Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Aachen
Shaker
2004
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Mitteilungen / Lehrstuhl und Institut für Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft
133 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Zugl.: Aachen, Techn. Hochsch., Diss., 2003. - Literaturverz.: S. 133 - 142 |
| Beschreibung: | XIII, 153 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 3832233709 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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CONTENTS
V
CONTENTS
ZUSAMENFASSUNG . I
ABSTRACT III
CONTENTS V
LIST OF FIGURES IX
LIST OF TABLES XII
NOTATION XIII
1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 UNCERTAINTY IN GROUNDWATER MODELLING. 1
1.2 PHILOSOPHY OF PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS. 2
1.3 MOTIVATION. 2
1.4 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES. 3
1.5 METHODOLOGY. 4
1.6 RESEARCH OUTLINE. 4
2 THEORY AND APPROACH OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS 7
2.1 INTRODUCTION. 7
2.2 TYPES OF UNCERTAINTY. 8
2.2.1 NATURAL UNCERTAINTY. 8
2.2.2 PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY. 9
2.2.3 MODEL UNCERTAINTY.'. 9
2.2.3.1 MODEL STRUCTURE. 9
2.2.3.2 MODEL CONCEPT . 9
2.2.3.3 MODEL RESOLUTION. 9
2.3 BASICS CONCEPTS. 10
2.3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES. 10
2.3.2 RELIABILITY OF ENGINEERING SYSTEM. 10
2.3.3 RELIABILITY INDEX. 11
2.4 ANALYTICAL METHODS OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS . 12
2.4.1 MEAN VALUE METHOD. 12
2.4.2 POINT ESTIMATE METHOD. 14
2.4.3 DIRECT INTEGRATION METHOD. 14
BIBLIOGRAFISCHE INFORMATIONEN
HTTP://D-NB.INFO/969097352
CONTENTS
VI
2.5 SAMPLING BASED METHODS. 15
2.5.1 MONTE CARLO SIMULATION. 15
2.5.1.1 DIRECT MONTE CARLO SIMULATION METHOD. 15
2.5.1.2 IMPORTANCE SAMPLING. 16
2.5.2 METHOD OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS. 17
2.5.2.1 HASOFER-LIND APPROACH. 18
2.5.2.2 RACKWITZ-FIESSLER APPROACH . 22
2.5.2.3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. 24
2.5.2.4 UNCERTAINTY IMPORTANCE FACTOR. 24
2.5.3 RESPONSE SURFACE APPROXIMATION. 25
2.6 DISCUSSION. 26
2.7 CONCLUSION . 27
3 DEVELOPMENT OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS IN GROUNDWATER MODELLING 29
3.1 GENERAL FRAMEWORK. 29
3.2 AUTOMATIC DIFFERENTIATION. 31
3.3 ZONATION APPROACH. 32
3.4 TRANSFORMATION OF VARIABLES . 33
3.5 OPTIMISATION APPROACH. 35
3.5.1 NON-CORRELATED NON-NORMAL VARIABLES . 37
3.5.2 CORRELATED NON-NORMAL VARIABLES. 38
3.6 COUPLING FORM WITH 3D GROUNDWATER MODEL. 38
3.7 CHECK AND VALIDATION OF FORM . 40
4 ANALYSIS OF MODEL VARIABLES 42
4.1 INTRODUCTION. 42
4.2 HYDRAULIC PROPERTIES . . . . 42
4.2.1 HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY. 43
4.2.1.1 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY. 43
4.2.2 RAINFALL. 48
4.2.2.1 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL . 48
4.2.3 GROUNDWATER RECHARGE. 52
4.2.3.1 METHODOLOGY OF RECHARGE ESTIMATION. 53
4.2.3.2 CUMULATIVE RAINFALL DEPARTURE (CRD). 54
4.2.3.3 EARTH-MODEL. 54
4.2.3.4 RESULTS OF RECHARGE ESTIMATION. 55
4.2.3.5 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF GROUNDWATER RECHARGE. 55
5 GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELLING 59
5.1 INTRODUCTION. 59
5.2 THE STUDY AREA. 59
5.3 GEOLOGY OF THE AREA. 60
5.3.1 TERTIARY FORMATION. 60
CONTENTS VII
5.3.2 QUATERNARY FORMATION. 60
5.3.2.1 MARINE KURKAR FORMATION. 60
5.3.2.2 CONTINENTAL KURKAR FORMATION. 63
5.3.3 QUATERNARY DEPOSITS. 63
5.3.3.1 SAND DUNES. 63
5.3.3.2 SAND LOESS AND GRAVEL BEDS . 63
5.3.3.3 ALLUVIAL DEPOSITS. 63
5.3.3.4 BEACH FORMATION . 63
5.4 AQUIFER SYSTEM. 63
5.5 OBJECTIVE OF MODELLING. 65
5.6 THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL. 65
5 6.1 BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. 67
5.6.2 AQUIFER HYDRAULIC PARAMETERS. 67
5.6.2.1 HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY. 67
5.6.2.2 SPECIFIC YIELD. 67
5.7 INFLOW COMPONENTS TO THE AQUIFER. 69
5.7.1 RECHARGE FROM RAINFALL. 69
5.7.2 WATER LEAKAGE FIOM THE WATER SYSTEM NETWORK . 69
5.7.3 LEAKAGE FROM WASTEWATER. 69
