Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany: a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Heidelberg ; New York
Physica-Verl.
2001
|
| Series: | Contributions to economics
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | 173 S. |
| ISBN: | 3790813931 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany |b a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables |c Claus Brand |
| 264 | 1 | |a Heidelberg ; New York |b Physica-Verl. |c 2001 | |
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| 490 | 0 | |a Contributions to economics | |
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Intermediate strategies for monetary policy 1
1.2 The role of the Bundesbank 3
1.3 The methodological framework 4
2. Measuring monetary policy: Operating procedures and in¬
termediate strategies 7
2.1 The conduct of monetary policy in Germany 7
2.1.1 The practice of monetary targeting 7
2.1.2 The development of instruments for monetary control. 19
2.2 Operating procedures and money supply 30
2.3 A note on the identifiability of money demand 32
2.3.1 The identification problem 32
2.3.2 Money demand and monetary policy rules 33
2.3.3 Tracing the supply side using bank reserves? 34
2.4 A note on the identifiability of autonomous monetary policy
actions 35
2.4.1 Common identification problems in VARs 35
2.4.2 Identifying monetary policy regimes 37
2.4.3 Narrative approaches 39
2.4.4 Unresolved issues 39
2.5 Evidence from recent empirica! analyses of German monetary
policy 40
2.5.1 Was there no role for monetary aggregates in Germany? 40
2.5.2 Did the Bundesbank pursue a Lombard rate regime? .. 41
3. Theoretical framework 45
3.1 Basic considerations 45
3.2 Interest rate operating procedure (from 1985 on) 47
3.3 An alternative approach: reserves targeting 49
3.4 Discount window borrowing procedure (1975 1984) 51
3.5 Concluding remarks 52
VI Contents
4. Analysis of time series using linear state space models 53
4.1 Basic concepts 53
4.1.1 Common approaches to multivariate time series analysis 53
4.1.2 The system theoretic approach 54
4.1.3 Filtering and smoothing 55
4.2 The linear state space model 55
4.3 Specific properties of the linear model 58
4.3.1 Innovation state space representation 58
4.3.2 Linear state space models and time series models 59
4.3.3 Minimality 64
4.4 Signal extraction using the Kahnan filter 67
4.4.1 Filtered forecasts 67
4.4.2 Smoothed forecasts 70
4.4.3 The use of the Kalman filter in econometrics 70
4.5 Structural analysis 71
4.5.1 Impulse responses to orthogonal innovations 71
4.5.2 Impulse responses to non orthogonal innovations us¬
ing a Wold ordering scheme 72
4.5.3 Impulse responses to non orthogonal innovations: Be¬
yond the Wold ordering scheme 74
4.5.4 The forecast error variance decomposition 76
4.5.5 Distribution of impulse response functions 77
4.6 Model selection and estimation 79
4.6.1 The model building algorithm 79
4.6.2 Salient features of the algorithm as compared with VARs 83
4.6.3 Model specification tests 85
4.7 Modelling nonstationary time series and common stochastic
trends 88
4.7.1 Detrending and common trend representation in
econometrics 88
4.7.2 Modelling trend and cycle 90
4.7.3 A useful generalisation for cointegrated time series.... 95
4.7.4 Properties of the decomposition into permanent and
transitory components 96
5. Empirical implementation and results 101
5.1 Is a multiplier approach adequate to model German money
supply? 101
5.1.1 Data 101
5.1.2 Results 102
5.2 Monetary targeting and the business cycle I17
5.2.1 Data 117
5.2.2 Results 118
5.3 A quantity theory based approach to inflation targeting 126
5.3.1 Money stock control and inflation targeting 126
Contents VII
5.3.2 The P* approach 128
5.3.3 Data and results 129
6. Conclusions 141
6.1 Methodological remarks : 141
6.2 Money stock control and the day to day conduct of monetary
policy 142
6.3 Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany 143
6.4 Prospects for the ECB s monetary policy strategy 144
List of figures 147
List of tables 149
Bibliography 151
A. GAUSS programs 157
A.I Estimation of balanced state space model 157
A.2 Obtaining in sample forecasts using the Kalman filter 166
A.3 Calculation of impulse responses 168
A.4 Calculation of forecast error variance decompositions 169
A.5 Decomposition of Error Variance Covariance Matrix A 170
A.6 Aoki C Test for model specification 171
List of figures
2.1 Inflation and the development of the German overnight money
market rate (monthly: 1974.01 1997.04; dotted line: overnight
rate; solid line: annual change in consumer price index.) 13
2.2 Development of M3 (monthly: 1974.01 1997.04) 14
2.3 Development of West German GDP (quarterly, in prices of 1991,
1974.01 1990.04) 15
2.4 Development of GDP for unified Germany (quarterly, in prices
of 1991, 1991.01 1998.01) 16
2.5 Development of the German Lombard, discount and overnight
money market rate 21
2.6 Development of Lombard and discount loans and credit via REPOs 24
4.1 Graphical representation of model (4.3) (4.4) 58
4.2 Graphical representation of system (4.10), (4.11) in innovation form. 59
4.3 The Kalman filter 69
5.1 Impulse responses from money market model: 1991.01 1997.04 ... 107
5.2 Forecast error variance decomposition from money market model:
1991.01 1997.04 108
5.3 Impulse responses from money market model: 1985.02 1990.05 ... Ill
5.4 Forecast error variance decomposition from money market model:
1985.01 1990.05 112
5.5 Impulse responses from money market model: 1975.01 1985.01 ... 115
5.6 Forecast error variance decomposition from money market model:
1975.01 1985.01 116
5.7 Impulse responses from general model: 1990.05 1997.04 120
5.8 Impulse responses from general model: 1990.05 1997.04 121
5.9 Impulse responses from general model: 1975.01 1985.01 124
5.10 Impulse responses from general model: 1975.01 1985.01 125
5.11 Capacity utilisation: 1975.I 1997.IV 131
5.12 Velocity of German M3: 1975.I 1997.IV 132
5.13 GDP deflator and P*: 1975.I 1997.IV 133
5.14 Impulse responses for price gap and overnight rate from state
space representation: 1975.I 1997.IV 138
5.15 Impulse responses for price gap and overnight rate from VAR rep¬
