Forecasting product liability claims: epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Durham, NC [u.a.]
Springer
2005
|
| Series: | Statistics for biology and health
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references and index. - Erscheint: August 2003 |
| Physical Description: | XXIX, 394 S. |
| ISBN: | 0387949879 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Forecasting product liability claims |b epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case |c Eric Stallard, Kenneth G. Manton, Joel E. Cohen |
| 264 | 1 | |a Durham, NC [u.a.] |b Springer |c 2005 | |
| 300 | |a XXIX, 394 S. | ||
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| 490 | 0 | |a Statistics for biology and health | |
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index. - Erscheint: August 2003 | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Asbestose - Épidémiologie - Modèles mathématiques |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Claims |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Productaansprakelijkheid |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Prognoses |2 gtt | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Asbestosis |x Epidemiology |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Lungs |x Cancer |x Epidemiology |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Products liability |x Asbestos |z United States |x Mathematical models | |
| 651 | 4 | |a USA | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Manton, Kenneth G. |d 1947- |e Sonstige |0 (DE-588)128703849 |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cohen, Joel E. |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
1 Overview 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Asbestos and Health 1
1.3 History of Asbestos 4
1.4 Epidemiologies! Discovery 5
1.5 Johns Manville Corporation 6
1.6 Manville Trust 6
1.7 Manville Trust Litigation 7
1.8 Project History 9
1.9 Results 11
1.10 Organization of Monograph 14
2 Epidemiology of Asbestos Related Diseases 17
2.1 Introduction 17
2.2 Design Issues in Studying Occupational Exposure 18
2.2.1 Measures of Risk 19
2.2.2 Design Issues 22
2.3 Studies of Health Risks of Occupational Exposures 24
2.3.1 Health Risks of a Cohort of Insulation Workers
Occupationally Exposed to Asbestos 25
2.3.2 A Case Control Study of Asbestos Risks in the United
States and Canada 35
2.3.3 Short Term Amosite Exposure Among Factory
Workers in New Jersey 37
2.3.4 Effects of Chrysotile Exposure Among Miners and
Millers in Quebec 38
2.3.5 Mesothelioma Risks Among World War II Shipyard
Workers 40
2.3.6 Effects of Asbestos Exposure Among a Cohort of
Retired Factory Workers 42
xxvi Contents
2.4 Increases in Disease Risk Associated with Exposure to
Asbestos 44
2.5 Effects of Fiber Type on Disease Risks 52
2.6 Simian Virus 40 and Mesothelioma 57
3 Forecasts Based on Direct Estimates of Exposure 61
3.1 Introduction 61
3.2 Selikoff s Study: General Description 61
3.2.1 Data 61
3.2.2 Model and Methods 62
3.3 Selikoff s Six Tasks 62
3.3.1 Task 1: Identify the Industries and Occupations
Where Asbestos Exposure Took Place 63
3.3.2 Task 2: Estimate the Number, Timing, and Duration
of Employment of Exposed Workers 67
3.3.3 Task 3: Estimate Risk Differentials Among
Occupations and Industries 71
3.3.4 Task 4: Estimate Dose Response Models for Cancer
Risks 74
3.3.5 Task 5: Project Future Asbestos Related Cancer
Mortality 76
3.3.6 Task 6: Estimate and Project Deaths Due to
Asbestosis 76
3.4 Sensitivity of Selikoff s Projections 79
3.5 Alternative Projections of Health Implications 81
4 Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of Exposure 89
4.1 Introduction 89
4.2 Background 89
4.3 Walker s Study: General Description 93
4.3.1 Data 93
4.3.2 Model and Methods 94
4.4 Walker s Five Tasks 94
4.4.1 Task 1: Determine the Effective Number of Past
Asbestos Workers 95
4.4.2 Task 2: Project Mesothelioma Incidence 112
4.4.3 Task 3: Project Lung Cancer Incidence 115
4.4.4 Task 4: Estimate Current and Future Asbestosis
Prevalence 119
4.4.5 Task 5: Estimate the Amount of Asbestos Related
Disease Likely to Occur in Women 124
4.5 Asbestos Related Disease Projections by Other Authors 125
4.6 Conclusions 127
Contents xxvii
5 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates 129
5.1 Introduction 129
