State and local population projections: methodology and analysis
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| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York [u.a.]
Kluwer Acad., Plenum Publ.
2001
|
| Series: | The Plenum series on demographic methods and population analysis
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVI, 426 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0306464926 0306464934 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 650 | 4 | |a Forecasting |x methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Growth | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population forecasting |x Methodology | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
1. Introduction 1
What Is a Population Projection? 3
Projections, Forecasts, Estimates 3
Alternative Approaches to Projecting Population 4
Why Make Population Projections? 7
Roles of Projections 7
Projections and Decision Making 8
Forecasting and Planning 10
How Can This Book Help? 11
Objectives 12
Geographic Focus 14
Coverage 15
Target Audience 17
2. Fundamentals of Population Analysis 19
Demographic Concepts 19
Size 19
Distribution 22
Composition 23
Change 24
Components of Change 28
Fertility 28
Mortality 28
Migration 29
Demographic Balancing Equation 30
ix
X Contents
Statistical Measures 31
Sources of Data 35
Decennial Census 36
Vital Statistics 38
Sample Surveys 39
Administrative Records 41
Population Estimates 41
3. Overview of the Cohort Component Method 43
Concepts and Terminology 44
Brief Description of Procedures 45
4. Mortality 49
Mortality Measures 50
Crude Death Rate 50
Age Specific Death Rate 51
Survival Rates 52
Life Table Survival Rates 52
Census Survival Rates 57
Approaches to Projecting Mortality Rates 59
Constant Rates 60
Trend Extrapolation 60
Targeting 61
Cause Delay 62
Synthetic Projection 63
Implementing the Mortality Component 64
Sources of Data 64
Views of the Future 65
Examples 68
Conclusions 71
5. Fertility 73
Fertility Measures 74
Crude Birth Rate 75
General Fertility Rate 75
Age Specific Birth Rate 76
Contents XI
Total Fertility Rate 77
Child Woman Ratio 78
Two Perspectives: Period and Cohort 79
Denning the Relationship 79
Assessing the Issues 81
Approaches to Projecting Fertility Rates 83
Using Period Rates 83
Using Cohort Rates 87
Implementing the Fertility Component 89
Sources of Data 90
Views of the Future 91
Examples 92
Conclusions 95
6. Migration 97
Concepts, Measures, Definitions 98
Place of Residence 98
Mobility and Migration 100
Length of Migration Interval 100
Gross and Net Migration 101
Migration Rates 104
International and Internal Migration 109
Assessing the Issues Ill
Sources of Data 112
Decennial Census 113
Administrative Records 114
Sample Surveys 115
Residual Estimates 116
Determinants of Migration 118
Theoretical Foundations 118
Reasons for Moving 120
Statistical Analyses 122
Migration Models 123
Gross Migration 123
Net Migration 125
Implementing the Migration Component 128
Choosing Appropriate Models 128
Choosing Data and Assumptions 129
Accounting for Unique Events and Special Populations 131
Accounting for Data Problems 132
XH Contents
Converting Data to Alternate Time Intervals 133
Conclusions 135
7. Implementing the Cohort Component Method 137
General Considerations 137
Applying the Cohort Component Method 139
Gross Migration (Model I) • 142
Net Migration (Model II) 151
Hamilton Perry (Model HI) 153
Comparing Models I, II, and III 158
Conclusions 159
8. Trend Extrapolation Methods 161
Simple Methods 162
Linear 164
Geometric 164
Exponential 165
Complex Methods 166
Linear Trend 167
Polynomial Curve Fitting 169
Logistic Curve Fitting 170
ARIMA Model 172
Ratio Methods 176
Constant Share 177
Shift Share 17S
Share of Growth 179
Other Applications 180
Analyzing Projection Results 180
Conclusions 182
9. Structural Models I: Economic Demographic 185
Overview of Structural Models 185
Focus on Migration 186
Factors Affecting Migration 187
Employment 188
Unemployment Rate 190
Contents xffi
Wages and Income 191
Amenities 192
Recursive Models 193
Econometric Models 194
Balancing Labor Supply and Demand 198
Population/Employment Ratios 202
Nonrecursive Models 209
Economic and Demographic Relationships 209
Regional Economic Models, Incorporated (REMI) 211
Conclusions 213
10. Structural Models II: Urban Systems 215
A Brief History of Urban Systems Models 217
Components of Urban Systems Models 218
Regional Projections 218
Zonal Land Use and Activity Model 218
Transportation Model 220
Linking the Components 220
Data Requirements and Sources 222
Population, Housing, Income 223
Employment 224
Land Use 224
Illustration of a Residential Location Model 225
Land Use and Activity Models Used Today 230
DRAM and EMPAL: Descendants of Lowry s Gravity Model .. 230
POLIS: An Optimization Model 231
Land Pricing Models 232
Microgeographic Land Use and Activity Models 233
California Urban Futures Model 235
Conclusions 236
11. Special Adjustments 239
International Migration 239
Special Populations 241
Incorporating Special Populations into the Projection 242
Assessing Data for Special Populations 243
Illustrating the Impact of a Special Population 245
Census Enumeration Errors 246
Xiv Contents
Controlling 248
Controlling to Independent Projections 249
Controlling to Projections of Larger Geographic Areas 258
Providing Additional Temporal and Age Detail 266
Adding Temporal Detail 266
Adding Age Detail 272
Conclusions 277
12. Evaluating Projections 279
Evaluation Criteria 280
