Country risk assessment: a guide to global investment strategy
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Chichester
Wiley
2003
|
| Series: | Wiley finance series
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Publisher description Table of contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XIV, 271 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0470845007 |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Country risk assessment |b a guide to global investment strategy |c Michel Henry Bouchet, Ephraim Clark and Bertrand Groslambert |
| 264 | 1 | |a Chichester |b Wiley |c 2003 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Investments, Foreign | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Country risk | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface
ix
Acknowledgments
xi
Foreword by Campbell R. Harvey
xiii
1
Introduction
1
1.1
An historical perspective
1
1.2
Outline of the book
4
References
7
2
An Overview of Country Risk
9
2.1
A Review of the literature
9
2.1.1
The terminologies
9
2.1.2
Definitions of country risk
10
2.1.3
Sources of risk
13
2.1.4
Types of investment
13
2.1.5
The historical context
14
2.1.6
Different methodologies
15
2.2
Classification and examples of country risk
16
2.2.1
Natural disasters
16
2.2.2
Socio-political risk
17
2.2.3
Country-specific economic risk
22
References
25
3
The Economic and Financial Foundations of Country Risk Assessment
31
3.1
Devaluation
32
Relative price effects: The elasticities approach
32
Income effects: The absorption approach
33
Stock adjustments: The monetary approach
38
Stock adjustments: The portfolio balance approach
41
Country risk: Ratio analysis
42
47
3.1
.1
3.1
.2
3.
.3
3.
1.4
3.1
.5
References
Contents
4
Country
Risk Assessment Methodologies: The Qualitative, Structural
Approach to Country Risk
49
4.1
Introduction
49
4.2
Analysis of welfare and social indicators of the development process
51
4.3
Analysis of the macroeconomic structures of growth
52
4.4
External indebtedness, liquidity and solvency analysis
57
4.5
The savings-investment gap and domestic financial intermediation
61
4.6
Growth, crisis and governance
63
4.7
The qualitative aggregate approach to political risk
69
4.8
Conclusion
72
References
75
5
Assessment Methodologies: Ratings
79
5.1
Global country risk ratings
79
5.1.1
Specialized ranking firms
79
5.1.2
Export credit agencies
88
5.1.3
Summary of global country risk ranking methods
90
5.2
Country credit ratings
93
5.2.1
Credit rating agencies
94
5.2.2
Fitch
94
5.2.3
Moody s
98
5.2.4
Standard
&
Poor s
101
5.2.5
Country rankings published in magazines
102
5.2.6
Summary of country credit rating methods
105
5.3
Conclusion
109
References
110
6
Econometric and Mathematical Methods
115
6.1
Discriminant analysis
115
6.2
Logit and
probit
models
117
6.3
Regression analysis and model building
118
6.4
Monte Carlo simulations
121
6.5
Value at risk (VaR)
122
6.5.1
VaR for a single-asset portfolio
123
6.5.2
VaR for a two-asset portfolio
123
6.5.3
Other methods for Estimating VaR
124
6.6
Principal components analysis
124
6.7
Non-linearities and non-parametric estimation
125
6.8
Artificial neural networks
127
6.9
Multicriteria
127
References
129
7
Risk Models
133
7.1
Credit risk
133
7.1.1
Probabilities of default using historical data
133
___________________Contents______
vii
.2
Probabilities of default using interest rate spreads
133
.3
Probabilities of default using firm value
135
.4
Countrymetrics
137
.5
Loss given default
140
.6
Credit value at risk
140
.7
Credit VaR, default correlation and contagion
141
7.2
Investment risk
142
7.2.1
Adjusting the expected cash flows
142
7.2.2
Adjusting the discount rate
142
7.2.3
The Macro CAPM
144
7.2.4
Measuring political risk as an insurance premium
145
References
147
International Portfolio Investment Analysis
149
8.1
Modern financial theory
149
8.2
International portfolio investment and country risk management
154
8.2.1
The international portfolio investment panorama
154
8.2.2
Impact of country risk on international portfolio investment
155
8.2.3
International diversification
156
8.2.4
International Capital Asset Pricing Model
158
8.3
The Limits of the ICAPM
159
8.3.1
The normal distribution
160
8.3.2
Portfolio diversification
161
8.3.3
The CAPM
163
8.3.4
The Bank of America approach
163
8.3.5
The Goldman Sachs approach
164
8.3.6
The JP Morgan approach
165
8.4
Conclusion
165
References
166
Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries: An Historical Perspective
171
9.1
Introduction
171
9.2
Historical perspective
174
9.2.1
Economic growth-cum-debt process
174
9.2.2
Bonds versus loans
174
9.2.3
The rising importance of commercial bank lending in the
post-WWII era
175
9.2.4
The debt crisis and the market-driven menu approach
176
9.3
Solving the debt crisis
177
9.3.1
Phase I
-
Buying time with rescheduling
177
9.3.2
Phase II
-
The new money approach
178
9.3.3
Phase ID
-
The official concerted approach to debt restructuring
179
9.4
Debt reduction instruments
185
9.5
The way forward in the early 2000s: Back to the
1
890s?
