Beyond six billion: forecasting the world's population
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| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
National Acad. Press
2000
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVIII, 236 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0309069904 |
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MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Beyond six billion |b forecasting the world's population |c Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts ... ed. |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, DC |b National Acad. Press |c 2000 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Prévision démographique | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
Current World Projections, 2
Accuracy of Past Projections, 3
Fertility, 5
Mortality, 7
International Migration, 8
The Uncertainty of Projections, 9
Implications, 11
1 INTRODUCTION 15
Overview of World Projections, 17
Forces Driving Population Growth, 24
How Population Projections Are Made, 29
All Projections Suffer from Uncertainty, 32
Guide to the Report, 34
References, 35
2 THE ACCURACY OF PAST PROJECTIONS 37
Projected Population Size, 38
Correlates of Projection Errors, 40
Projected Age Structures, 45
Projected Component Rates, 46
Conclusions, 50
References, 52
xi
xii CONTENTS
3 TRANSITIONAL FERTILITY 53
Fertility Change in Developing Regions, 53
Reasons for Fertility Decline, 56
Current Methods of Projecting Fertility, 63
Fertility Transition in the 21st Century, 68
Conclusions, 75
References, 78
4 POSTTRANSITION FERTILITY 83
Fertility Levels and Past Trends, 84
Projected Fertility Trends, 87
Interpreting Fertility Trends, 91
Explaining Fertility Trends, 97
Possible Policy Responses, 101
Future Technological Developments, 104
Conclusions, 106
References, 108
5 MORTALITY 114
Current Levels of Life Expectancy, 115
Mortality Transition, 117
Mortality Projections, 127
Future Trends in Life Expectancy, 135
Conclusions, 146
References, 150
6 INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION 156
Current Levels and Trends, 157
Future Migration Trends, 168
Projecting Migration, 174
Improving Migration Projections, 177
Conclusions, 182
References, 185
7 THE UNCERTAINTY OF POPULATION FORECASTS 188
The Scenario Approach and Its Problems, 190
Thinking About Forecast Errors, 194
Three Approaches to Constructing Predictive Distributions, 200
New Estimates of Uncertainty Based on Ex Post Analysis, 206
Conclusions, 214
References, 216
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES 218
CONTENTS xiH
INDEX 225
APPENDICES*
A Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population, 237
B Accuracy of Population Projections from the 1970s to the 1990s, 254
C Predicting the Pace of Fertility Decline, 303
D The Effect of Projection Error in Life Expectancy, 315
E Simulating Migration Projections, 318
F Estimating Expected Errors from Past Errors, 326
* Appendices are not printed in this volume but are available online. Go to http://
www.nap.edu and search for Beyond Six Billion.
Tables and Figures
TABLES
1 1 Population projections by four international agencies for the world
and major regions, 21
1 2 Population of the world s 10 largest countries, 1995 and 2050, 22
1 3 Percent of population aged 65 and over for the world and major
regions, 23
3 1 Difference between projected total fertility and 1998 estimate, 66
4 1 Low fertility countries by region, their populations, and their
shares of world population, 85
4 2 Classification of countries by total fertility in 1950 1955 and 1990
1995, 89
4 3 Change in average total fertility by birth order, and the amount of
change due to tempo effects: Italy and the United States, 97
5 1 Factors expected to affect life expectancy trends in developing
countries, 140
5 2 Number of cases of life expectancy decline in the period
1950 1995,142
6 1 Foreign born population by world region, 1965 1990,158
6 2 Net migration per thousand by world region, 1985 1995,161
xiv
TABLES AND FIGURES xv
B l Error in projected population: Means across countries, by forecast
and projection length, 260
B 2 Error in projected population by target year, 262
B 3 Alternative proportional error measures adjusted for erroneous
base estimates, 269
B 4 Error in projected component rates, 270
