Holdings: Uncertain inference

Uncertain inference:

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Kyburg, Henry Ely 1928-2007 (Author), Teng, Choh Man (Author)
Format:	Book
Language:	English
Published:	Cambridge Cambridge Univ. Press 2001
Edition:	1. publ.
Subjects:	Fundamentos de estatística Logic, Symbolic and mathematical Probabilities Uncertainty (Information theory)
Online Access:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Physical Description:	XII, 298 S.
ISBN:	0521001013 0521800641

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MARC


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adam_text	UNCERTAIN INFERENCE HENRY E. KYBURG, JR. UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER AND INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN AND MACHINE COGNITION, UNIVERSITY OF WEST FLORIDA AND CHOH MAN TENG INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN AND MACHINE COGNITION, UNIVERSITY OF WEST FLORIDA CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS CONTENTS PREFACE PAGE XI 1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.2 INFERENCE \ 1 1.3 ROOTS IN THE PAST _.,. 6 1.4 FRANCIS BACON 7 1.5 THE DEVELOPMENT OF PROBABILITY 10 1.6 JOHN STUART MILL 13 1.7 G.H. VON WRIGHT 17 1.8 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES 19 1.9 EXERCISES 19 BIBLIOGRAPHY 20 2 FIRST ORDER LOGIC 21 2.1 INTRODUCTION 21 2.2 SYNTAX * 24 2.3 SEMANTICS 28 2.4 W. V. O. QUINE'S MATHEMATICAL LOGIC 30 2.5 ARGUMENTS FROM PREMISES 33 2.6 LIMITATIONS 34 2.7 SUMMARY 39 2.8 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES ' ., 39 2.9 EXERCISES ^ . 39 BIBLIOGRAPHY 41 3 THE PROBABILITY CALCULUS . 42 3.1 INTRODUCTION 42 3.2 ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY 44 3.2.1 COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS 44 3.2.2 THE PROBABILITY CALCULUS 47 3.2.3 ELEMENTARY THEOREMS 49 VI CONTENTS 3.3 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY 50 3.3.1 THE AXIOM OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY 51 3.3.2 BAYES' THEOREM 53 3.4 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 54 3.4.1 FREQUENCY FUNCTIONS AND DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS 55 3.4.2 PROPERTIES OF DISTRIBUTIONS 59 3.5 SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS 61 3.6 USEFUL DISTRIBUTIONS 62 3.7 SUMMARY 64 3.8 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES 65 3.9 EXERCISES 65 BIBLIOGRAPHY 67 4 INTERPRETATIONS OF PROBABILITY 68 4.1 INTRODUCTION 68 4.2 THE CLASSICAL VIEW . 68 4.3 EMPIRICAL INTERPRETATIONS OF PROBABILITY 71 4.3.1 THE LIMITING FREQUENCY INTERPRETATION 72 4.3.2 THE PROPENSITY INTERPRETATION 78 4.4 LOGICAL INTERPRETATIONS OF PROBABILITY 80 4.5 SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATIONS OF PROBABILITY - 87 4.5.1 DUTCH BOOK N 87 4.5.2 CONDITIONALIZATION "~" 89 4.6 SUMMARY 93 4.7 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES 95 4.8 EXERCISES 95 BIBLIOGRAPHY 96 5 NONSTANDARD MEASURES OF SUPPORT 98 5.1 SUPPORT . 98 5.2~KARL POPPER 99 5.2.1 CORROBORATION 100 5.2.2 LEVI'S CRITICISM 102 5.3 OTHER MEASURES 103 5.4 DEMPSTER-SHAFER BELIEF FUNCTIONS 104 5.4.1 BELIEF FUNCTIONS AND MASS FUNCTIONS 105 5.4.2 REDUCTION TO SETS OF PROBABILITIES 106 5.4.3 COMBINING EVIDENCE 108 5.4.4 SPECIAL CASES 110 5.4.5 ASSESSMENT OF BELIEF FUNCTIONS 111 5.5 SETS OF PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS 113 5.6 SUMMARY 114 5.7 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES 114 5.8 EXERCISES 115 BIBLIOGRAPHY 116 6 NONMONOTONIC REASONING 117 6.1 INTRODUCTION 117 6.2 LOGIC AND (NON)MONOTONICITY 117 CONTENTS VLL 6.3 DEFAULT LOGIC 6.3.1 PRELIMINARIES 6.3.2 TRANSFORMATION OF OPEN DEFAULT THEORIES 6.3.3 EXTENSIONS - 6.3.4 NEED FOR A FIXED POINT 6.3.5 NUMBER OF EXTENSIONS 6.3.6 REPRESENTATION 6.3.7 VARIANTS OF DEFAULT LOGIC 6.4 AUTOEPISTEMIC LOGIC 6.4.1 MODAL LOGIC 6.4.2 AUTOEPISTEMIC REASONING VS DEFAULT REASONING 6.4.3 STABLE EXPANSIONS 6.4.4 ALTERNATIVE FIXED-POINT FORMULATION 6.4.5 GROUNDEDNESS 