5.7.4 IRRIGATION RETURN FLOW. 70
5.7.5 LATERAL INFLOW TO THE AQUIFER. 70
5.8 AQUIFER STRESSES. 71
5.8.1 AGRICULTURAL ABSTRACTION. 71
5.8.2 MUNICIPAL ABSTRACTION. 71
5.8.3 SETTLEMENTS1 ABSTRACTION . 71
5.9 MODEL RESULTS. 72
5.9.1 RESULT OF STEADY STATE. 72
5.9.2 RESULT OF TRANSIENT SIMULATION. 72
6 PROBABILISTIC GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELLING 76
6.1 INTRODUCTION.'. 76
6.2 MODEL DESCRIPTION AND PROBLEM FORMULATION . 77
6.3 RESULTS OF FORM-MODFLOW SIMULATION . 77
6.3.1 EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY OF RANDOM VARIABLES. 79
6.3.2 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS . 82
6.3.2.1 UNIT SENSITIVITY. 82
6.3.2.2 RELATIVE SENSITIVITY. 84
6.4 FORM AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION. 86
6.5 PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION OF MODEL OUTPUT. 88
6.6 CONCLUSION. 90
7 PROBABILISTIC CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT MODELLING 92
7.1 THE STUDY AREA. 92
CONTENTS
VIII
7.2 IMPACT OF GROUNDWATER POLLUTION. 92
7.3 GROUNDWATER POLLUTION SOURCES. 94
7.4 MODEL DESCRIPTION . 96
7.4.1 CONCEPTUAL MODEL. 97
7.4.1.1 INITIAL AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS . 97
7.4.1.2 AQUIFER PROPERTIES. 97
7.5 FORM-CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT MODEL. 99
7.6 LIMIT STATE FUNCTION .100
7.7 RESULT OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS.100
7.8 UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS.102
7.9 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS.104
7.10 FORM-ADIFOR AND OTHER PROBABILISTIC METHODS.106
8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 111
8.1 SUMMARY.ILL
8.2 CONCLUSION .112
APPENDICES 114
A FIRST ORDER RELIABILITY CODE 114
A.L THE MAIN CODE.114
A. 2 CONNECTION SUBROUTINE.114
A. 2.1 CORRELATION SUBROUTINE.114
B ESTIMATION OF RECHARGE 117
B. L INTRODUCTION.117
B.2 CUMULATIVE RAINFALL DEPARTURE METHOD (CRD).117
B. 2.1 GROUNDWATER BALANCE.118
B.2.2 RECHARGE CALCULATION BY (CRD).118
B.3 EARTH MODEL .119
BIBLIOGRAPHY
124 |
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| spelling | Baalousha, Husam Musa 1972- Verfasser (DE-588)128379464 aut Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling Husam Musa Baalousha Aachen Shaker 2004 XIII, 153 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Mitteilungen / Lehrstuhl und Institut für Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft 133 Zugl.: Aachen, Techn. Hochsch., Diss., 2003. - Literaturverz.: S. 133 - 142 Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 gnd rswk-swf Grundwasser (DE-588)4022369-3 gnd rswk-swf Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Grundwasser (DE-588)4022369-3 s Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s DE-604 Lehrstuhl und Institut für Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft Mitteilungen 133 (DE-604)BV011041685 133 DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013019318&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Baalousha, Husam Musa 1972- Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 gnd Grundwasser (DE-588)4022369-3 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4057633-4 (DE-588)4022369-3 (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling |
| title_auth | Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling |
| title_exact_search | Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling |
| title_full | Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling Husam Musa Baalousha |
| title_fullStr | Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling Husam Musa Baalousha |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling Husam Musa Baalousha |
| title_short | Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling |
| title_sort | risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater modelling |
| topic | Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 gnd Grundwasser (DE-588)4022369-3 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Stochastisches Modell Grundwasser Risikoanalyse Hochschulschrift |
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