Environmental risk analysis:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York [u.a.]
McGraw-Hill
2001
|
| Series: | McGraw-Hill professional engineering
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVI, 436 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0071372660 |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Environmental risk analysis
Autor: Lerche, Ian
Jahr: 2001
CONTENTS
Preface xiii
Chapter 1. Introduction to Environmental Problems: Transport,
Burial, Monitoring, Spillage, Leakage, and Cleanup
1.1. Transport Problems / 6
1.2. Burial/Storage Problems / 6
1.3. Monitoring Problems / 7
1.4. Spillage Problems / 8
1.5. Leakage Problems / 8
1.6. Summary / 9
Chapter 2. Contracts and Decisions 11
2.1. General Development / 11
2.2. Parameter Uncertainties / 13
2.3. Numerical Example / 16
2.4. Discussion / 17
Appendix 2A: Some Properties of a Log-Normal Distribution / 18
2A.1. Exact Statements / 18
2A.2. Approximate Statements / 20
2A.3. Multiple-Parameter Distributions / 21
Chapter 3. Transport and Burial Hazards of Radioactive Waste 23
3.1. Introduction / 23
3.2. Risk and Catastrophe in the Transport of Radioactive Waste / 24
3.3. Statistical Measures / 25
3.4. Analysis of Alternate Actions: Limited Spill / 28
3.5. Analysis of Alternate Actions: Catastrophic Spill / 31
3.6. Parameter Uncertainty Effects / 33
3.6.1. Means and Variances / 34
3.6.2. Relative Importance / 35
3.7. Relative Contribution of Uncertain Parameters in Subsurface Hydrology / 36
3.7.1. Introduction / 37
3.7.2. Physical Problem / 37
3.7.3. Theoretical Framework / 40
3.1 A. Results and Discussion / 42
3.8. Summary / 43
Appendix 3A: Approximations for Cumulative Probability / 45
vii
viii contents
Chapter 4. Utility Theory and Working-Interest Optimization in a
Hazardous Waste Transport and Burial Opportunity 47
4.1. Introduction / 47
4.2. Working-Interest Evaluation / 48
4.2.1. Exponential Utility Function / 50
4.2.2. Parabolic Utility Function / 53
4.3. Applications / 54
4.4. Summary / 59
Appendix 4A: Limiting Expressions for Certainty Equivalent / 59
Appendix 4B: Parabolic Approximation to Exponential Utility / 62
Chapter 5. Catastrophic Events, Insurance, and Unilateral
Regulatory Changes 65
5.1. Introduction / 65
5.2. Catastrophic Loss in Exploration Assessments / 67
5.3. Catastrophic Loss after Oil Is Found / 71
5.4. Insurance for Hydrocarbon Exploration and Development Risks / 73
5.5. General Catastrophic Loss Conditions / 74
5.5.1. Mathematical Considerations / 74
5.5.2. Numerical Illustration / 78
5.6. Insurance Coverage After Oil is Found / 79
5.6.1. General Considerations / 79
5.6.2. Numerical Illustration / 81
5.7. Insurance against Catastrophic Loss for Environmental Projects / 82
5.8. Optioning against Potential Regulatory Changes / 85
5.9. Risk Retention / 86
5.9.1. Evaluation of Risk Reserve Fund / 88
5.9.2. Projects Awarded at One Time Exposed to Liability L I 88
5.9.3. Projects Awarded at Different Times Exposed to Liability L I 90
5.9.4. Projects of Variable Magnitude Awarded at Different Times and
Exposed to Liability L I 93
5.9.5. Numerical Illustrations / 95
5.10. Summary / 97
Chapter 6. Limiting Risk Using Fractional Working Interest 93
6.1. Introduction / 99
6.2. General Methods / 100
6.2.1. Cozzolino s Formula / 101
6.2.2. Hyperbolic Risk Aversion / 104
6.3. Numerical Illustration / 105
6.3.1. Results from Cozzolino s Formula / 106
6.3.2. Results from the Hyperbolic Formula / 110
6.3.3. Comparison of Results / 110
6.4. Negative Expected Value / 113
6.5. Summary / 114
Chapter 7. Limiting Risk Within a Consortium and Foreign
Government Projects in
7.1. Introduction / 117
CONTENTS
7.2. /MV Estimates with Uncertainties / 118
7.2.1. General Considerations / 118
7.2.2. Numerical Illustrations / 119