5.2 Qualitative Sources of Uncertainty in Walker s Projections .... 129
5.2.1 Uncertainties in Either Direction 130
5.2.2 Why Walker s Projections May Be Too Low 132
5.2.3 Why Walker s Projections May Be Too High 133
5.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Walker s Projections 134
5.3.1 Results for Single Parameters 138
5.3.2 Results for All Variables Jointly 139
5.3.3 Summary of Uncertainty Results 142
5.4 Further Sensitivity Analysis of Walker s Mesothelioma
Projections 143
5.4.1 Projection Methodology 145
5.4.2 Alternative Scenarios 147
5.4.3 Results 149
5.5 Conclusions 152
6 Updated Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of
Exposure 155
6.1 Introduction 155
6.2 Factors Considered 155
6.3 Assumptions 160
6.4 First Stage Calibration: Overview 165
6.5 Data Preparation 169
6.5.1 Step 1: Nonmesothelioma Mortality Rates 169
6.5.2 Step 2: National Estimates of Mesothelioma Incidence
Counts 172
6.5.3 Step 3: Distribution of Age and Date at Start
of Asbestos Exposure for Mesothelioma Incidence
Among Manville Trust Claimants 174
6.5.4 Step 4: Normalization of Exposure 189
6.5.5 Step 5: Intensity of Exposure 190
6.6 Model Estimation 191
6.6.1 Step 6: Stratification of National Estimates of
Mesothelioma Incidence Counts, by Level of
Asbestos Exposure 191
6.6.2 Step 7: Estimation of the IWE Population
Exposed to Asbestos Prior to 1975 by Level of
Asbestos Exposure 192
6.6.3 Step 8: Adjustments to Exposure During 1955 1974,
by Level of Asbestos Exposure 198
6.6.4 Step 9: Adjustments to Reflect Improvements in the
Workplace During 1960 1974, by Level of Asbestos
Exposure 198
xxviii Contents
6.6.5 Step 10: Renormalization by Level of
Asbestos Exposure 199
6.7 Model Projection 200
6.7.1 Step 11: Forward Projection of the At Risk IWE
Population by Level of Asbestos Exposure 202
6.7.2 Step 12: Forward Projection of Mesothelioma
Incidence by Level of Asbestos Exposure 202
6.8 Nonparametric Hazard Modeling of Claim Filing Rates:
CHR Model 208
6.8.1 Step 1: Distribution of 1990 1994 Claims by Attained
Age, TSFE, and Disease/Injury 208
6.8.2 Step 2: Estimation of Claim Hazard Rates by Attained
Age, TSFE, and Disease/Injury 209
6.8.3 Step 3: Claim Projections 213
7 Uncertainty in Updated Forecasts 217
7.1 Introduction 217
7.2 Analysis SI: Constant Age Specific Claim Runoff 222
7.3 Analysis S2: Ratio Estimation of Nine Asbestos Related
Diseases PTS Model 223
7.4 Analysis S3: Parametric Claim Hazard Rate Model 224
7.5 Analysis S4: Mesothelioma Incidence Function 229
7.5.1 Sensitivity to the b Parameter 232
7.5.2 Sensitivity to the k Parameter 233
7.6 Analysis S5: Adjustments to the IWE Exposed Population.... 235
7.7 Analysis S6: National Mesothelioma Incidence Counts 236
7.8 Analysis S7: Nonmesothelioma Mortality Rates 237
7.9 Analysis S8: Excess Mortality Among Insulation Workers 239
7.10 Analysis S9: Decline in Claim Filing Rates 240
7.11 Overall Sensitivity: Analyses S1 S9 241
7.12 Analysis S10: Manville Trust Calibrations 247
7.13 Conclusions 249
8 Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model 251
8.1 Introduction 251
8.2 Model Overview 252
8.2.1 First Stage 252
8.2.2 Second Stage 254
8.3 Data Preparation 255
8.3.1 Step 1: Nonmesothelioma Mortality Rates 255
8.3.2 Step 2: Occupation Groups with Significant Asbestos
Exposure 256
8.3.3 Step 3: Distribution of Mesothelioma Claim Counts
1990 1994 by Attained Age at the Time of Claim and
TSFE 257
Contents xxix
8.3.4 Step 4: Distribution of Mesothelioma Claim Counts
by Age at Start of Exposure and Date of First
Exposure 270
8.3.5 Step 5: Normalization of Exposure 273
8.4 Model Estimation 273
8.4.1 Step 6: Estimation of the OSHA Model for
Mesothelioma 273
8.4.2 Step 7: Estimation of the Population Exposed to
Asbestos Prior to 1975 284
8.5 Model Projection 288
8.5.1 Step 8: First Stage Calibration 288
8.5.2 Step 9: Forward Projection of Mesothelioma Mortality . 288
8.6 Second Stage: CHR Forecasting Model 290
8.6.1 Step 1: Distribution of Disease Specific Claim Counts
for 1990 1994 by Attained Age and TSFE 290
8.6.2 Step 2: Second Stage Calibration 290
8.6.3 Step 3: At Risk Population Projections 294
8.6.4 Step 4: Claim Projections 298
8.7 Conclusions 308
9 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model 311
9.1 Introduction 311
9.2 Impact of Claim Filing Rules 313
9.3 Baseline Model: SDIS Criterion 314