B 5 Error in net migration rate by target period, 273
B 6 Analyses of covariance for absolute proportional error in projected
population, 276
B 7 Deviations from the grand mean for absolute percentage error in
projected population, 278
B 8 Deviations from the grand mean for absolute percentage error in
base population, 280
B 9 Regressions to account for proportional error in projected
population, 281
B 10 Summary of analysis of covariance for absolute error in projected
component rates, 284
B ll Summary of analysis of variance for absolute error in base
component rates, 285
B 12 Adjusted deviations from mean absolute error in component
rates, 286
B 13 Proportional error in projected world population, 291
B 14 Absolute proportional error in projected world population, 292
C l Cases available for analysis of fertility transition, 305
C 2 Means and standard deviations, 306
C 3 Correlations between rates of fertility change by period, 308
C 4 Regressions for change in total fertility between 5 year periods
during midtransition, 310
C 5 Regressions for change in total fertility between 5 year periods
during pre and early transition, 312
C 6 Regressions for change in total fertility between 5 year periods
during late transition, 313
D l Selected population outcomes in simulated projections with
varying gains in life expectancy, 317
E l Mean error in migration projected in different ways, 320
E 2 Mean absolute error in projected net migration rate, 321
F l Regional classification used in estimating uncertainty, 334
F 2 Estimates of within region correlations of errors, 336
xvi TABLES AND FIGURES
F 3 Upper endpoints of 95 percent prediction intervals for relative
error and multipliers to obtain the average regional scale, 339
F 4 Ratio of the upper endpoint of the 95 percent prediction interval to
the median world forecast, 342
F 5 U.N. forecast for 2050 and ratios of upper and lower bounds to 50
year medium or median forecast, 343
F 6 Quantities of the predictive distribution for world population in
2010,2030, and 2050,344
F 7 Quantiles of the predictive distribution for world population,
adjusted for possible errors and possible interregional
correlation, 346
FIGURES
1 1 World population size: Historical estimates and alternative
projections, 18
1 2 World population growth rates and annual increments,
1950 2050, 20
1 3 Percentage change in population between 2000 and 2050 in
standard projections and change due to population momentum
alone, 28
2 1 U.N. forecasts of world population in the year 2000 and their
percentage error, 39
2 2 Mean bias and mean absolute error in country population
projections for the year 2000,40
2 3 Mean absolute error in country population projections, 43
2 4 Mean percentage error by age group and projection length: Europe
and Northern America combined, 46
2 5 Mean percentage error by age group and projection length: Asia,
Africa, and Latin America combined, 47
2 6 Variance of the error in projected population accounted for by
different factors, 49
3 1 Percentage of countries that have started fertility decline by a
given date, 54
3 2 Estimated and projected total fertility rates by region:
1950 2050, 56
3 3 Percentage of population literate in countries starting fertility
transition, 62
3 4 Trend in total fertility for developing regions and earlier projected
trends, 1960 2000, 67
TABLES AND FIGURES xvii
4 1 Past and projected total fertility in low fertility countries, 1950
2050, 86
4 2 Error in projected total fertility averaged across countries and
forecasts, 91
4 3 Observed total fertility and total fertility adjusted for the tempo
effect: Italy and the United States, 1950 1995,95
5 1 Estimated and projected life expectancy by region, 1950 2050,116
5 2 Age patterns of female mortality and life expectancies, Sweden,
1900 1996,116
5 3 Percentage declines in mortality among females by age, Sweden,
1900 1996,121
5 4 Historical trends in life expectancy, England and Wales and
Sweden, 1540 1996,123
5 5 Mean annual gains in life expectancy for industrial countries and
three groups of developing countries, 1955 1995,126
5 6 Currently estimated trend in world life expectancy and various
projections, 131
5 7 Mean error in projected life expectancy, across countries and
forecasts, 132
5 8 Observed U.S. life expectancies and various projections by the U.S.