7.3. Evaluation of Participation in a Consortium of Companies / 128
7.4. Evaluation of Participation in Foreign Government Projects / 132
7.5. Summary / 136
Chapter 8. Corporate Involvement in Multiple Environmental Projects 139
8.1. Introduction / 139
8.2. Deterministic Portfolio Balancing / 140
8.2.1. Relative Importance / 140
8.2.2. Profitability / 140
8.2.3. Costs / 141
8.3. Budget Constraints / 142
8.3.1. High Budget / 142
8.3.2. Low Budget / 142
8.4. Finding the Best Working Interests / 142
8.4.1. The Parabolic RAVFormula / 144
8.4.2. The Exponential RAV Formula / 146
8.5. Deterministic Numerical Illustrations / 148
8.5.1. A Budget of $20 Million / 149
8.5.2. A Budget of $11 Million / 149
8.5.3. A Budget of $4 Million / 150
8.6. Probabilistic Portfolio Balancing / 150
8.7. Probabilistic Numerical Illustrations / 151
8.7.1. Variable Value / 151
8.7.2. Variable Value and Cost / 154
8.7.3. Variable Value, Cost, and Success Probability / 155
8.7.4. Very Low Budget / 155
8.7.5. Low to High Budget Comparison / 157
8.8. Comparison of Parabolic and Exponential RAV I 161
8.8.1. Deterministic Results / 161
8.8.2. Statistical Results / 162
8.9. Transport and Burial of Wastes / 164
8.10. Multiple Projects / 169
8.11. Exposure and Expenditure Constraints / 171
8.11.1. Corporate Exposure / 171
8.11.2. Cost Expenditure / 172
8.12. Optimal Working Interest / 172
8.13. Parabolic Utility Function / 175
8.14. Application / 171
8.15. Summary / 178
Appendix 8A: Weighted RAV Optimization / 180
Chapter 9. Apportionment of Cost Overruns to Hazardous
Waste Projects_______________
9.1. Introduction / 183
9.2. Project Costs and Cost Overruns / 184
9.3. Numerical Illustrations / 186
9.3.1. Identical Projects / 186
9.3.2. Unequal Projects / 187
9.4. Arbitrary Numbers of Projects / 188
9.5. Summary / 190
X CONTENTS
Chapter 10. Bayesian Updating of Toxic Leakage Scenarios 193
10.1. Introduction / 193
10.2. Theoretical Considerations / 193
10.3. General Concepts of Bayesian Updating / 194
10.4. Numerical Illustration / 196
10.4.1. Updating the Likelihood of a State Being Correct / 196
10.4.2. Updating the Probability of Leakage / 197
10.5. Bayesian Decision Criteria / 199
10.5.1. Optimal Expected Value Bayes Decision / 199
10.5.2. Expected Opportunity Loss / 203
10.5.3. Influence of the Length of the Observation Record on Decision Making / 205
10.5.4. Influence of the Form of the Loss Function on Decision Making / 206
10.6. Summary / 210
Chapter 11. Multiple Transport of Hazardous Material: Probabilities of
Profitability 211
11.1. Introduction / 211
11.2. Statistical Measures for Individual Transport Trips / 211
11.2.1. Statistics for a Single Event / 212
11.2.2. Statistics for Multiple Events / 214
11.2.3. Bayesian Updating of Probabilities / 215
11.2.4. Residual Trips and Probability Updating / 217
11.3. Budget Buyout Considerations I 217
11.4. Numerical Illustrations / 218
11.4.1. Multiple Transport before a Catastrophe Occurs / 218
11.4.2. Ship Disaster and Probability Updating / 219
11.4.3. Buyout Price and Minimum Acceptable Chance / 219
11.5. Summary / 220
Chapter 12. Maximizing Profit for a Toxic Waste Site
Monitoring System 223
12.1. Introduction / 223
12.2. Scientific Considerations / 224
12.3. Financial Considerations / 225
12.4. Numerical Illustration / 228
12.5. Summary / 229
Chapter 13. Option Payments for Future Information 231
13.1. Introduction / 231
13.2. Maximum Option Payments / 232
13.2.1. Mean Value Assessment of Option Costs / 234
13.2.2. Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costs / 255
13.3. Numerical Illustrations / 236
13.3.1. Mean Value Assessment of Option Costs I 237
13.3.2. Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costs / 237
13.4. Summary / 238
CONTENTS xi
