The money supply process and monetary policy in China:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frankfurt am Main ; Berlin ; Bern ; Bruxelles ; New York ; Oxfor
Lang
2002
|
| Series: | Europäische Hochschulschriften
Reihe 5, Volks- und Betriebswirtschaft ; 2931 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XV, 215 S. 21 cm |
| ISBN: | 3631502168 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The money supply process and monetary policy in China |c Yanfen Huang |
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| 300 | |a XV, 215 S. |b 21 cm | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a Europäische Hochschulschriften : Reihe 5, Volks- und Betriebswirtschaft |v 2931 | |
| 502 | |a Zugl.: Essen, Univ., Diss., 2002 | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaft | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Monetary policy |z China | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | VII Contents
List of Figures XI
List of Tables XIII
Abbreviations XV
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.1.1 The increasingly significant role of monetary policy in China s
macroeconomic management 1
1.1.2 The poor performance of monetary policy 4
1.2. Current literature 6
1.3 The structure of the dissertation 7
2. Institutional Conditions of Monetary Policy in China 9
2.1 Institutional reform of China s financial sector 9
2.1.1 Development of China s financial sector: an overview 9
2.1.1.1 China s banking system before the economic reform 10
2.1.1.2 The three stages of the financial sector reform in China 11
2.1.1.3 The structure of the Chinese banking sector 16
2.1.2 The institutional characteristics of the central banking system 19
2.1.2.1 The PBC s non independent and non autonomous feature 19
2.1.2.2 Poor banking supervision 21
2.1.3 The problems of the banking system 22
2.1.3.1 The dominance of state ownership and lack of operational
independence in the banking sector 23
2.1.3.2 Obligations to the SOEs and moral hazard 24
2.1.3.3 Lack of competition 25
2.2 Development of China s financial markets 26
2.2.1 The development of capital markets 27
2.2.1.1 The stock markets 27
2.2.1.2 The bond markets 29
VIII
2.2.2 The development of money markets 34
2.2.2.1 The interbank money market 34
2.2.2.2 The repurchase market for securities 38
2.2.2.3 The commercial bin market 39
2.2.2.4 The foreign exchange market 41
2.2.3. The characteristics of China s financial market development 43
2.3 Summary 47
3. Study of the Money Supply Process in the Framework of Monetary Base and
Money Multiplier 48
3.1 The monetary base 49
3.1.1 The PBC s balance sheet and the monetary base 49
3.1.1.1 The PBC s balance sheet 49
3.1.1.2 The monetary base and its components SO
3.1.2 Factors that affect the monetary base 52
3.1.2.1 Claims on banking institutions (CB) S3
3.1.2.2 Net foreign assets (NFA) 56
3.1.2.3 Net claims on government (NCG) 58
3.1.2.4 Claims on other sectors (CO) 58
3.2 Monetary base and monetary aggregate: The mechanistic multiplier process 60
3.2.1 The concept of the money multiplier 60
3.2.2 Factors that affect the money multiplier 61
3.2.2.1 Determinants of the ratio of currency to bank deposits (c) 61
3.2.2.2 Determinants of the excess reserve ratio (r2) 65
3.2.2.3 Determinants of the ratio of deposits of other sectors to bank
deposits (r3) 66
3.2.3 Empirical analysis of the stability of the money multiplier 68
3.2.3.1 The data 69
3.2.3.2. Unit root test 71
3.2.3.3 The long run stable relation between the monetary base and the two
monetary aggregates Mj and Afc 73
IX
4. Instruments of Monetary Policy in China 80
4.1 The credit plan 80
4.1.1 The evolution of the credit plan 80
4.1.2 The formulation and implementation ofthe credit plan 83
4.1.3 The ineffectiveness ofthe credit plan 84
4.2 Indirect monetary policy instruments and their effectiveness 90
4.2.1 PBC lending to banking institutions 91
4.2.1.1 The evolution of PBC lending to banking institutions 91
4.2.1.2 The ineffectiveness of PBC lending to banking institutions 93
4.2.2 The rediscount policy 96
4.2.3 The limited role of reserve requirements 99
4.2.3.1 The characteristics ofthe required reserve arrangement 99
4.2.3.2 The limited role of reserve requirements 101
4.2.4 Market based operations 103
4.2.4.1 The emergence of market based operations 103
4.2.4.2 The minor role of market based operations 103
4.3 Interest rate management in China 105
4.3.1 The evolution of the interest rate system 105
4.3.2 General principles ofthe PBC s interest rate policy 110
4.3.2.1 General principles ofthe PBC s interest rate setting 110
4.3.2.2 General principles ofthe PBC s interest rate adjustment 112
4.3.3 Problems of the current administered interest rate system 113
4.4 Concluding remarks 116
