Modeling hydrologic change: statistical methods
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Boca Raton, Fla.
Lewis Publishers
2003
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references (p. 425-427) |
| Physical Description: | 433 p. ill. |
| ISBN: | 1566706009 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modeling hydrologic change |b statistical methods |c Richard H. McCuen |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | MODELING HYDROLOGIC CHANAE STATISTICAL METHODS RICHARD H. MCCUEN
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
M LEWIS PUBLISHERS A CRC PRESS COMPANY BOCA RATON LONDON NEW YORK
WASHINGTON, D.C. CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 DATA, STATISTICS, AND MODELING 1 1.1
INTRODUCTION 1 1.2 WATERSHED CHANGES 2 1.3 EFFECT ON FLOOD RECORD 3 1.4
WATERSHED CHANGE AND FREQUENCY ANALYSIS 4 1.5 DETECTION OF
NONHOMOGENEITY 5 1.6 MODELING OF NONHOMOGENEITY 6 1.7 PROBLEMS 7 CHAPTER
2 INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES MODELING 9 2.1 INTRODUCTION 9 2.2
COMPONENTS OF A TIME SERIES 10 2.2.1 SECULAR TRENDS 11 2.2.2 PERIODIC
AND CYCLICAL VARIATIONS 11 2.2.3 EPISODIC VARIATION 14 2.2.4 RANDOM
VARIATION 15 2.3 MOVING-AVERAGE FILTERING 16 2.4 AUTOCORRELATION
ANALYSIS 26 2.5 CROSS-CORRELATION ANALYSIS 30 2.6 IDENTIFICATION OF
RANDOM COMPONENTS 34 2.7 AUTOREGRESSION AND CROSS-REGRESSION MODELS 34
2.7.1 DETERMINISTIC COMPONENT 35 2.7.2 STOCHASTIC ELEMENT 35 2.7.3
CROSS-REGRESSION MODELS 36 2.8 PROBLEMS 36 CHAPTER 3 STATISTICAL
HYPOTHESIS TESTING 39 3.1 INTRODUCTION 39 3.2 PROCEDURE FOR TESTING
HYPOTHESES 42 3.2.1 STEP 1: FORMULATION OF HYPOTHESES 44 3.2.2 STEP 2:
TEST STATISTIC AND ITS SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION 45 3.2.3 STEP 3: LEVEL OF
SIGNIFICANCE 45 3.2.4 STEP 4: DATA ANALYSIS 47 3.2.5 STEP 5: REGION OF
REJECTION 47 3.2.6 STEP 6: SELECT APPROPRIATE HYPOTHESIS 48 3.3
RELATIONSHIPS AMONG HYPOTHESIS TEST PARAMETERS 50 3.4 PARAMETRIC AND
NONPARAMETRIC TESTS 53 3.4.1 DISADVANTAGES OF NONPARAMETRIC TESTS 54
3.4.2 ADVANTAGES OF NONPARAMETRIC TESTS 55 3.5 PROBLEMS 55 CHAPTER 4
OUTLIER DETECTION 57 4.1 INTRODUCTION 57 4.2 CHAUVENET S METHOD 58 4.3
DIXON-THOMPSON TEST 61 4.4 ROSNER S OUTLIER TEST 63 4.5 LOG-PEARSON TYPE
III OUTLIER DETECTION: BULLETIN 17B 68 4.6 PEARSON TYPE III OUTLIER
DETECTION 70 4.7 PROBLEMS 73 CHAPTER 5 STATISTICAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS 77
5.1 INTRODUCTION 77 5.2 FREQUENCY ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS 77 5.2.1
POPULATION VERSUS SAMPLE 78 5.2.2 ANALYSIS VERSUS SYNTHESIS 78 5.2.3
PROBABILITY PAPER 79 5.2.4 MATHEMATICAL MODEL 80 5.2.5 PROCEDURE 81
5.2.6 SAMPLE MOMENTS 81 5.2.7 PLOTTING POSITION FORMULAS 82 5.2.8 RETURN
PERIOD 83 5.3 POPULATION MODELS 83 5.3.1 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION 84 5.3.2
LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION 88 5.3.3 LOG-PEARSON TYPE III DISTRIBUTION 91 5.4
ADJUSTING FLOOD RECORD FOR URBANIZATION 95 5.4.1 EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION
95 5.4.2 METHOD FOR ADJUSTING FLOOD RECORD 99 5.4.3 TESTING SIGNIFICANCE
OF URBANIZATION 107 5.5 PROBLEMS 108 CHAPTER 6 GRAPHICAL DETECTION OF
NONHOMOGENEITY 113 6.1 INTRODUCTION 113 6.2 GRAPHICAL ANALYSES 113 6.2.1
UNIVARIATE HISTOGRAMS 114 6.2.2 BIVARIATE GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS 116 6.3
COMPILATION OF CAUSAL INFORMATION 125 6.4 SUPPORTING COMPUTATIONAL
ANALYSES 128 6.5 PROBLEMS 131 CHAPTER 7 STATISTICAL DETECTION OF
NONHOMOGENEITY . 135 7.1 INTRODUCTION 135 7.2 RUNS TEST 136 7.2.1
RATIONAL ANALYSIS OF RUNS TEST 139 7.3 KENDALL TEST FOR TREND : 141
7.3.1 RATIONALE OF KENDALL STATISTIC 145 7.4 PEARSON TEST FOR SERIAL
INDEPENDENCE 146 7.5 SPEARMAN TEST FOR TREND 149 7.5.1 RATIONALE FOR
SPEARMAN TEST 151 7.6 SPEARMAN-CONLEY TEST 152 7.7 COX-STUART TEST FOR
TREND 153 7.8 NOETHER S BINOMIAL TEST FOR CYCLICAL TREND 156 7.8.1