resentation: 1975.I 1997.IV 139
List of tables
2.1 Monetary targets of the Deutsche Bundesbank 11
3.1 Interaction among the variables under an interest rate rule 49
3.2 Interaction among the variables under a reserves targeting procedure 51
3.3 Interaction among the variables under the discount borrowing rule 52
5.1 Singular values of trend part for small model (1991.01 1997.04) .. 103
5.2 Ratios of singular values of trend part for small model (1991.01—
1997.04) : 104
5.3 Residual diagnostics: Trend part of model for subperiod 1991.01
1997.04 104
5.4 Singular values of cyclical part for small model (1991.01 1997.04). 104
5.5 Ratios of singular values of cyclical part for small model (1991.01
1997.04) 105
5.6 Residual diagnostics: Joint model for subperiod 1991.01 1997.04.. 105
5.7 Model parameter estimates (1991.01 1997.04) , 106
5.8 Model parameter estimates (1985.02 1990.05) 109
5.9 Residual diagnostics for subperiod 1985.02 1990.05 110
5.10 Model parameter estimates (1975.01 1985.01) 113
5.11 Residual diagnostics for subperiod 1975.01 1985.01 114
5.12 Model parameter estimates (1990.06 1997.04) 119
5.13 Residual diagnostics for subperiod 1990.06 1997.04 119
5.14 Forecast error decomposition: 1990.06 1997.04 122
5.15 Model parameter estimates (1975.01 1985.01) 123
5.16 Residual diagnostics for subperiod 1975.01 1985.01 123
5.17 Forecast error decomposition: 1975.01 1985.01 126
5.18 Parameter estimates and residual diagnostics: State space imple¬
mentation of P* model for West Germany (1975.I 1990.IV) 134
5.19 Parameter estimates and residual diagnostics: State space imple¬
mentation of P* model for unified Germany (1975.I 1997.IV) 135
5.20 Variance decomposition from state space implementation of P*
model 135
5.21 Parameter estimates and residual diagnostics: State space imple¬
mentation of F* model for unified Germany (1975.I 1997.IV) 137
5.22 Variance decomposition from Bundesbank reaction function 137
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Brand, Claus |
| author_facet | Brand, Claus |
| author_role | aut |
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| callnumber-subject | HG - Finance |
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| dewey-ones | 332 - Financial economics |
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| dewey-search | 332.4/943 21 |
| dewey-sort | 3332.4 3943 221 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| era | Geschichte 1974-1998 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1974-1998 |
| format | Thesis Book |
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| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Contributions to economics |
| spelling | Brand, Claus Verfasser aut Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables Claus Brand Heidelberg ; New York Physica-Verl. 2001 173 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Contributions to economics Zugl.: Essen, Univ., Diss., 1999 Deutsche Bundesbank Deutsche Bundesbank (DE-588)1002465-7 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte 1974-1998 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrisches Modell Monetary policy -- Germany -- Econometric models Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 gnd rswk-swf Geldmengenziel (DE-588)4214167-9 gnd rswk-swf Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd rswk-swf Geldangebot (DE-588)4019893-5 gnd rswk-swf Geldmengenpolitik (DE-588)4132736-6 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Deutsche Bundesbank (DE-588)1002465-7 b Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 s DE-604 Geldmengenziel (DE-588)4214167-9 s Geschichte 1974-1998 z Geldangebot (DE-588)4019893-5 s DE-188 Geldmengenpolitik (DE-588)4132736-6 s Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009287870&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Brand, Claus Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables Deutsche Bundesbank Deutsche Bundesbank (DE-588)1002465-7 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell Monetary policy -- Germany -- Econometric models Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 gnd Geldmengenziel (DE-588)4214167-9 gnd Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd Geldangebot (DE-588)4019893-5 gnd Geldmengenpolitik (DE-588)4132736-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)1002465-7 (DE-588)4161661-3 (DE-588)4214167-9 (DE-588)4019902-2 (DE-588)4019893-5 (DE-588)4132736-6 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables |
| title_auth | Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables |
| title_exact_search | Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables |
| title_full | Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables Claus Brand |
| title_fullStr | Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables Claus Brand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables Claus Brand |
| title_short | Money stock control and inflation targeting in Germany |
| title_sort | money stock control and inflation targeting in germany a state space modelling approach to the bundesbank s operating procedures and intermediate strategy with 26 tables |
| title_sub | a state space modelling approach to the Bundesbank's operating procedures and intermediate strategy ; with 26 tables |
| topic | Deutsche Bundesbank Deutsche Bundesbank (DE-588)1002465-7 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell Monetary policy -- Germany -- Econometric models Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 gnd Geldmengenziel (DE-588)4214167-9 gnd Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd Geldangebot (DE-588)4019893-5 gnd Geldmengenpolitik (DE-588)4132736-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Deutsche Bundesbank Ökonometrisches Modell Monetary policy -- Germany -- Econometric models Inflationsbekämpfung Geldmengenziel Geldpolitik Geldangebot Geldmengenpolitik Deutschland Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009287870&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT brandclaus moneystockcontrolandinflationtargetingingermanyastatespacemodellingapproachtothebundesbanksoperatingproceduresandintermediatestrategywith26tables |