Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty: measurement and decomposition
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2004
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XXI, 129 S. graph. Darst. |
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Tables xi
List of Figures xiii
List of Symbols and Abbreviations xv
Chapter 1 General Introduction 1
1.1 Decision under Risk 3
1.1.1 Basics of the Normative Theory 3
1.1.2 Empirical Evidence and Descriptive Theories 6
1.2 Decision under Uncertainty 15
1.2.1 Basics of the Normative Theory 15
1.2.2 Empirical Evidence and Descriptive Theories 17
1.3 Outline of the Dissertation 24
Chapter 2 Choice based Elicitation and Decomposition of Decision Weights for
Gains and Losses under Uncertainty ... 27
2.1 Introduction 27
2.2 Theoretical Framework 29
2.3 Elicitation of Utility Function and Decision Weights 32
2.3.1 Elicitation of the Utility Function 32
2.3.2 Elicitation of Decision Weights 33
2.3.3 Elicitation of Choice based Probabilities 33
2.4 Experiment 34
2.4.1 Subjects and Procedure 34
2.4.2 Method and Stimuli 35
viii CONTENTS
2.5 Results 37
2.5.1 Reliability 37
2.5.2 Utility Function 37
2.5.3 Decision Weights 42
2.5.4 Probabilities and Decision Weights 48
2.5.5 Fitting the Two stage Model 51
2.6 Discussion and Conclusion 55
2.7 Appendix 57
Chapter 3 Measuring Covariation between Preference Parameters: A Simulation
Study •..•••.•.¦•••••••*.••••••••• ¦•¦••*••¦••¦ .•¦••••.•,•».¦„„.,,„.. co
3.1 Introduction 59
3.2 Decision Theoretical Framework 61
3.3 Motivation and Related Literature 62
3.3.1 Motivation 62
3.3.2 Related Theoretical Literature 64
3.3.3 Related Empirical Literature 65
3.4 Specification of the Simulation 68
3.4.1 Design of the Experiment 69
3.4.2 Generation of Hypothetical Preference Statements 71
3.4.3 Specification of the Parameters 74
3.5 Results 77
3.5.1 Estimation 77
3.5.2 Precision 78
3.5.3 Correlation: Standard Sample Size 79
3.5.4 Correlation: Large Sample Size 83
3.6 Discussion and Conclusion 85
3.7 Appendix 88
CONTENTS ix
Chapter 4 Actors versus Evaluators: Do They Treat Their Different Probabilities
Differently? 91
4.1 Introduction 91
4.2 Related Literature 94
4.3 Experiment: Method and Procedure 97
4.4 Results 101
4.4.1 Knowledge Ratings 101
4.4.2 Subjective Probabilities 102
4.4.3 Certainty Equivalents 104
4.4.4 A Decomposition Approach 105
4.4.5 Evaluations 112
4.5 Discussion and Conclusion 115
References 119
List of Tables
Table 2 1: Reliability (two tailed paired t tests and Pearson correlation coefficients) ..37
Table 2 2: Classification of utility functions (Trade off method) 38
Table 2 3: Parametric specifications 40
Table 2 4: Summary statistics for parameters of the utility function 41
Table 2 5: Elevation of decision weights: W+(A)vs. W(A) 43
Table 2 6: Tests of duality 46
Table 2 7: Summary statistics for choice based probabilities 48
Table 2 8: Decision weights vs. choice based probabilities 50
Table 2 9: Parameter estimates of the probability weighting function (median data) ... 54
Table 3 1: Simulation scenarios 76
Table 3 2: Precision of the estimation 78
Table 3 3: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. I, N = 41) 80
Table 3 4: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. II, N = 41) 82
Table 3 5: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. Ill, N = 41) 82
Table 3 6: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. I, N = 2000) 84
Table 3 7: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. II, N = 2000) ... 84
Table 3 8: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. Ill, N = 2000) .. 84
Table A3 1: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. IV, N = 41) ...88
Table A3 2: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. V, N = 41) .... 88
Table A3 3: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. VI, N = 41) ... 88
Table A3 4: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. IV, N = 2000) 89
Table A3 5: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. V, N = 2000) 89
Table A3 6: Correlation coefficients between parameter estimates (Sc. VI, N = 2000) 89
Table 4 1: Details ofthe experimental task .98
Table 4 2: Summary statistics for knowledge ratings 101
Table 4 3: Comparison of subjective probabilities across groups 103
Table 4 4: Comparison of certainty equivalents across groups 104
Table 4 5: Parameter estimates for w(.) (linear u(.)) 109
Table 4 6: Parameter estimates for w(.) (power «(.), a = 0.88) 111
Table 4 7: Summary statistics for evaluations 112
Table 4 8: Estimation results for evaluations 115
List of Figures
Figure 1 1: Probability weighting function ^QofPT 9
Figure 1 2: Probability weighting function w{.) of CPT 13
Figure 2 1: Event space 36
Figure 2 2: Utility functions (for mean values) 39
Figure 2 3: Mean decision weights 42
Figure 2 4: Empirical distributions of subadditivity conditions satisfied 44
Figure 2 5: Subadditivity of choice based probabilities 49
Figure 2 6: Mean decision weights as a function of choice based probability 52
Figure A2 1: Screenshotofa typical choice task 57
Figure 3 1: Scatterplot p(a,5) vs. p(a,d) foraE = 3 (top) and a,, = 10 (down) 81
Figure 4 1: Estimated probability transformation functions 110
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| dewey-raw | 519.542 |
| dewey-search | 519.542 |
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| dewey-tens | 510 - Mathematics |
| discipline | Mathematik |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:08:30Z |
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| spelling | Vossmann, Frank 1971- Verfasser (DE-588)13012396X aut Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty measurement and decomposition Frank Voßmann 2004 XXI, 129 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Mannheim, Univ., Diss., 2004 Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 s DE-188 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013214175&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Vossmann, Frank 1971- Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty measurement and decomposition Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4070864-0 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty measurement and decomposition |
| title_auth | Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty measurement and decomposition |
| title_exact_search | Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty measurement and decomposition |
| title_full | Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty measurement and decomposition Frank Voßmann |
| title_fullStr | Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty measurement and decomposition Frank Voßmann |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty measurement and decomposition Frank Voßmann |
| title_short | Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty |
| title_sort | decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty measurement and decomposition |
| title_sub | measurement and decomposition |
| topic | Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013214175&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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