188
9.5.1
The return of private capital flows
188
9.5.2
The return of bondholders
189
Contents
9.5.3
The rise in non-debt-creating flows
190
9.5.4
The emergence of structured financing
190
9.6
Conclusion 191
Appendix: The Brady Plan at work in EMCs
192
References
195
10
Country Risk and Risk Mitigation Instruments
197
10.1
Introduction
197
10.2
The role of national export credit agencies
198
10.3
The role of official multilateral risk guarantee institutions
201
10.3.1
The World Bank s co-financing program
201
10.3.2
The role of the International Finance Corporation
203
10.3.3
The role of
MIGA
(Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency)
204
10.4
The risk mitigation role of public and private risk guarantee
institutions
204
10.5
The role of private providers of specialist insurance for country risk
205
10.6
The market-based menu approach
206
10.6.1
The rise of the London Club debt secondary market of emerging
market loans
208
10.6.2
Price developments
211
10.6.3
Technical supply and demand factors affecting debt prices
211
10.6.4
Debt conversion transactions
212
10.6.5
Mechanics of debt conversion
213
10.6.6
Range of debt conversion transactions
215
10.6.7
Official bilateral debt conversion
217
10.6.8
Debt conversion: A positive sum game?
218
References
220
11
Country Risk Assessment: A Matter of Information
and Intelligence Gathering
221
11.1
Introduction
221
11.2
Solvency and liquidity risk: The supply of debt-related information
223
11.2.1
Official sources of country risk data and information
223
11.2.2
Private sources of country risk data and information
234
11.3
FDI-related country risk assessment
239
11.3.1
The role of specialized country risk assessment companies
239
11.3.2
National public and private information sources
240
11.3.3
Think-tanks and risk analysis companies
241
11.4
Conclusion
243
Appendix: External debt, official information sources
244
References
245
Glossary
247
Index
265
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Preface
ix
Acknowledgments
xi
Foreword by Campbell R. Harvey
xiii
1
Introduction
1
1.1
An historical perspective
1
1.2
Outline of the book
4
References
7
2
An Overview of Country Risk
9
2.1
A Review of the literature
9
2.1.1
The terminologies
9
2.1.2
Definitions of country risk
10
2.1.3
Sources of risk
13
2.1.4
Types of investment
13
2.1.5
The historical context
14
2.1.6
Different methodologies
15
2.2
Classification and examples of country risk
16
2.2.1
Natural disasters
16
2.2.2
Socio-political risk
17
2.2.3
Country-specific economic risk
22
References
25
3
The Economic and Financial Foundations of Country Risk Assessment
31
3.1
Devaluation
32
Relative price effects: The elasticities approach
32
Income effects: The absorption approach
33
Stock adjustments: The monetary approach
38
Stock adjustments: The portfolio balance approach
41
Country risk: Ratio analysis
42
47
3.1
.1
3.1
.2
3.
.3
3.
