The impact of politics on monetary policy: a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Capelle a/d IJssel
Labyrint Publ.
2001
|
| Series: | Theses on systems, organisation and management
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 200 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9072591968 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Maier, Philipp |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The impact of politics on monetary policy |b a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks |c Philipp Maier |
| 264 | 1 | |a Capelle a/d IJssel |b Labyrint Publ. |c 2001 | |
| 300 | |a X, 200 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
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| 490 | 0 | |a Theses on systems, organisation and management | |
| 502 | |a Zugl.: Groningen, Univ., Diss., 2001 | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Centrale banken |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Deutsche Bundesbank |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Monetaire politiek |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Politieke beïnvloeding |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Politik | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Banks and banking, Central |z European Union countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Banks and banking, Central |z Germany | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Monetary policy |x Political aspects |z European Union countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Monetary policy |x Political aspects |z Germany | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Monetary policy |z European Union countries |x Public opinion | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Monetary policy |z Germany |x Public opinion | |
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Tables vi
List of Figures viii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The most independent central bank in the world 1
1.2 Purpose of the study . i
1.3 Means of influencing central hanks .
1.4 The models G
1.4.1 Models linked to election dates fi
1.4.2 Conflict models s
1.4.3 Which model to chose? 0
1.0 Outline of the study 13
2 Review Of The Literature 15
2.1 The institutional setting ~
2.1.1 Germany l.
2.1.2 The structure of the Deutsche Bundesbank 17
2.1.3 Aims and mMruments of the Deut* c|ie Bundesbank . . . 1 v
2.2 Measures of monetary policy 21
2.3 Direct political influence on the Deiitsehe Bundesbank 27
2.3.1 Cross country studies 27
2.3.2 Studies on Germany 2!)
2.4 Indirect influence on the Deutsche Bundesbank 31
2.o Interpretation of the empirical studies 37
iii
iv
3 Interest Rates As Indicators For Monetary Policy 41
3.1 Overview 41
3.2 When do political business cycles occur? 42
3.2.1 Restricting institutional features 42
3.2.2 Possible interest rate patterns before elections 46
3.3 Empirical evidence 48
3.3.1 Country specific results 48
3.3.2 Panel data estimation 54
3.4 Summary 56
4 Monetary Policy Indices As Indicators For Monetary Policy 59
4.1 Overview 59
4.2 Monetary policy indices as indicators for a central bank s rhetoric 60
4.2.1 How monetary policy indices are constructed 60
4.2.2 Properties of the German monetary policy index 62
4.3 Empirical evidence 64
4.3.1 The basic model 64
4.3.2 The Political Business Cycle 67
4.3.3 Conflict models 72
4.4 Interpretation of the German evidence 82
4.5 Rhetoric of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve ... 83
4.5.1 Japan 84
4.5.2 United States 87
4.6 Summary 88
5 A New Indicator For (Political) Pressure 91
5.1 Overview 91
5.2 The Havrilesky approach 92
5.2.1 Methodology 92
5.2.2 Constructing a Pressure Indicator for Germany 94
5.3 Properties of the new Pressure Indicator 95
5.4 Comparison of different indicators for Pressure and Conflicts . 100
5.5 Estimation procedure 102
5.6 Empirical evidence 105
5.6.1 The aggregated Pressure Index 105
5.6.2 Disaggregating the Pressure Index 105
V
5.6.3 Interpretation 109
5.7 Summary 110
6 The Role Of Public Support 113
6.1 Overview 113
6.2 Methodology 114
6.3 Traditional Macroeconomic model 117
6.4 Traditional Public Choice model 119
6.5 The Extended Public Choice model 121
6.5.1 The Support variables 121
6.5.2 Empirical evidence 124
6.5.3 Interpretation 126
6.6 Summary 128
7 The European Context 131
7.1 Overview 131
7.2 The European Central Bank 131
7.3 Political pressure on the ECB? 134