Provision of Necessary Detail 280
Face Validity 282
Plausibility 285
Costs of Production 287
Timeliness 287
Ease of Application and Explanation 288
Usefulness as an Analytical Tool 288
Political Acceptability 289
Forecast Accuracy 292
A Balancing Act 292
Comparing Methods 293
Provision of Detail 294
Face Validity and Plausibility 295
Costs and Timeliness 295
Ease of Application and Explanation 296
Usefulness as an Analytical Tool 297
Political Acceptability 297
Forecast Accuracy 298
Conclusions 298
13. Forecast Accuracy and Bias 301
Measuring Accuracy and Bias 302
Denning Forecast Error 302
Common Error Measures 302
Selection Criteria 305
Factors That Affect Accuracy and Bias 307
Projection Method 307
Population Size 316
Contents ^y
Population Growth Rate 317
Length of Horizon 320
Length of Base Period 323
Launch Year 326
Combining Forecasts 328
Accounting for Uncertainty 331
Range of Projections 332
Prediction Intervals 334
Conclusions 339
14. A Practical Guide to Small Area Projections 343
Determine What Is Needed 344
Demographic Characteristics 345
Geographic Areas 345
Length of Horizon and Projection Interval 346
Time and Budget Constraints 347
Other Considerations 347
Construct the Projections 348
Select Computer Software 348
Choose Projection Method(s) 349
Collect and Evaluate Data 351
Adjust for Special Events 352
Control for Consistency 353
Account for Uncertainty 354
Review and Document the Results , 355
Internal Review 355
External Review 358
Documentation 359
Conclusions 360
15. New Directions in Population Projection Research 361
Technological Developments 362
Data Availability 362
Computing Capabilities 364
Geographic Information Systems 365
Methodological Developments 367
Microsimulation Models 367
Spatial Diffusion Models 368
XVI Contents
Artificial Neural Networks 370
Integrating Expert Judgment 371
Measuring Uncertainty 372
Combining Projections 373
Scope of Projections 373
Some Challenges 374
Glossary 377
References 385
Author Index 405
Subject Index 411
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
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| id | DE-604.BV013764483 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:51:33Z |
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| isbn | 0306464926 0306464934 |
| language | English |
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| series2 | The Plenum series on demographic methods and population analysis |
| spelling | Smith, Stanley K. Verfasser aut State and local population projections methodology and analysis Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, and David A. Swanson New York [u.a.] Kluwer Acad., Plenum Publ. 2001 XVI, 426 S. Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier The Plenum series on demographic methods and population analysis Bevolkingsprognoses gtt Lokale gemeenschappen gtt Overheidsbeleid gtt Population - Recherche - Méthodologie Prévision démographique - Méthodologie Politik Forecasting methods Population Growth Population forecasting Methodology Population research Methodology Methodologie (DE-588)4139716-2 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Methodologie (DE-588)4139716-2 s DE-604 Tayman, Jeff Verfasser aut Swanson, David A. 1946- Verfasser (DE-588)129056340 aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009408068&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Smith, Stanley K. Tayman, Jeff Swanson, David A. 1946- State and local population projections methodology and analysis Bevolkingsprognoses gtt Lokale gemeenschappen gtt Overheidsbeleid gtt Population - Recherche - Méthodologie Prévision démographique - Méthodologie Politik Forecasting methods Population Growth Population forecasting Methodology Population research Methodology Methodologie (DE-588)4139716-2 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4139716-2 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4006292-2 |
| title | State and local population projections methodology and analysis |
| title_auth | State and local population projections methodology and analysis |
| title_exact_search | State and local population projections methodology and analysis |
| title_full | State and local population projections methodology and analysis Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, and David A. Swanson |
| title_fullStr | State and local population projections methodology and analysis Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, and David A. Swanson |
| title_full_unstemmed | State and local population projections methodology and analysis Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, and David A. Swanson |
| title_short | State and local population projections |
| title_sort | state and local population projections methodology and analysis |
| title_sub | methodology and analysis |
| topic | Bevolkingsprognoses gtt Lokale gemeenschappen gtt Overheidsbeleid gtt Population - Recherche - Méthodologie Prévision démographique - Méthodologie Politik Forecasting methods Population Growth Population forecasting Methodology Population research Methodology Methodologie (DE-588)4139716-2 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bevolkingsprognoses Lokale gemeenschappen Overheidsbeleid Population - Recherche - Méthodologie Prévision démographique - Méthodologie Politik Forecasting methods Population Growth Population forecasting Methodology Population research Methodology Methodologie Prognose Bevölkerungsentwicklung |
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