Chapter 14. The Worth of Resolving Uncertainty
for Environmental Projects 241
14.1. Introduction / 241
14.2. Representation of Risk and Uncertainty / 244
14.3. Application to the Question: Is Value Added? / 247
14.4. Summary / 249
Chapter 15. Scientific Uncertainty in Environmental Problems:
Models and Data 257
15.1. Introduction / 252
15.2. Continuous Measurements of Hydraulic Head / 253
15.2.1. Weighting Factors / 253
15.2.2. Parameter Determination / 255
15.2.3. Illustrative Example / 255
15.2.4. Spatial Changes and Partitions / 260
15.3. Discrete Measurements of Hydraulic Head / 261
15.4. Stochastic Determinations / 262
15.4.1. General Considerations / 262
15.4.2. Parameter Determination / 263
15.4.3. Weighting Factors / 265
15.4.4. Numerical Illustation / 266
15.5. Averaging Measures for Hydrodynamic Problems / 268
15.5.1. Specific Hydrodynamic Flow Model / 269
15.5.2. Discussion / 274
15.6. Summary / 275
Appendix 15A: General Development of Procedures for N Models / 276
15A.1. Continuous, Perfect Measurements / 276
15A.2. Discrete, Perfect Data / 277
15A.3. Stochastic Measurements / 278
Appendix 15B: Individual Parameter Determination Procedure / 281
Appendix 15C: Measures of Model and Observational Mismatch / 283
Chapter 16. Human, Water, Chemical, Biological and
Radioactive Risks ____________________________________________287
16.1. Introduction / 288
16.2. Natural Environmental Problems / 288
16.3. Anthropogenic Environmental Problems / 289
16.3.1. Examples of Anthropogenic Environmental Problems / 290
16.3.2. Resources and Environmental Issues / 297
16.4. Remediation of Environmental Problems / 300
16.5. Rules for Addressing Environmental Problems / 301
Chapter 17. Epilogue 303
Appendix 1. Phase I, II, and HI Site Assessments 305
xii CONTENTS
Appendix 2. Brief Overview of the Federal Statutes of the United States 379
References 423
Index 431
|
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| spelling | Lerche, Ian Verfasser aut Environmental risk analysis Ian Lerche ; Evan K. Paleologos New York [u.a.] McGraw-Hill 2001 XVI, 436 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier McGraw-Hill professional engineering Umweltgefährdung - Umweltanalytik - Risikoanalyse - Modellierung Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Umweltschutz (DE-588)4061644-7 gnd rswk-swf Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 gnd rswk-swf Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s DE-604 Umweltschutz (DE-588)4061644-7 s Paleologos, Evan K. Verfasser aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009557630&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Lerche, Ian Paleologos, Evan K. Environmental risk analysis Umweltgefährdung - Umweltanalytik - Risikoanalyse - Modellierung Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Umweltschutz (DE-588)4061644-7 gnd Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4061644-7 (DE-588)4117286-3 |
| title | Environmental risk analysis |
| title_auth | Environmental risk analysis |
| title_exact_search | Environmental risk analysis |
| title_full | Environmental risk analysis Ian Lerche ; Evan K. Paleologos |
| title_fullStr | Environmental risk analysis Ian Lerche ; Evan K. Paleologos |
| title_full_unstemmed | Environmental risk analysis Ian Lerche ; Evan K. Paleologos |
| title_short | Environmental risk analysis |
| title_sort | environmental risk analysis |
| topic | Umweltgefährdung - Umweltanalytik - Risikoanalyse - Modellierung Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Umweltschutz (DE-588)4061644-7 gnd Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Umweltgefährdung - Umweltanalytik - Risikoanalyse - Modellierung Risikoanalyse Umweltschutz Umweltschaden |
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