7.4 Can inflation differentials in the EMU cause pressure? 141
7.4.1 Explaining inflation differentials 142
7.4.2 Empirical evidence 147
7.4.3 Should the ECB worry about inflation differentials? . . . 158
7.5 Summary 161
8 Conclusion 163
8.1 Overview 163
8.2 Main findings 164
8.3 Discussion 167
A Data sources 171
A.I Interest rates as indicators for monetary policy 171
A.2 Monetary policy indices as indicators for monetary policy .... 172
A.3 The newspaper indicators for Pressure and Support 173
A.4 The European context 174
Bibliography 177
vi
Author Index
193
Samenvatting (Dutch Summary) lg7
List of Tables
1.1 Legal indices of central bank independence: The ranking of the
Deutsche Bundesbank 2
2.1 Direct influence on the Deutsche Bundesbank 35
2.2 Indirect influence on the Deutsche Bundesbank 37
2.3 Summary: Impact of political pressure on the Deutsche Bundes¬
bank 38
3.1 National constraints 44
3.2 Participation in Fixed Exchange Rate Systems 46
3.3 International constraints 47
3.4 Summary: National and international constraints 47
3.5 Country specific tests 50
3.6 Additional results for Austria and Japan 52
3.7 Results for the UK 53
3.8 Results for the panel regression 55
4.1 Properties of the Bundesbank Index: Granger causality tests . . 64
4.2 Pre and post electoral behavior of the Bundesbank index .... 68
4.3 Pre and post electoral behavior of the day to day rate 69
4.4 Additional political variables 70
4.5 The impact of additional PBC variables on the Bundesbank index 71
4.6 The impact of additional PBC variables on the day to day rate . 72
4.7 The Berger/Schneider conflict model for the Bundesbank index
and the day to day rate 74
4.8 The Lohmann conflict model of Bundesrat support for the Bun¬
desbank index 76
vii
viii
4.9 The Lohmann conflict model of Bundesrat support for the day
to day rate 78
4.10 Impact of political majority of the Bundesbank council on the
Bundesbank index 80
4.11 Vaubel s obstructionist hypothesis for the Bundesbank index . . 81
4.12 Impact of political majority of the Bundesbank council on the
day to day rate 81
4.13 Vaubel s obstructionist hypothesis for the day to day rate .... 82
4.14 The PBC model for the Japan index 86
4.15 The PBC model for the FED index 89
4.16 Post electoral behavior for the FED index 89
5.1 Pressure on the Bundesbank as reported in the newspapers ... 99
5.2 Correlation of Pressure Indicators 101
5.3 The influence of the Total Pressure variable 106
5.4 Disaggregating the Pressure Index 107
5.5 The influence of the newspapers: Pressure from the financial sec¬
tor reported in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 108
5.6 The influence of the newspapers: Pressure from the financial sec¬
tor reported in the Handelsblatt 108
5.7 The influence of the newspapers: Pressure from the financial sec¬
tor reported in the Die Welt 109
5.8 Robustness checks with additional economic variables Ill
6.1 Traditional Macroeconomic Model 118
6.2 Traditional Public Choice model 120
6.3 Support for the Bundesbank in different newspapers 122
6.4 Relation between Pressure and Support 123
6.5 Extended Public Choice model 127
7.1 Inflation rates in the EU member countries 143
7.2 Empirical evidence on inflation differentials 148
7.3 Coefficients of the BS model 151
7.4 Decomposition of real exchange rate movements 153
7.5 Implied Inflation Differentials with France 155
7.6 Simulated inflation rates for EMU member countries 157
List of Figures
1.1 Testable implications of the theoretical models 10
2.1 The structure of the Deutsche Bundesbank 18
2.2 Comparison of growth rates of Ml and M3 24
2.3 Comparison of the discount rate and the monetary policy index
for Germany ( Bundesbank Index ) 26
3.1 Comparison of short term interest rates in Austria and Germany 51
4.1 The monetary policy index for Germany ( Bundesbank Index )
and the day to day rate 63
4.2 The monetary policy index for Germany ( Bundesbank Index )
and the growth rate of M3 65
4.3 The monetary policy index for Germany ( Bundesbank Index )
and the consumer price index 65
4.4 The Berger/Schneider conflict indicator 73
4.5 Comparison of the traditional PBC indicator and Lohmann s con¬
flict variable 77
4.6 The monetary policy index for Japan ( Japan Index ) and Japan
Overnight Call Money Market Rate 85
4.7 The monetary policy index for the US ( US Index ) and the Fed¬
eral Funds Rate 88
5.1 Pressure from the German government 96
5.2 Political pressure on US monetary policy (Havrilesky) 96
