Have national business cycles become more synchronized?:
In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of t...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2003
|
| Schriftenreihe: | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series
10130 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then considered a number of possible explanations for the observed pattern of increased synchronization. We first ascertained the role of shocks demarcated into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and global (common). Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks are the dominant influence across all regimes. The increasing importance of global shocks we posit reflects the forces of globalization, especially the integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. Our evidence shows a modest role for increasing bilateral trade in explaining synchronization, with stronger evidence for regional integration in Europe and North America but the evidence for the role of financial integration proxied by the removal of capital controls is inconclusive. |
| Beschreibung: | 62 S. graph. Darst. |
Internformat
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| 100 | 1 | |a Bordo, Michael D. |d 1942- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)124743935 |4 aut | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |v 10130 | |
| 520 | 3 | |a In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then considered a number of possible explanations for the observed pattern of increased synchronization. We first ascertained the role of shocks demarcated into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and global (common). Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks are the dominant influence across all regimes. The increasing importance of global shocks we posit reflects the forces of globalization, especially the integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. Our evidence shows a modest role for increasing bilateral trade in explaining synchronization, with stronger evidence for regional integration in Europe and North America but the evidence for the role of financial integration proxied by the removal of capital controls is inconclusive. | |
| 648 | 4 | |a 1880-2001 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Konjunkturzusammenhang / Wechselkurssystem / Schock / Nordamerika / Europa / Industriestaaten | |
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| 830 | 0 | |a National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |v 10130 |w (DE-604)BV002801238 |9 10130 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| author | Bordo, Michael D. 1942- Helbling, Thomas |
| author_GND | (DE-588)124743935 (DE-588)128972068 |
| author_facet | Bordo, Michael D. 1942- Helbling, Thomas |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Bordo, Michael D. 1942- |
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| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV019285790 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)249197286 (DE-599)BVBBV019285790 |
| era | 1880-2001 |
| era_facet | 1880-2001 |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV019285790 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T19:43:34Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-012037859 |
| oclc_num | 249197286 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-703 DE-521 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| owner_facet | DE-703 DE-521 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | 62 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2003 |
| publishDateSearch | 2003 |
| publishDateSort | 2003 |
| publisher | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| record_format | marc |
| series | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| series2 | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| spelling | Bordo, Michael D. 1942- Verfasser (DE-588)124743935 aut Have national business cycles become more synchronized? Michael D. Bordo ; Thomas Helbling Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2003 62 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 10130 In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then considered a number of possible explanations for the observed pattern of increased synchronization. We first ascertained the role of shocks demarcated into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and global (common). Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks are the dominant influence across all regimes. The increasing importance of global shocks we posit reflects the forces of globalization, especially the integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. Our evidence shows a modest role for increasing bilateral trade in explaining synchronization, with stronger evidence for regional integration in Europe and North America but the evidence for the role of financial integration proxied by the removal of capital controls is inconclusive. 1880-2001 Konjunkturzusammenhang / Wechselkurssystem / Schock / Nordamerika / Europa / Industriestaaten Helbling, Thomas Verfasser (DE-588)128972068 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 10130 (DE-604)BV002801238 10130 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w10130.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Bordo, Michael D. 1942- Helbling, Thomas Have national business cycles become more synchronized? National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series Konjunkturzusammenhang / Wechselkurssystem / Schock / Nordamerika / Europa / Industriestaaten |
| title | Have national business cycles become more synchronized? |
| title_auth | Have national business cycles become more synchronized? |
| title_exact_search | Have national business cycles become more synchronized? |
| title_full | Have national business cycles become more synchronized? Michael D. Bordo ; Thomas Helbling |
| title_fullStr | Have national business cycles become more synchronized? Michael D. Bordo ; Thomas Helbling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Have national business cycles become more synchronized? Michael D. Bordo ; Thomas Helbling |
| title_short | Have national business cycles become more synchronized? |
| title_sort | have national business cycles become more synchronized |
| topic | Konjunkturzusammenhang / Wechselkurssystem / Schock / Nordamerika / Europa / Industriestaaten |
| topic_facet | Konjunkturzusammenhang / Wechselkurssystem / Schock / Nordamerika / Europa / Industriestaaten |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w10130.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bordomichaeld havenationalbusinesscyclesbecomemoresynchronized AT helblingthomas havenationalbusinesscyclesbecomemoresynchronized |