5. Explanation of the Money Supply Process Using the Credit Market Theory 117
S. 1 The credit market theory of the money supply 118
5.1.1 The macroeconomic market for credit and money 118
5.1.2 The market for central bank money 123
5.1.3 The complete model 124
5.2 Explanation ofthe money supply process using credit market theory 127
5.2.1 The behavioural functions of non banks 128
5.2.2 The behavioural functions of banks 133
5.2.3 The market for central bank money 139
X
5.2.4 The complete money supply model 141
5.2.5 Effects of the quasi endogeneity of money supply on monetary policy 145
5.2.5.1 The PBC s passivity to demand and money multiplier shocks 145
5.2.5.2 Non existence of well functioning monetary transmission
mechanisms 148
5.3 Summary 151
6. Designing the Strategy and Operating Procedure for Monetary Policy in China 153
6.1 Intermediate target 154
6.1.1 Theoretical analysis about various suggested intermediate targets 156
6.1.1.1 Monetary aggregates as an intermediate target 156
6.1.1.2. Interest rates as an intermediate target 159
6.1.1.3 Nominal GDP as an intermediate target 161
6.1.1.4 Exchange rate as an intermediate target 162
6.1.1.5 The concept of inflation targeting 164
6.1.2 Choosing the intermediate target in the current Chinese transition period 166
6.1.2.1 Analysis of inflation targeting in the Chinese transition period 169
6.1.2.2 Analysis of monetary targeting in the Chinese transition period 172
6.2 Operating target 175
6.3 Concluding remarks 181
7. Conclusion and Policy Issues 182
7.1 Conclusion: Interest rate liberalisation is an essential prerequisite for the
successful conduct of monetary policy 182
7.2 The necessary preconditions, obstacles and reform tactics in interest rate
liberalisation 184
7.3 Some issues for future monetary policy research 187
Appendices 190
Appendix I: Law of the People s Bank of China 190
Appendix II: The data 199
References 201
XI List of Figures
Figure 1.1: The Chinese government s revenue as a share of GDP (%) 2
Figure 1.2: The ratio of fiscal grants and banking credits in total fixed capital
investment in China: 1981 1998 (%) 3
Figure 1.3: Total banking assets/GDP ratio and M2/GDP ratio: 1979 1998 (%) 4
Figure 1.4: Inflation and annual growth rate performance: 1984 1998 (%) 5
Figure 1.5: Annual growth of monetary aggregates (%) 5
Figure 2.1: Structure of the Chinese financial sector in 1998 17
Figure 2.2: The development of the government bonds 31
Figure 3.1: Currency ratio c in China from 1985 to 1998 63
Figure 3.2: Ratioof deposits of other sectors (r,) 67
Figure 3.3: The movements of the adjusted monetary base B°, Mi and M2 in China:
1985.02 1997.04 (in RMB billion yuan) 70
Figure 3.4: The behaviour of the money multipliers in China: 1985.02 1997.04 70
Figure 3.5: The movement of LM2,LMt and LSf: 1985.02 1997.04 71
Figure 5.1: The credit and money market 122
Figure 5.2: The central bank s control options 123
Figure 5.3: The complete money supply model 126
Figure 5.4: The credit demand function of the state non bank sector in China 131
Figure 5.5: The total credit/money demand function in China 132
Figure 5.6: The credit/money supply in China 135
Figure 5.7: The credit and money market under a credit quota 138
Figure 5.8: The PBC s extension of high powered money 140
Figure 5.9: The complete money supply model in China 142
Figure 5.10: The relationship between the central bank rate and the lending rate (% per
annum) 144
Figure 5.11: Money demand shock 145
Figure 5.12: Money multiplier shock 146
Figure 6.1: Process of conducting monetary policy 153
Figure 6.2: Monetary targeting 157
XIII
List of Tables
Table 2.1: The institutions of China s banking sectors in 1998 16
Table 2.2: The structure of the different deposit money banks in 1998 18
Table 2.3: The return on assets (pre tax) of the four state banks in China (%) 25
Table 2.4: The development of China s stock market 1991 1998 27
Table 2.5: The size of the stock markets in selected east south Asian countries in
1997 28
Table 2.6: Comparison of the bond market size and the stock market size 29
Table 2.7: Issuance of domestic bonds in 1998 30
Table 2.8: The maturity structure of government bonds from 1981 to 1996 32
Table 2.9: Maturity structure of interbank lending in 1997 and 1998 (%) 37
Table 2.10: Transaction volumes of interbank market (1995 1998) 38
Table 2.11: Acceptance and (re)discounting of bills in China 41
Table 2.12: Structure of financial assets in China 44
Table 2.13: Indirect direct financing 45
Table 3.1: Balance sheet of the PBC (1998) 49
Table 3.2: The simplified balance sheet of the PBC 51
Table 3.3: Sources of and uses for the monetary base 52
Table 3.4: Development of the four sources of the monetary base from 1985 to 1998 53
Table 3.5: The level of excess reserves in China (r2) 66