1.4
3.1
.5
References
Contents
4
Country
Risk Assessment Methodologies: The Qualitative, Structural
Approach to Country Risk
49
4.1
Introduction
49
4.2
Analysis of welfare and social indicators of the development process
51
4.3
Analysis of the macroeconomic structures of growth
52
4.4
External indebtedness, liquidity and solvency analysis
57
4.5
The savings-investment gap and domestic financial intermediation
61
4.6
Growth, crisis and governance
63
4.7
The "qualitative" aggregate approach to political risk
69
4.8
Conclusion
72
References
75
5
Assessment Methodologies: Ratings
79
5.1
Global country risk ratings
79
5.1.1
Specialized ranking firms
79
5.1.2
Export credit agencies
88
5.1.3
Summary of global country risk ranking methods
90
5.2
Country credit ratings
93
5.2.1
Credit rating agencies
94
5.2.2
Fitch
94
5.2.3
Moody's
98
5.2.4
Standard
&
Poor's
101
5.2.5
Country rankings published in magazines
102
5.2.6
Summary of country credit rating methods
105
5.3
Conclusion
109
References
110
6
Econometric and Mathematical Methods
115
6.1
Discriminant analysis
115
6.2
Logit and
probit
models
117
6.3
Regression analysis and model building
118
6.4
Monte Carlo simulations
121
6.5
Value at risk (VaR)
122
6.5.1
VaR for a single-asset portfolio
123
6.5.2
VaR for a two-asset portfolio
123
6.5.3
Other methods for Estimating VaR
124
6.6
Principal components analysis
124
6.7
Non-linearities and non-parametric estimation
125
6.8
Artificial neural networks
127
6.9
Multicriteria
127
References
129
7
Risk Models
133
7.1
Credit risk
133
7.1.1
Probabilities of default using historical data
133
_Contents_
vii
.2
Probabilities of default using interest rate spreads
133
.3
Probabilities of default using firm value
135
.4
Countrymetrics
137
.5
Loss given default
140
.6
Credit value at risk
140
.7
Credit VaR, default correlation and contagion
141
7.2
Investment risk
142
7.2.1
Adjusting the expected cash flows
142
7.2.2
Adjusting the discount rate
142
7.2.3
The Macro CAPM
144
7.2.4
Measuring political risk as an insurance premium
145
References
147
International Portfolio Investment Analysis
149
8.1
Modern financial theory
149
8.2
International portfolio investment and country risk management
154
8.2.1
The international portfolio investment panorama
154
8.2.2
Impact of country risk on international portfolio investment
155
8.2.3
International diversification
156
8.2.4
International Capital Asset Pricing Model
158
8.3
The Limits of the ICAPM
159
8.3.1
The normal distribution
160
8.3.2
Portfolio diversification
161
8.3.3
The CAPM
163
8.3.4
The Bank of America approach
163
8.3.5
The Goldman Sachs approach
164
8.3.6
The JP Morgan approach
165
8.4
Conclusion
165
References
166
Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries: An Historical Perspective
171
9.1
Introduction
171
9.2
Historical perspective
174
9.2.1
Economic growth-cum-debt process
174
9.2.2
Bonds versus loans
174
9.2.3
The rising importance of commercial bank lending in the
post-WWII era
175
9.2.4
The debt crisis and the market-driven menu approach
176
9.3
Solving the debt crisis
177
9.3.1
Phase I
-
Buying time with rescheduling
177
9.3.2
Phase II
-
The new money approach
178
9.3.3
Phase ID
-
The official concerted approach to debt restructuring
179
9.4
Debt reduction instruments
185
9.5
The way forward in the early 2000s: Back to the
1
890s?
188
9.5.1
The return of private capital flows
188
9.5.2
The return of bondholders
189
Contents
9.5.3
The rise in non-debt-creating flows
190
9.5.4
The emergence of structured financing
190
9.6
Conclusion 191
Appendix: The Brady Plan at work in EMCs
192
References
195
10
Country Risk and Risk Mitigation Instruments
197
10.1
Introduction
197
10.2
The role of national export credit agencies
198
10.3
The role of official multilateral risk guarantee institutions
201
10.3.1
The World Bank's co-financing program
201
10.3.2
The role of the International Finance Corporation
203
10.3.3
The role of
MIGA
(Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency)
204
10.4
The risk mitigation role of public and private risk guarantee
institutions
204
10.5
The role of private providers of specialist insurance for country risk
205
10.6
The market-based "menu" approach
206
10.6.1
The rise of the London Club debt secondary market of emerging
market loans
208
10.6.2
Price developments
211
10.6.3
Technical supply and demand factors affecting debt prices
211
10.6.4
Debt conversion transactions
212
10.6.5
Mechanics of debt conversion
213
10.6.6
Range of debt conversion transactions
215
10.6.7
Official bilateral debt conversion
217
10.6.8
Debt conversion: A positive sum game?
