurists Simulation and Gaming 104
Figure A.45: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Creativity methods 105
Figure A.46: Answers to question no. 12 Futurists 105
Figure A.47: Answers to question no. 13 Futurists 106
Figure A.48: Answers to question no. 14 Futurists 106
Figure A.49: Answers to question no. 15 Futurists 107
FIGUKES ON THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY:
RESULTS OF THE GROUPS GROUP 3 (SCIENTISTS) 108
Figure A.50: Answers to question no. 3 Scientists 108
Figure A.51: Answers to question no. 6 Scientists Environmental Scanning, Trend
monitonng, Trend research, Strategie Early Warning 108
Figure A.52: Answers to question no. 6 Scientists Scenario technique 109
Figure A.53: Answers to question no. 6 — Scientists Delphi metbod 109
Figure A.54: Answers to question no. 6 — Scientists — Quantitative forecasting methods
HO
Figure A.55: Answers to question no. 6 — Scientists Simulation and gaming 110
Figure A.56: Answers to question no. 6 — Scientists — Creativity methods 111
Figure A.57: Answers to question no. 12 Scientists 111
Figure A.58: Answers to question no. 13 Scientists 112
Figure A.59: Answers to question no. 14 Scientists 112
Figure A.60: Answers to question no. 15 — Scientists 113
VII |
| adam_txt |
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Table of Contents I
List of Tables Ill
List of figures IV
List of appendices V
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Definition of the research problem 1
1.3 Survey of the related literature 2
1.4 Data and treatment of the data 3
1.4.1 Design of the Delphi study 3
1.4.2 Participants 3
1.4.3 Questionnaire 4
1.5 Framework for the proposed study 4
CHAPTER 2: FUTURES STUDIES IN MANAGEMENT 5
2.1 In troducti on 5
2.2 Thinking about the future 5
2.3 The history of futures studies 8
2.4 Methods of futures studies 9
2.4.1 Forecasting 12
2.4.2 Simulation and gaming 12
2.4.3 The Delphi technique 13
2.4.4 The Scenario technique 14
2.4.5 Issue Management 16
2.4.5.1 Weak Signals 17
2.4.5.2 Environmental Scanning 17
2.4.5.3 The Process of a Strategic Early Warning System 18
2.4.6 Creativity 19
2.5 Futures studies and Management 20
2.6 Futures studies in German corporations 21
2.7 Conclusion 22
CHAPTER 3: THE DELPHI STUDY 23
3.1 Introduction 23
3.2 Design of the study 23
3.2.1 Design of the process 23
3.2.2 Selection of the panel 25
3.2.3 Design of the questionnaire 26
3.2.4 Evaluation of the questionnaire 28
3.3 Results of the Delphi study 28
3.3.1 The panel of the Delphi study 29
3.3.2 Results of the entire panel 31
3.3.3 Results of the groups 37
3.3.3.1 Results of group 1 (corporate managers) 38
3.3.3.2 Results of group 2 (futurists) 40
3.3.3.3 Results of group 3 (scientists) 41
3.4 Conclusion 42
CHAPTER 4: DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY 43
4.1 Introduction 43
4.2 Discussing the results of the Delphi study 43
4.2.1 Results of the entire panel 43
4.2.2 Differences between the groups 46
4.2.3 Considering the background 49
4.3 Review of literature on the future of Futures Studies 53
4.3.1 How FS should evolve in the Future 53
4.3.2 Forecasts on how FS will evolve in the future 4
4.3.3 Reflecting on the results in the light of the literature 56
4.4 Conclusion 5'
CHAPTER S: CONCLUSION 59
5.1 Introduction 59
5.2 Results of the Delphi study 59
5.3. Conclusion 60
LIST OF REFERENCES 61
APPENDICES 70
UST OF TABLES
Page
Table 2.1: Classification of FS methods 1 1
Table 3.1: Presentation of results 29
Table 4,1: Results in relative figiirers 47
Table 4.2: Results of questions no. 4, 6, and 8 in relative figuiers 50
Table 4.3: Results of question no. 12m relative figiirers 52
LIST OF FIGURES
Page ;
Figure 2.1: Ue process of a StategK Early Warning System ••¦¦^
Figure 3.1: The process of the Delphi study 27
Figure 3.2: Screenshot of the online Delphi 3Q :
Figure 3.3: Gender structure of the panel 3Q
Figure 3.4: Age structure of the panel 31 :
Figure 3.5: Proportions of the three groups in the panel I
LIST OF APPENDICES
Page
QUESTIONNAIRE 70
FEEDBACK SHEET 73
MEMBERS OF THE PANEL 81
FIGURES ON THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY:
RESULTS OF THE ENTIRE PANEL 83
Figure A.I: Answers to question no. 3 83
Figure A.2: Answers to question no. 6 Environmental Scanning, Trend monitoring,
Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 83
Figure A.3: Answers to question no. 6 Scenario technique 84
Figure A.4: Answers to question no. 6 — Delphi method 84
Figure A.5: Answers to question no. 6 — Quantitative forecasting methods 85
Figure A.6: Answers to question no. 6 Simulation and Gaming 85
Figure A.7: Answers to question no. 6 Creativity methods 86
; Figure A.8: Answers to question no. 12 Companies in general 86
Figure A.9: Answers to question no. 13 87
Figure A. 10: Answers to question no. 14 87
Figure A.I 1: Answers to question no. 15 88
Figure A. 12: Cluster answers to question no. 18 88
FIGURES ON THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY:
RESULTS OF THE GROUPS GROUP 1 (CORPORATE MANAGERS) 89
Figure A. 13: Answers to question no. 3 — Corporate managers 89
Figure A. 14: Answers to question no. 4 Corporate managers Environmental
Scanning, Trend monitoring, Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 89
Figure A. 15: Answers to question no. 4 Corporate managers Scenario technique 90
Figure A. 16: Answers to question no. 4 Corporate managers — Delphi method 90
Figure A. 17: Answers to question no. 4 — Corporate managers —Quantitative
forecasting methods 91
Figure A. 18: Answers to question no. 4 — Corporate managers —Simulation and
Gaming 91
i v
i
i
Figure A.19: Answers to question no. 4 Corporate managers Creativity methods 92
Figure A.20: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Environmental
Scanning, Trend monitoring, Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 92 f
Figure A.21: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Scenario technique.93 :
Figure A.22: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Delphi method 93
Figure A.23: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Quantitative
foretasting methods 94
Figure A.24: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Simulation and .
Gaming 94 j
Figure A.25: Answers to question no. 6 Corporate managers Creativity methods.95 ;
Figure A.26: Answers to question no. 8 — Corporate managers Environmental
Scanning, Trend monitoring, Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 95 :
Figure A.27: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers Scenano technique.96 ;
Figure A.28: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers ¦ Delphi method 96 ;
Figure A.29: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers Quantitative J
forecasting methods "' \
Figure A.30: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers Simulation and \
Gaming 97 j
Figure A.31: Answers to question no. 8 Corporate managers Creativity methods.98 j
Figure A.32: Answers to question no. 10 Corporate managers 98 ¦
Figure A.33: Answers to question no. 11 Corporate managers 99
Figure A.34: Answers to question no. 12 — Corporate managers ""
Figure A.35: Answers to question no. 12 — Corporate managers 1"
Figure A.36: Answers to question no. 13 Corporate managers '00
Figure A.37: Answers to question no. 14 Corporate managers ^
Figure A.38: Answers to question no. 15 Corporate managers 101
FIGURES ON THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY:
RESULTS OF THE GROUPS GROUP 2 (FUTURISTS) 102
Figure A.39: Answers to question no. 3 Futurists 10^
Figure 3.40: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Environmental Scanning, Trend
monitoring, Trend research, Strategic Early Warning 102
Figure A.41: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Scenario technique 103
Figure A.42: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Delphi method 103
Figure A.43: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Quantitative forecasting methods
104
VI
Figure A.44: A.nswers to question no. 6 — Futurists Simulation and Gaming 104
Figure A.45: Answers to question no. 6 Futurists Creativity methods 105
Figure A.46: Answers to question no. 12 Futurists 105
Figure A.47: Answers to question no. 13 Futurists 106
Figure A.48: Answers to question no. 14 Futurists 106
Figure A.49: Answers to question no. 15 Futurists 107
FIGUKES ON THE RESULTS OF THE DELPHI STUDY:
RESULTS OF THE GROUPS GROUP 3 (SCIENTISTS) 108
Figure A.50: Answers to question no. 3 Scientists 108
Figure A.51: Answers to question no. 6 Scientists Environmental Scanning, Trend
