Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | German |
| Published: |
Frankfurt am Main
Deutsche Bundesbank
2001
|
| Series: | Discussion paper / Economic Research Centre of the Deutsche Bundesbank
2001,10 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Literaturverz. S. 61 - 64 |
| Physical Description: | [6], 68 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3933747767 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries |c Zsolt Darvas |
| 246 | 1 | 0 | |a pass-through |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text |
Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 1
2 EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH 4
2.1 A brief review of the literature 4
2.2 Aggregation, simultaneity and time variation 6
2.3 Time horizon of pass-through and the real exchange rate 7
2.4 Pass-through into consumer prices 9
3 PASS-THROUGH IN EU CANDIDATE COUNTRIES 10
3.1 The model 10
3.2 Statistical representation 12
4 EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES, INFLATION AND
REAL EXCHANGE RATE 14
4.1 Exchange Rate Regimes 14
4.2 Nominal exchange rate and inflation developments 15
4.3 Real exchange rate and the Balassa-Samuelson effect 18
5 EMPIRICAL RESULTS 21
5.1 Preliminary data analysis 23
5.2 VAR pass-through estimates 24
5.3 Long-run real exchange rate 26
5.4 Fixed parameter pass-through estimates 28
5.5 Time-varying parameter pass-through estimates 35
6 IMPLICATIONS FOR EXCHANGE RATE POLICY 44
7 SUMMARY 46
8 ANNEX 47
8.1 Nominal exchange rate movements 47
8.2 Measurement of the equilibrium real exchange rate 49
8.2.1 Concepts and methods 49
8.2.2 Some evidence for candidate countries 54
8.3 Some background calculations 56
8.3.1 Seasonality 56
8.3.2 Stationarity 57
9 REFERENCES 61
List of figures
Figure 1. Czech Republic: Inflation and exchange rate changes 16
Figure 2. Hungary: Inflation and exchange rate changes 16
Figure 3. Poland: Inflation and exchange rate changes 17
Figure 4. Slovenia: Inflation and exchange rate changes 17
Figure 5. Real exchange rate with respect to Germany 19
Figure 6. Labour productivity divergence in the tradable vs. non-tradable sector 20
Figure 7. Labour productivity of GDP 20
Figure 8 (a-f). Czech Republic: Rolling sample single equation coefficient estimates. 31
Figure 9 (a-e). Hungary: Rolling sample single equation coefficient estimates. 32
Figure 10 (a-e). Poland: Rolling sample single equation coefficient estimates. 33
Figure 11 (a-f)- Slovenia: Rolling sample single equation coefficient estimates. 34
Figure 12 (a-f)- Czech Republic: Time-varying coefficient estimates 38
Figure 13 (a-e). Hungary: Time-varying coefficient estimates 39
Figure 14 (a-e). Poland: Time-varying coefficient estimates 40
Figure 15 (a-f). Slovenia: Time-varying coefficient estimates 41
Figure 16 (a-h). Dynamics of the response to a 1% shock to the exchange rate on
certain dates 42
Figure 17 (a-d). Time-varying estimate of instantaneous and long-run
response of prices to a 1 % shock to the exchange rate 43
Figure 18. Cross-plot of exchange rate variability and pass-through 45
Figure 19 (a-d). Cross-plot of inflation and pass-through 45
Figures in the annex
Figure 20. Czech Republic: Nominal exchange rate of the koruna against
the official currency basket 47
Figure 21 .Hungary: Nominal exchange rate of the forint against the
official currency basket 47
Figure 22. Poland: Nominal exchange rate of the zloty against the official currency basket. 48
Figure 23. Slovenia: Nominal exchange rate of the tolar against the
Deutsche Mark. 48
Figure 24 (a-j). Correlogram of fundamental prices, original and seasonally adjusted 56
List of tables
Table 1. Population, development, growth, openness, foreign direct investment 3
Table 2. Variable definitions 22
Table 3. Impulse response functions derived from three variable VARs 25
Table 4. Estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate 27
Table 5. OLS estimation of the pass-through model 30
Table 6. Diagnostics of time-varying parameter estimation 37
Tables in the annex
Table 7. Current account and foreign direct investment, 1990-99 (% of GDP) 55
Table 8. Czech Republic: Unit root tests 58
Table 9. Hungary: Unit root tests 59
Table 10. Slovenia: Unit root tests 60 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Darvas, Zsolt M. |
| author_GND | (DE-588)123863856 |
| author_facet | Darvas, Zsolt M. |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Darvas, Zsolt M. |