218
References
220
11
Country Risk Assessment: A Matter of Information
and Intelligence Gathering
221
11.1
Introduction
221
11.2
Solvency and liquidity risk: The supply of debt-related information
223
11.2.1
Official sources of country risk data and information
223
11.2.2
Private sources of country risk data and information
234
11.3
FDI-related country risk assessment
239
11.3.1
The role of specialized country risk assessment companies
239
11.3.2
National public and private information sources
240
11.3.3
Think-tanks and risk analysis companies
241
11.4
Conclusion
243
Appendix: External debt, official information sources
244
References
245
Glossary
247
Index
265 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Bouchet, Michel Henri Clark, Ephraim 1948- Groslambert, Bertrand |
| author_GND | (DE-588)122047133 (DE-588)131915940 |
| author_facet | Bouchet, Michel Henri Clark, Ephraim 1948- Groslambert, Bertrand |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Bouchet, Michel Henri |
| author_variant | m h b mh mhb e c ec b g bg |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV020867599 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HG4538 |
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| callnumber-search | HG4538.B653 2003 |
| callnumber-sort | HG 44538 B653 42003 |
| callnumber-subject | HG - Finance |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)51559218 (DE-599)BVBBV020867599 |
| dewey-full | 332.67/321 332.67/3 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 332 - Financial economics |
| dewey-raw | 332.67/3 21 332.67/3 |
| dewey-search | 332.67/3 21 332.67/3 |
| dewey-sort | 3332.67 13 221 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| id | DE-604.BV020867599 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T13:24:56Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:27:03Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0470845007 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014189398 |
| oclc_num | 51559218 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-92 DE-384 DE-1050 DE-521 DE-1043 DE-703 DE-573 |
| owner_facet | DE-92 DE-384 DE-1050 DE-521 DE-1043 DE-703 DE-573 |
| physical | XIV, 271 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2003 |
| publishDateSearch | 2003 |
| publishDateSort | 2003 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Wiley finance series |
| spelling | Bouchet, Michel Henri Verfasser (DE-588)122047133 aut Country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy Michel Henry Bouchet, Ephraim Clark and Bertrand Groslambert Chichester Wiley 2003 XIV, 271 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley finance series Investissements étrangers ram Risque pays ram Investments, Foreign Country risk Länderrating (DE-588)4274326-6 gnd rswk-swf Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 gnd rswk-swf Kreditrisiko (DE-588)4114309-7 gnd rswk-swf Kreditrisiko (DE-588)4114309-7 s Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 s Länderrating (DE-588)4274326-6 s DE-604 Clark, Ephraim 1948- Verfasser (DE-588)131915940 aut Groslambert, Bertrand Verfasser aut http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/wiley037/2003041162.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/wiley032/2003041162.html Table of contents Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014189398&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Bouchet, Michel Henri Clark, Ephraim 1948- Groslambert, Bertrand Country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy Investissements étrangers ram Risque pays ram Investments, Foreign Country risk Länderrating (DE-588)4274326-6 gnd Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 gnd Kreditrisiko (DE-588)4114309-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4274326-6 (DE-588)4027402-0 (DE-588)4114309-7 |
| title | Country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy |
| title_auth | Country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy |
| title_exact_search | Country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy |
| title_full | Country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy Michel Henry Bouchet, Ephraim Clark and Bertrand Groslambert |
| title_fullStr | Country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy Michel Henry Bouchet, Ephraim Clark and Bertrand Groslambert |
| title_full_unstemmed | Country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy Michel Henry Bouchet, Ephraim Clark and Bertrand Groslambert |
| title_short | Country risk assessment |
| title_sort | country risk assessment a guide to global investment strategy |
| title_sub | a guide to global investment strategy |
| topic | Investissements étrangers ram Risque pays ram Investments, Foreign Country risk Länderrating (DE-588)4274326-6 gnd Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 gnd Kreditrisiko (DE-588)4114309-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Investissements étrangers Risque pays Investments, Foreign Country risk Länderrating Internationaler Kapitalmarkt Kreditrisiko |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/wiley037/2003041162.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/wiley032/2003041162.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014189398&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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