Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations:
"Macroeconomists--especially those studying monetary policy--often view the business cycle as a transitory departure from the smooth evolution of a neoclassical growth model. Important ideas contributed by Friedman, Lucas, and the developers of the sticky-price macro model generate this type of...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2005
|
| Schriftenreihe: | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series
11651 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | "Macroeconomists--especially those studying monetary policy--often view the business cycle as a transitory departure from the smooth evolution of a neoclassical growth model. Important ideas contributed by Friedman, Lucas, and the developers of the sticky-price macro model generate this type of aggregate behavior. But the real-business cycle model shows that the neoclassical model implies anything but smooth growth. A purely neoclassical model, devoid of anything resembling a business cycle in the sense of transitory departures from neoclassical equilibrium, nevertheless explains most of the volatility of GDP growth at all frequencies. Monetary policymakers looking to a neoclassical model to provide the neutral levels of key variables-potential GDP, the natural rate of unemployment, and the equilibrium real interest rate, need to solve a complicated and controversial model to find these constructs. They cannot take average or smoothed values of actual data to find them. Further, low-frequency movements of unemployment suggest a failure of the basic idea that departures from the neoclassical equilibrium are transitory. I discuss new theories of the labor market capable of explaining the low-frequency movements of unemployment. I conclude that monetary policymakers should not try to discern neutral values of real variables. Some branches of modem theory do not support the concepts of potential GDP, the natural rate of unemployment, and the equilibrium real interest rate. Even the theories that do support the concepts suggest that measurement in real time is impractical"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site. |
| Beschreibung: | 52 S. graph. Darst. |
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| 490 | 1 | |a National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |v 11651 | |
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| id | DE-604.BV021273162 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T13:45:06Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:34:24Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014594251 |
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| physical | 52 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2005 |
| publishDateSearch | 2005 |
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| publisher | National Bureau of Economic Research |
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| series | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| series2 | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| spelling | Hall, Robert E. 1943- Verfasser (DE-588)120536064 aut Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations Robert E. Hall Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2005 52 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11651 "Macroeconomists--especially those studying monetary policy--often view the business cycle as a transitory departure from the smooth evolution of a neoclassical growth model. Important ideas contributed by Friedman, Lucas, and the developers of the sticky-price macro model generate this type of aggregate behavior. But the real-business cycle model shows that the neoclassical model implies anything but smooth growth. A purely neoclassical model, devoid of anything resembling a business cycle in the sense of transitory departures from neoclassical equilibrium, nevertheless explains most of the volatility of GDP growth at all frequencies. Monetary policymakers looking to a neoclassical model to provide the neutral levels of key variables-potential GDP, the natural rate of unemployment, and the equilibrium real interest rate, need to solve a complicated and controversial model to find these constructs. They cannot take average or smoothed values of actual data to find them. Further, low-frequency movements of unemployment suggest a failure of the basic idea that departures from the neoclassical equilibrium are transitory. I discuss new theories of the labor market capable of explaining the low-frequency movements of unemployment. I conclude that monetary policymakers should not try to discern neutral values of real variables. Some branches of modem theory do not support the concepts of potential GDP, the natural rate of unemployment, and the equilibrium real interest rate. Even the theories that do support the concepts suggest that measurement in real time is impractical"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site. Wirtschaftsentwicklung Ökonometrisches Modell Business cycles Econometric models Economic development Econometric models Neoclassical school of economics Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11651 (DE-604)BV002801238 11651 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11651.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Hall, Robert E. 1943- Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series Wirtschaftsentwicklung Ökonometrisches Modell Business cycles Econometric models Economic development Econometric models Neoclassical school of economics |
| title | Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations |
| title_auth | Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations |
| title_exact_search | Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations |
| title_full | Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations Robert E. Hall |
| title_fullStr | Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations Robert E. Hall |
| title_full_unstemmed | Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations Robert E. Hall |
| title_short | Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations |
| title_sort | separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations |
| topic | Wirtschaftsentwicklung Ökonometrisches Modell Business cycles Econometric models Economic development Econometric models Neoclassical school of economics |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaftsentwicklung Ökonometrisches Modell Business cycles Econometric models Economic development Econometric models Neoclassical school of economics |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11651.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hallroberte separatingthebusinesscyclefromothereconomicfluctuations |