6.5 CIRCUMSCRIPTION^ 6.6 UNRESOLVED ISSUES 6.6.1 "INTUITION": BASIS OF DEFAULTS 6.6.2 COMPUTATIONAL COMPLEXITY 6.6.3 MULTIPLE EXTENSIONS 6.7 6.8 6.9 SUMMARY BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES EXERCISES BIBLIOGRAPHY 7 THEORY REPLACEMENT 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 7.11 INTRODUCTION THEORY CHANGE 7.2.1 EXPANSION 7.2.2 CONTRACTION 7.2.3 REVISION RATIONALITY CONSIDERATIONS THE AGM POSTULATES 7.4.1 EXPANSION 7.4.2 CONTRACTION 7.4.3 REVISION CONNECTIONS SELECTING A CONTRACTION FUNCTION EPISTEMIC ENTRENCHMENT MUST IT BE? 7.8.1 BELIEF BASES 7.8.2 UPDATES 7.8.3 RATIONALITY REVISITED 7.8.4 ITERATED CHANGE SUMMARY BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES EXERCISES BIBLIOGRAPHY 121 121 123 124 126 127 128 131 134 134 136 138 140 142 143 146 146 147 147 148 148 149 150 152 152 153 153 154 155 156 158 158 159 161 163 164 166 168 168 169 170 171 171 172 172 173 VIII CONTENTS 8 STATISTICAL INFERENCE 175 8.1 INTRODUCTION 175 8.2 CLASSICAL STATISTICS 178 8.2.1 SIGNIFICANCE TESTS 179 8.2.2 HYPOTHESIS TESTING 182 8.2.3 CONFIDENCE INTERVALS 186 8.3 BAYESIAN STATISTICS 192 8.4 SUMMARY 195 8.5 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES 197 8.6 EXERCISES 197 BIBLIOGRAPHY 198 9 EVIDENTIAL PROBABILITY 200 9.1 INTRODUCTION 200 9.2 BACKGROUND ISSUES AND ASSUMPTIONS 201 9.3 THE SYNTAX OF STATISTICAL KNOWLEDGE 203 9.4 REFERENCE CLASSES AND TARGET CLASSES 205 9.4.1 REFERENCE FORMULAS 205 9.4.2 TARGET FORMULAS 208 9.5 PRIMA FACIE SUPPORT 209 9.5.1 INDEFINITE PROBABILITIES 210 9.5.2 DEFINITE PROBABILITIES _ 210 9.6 SHARPENING 212 9.6.1 PRECISION 213 9.6.2 SPECIFICITY 213 9.6.3 RICHNESS 216 9.6.4 SHARPENS 217 9.7 PARTIAL PROOF 219 9.8 EXTENDED EXAMPLE 220 9.9 A USEFUL ALGORITHM 225 9.10 RELATIONS TO OTHER INTERPRETATIONS 225 9.11 SUMMARY 226 9.12 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES 227 9.13 EXERCISES 227 BIBLIOGRAPHY 228 10 SEMANTICS 230 10.1 INTRODUCTION 230 10.2 MODELS AND TRUTH 232 10.3 MODEL RATIOS 235 10.4 RELEVANT MODELS 236 10.5 PARTIAL VALIDITY 240 10.6 REMARKS 242 10.7 SUMMARY 244 10.8 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES 245 10.9 EXERCISES 245 BIBLIOGRAPHY 245 CONTENTS 11 APPLICATIONS 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.10 INTRODUCTION ELEMENTARY RESULTS INFERENCE FROM SAMPLES EXAMPLE STATISTICAL INDUCTION BAYESIAN INDUCTION SEQUENCES OF DRAWS SUMMARY BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES EXERCISES BIBLIOGRAPHY 12 SCIENTIFIC INFERENCE 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 INTRODUCTION 12.1.1 OBJECTIVITY 12.1.2 EVIDENTIAL AND PRACTICAL CERTAINTY 12.1.3 STATISTICAL INFERENCE DEMONSTRATIVE INDUCTION DIRECT MEASUREMENT INDIRECT MEASUREMENT THEORY, LANGUAGE, AND ERROR SUMMARY BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTES 12.7.1 MEASUREMENT 12.7.2 THEORIES 12.7.3 DATAMINING EXERCISES BIBLIOGRAPHY NAMES INDEX INDEX IX 247 247 248 254 259 261 262 264 266 267 268 268 270 270 270 272 273 274 275 280 285 286 287 287 287 287 288 288 291 293
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spellingShingle	Kyburg, Henry Ely 1928-2007 Teng, Choh Man Uncertain inference Fundamentos de estatística larpcal Logic, Symbolic and mathematical Probabilities Uncertainty (Information theory)
title	Uncertain inference
title_auth	Uncertain inference
title_exact_search	Uncertain inference
title_full	Uncertain inference Henry E. Kyburg and Choh Man Teng
title_fullStr	Uncertain inference Henry E. Kyburg and Choh Man Teng
title_full_unstemmed	Uncertain inference Henry E. Kyburg and Choh Man Teng
title_short	Uncertain inference
title_sort	uncertain inference
topic	Fundamentos de estatística larpcal Logic, Symbolic and mathematical Probabilities Uncertainty (Information theory)
topic_facet	Fundamentos de estatística Logic, Symbolic and mathematical Probabilities Uncertainty (Information theory)
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Holdings

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