Social Security Administration, 1930 2030,134
5 9 Impact of HIV/AIDS: Estimated and projected life expectancy in
South Africa and Zimbabwe, 144
6 1 Percentage of regional populations who are migrants, and regional
shares of world migrant stock, 1990,160
6 2 Net migration rate, 1990 1995, by percentage of labor force in
agriculture, 168
6 3 Natural increase and net migration rate per thousand by region,
1990 1995,173
6 4 Absolute error from projecting net migration rate as zero, constant,
or differentiated, 176
7 1 Percentage of times the projected U.N. high low interval encloses
the actual subsequent population, 193
7 2 Absolute proportional error in world and country projections, by
projection length, 197
7 3 Correlations between regional errors in projected population over
the period 1970 1995,199
7 4 Four stochastic sample paths for industrial region total fertility
and 95 percent prediction interval, 205
xviii TABLES AND FIGURES
7 5 Estimated 95 percent prediction interval for population projected
10 years: 13 large countries, 209
7 6 Estimated 95 percent prediction interval for population projected
50 years: 13 large countries, 210
7 7 Estimated 95 percent prediction interval for population projected
50 years: 10 regions and the world, 211
7 8 Projected world population: U.N. projections and estimated 95
percent prediction interval, 213
B l Proportional error and absolute proportional error, 263
B 2 Proportional error by projection length: Percentiles for all
countries, 264
B 3 Population trends in five countries experiencing demographic
quakes, 265
B 4 Proportional error and absolute proportional error by the
occurrence of demographic quakes, 266
B 5 Proportional error by region, 267
B 6 Absolute proportional error by region, 268
B 7 Error in projected total fertility, 271
B 8 Error in projected life expectancy, 272
B 9 Error in projected net migration rate, 274
B 10 Percent of variance in proportional error in projected population
explained by proportional error in base population and error in
component rates, 282
B ll Deviations from mean absolute error in projected and base total
fertility, 288
B 12 Deviations from mean absolute error in projected and base life
expectancy, 289
B 13 Deviations from mean absolute error in projected and base net
migration rate, 290
B 14 Mean country proportional error and world proportional
error, 293
B 15 Proportion of country error unoffset in world projections, 294
B 16 World total fertility rate in various forecasts, 295
B 17 World life expectancy in various forecasts, 297
C l Five year change in total fertility as a function of initial level, 307
C 2 Simulated trends in midtransition total fertility, 311
E l Net migrants and absolute error assuming constant net migrants,
by country, 322
E 2 Mean absolute error from projecting net migrants under zero,
constant, or differentiated assumptions, 324
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| spelling | Beyond six billion forecasting the world's population Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts ... ed. Washington, DC National Acad. Press 2000 XVIII, 236 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Bevolkingsprognoses gtt Prévision démographique Wereldbevolking gtt Population forecasting Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklung (DE-588)4113450-3 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 s Entwicklung (DE-588)4113450-3 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Bongaarts, John Sonstige oth National Research Council (USA) Panel on Population Projections Sonstige (DE-588)5529434-0 oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009872266&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Beyond six billion forecasting the world's population Bevolkingsprognoses gtt Prévision démographique Wereldbevolking gtt Population forecasting Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd Entwicklung (DE-588)4113450-3 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4125901-4 (DE-588)4113450-3 (DE-588)4047390-9 |
| title | Beyond six billion forecasting the world's population |
| title_auth | Beyond six billion forecasting the world's population |
| title_exact_search | Beyond six billion forecasting the world's population |
| title_full | Beyond six billion forecasting the world's population Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts ... ed. |
| title_fullStr | Beyond six billion forecasting the world's population Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts ... ed. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Beyond six billion forecasting the world's population Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts ... ed. |
| title_short | Beyond six billion |
| title_sort | beyond six billion forecasting the world s population |
| title_sub | forecasting the world's population |
| topic | Bevolkingsprognoses gtt Prévision démographique Wereldbevolking gtt Population forecasting Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd Entwicklung (DE-588)4113450-3 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bevolkingsprognoses Prévision démographique Wereldbevolking Population forecasting Weltbevölkerung Entwicklung Prognose |
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