| author_variant | z m d zm zmd |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV013869038 |
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| dewey-full | 339.530943 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 339 - Macroeconomics and related topics |
| dewey-raw | 339.530943 |
| dewey-search | 339.530943 |
| dewey-sort | 3339.530943 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| era | Geschichte 1992-2000 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1992-2000 |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV013869038 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-01-02T09:19:38Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3933747767 |
| language | German |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009486427 |
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| physical | [6], 68 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2001 |
| publishDateSearch | 2001 |
| publishDateSort | 2001 |
| publisher | Deutsche Bundesbank |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Discussion paper / Economic Research Centre of the Deutsche Bundesbank |
| spelling | Darvas, Zsolt M. Verfasser (DE-588)123863856 aut Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries Zsolt Darvas pass-through Frankfurt am Main Deutsche Bundesbank 2001 [6], 68 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Discussion paper / Economic Research Centre of the Deutsche Bundesbank 2001,10 Literaturverz. S. 61 - 64 Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte 1992-2000 gnd rswk-swf Foreign exchange rates European Union countries Wechselkurs (DE-588)4064921-0 gnd rswk-swf Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 gnd rswk-swf Beitritt (DE-588)4120988-6 gnd rswk-swf Wechselkurspolitik (DE-588)4131291-0 gnd rswk-swf Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 gnd rswk-swf Europäische Union. Mitgliedsstaaten Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd rswk-swf Visegrád-Staaten (DE-588)4398309-1 gnd rswk-swf Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 b Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 s Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 g Beitritt (DE-588)4120988-6 s Wechselkurs (DE-588)4064921-0 s DE-604 Visegrád-Staaten (DE-588)4398309-1 g Wechselkurspolitik (DE-588)4131291-0 s Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 s Geschichte 1992-2000 z DE-188 Economic Research Centre of the Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion paper 2001,10 (DE-604)BV013545109 2001,10 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009486427&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Darvas, Zsolt M. Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Foreign exchange rates European Union countries Wechselkurs (DE-588)4064921-0 gnd Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 gnd Beitritt (DE-588)4120988-6 gnd Wechselkurspolitik (DE-588)4131291-0 gnd Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5098525-5 (DE-588)4064921-0 (DE-588)4161661-3 (DE-588)4120988-6 (DE-588)4131291-0 (DE-588)4188829-7 (DE-588)4075739-0 (DE-588)4398309-1 |
| title | Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries |
| title_alt | pass-through |
| title_auth | Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries |
| title_exact_search | Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries |
| title_full | Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries Zsolt Darvas |
| title_fullStr | Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries Zsolt Darvas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries Zsolt Darvas |
| title_short | Exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries |
| title_sort | exchange rate pass through and real exchange rate in eu candidate countries |
| topic | Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Foreign exchange rates European Union countries Wechselkurs (DE-588)4064921-0 gnd Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 gnd Beitritt (DE-588)4120988-6 gnd Wechselkurspolitik (DE-588)4131291-0 gnd Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Europäische Union Foreign exchange rates European Union countries Wechselkurs Inflationsbekämpfung Beitritt Wechselkurspolitik Währungsunion Europäische Union. Mitgliedsstaaten Osteuropa Visegrád-Staaten |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009486427&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV013545109 |
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