Causality in macroeconomics:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2001
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| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Publisher description Table of contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIII, 311 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0521002885 0521452171 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Causality in macroeconomics
Autor: Hoover, Kevin D.
Jahr: 2001
Contents
Preface page xi
1 The Problem of Causality in Macroeconomics 1
1.1 The Legacy of David Hume 2
Accounting for Macroeconomics - Causally 2
Accounting for Causes - Economically 8
Causal Issues 12
1.2 Probabilistic Causality in the Humean Tradition 13
1.3 The Primacy of Structure 22
Implicit Structures 22
Making Structures Explicit 23
1.4 Taking Macroeconomics Seriously 26
2 The Notion of Causal Structure 29
2.1 A Conditional Analysis of Causality 29
2.2 Causal Order 34
2.3 Pragmatics 41
2.4 The Causal Field 43
2.5 Probabilistic Causality 49
2.6 Robustness and Invariance 54
2.7 Causal Structure 59
3 Representing Causal Structure 60
3.1 A Set-Theoretic Formalization of Causal Structure 61
3.2 Examples of Causally Ordered Structures 63
A Linear Case 63
A Rational Expectations Model 64
A Regime-Switching Model 66
4 Articulating Causal Structure 69
4.1 Types and Tokens 70
4.2 Variables or Tropes? 81
viii Contents
4.3 Singular Cause and Concrete Structures 87
4.4 Causality and Laws 100
The Reality of Macroeconomic Structures 108
5.1 The Program of Microfoundations 109
5.2 Is Macroeconomics Ontologically Problematic? 112
5.3 The Supervenience of Macroeconomics on
Microeconomics 119
5.4 Two Arguments for the Reality of Macroeconomics 124
5.5 Macroeconomic Structures 128
Causality and Macroeconomic Constraints 129
6.1 The Nature of Macroeconomics 129
6.2 Temporal Order 131
(I) Frequency of Observation 134
(2) Hidden Variables and Temporal Reversal 136
(3) Long-run versus Short-run Causality 138
6.3 Marks and Interventions 140
Macroeconometrics and Causality 144
7.1 Some Reflections on the History of Causality in
Econometrics 144
7.2 Three Current Econometric Approaches to Causality 149
Granger 150
Glymour, Schemes, Spirtes, and Kelly 155
LeRoy 170
7.3 Exogeneity and Causality 174
Concepts of Exogeneity 175
The Demand for Money with Extrapolative
Expectations 178
The Demand for Money with Rational Expectations 180
7.4 The Lucas Critique and Causality 182
Inferring Causal Direction 191
8.1 A Simple Linear Example 192
8.2 Nonlinear Structures 201
A Spending Intervention without Cross-Equation
Restrictions 203
A Spending Intervention with Cross-Equation
Restrictions 204
A Tax Intervention with or without Cross-Equation
Restrictions 210
8.3 Identifying Interventions 213
Chow Tests 217
Plots of Recursive Regression Coefficients 219
Fluctuation Tests 219
Contents ix
8.4 Linear Methods in the Context of Endogenous
Regime Switching 220
Appendix. The Power of Structural Break Tests
Using a Regime-Switching Model: Calibration
and Monte-Carlo Design 225
Calibration 225
Simulation 226
9 Case Study I: The Causal Direction between Taxes and
Government Spending in the Postwar Period 227
9.1 Models and Causal Orderings 227
A Model of Expenditure Smoothing 227
A Double-Sided Cost-Benefit Model 228
A Constant-Share Model 228
9.2 A Chronology of the Tax and Spending Processes 229
9.3 Evidence 231
The Data 231
Characterization of Distributions 232
Observational Equivalence in Practice 236
Out-of-Sample Projections 238
9.4 Interpretation 245
9.5 Conclusion 246
Appendix. Data: Sources and Definitions 248
10 Case Study II: The Causal Direction between Money
and Prices 250
10.1 Does Money Cause Prices? The Current Debate 250
10.2 Stable and Unstable Periods 251
10.3 Baseline Regressions 253
10.4 Digression: Reaction Function or Causal
Relation? 260
10.5 Out-of-Sample Projections 261
Backward Projections: 1953.4-1950.1 261
Forward Projections: 1966.3-1985.4 267
Patterns of Stability 21A
10.6 Does Currency Cause Prices? 276
10.7 Summary and Conclusions 276
Appendix. Data: Sources and Definitions 278
11 Causality in Macroeconomics 283
Bibliography 287
Index 305
|
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| isbn | 0521002885 0521452171 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Hoover, Kevin D. 1955- Verfasser (DE-588)132028425 aut Causality in macroeconomics Kevin D. Hoover 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2001 XIII, 311 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Philosophie Macroeconomics Macroeconomics -- Philosophy Kausalität (DE-588)4030102-3 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 s Kausalität (DE-588)4030102-3 s DE-604 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/cam021/00049351.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/cam025/00049351.html Table of contents HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009458456&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Hoover, Kevin D. 1955- Causality in macroeconomics Philosophie Macroeconomics Macroeconomics -- Philosophy Kausalität (DE-588)4030102-3 gnd Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4030102-3 (DE-588)4037174-8 |
| title | Causality in macroeconomics |
| title_auth | Causality in macroeconomics |
| title_exact_search | Causality in macroeconomics |
| title_full | Causality in macroeconomics Kevin D. Hoover |
| title_fullStr | Causality in macroeconomics Kevin D. Hoover |
| title_full_unstemmed | Causality in macroeconomics Kevin D. Hoover |
| title_short | Causality in macroeconomics |
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