monitonng, Trend research, Strategie Early Warning 108
Figure A.52: Answers to question no. 6 Scientists Scenario technique 109
Figure A.53: Answers to question no. 6 — Scientists Delphi metbod 109
Figure A.54: Answers to question no. 6 — Scientists — Quantitative forecasting methods
HO
Figure A.55: Answers to question no. 6 — Scientists Simulation and gaming 110
Figure A.56: Answers to question no. 6 — Scientists — Creativity methods 111
Figure A.57: Answers to question no. 12 Scientists 111
Figure A.58: Answers to question no. 13 Scientists 112
Figure A.59: Answers to question no. 14 Scientists 112
Figure A.60: Answers to question no. 15 — Scientists 113
VII |
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| geographic | Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Deutschland |
| id | DE-604.BV021605917 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T14:49:12Z |
| indexdate | 2024-12-16T17:02:13Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3832250131 9783832250133 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014821199 |
| oclc_num | 181564581 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-188 |
| physical | VII, 113 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publishDateSearch | 2006 |
| publishDateSort | 2006 |
| publisher | Shaker |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Berichte aus der Betriebswirtschaft |
| spelling | Schwarz, Jan Oliver Verfasser aut The Future of Futures Studies a Delphi Study with a German Perspective Jan Oliver Schwarz Aachen Shaker 2006 VII, 113 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Berichte aus der Betriebswirtschaft Strategische Frühaufklärung (DE-588)4281858-8 gnd rswk-swf Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd rswk-swf Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd rswk-swf Delphi-Technik (DE-588)4330954-9 gnd rswk-swf Umfrage (DE-588)4005227-8 gnd rswk-swf Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf Management (DE-588)4037278-9 s Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 s Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 s DE-604 Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 s Strategische Frühaufklärung (DE-588)4281858-8 s Delphi-Technik (DE-588)4330954-9 s Umfrage (DE-588)4005227-8 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014821199&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Schwarz, Jan Oliver The Future of Futures Studies a Delphi Study with a German Perspective Strategische Frühaufklärung (DE-588)4281858-8 gnd Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Delphi-Technik (DE-588)4330954-9 gnd Umfrage (DE-588)4005227-8 gnd Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4281858-8 (DE-588)4037278-9 (DE-588)4061963-1 (DE-588)4038971-6 (DE-588)4330954-9 (DE-588)4005227-8 (DE-588)4155776-1 (DE-588)4011882-4 |
| title | The Future of Futures Studies a Delphi Study with a German Perspective |
| title_auth | The Future of Futures Studies a Delphi Study with a German Perspective |
| title_exact_search | The Future of Futures Studies a Delphi Study with a German Perspective |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The Future of Futures Studies a Delphi Study with a German Perspective |
| title_full | The Future of Futures Studies a Delphi Study with a German Perspective Jan Oliver Schwarz |
| title_fullStr | The Future of Futures Studies a Delphi Study with a German Perspective Jan Oliver Schwarz |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Future of Futures Studies a Delphi Study with a German Perspective Jan Oliver Schwarz |
| title_short | The Future of Futures Studies |
| title_sort | the future of futures studies a delphi study with a german perspective |
| title_sub | a Delphi Study with a German Perspective |
| topic | Strategische Frühaufklärung (DE-588)4281858-8 gnd Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Delphi-Technik (DE-588)4330954-9 gnd Umfrage (DE-588)4005227-8 gnd Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Strategische Frühaufklärung Management Unternehmen Methode Delphi-Technik Umfrage Futurologie Deutschland |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014821199&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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