9.4 Analysis SI: Validated Disease 315
9.5 Analysis S2: Multiple Diseases 320
9.6 Analysis S3: CHR Smoothing 325
9.7 Analysis S4: Exposure Smoothing 327
9.8 Analysis S5: Weibull k Parameter 328
9.9 Analysis S6: Relative Risks of Mesothelioma 330
9.10 Analysis S7: Duration of Exposure 332
9.11 Overall Sensitivity: Analyses S1 S7 334
9.12 Conclusions 336
10 Conclusions and Implications 345
10.1 Introduction 345
10.2 Data 347
10.3 Comparisons of Original and Updated Data 350
10.4 Comparisons of Actual and Projected Numbers of Claims 354
10.5 Health and Vital Statistics Data. 1990 1999 359
10.6 Conclusions 374
References 377
Index 389
|
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| spelling | Stallard, Eric Verfasser aut Forecasting product liability claims epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case Eric Stallard, Kenneth G. Manton, Joel E. Cohen Durham, NC [u.a.] Springer 2005 XXIX, 394 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Statistics for biology and health Includes bibliographical references and index. - Erscheint: August 2003 Asbest gtt Asbestose - Épidémiologie - Modèles mathématiques ram Claims gtt Productaansprakelijkheid gtt Prognoses gtt Responsabilité du fait des produits - Amiante - États-Unis - Modèles mathématiques ram Wiskundige modellen gtt Mathematisches Modell Asbestosis Epidemiology Mathematical models Lungs Cancer Epidemiology Mathematical models Products liability Asbestos United States Mathematical models USA Manton, Kenneth G. 1947- Sonstige (DE-588)128703849 oth Cohen, Joel E. Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=010269164&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Stallard, Eric Forecasting product liability claims epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case Asbest gtt Asbestose - Épidémiologie - Modèles mathématiques ram Claims gtt Productaansprakelijkheid gtt Prognoses gtt Responsabilité du fait des produits - Amiante - États-Unis - Modèles mathématiques ram Wiskundige modellen gtt Mathematisches Modell Asbestosis Epidemiology Mathematical models Lungs Cancer Epidemiology Mathematical models Products liability Asbestos United States Mathematical models |
| title | Forecasting product liability claims epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case |
| title_auth | Forecasting product liability claims epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case |
| title_exact_search | Forecasting product liability claims epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case |
| title_full | Forecasting product liability claims epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case Eric Stallard, Kenneth G. Manton, Joel E. Cohen |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting product liability claims epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case Eric Stallard, Kenneth G. Manton, Joel E. Cohen |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting product liability claims epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case Eric Stallard, Kenneth G. Manton, Joel E. Cohen |
| title_short | Forecasting product liability claims |
| title_sort | forecasting product liability claims epidemiology and modeling in the manville asbestos case |
| title_sub | epidemiology and modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case |
| topic | Asbest gtt Asbestose - Épidémiologie - Modèles mathématiques ram Claims gtt Productaansprakelijkheid gtt Prognoses gtt Responsabilité du fait des produits - Amiante - États-Unis - Modèles mathématiques ram Wiskundige modellen gtt Mathematisches Modell Asbestosis Epidemiology Mathematical models Lungs Cancer Epidemiology Mathematical models Products liability Asbestos United States Mathematical models |
| topic_facet | Asbest Asbestose - Épidémiologie - Modèles mathématiques Claims Productaansprakelijkheid Prognoses Responsabilité du fait des produits - Amiante - États-Unis - Modèles mathématiques Wiskundige modellen Mathematisches Modell Asbestosis Epidemiology Mathematical models Lungs Cancer Epidemiology Mathematical models Products liability Asbestos United States Mathematical models USA |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=010269164&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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