Table 3.6: Integration tests for the monetary aggregates LM2, LMi and the monetary
base LBa 73
Table 3.7: t statistics of coefficients for the quadratic trends t3 in the DF or ADF test 76
Table 3.8: The likelihood ratio test statistics of Johansen method 76
Table 3.9: Results oftheOLS regressions and unit root tests of the residuals 77
Table 3.10: The error correction models 79
Table4.1: The scope of the credit plan: 1984 1997 82
Table 4.2: Comparison of actual credit supply and planned credit supply 84
Table 4.3: Credit share of the state owned commercial banks 88
Table 4.4: PBC lending to NBFIs as a percentage of all PBC lending 92
Table 4.5: PBC lending to the policy banks as a percentage of all PBC lending 94
Table 4.6: Borrowing and lending of the state owned commercial banks, 1986 1995 95
Table 4.7: PBC lending, rediscount, discount and lending rates of financial institutions
during 1996 1998 (% per Annum) 97
Table 4.8: Adjustment of the banking institutions lending rates and the interest rates
of required and excess reserves: 1985 1998 (% per annum) 100
Table 4.9: Adjustment of interest rates 106
Table 4.10: 3 month PBC lending rate and 3 month interbank lending rate (1996 1998) 114
Table 5.1: A simplified consolidated balance sheet ofthe banking system 119
Table 5.2: A simplified central bank balance sheet 121
Table 6.1: The size of China s external sector 1985 1998 168
Table 6.2: Monetary targeting in ninth Five Year Plan: planned vs. actual 175
Table 6.3: Choice of an operating target 177
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| geographic_facet | China Economic conditions 1976-2000 China |
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| series2 | Europäische Hochschulschriften : Reihe 5, Volks- und Betriebswirtschaft |
| spelling | Huang, Yanfen Verfasser aut The money supply process and monetary policy in China Yanfen Huang Frankfurt am Main ; Berlin ; Bern ; Bruxelles ; New York ; Oxfor Lang 2002 XV, 215 S. 21 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Europäische Hochschulschriften : Reihe 5, Volks- und Betriebswirtschaft 2931 Zugl.: Essen, Univ., Diss., 2002 Wirtschaft Monetary policy China Money supply China Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd rswk-swf Geldversorgung (DE-588)4156431-5 gnd rswk-swf Geldnachfragefunktion (DE-588)4128445-8 gnd rswk-swf Geldmengensteuerung (DE-588)4113692-5 gnd rswk-swf China Economic conditions 1976-2000 China (DE-588)4009937-4 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content China (DE-588)4009937-4 g Geldversorgung (DE-588)4156431-5 s Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 s DE-604 Geldnachfragefunktion (DE-588)4128445-8 s Geldmengensteuerung (DE-588)4113692-5 s Europäische Hochschulschriften Reihe 5, Volks- und Betriebswirtschaft ; 2931 (DE-604)BV000001798 2931 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009953552&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Huang, Yanfen The money supply process and monetary policy in China Europäische Hochschulschriften Wirtschaft Monetary policy China Money supply China Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd Geldversorgung (DE-588)4156431-5 gnd Geldnachfragefunktion (DE-588)4128445-8 gnd Geldmengensteuerung (DE-588)4113692-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4019902-2 (DE-588)4156431-5 (DE-588)4128445-8 (DE-588)4113692-5 (DE-588)4009937-4 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | The money supply process and monetary policy in China |
| title_auth | The money supply process and monetary policy in China |
| title_exact_search | The money supply process and monetary policy in China |
| title_full | The money supply process and monetary policy in China Yanfen Huang |
| title_fullStr | The money supply process and monetary policy in China Yanfen Huang |
| title_full_unstemmed | The money supply process and monetary policy in China Yanfen Huang |
| title_short | The money supply process and monetary policy in China |
| title_sort | the money supply process and monetary policy in china |
| topic | Wirtschaft Monetary policy China Money supply China Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd Geldversorgung (DE-588)4156431-5 gnd Geldnachfragefunktion (DE-588)4128445-8 gnd Geldmengensteuerung (DE-588)4113692-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Monetary policy China Money supply China Geldpolitik Geldversorgung Geldnachfragefunktion Geldmengensteuerung China Economic conditions 1976-2000 China Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009953552&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000001798 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT huangyanfen themoneysupplyprocessandmonetarypolicyinchina |