5.3 Pressure from the German financial sector 97
5.4 Total Pressure on the Bundesbank 98
ix
X
5.5 Comparison of different conflict indicators 100
6.1 Economic and political determinants of monetary policy 115
6.2 Total support for the Bundesbank 122
6.3 Pressure and Support from the German government 124
6.4 Effect of public support on forecast error et 128
7.1 The structure of the ECB 132
7.2 Pressure from interest groups on the ECB 137
7.3 Spread of the inflation rate within monetary unions 142
7.4 Real exchange rate movements 152
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| id | DE-604.BV014427324 |
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| spelling | Maier, Philipp Verfasser aut The impact of politics on monetary policy a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks Philipp Maier Capelle a/d IJssel Labyrint Publ. 2001 X, 200 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Theses on systems, organisation and management Zugl.: Groningen, Univ., Diss., 2001 Deutsche Bundesbank Deutsche Bundesbank (DE-588)1002465-7 gnd rswk-swf Centrale banken gtt Deutsche Bundesbank gtt Monetaire politiek gtt Politieke beïnvloeding gtt Politik Banks and banking, Central European Union countries Banks and banking, Central Germany Monetary policy Political aspects European Union countries Monetary policy Political aspects Germany Monetary policy European Union countries Public opinion Monetary policy Germany Public opinion Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland Europäische Union. Mitgliedsstaaten (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Deutsche Bundesbank (DE-588)1002465-7 b Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009864266&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Maier, Philipp The impact of politics on monetary policy a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks Deutsche Bundesbank Deutsche Bundesbank (DE-588)1002465-7 gnd Centrale banken gtt Deutsche Bundesbank gtt Monetaire politiek gtt Politieke beïnvloeding gtt Politik Banks and banking, Central European Union countries Banks and banking, Central Germany Monetary policy Political aspects European Union countries Monetary policy Political aspects Germany Monetary policy European Union countries Public opinion Monetary policy Germany Public opinion Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)1002465-7 (DE-588)4019902-2 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | The impact of politics on monetary policy a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks |
| title_auth | The impact of politics on monetary policy a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks |
| title_exact_search | The impact of politics on monetary policy a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks |
| title_full | The impact of politics on monetary policy a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks Philipp Maier |
| title_fullStr | The impact of politics on monetary policy a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks Philipp Maier |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of politics on monetary policy a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks Philipp Maier |
| title_short | The impact of politics on monetary policy |
| title_sort | the impact of politics on monetary policy a study of the bundesbank and other central banks |
| title_sub | a study of the Bundesbank and other central banks |
| topic | Deutsche Bundesbank Deutsche Bundesbank (DE-588)1002465-7 gnd Centrale banken gtt Deutsche Bundesbank gtt Monetaire politiek gtt Politieke beïnvloeding gtt Politik Banks and banking, Central European Union countries Banks and banking, Central Germany Monetary policy Political aspects European Union countries Monetary policy Political aspects Germany Monetary policy European Union countries Public opinion Monetary policy Germany Public opinion Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Deutsche Bundesbank Centrale banken Monetaire politiek Politieke beïnvloeding Politik Banks and banking, Central European Union countries Banks and banking, Central Germany Monetary policy Political aspects European Union countries Monetary policy Political aspects Germany Monetary policy European Union countries Public opinion Monetary policy Germany Public opinion Geldpolitik Deutschland Europäische Union. Mitgliedsstaaten Hochschulschrift |
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