BACKGROUND 158 7.8.2 TEST PROCEDURE 158 7.8.3 NORMAL APPROXIMATION 159
7.9 DURBIN-WATSON TEST FOR AUTOCORRELATION 161 7.9.1 TEST FOR POSITIVE
AUTOCORRELATION 162 7.9.2 TEST FOR NEGATIVE AUTOCORRELATION 163 7.9.3
TWO-SIDED TEST FOR AUTOCORRELATION 163 7.10 EQUALITY OF TWO CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS 165 7.11 PROBLEMS 167 CHAPTER 8 DETECTION OF CHANGE IN
MOMENTS 173 8.1 INTRODUCTION 173 8.2 GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS 173 8.3 THE SIGN
TEST 174 8.4 TWO-SAMPLE F-TEST 178 8.5 MANN-WHITNEY TEST 181 8.5.1
RATIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE MANN-WHITNEY TEST 183 8.6 THE F-TEST FOR TWO
RELATED SAMPLES 184 8.7 THE WALSH TEST 188 8.8 WILCOXON MATCHED-PAIRS,
SIGNED-RANKS TEST 191 8.8.1 TIES 194 8.9 ONE-SAMPLE CHI-SQUARE TEST 196
8.10 TWO-SAMPLE F-TEST 199 8.11 SIEGEL-TUKEY TEST FOR SCALE 200 8.12
PROBLEMS 204 CHAPTER 9 DETECTION OF CHANGE IN DISTRIBUTION 209 9.1
INTRODUCTION 209 9.2 CHI-SQUARE GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST 209 9.2.1 PROCEDURE
210 9.2.2 CHI-SQUARE TEST FOR A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION 214 9.2.3 CHI-SQUARE
TEST FOR AN EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION 219 9.2.4 CHI-SQUARE TEST FOR
LOG-PEARSON III DISTRIBUTION 221 9.3 KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV ONE-SAMPLE TEST
223 9.3.1 PROCEDURE 223 9.4 THE WALD-WOLFOWITZ RUNS TEST 230 9.4.1 LARGE
SAMPLE TESTING 232 9.4.2 TIES 233 9.5 KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV TWO-SAMPLE TEST
238 9.5.1 PROCEDURE: CASE A 239 9.5.2 PROCEDURE: CASE B 241 9.6 PROBLEMS
243 CHAPTER 10 MODELING CHANGE 247 10.1 INTRODUCTION 247 10.2
CONCEPTUALIZATION 247 10.3 MODEL FORMULATION 250 10.3.1 TYPES OF
PARAMETERS 250 10.3.2 ALTERNATIVE MODEL FORMS 252 10.3.3 COMPOSITE
MODELS 255 10.4 MODEL CALIBRATION 257 10.4.1 LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS OF A
LINEAR MODEL 257 10.4.2 STANDARDIZED MODEL 259 10.4.3 MATRIX SOLUTION OF
THE STANDARDIZED MODEL 259 10.4.4 INTERCORRELATION 260 10.4.5 STEPWISE
REGRESSION ANALYSIS 261 10.4.6 NUMERICAL OPTIMIZATION 267 10.4.7
SUBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION 276 10.5 MODEL VERIFICATION 278 10.5.1
SPLIT-SAMPLE TESTING 278 10.5.2 JACKKNIFE TESTING 279 10.6 ASSESSING
MODEL RELIABILITY 282 10.6.1 MODEL RATIONALITY 284 10.6.2 BIAS IN
ESTIMATION 285 10.6.3 STANDARD ERROR OF ESTIMATE 286 10.6.4 CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT 287 10.7 PROBLEMS 288 CHAPTER 11 HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION 293
11.1 INTRODUCTION 293 11.1.1 DEFINITIONS 293 11.1.2 BENEFITS OF
SIMULATION 294 11.1.3 MONTE CARLO SIMULATION 295 11.1.4 ILLUSTRATION OF
SIMULATION 297 11.1.5 RANDOM NUMBERS 298 11.2 COMPUTER GENERATION OF
RANDOM NUMBERS.... 298 11.2.1 MIDSQUARE METHOD 299 11.2.2 ARITHMETIC
GENERATORS 300 11.2.3 TESTING OF GENERATORS 300 11.2.4 DISTRIBUTION
TRANSFORMATION 300 11.3 SIMULATION OF DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES 304
11.3.1 TYPES OF EXPERIMENTS 304 11.3.2 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 304 11.3.3
MULTINOMIAL EXPERIMENTATION 306 11.3.4 GENERATION OF MULTINOMIAL
VARIATES 308 11.3.5 POISSON DISTRIBUTION 309 11.3.6 MARKOV PROCESS
SIMULATION 310 11.4 GENERATION OF CONTINUOUSLY DISTRIBUTED RANDOM
VARIATES 314 11.4.1 UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION, U(A, J8) 314 11.4.2 TRIANGULAR
DISTRIBUTION 315 11.4.3 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION 316 11.4.4 LOGNORMAL
DISTRIBUTION 317 11.4.5 LOG-PEARSON TYPE III DISTRIBUTION 320 11.4.6
CHI-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION 320 11.4.7 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION 321 11.4.8
EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION 322 11.5 APPLICATIONS OF SIMULATION 323 11.6
PROBLEMS... 328 CHAPTER 12 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 333 12.1 INTRODUCTION .
