The end of world population growth in the 21st century: new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
London [u.a.]
Earthscan
2004
|
| Series: | Population and sustainable development series
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 341 S. Ill. |
| ISBN: | 1844070891 1844070999 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
List of Acronyms ix
1 Introduction
Wolfgang Lutz and Warren C. Sanderson 1
1.1 Contrasting Perceptions of the Demographic Future:
From Population Explosion to Gray Dawn 3
1.2 The Continuing Demographic Transition 6
1.3 Antecedents 9
1.4 Structure of the Volume 12
2 The End of World Population Growth
Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C. Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov 17
2.1 Why Do We Need New Forecasts? 18
2.2 Our Approach to Population Forecasting 20
2.3 Summary of Arguments and Specific Assumptions 24
2.4 The Future Population of the World and
Its Uncertainty 38
2.5 The Population of World Regions and
Their Uncertainties 41
2.6 Regional Population Shares 49
2.7 Comparison with Other World Population Forecasts 52
Postscript: The Latest UN Long Range Projections 58
2.8 Conclusions 60
Appendix 2.1: Definition of World Regions 63
Appendix 2.2: Assumed Matrix of Inter regional Migration Flows ... 67
Appendix 2.3: Methods 68
vi Contents
3 Applications of Probabilistic Population Forecasting
Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Wolfgang Lutz,
and Brian C. O Neill 85
3.1 Massive Population Aging 86
3.2 Conditional Probabilistic Forecasting 105
3.3 Conditional Probabilistic Forecasts with
Future Jump Off Dates 109
3.4 Conclusions 119
4 Future Human Capital: Population Projections by Level
of Education
Anne Goujon and Wolfgang Lutz 121
4.1 The Multistate Approach 122
4.2 Data on Education 126
4.3 Regional Education Levels in 2000 126
4.4 Scenarios 130
Appendix 4.1: Sources of Data and Methods of Estimation 142
Appendix 4.2: Results of the Projections 145
5 Literate Life Expectancy: Charting the Progress in Human
Development
Wolfgang Lutz and Anne Goujon 159
5.1 A Clear and Meaningful Indicator of Social
Development 160
5.2 What Does Literate Life Expectancy Represent? 162
5.3 Calculations with Empirical Data 164
5.4 Trends in Literate Life Expectancy since 1970 165
5.5 Projections of Literate Life Expectancy to 2030 175
5.6 Conclusions 179
Appendix 5.1: Data Sources, Differences in Country Rankings,
and Comparison of No Education and Illiterate Categories . . 181
6 Population Environment Development Agriculture Interactions in
Africa: A Case Study on Ethiopia
Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, Paulina K. Makinwa Adebusoye,
and Georges Renters 187
6.1 Background 187
6.2 The Structure of the PEDA Model 191
6.3 PEDA Projections for Ethiopia 200
6.4 Conclusions 213
Appendix 6.1: Model and Parameter Specifications 214
Contents vii
7 Interactions between Education and HIV: Demographic
Examples from Botswana
Warren C. Sanderson 227
7.1 Introduction 227
7.2 Some Tidbits of Evidence 231
7.3 Overview of the Methodology 234
7.4 Examples from Botswana 238
7.5 Previous Findings 247
7.6 Conclusions 252
Appendix 7.1: Transition Rates between States 254
Appendix 7.2: The Prevalence Rate Data and Their Correction 260
8 China s Future Urban and Rural Population by Level of Education
Gui Ying Cao and Wolfgang Lutz 265
8.1 Introduction 265
8.2 Salient Demographic Features in
Contemporary China 266
8.3 Alternative Scenarios for China s Future 275
8.4 Conclusions 280
9 Population, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Climate Change
Brian C. O Neill, F. Landis MacKellar, and Wolfgang Lutz 283
9.1 Introduction 283
9.2 Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 284
9.3 Population and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 290
9.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications 309
10 Conceptualizing Population in Sustainable Development:
From Population Stabilization to Population Balance
Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C. Sanderson, and Brian C. O Neill 315
10.1 Changing Population Policy Rationales 316
10.2 Population Balance 323
10.3 A Highly Simplified, Quantitative Population
Balance Model 325
10.4 Conclusions 331
Index 335
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| spelling | The end of world population growth in the 21st century new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development ed. by Wolfgang Lutz ... London [u.a.] Earthscan 2004 X, 341 S. Ill. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Population and sustainable development series Prognose gnd rswk-swf 21e siècle rasuqam Bevolkingsontwikkeling gtt Changement démographique rasuqam Croissance démographique rasuqam Ecologische aspecten gtt Milieuvraagstuk gtt Prévision démographique Prévision démographique rasuqam Transition démographique Vingt et unième siècle - Prévisions Demographic transition Population forecasting Twenty-first century Forecasts Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Statistiques (Descripteur de forme) rasuqam Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 s Prognose z DE-604 Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 s DE-188 Lutz, Wolfgang Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012770215&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | The end of world population growth in the 21st century new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development 21e siècle rasuqam Bevolkingsontwikkeling gtt Changement démographique rasuqam Croissance démographique rasuqam Ecologische aspecten gtt Milieuvraagstuk gtt Prévision démographique Prévision démographique rasuqam Transition démographique Vingt et unième siècle - Prévisions Demographic transition Population forecasting Twenty-first century Forecasts Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd |
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| title | The end of world population growth in the 21st century new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development |
| title_auth | The end of world population growth in the 21st century new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development |
| title_exact_search | The end of world population growth in the 21st century new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development |
| title_full | The end of world population growth in the 21st century new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development ed. by Wolfgang Lutz ... |
| title_fullStr | The end of world population growth in the 21st century new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development ed. by Wolfgang Lutz ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | The end of world population growth in the 21st century new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development ed. by Wolfgang Lutz ... |
| title_short | The end of world population growth in the 21st century |
| title_sort | the end of world population growth in the 21st century new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development |
| title_sub | new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development |
| topic | 21e siècle rasuqam Bevolkingsontwikkeling gtt Changement démographique rasuqam Croissance démographique rasuqam Ecologische aspecten gtt Milieuvraagstuk gtt Prévision démographique Prévision démographique rasuqam Transition démographique Vingt et unième siècle - Prévisions Demographic transition Population forecasting Twenty-first century Forecasts Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | 21e siècle Bevolkingsontwikkeling Changement démographique Croissance démographique Ecologische aspecten Milieuvraagstuk Prévision démographique Transition démographique Vingt et unième siècle - Prévisions Demographic transition Population forecasting Twenty-first century Forecasts Weltbevölkerung Bevölkerungswachstum Aufsatzsammlung Statistiques (Descripteur de forme) |
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