333 12.2 MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATIONS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 334 12.2.1
DEFINITION 334 12.2.2 THE SENSITIVITY EQUATION 334 12.2.3 COMPUTATIONAL
METHODS 335 12.2.4 PARAMETRIC AND COMPONENT SENSITIVITY 336 12.2.5 FORMS
OF SENSITIVITY 338 12.2.6 A CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN SENSITIVITY AND
CORRELATION 342 12.3 TIME VARIATION OF SENSITIVITY 346 12.4 SENSITIVITY
IN MODEL FORMULATION 348 12.5 SENSITIVITY AND DATA ERROR ANALYSIS 350
12.6 SENSITIVITY OF MODEL COEFFICIENTS 356 12.7 WATERSHED CHANGE 361
12.7.1 SENSITIVITY IN MODELING CHANGE 361 12.7.2 QUALITATIVE SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS 362 12.7.3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DESIGN 362 12.8 PROBLEMS 363
CHAPTER 13 FREQUENCY ANALYSIS UNDER NONSTATIONARY LAND USE CONDITIONS
367 13.1 INTRODUCTION 367 13.1.1 OVERVIEW OF METHOD 367 13.1.2
ILLUSTRATIVE CASE STUDY: WATTS BRANCH 368 13.2 DATA REQUIREMENTS 369
13.2.1 RAINFALL DATA RECORDS 369 13.2.2 STREAMFLOW RECORDS 369 13.2.3
GISDATA 369 13.3 DEVELOPING A LAND-USE TIME SERIES 370 13.4 MODELING
ISSUES 372 13.4.1 SELECTING A MODEL 372 13.4.2 CALIBRATION STRATEGIES
.375 13.4.3 SIMULATING A STATIONARY ANNUAL MAXIMUM-DISCHARGE SERIES 376
13.5 COMPARISON OF FLOOD-FREQUENCY ANALYSES 381 13.5.1 IMPLICATIONS FOR
HYDROLOGIC DESIGN 381 13.5.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS 383 13.6
SUMMARY 383 13.7 PROBLEMS 384 APPENDIX A STATISTICAL TABLES 387 APPENDIX
B DATA MATRICES 419 REFERENCES 425 INDEX 429
|
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| language | English |
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| spelling | McCuen, Richard H. 1941- Verfasser (DE-588)12499508X aut Modeling hydrologic change statistical methods Richard H. McCuen Boca Raton, Fla. Lewis Publishers 2003 433 p. ill. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references (p. 425-427) Hydrologic models Hydrology Statistical methods Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd rswk-swf Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 gnd rswk-swf Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 s Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 s DE-604 GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009892039&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | McCuen, Richard H. 1941- Modeling hydrologic change statistical methods Hydrologic models Hydrology Statistical methods Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4056995-0 (DE-588)4026309-5 |
| title | Modeling hydrologic change statistical methods |
| title_auth | Modeling hydrologic change statistical methods |
| title_exact_search | Modeling hydrologic change statistical methods |
| title_full | Modeling hydrologic change statistical methods Richard H. McCuen |
| title_fullStr | Modeling hydrologic change statistical methods Richard H. McCuen |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling hydrologic change statistical methods Richard H. McCuen |
| title_short | Modeling hydrologic change |
| title_sort | modeling hydrologic change statistical methods |
| title_sub | statistical methods |
| topic | Hydrologic models Hydrology Statistical methods Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Hydrologic models Hydrology Statistical methods Statistik Hydrologie |
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