A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China:
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| Language: | English |
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2001
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| Series: | Schriften zur ländlichen Entwicklung
64 |
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| Physical Description: | XIX, 204 S. graph. Darst, Kt. |
| ISBN: | 3825837823 |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaft | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ökonometrisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Agriculture and state |z China |z Hainan Sheng |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Agriculture |x Economic aspects |z China |z Hainan Sheng |x Econometric models | |
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| adam_text | Titel: A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China
Autor: Guo, Jianchun
Jahr: 2001
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FORWORD..............................................................................................................v
ABOUT THE AUTHOR...........................................................................................vii
ACKNOWLEDGMENT............................................................................................vii
DEDICATION...........................................................................................................ix
TABLE OF CONTENTS...........................................................................................xi
LIST OF TABLES..................................................................................................xvi
LIST OF FIGURES...............................................................................................xviii
1 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................1
1.1 Basic information on Hainan province.....................................................1
1.2 Problem statement..................................................................................2
1.3 Objectives of the study............................................................................5
1.4 Overview of methodological approach.....................................................6
1.5 Organisation and structure of the study...................................................9
2 THE ECONOMIC REFORMS IN HAINAN PROVINCE..........................11
2.1 General background of Hainan s economic reforms..............................11
2.2 SEZ policies in Hainan...........................................................................12
2.2.1 The goals of the economic reform in Hainan.........................................12
2.2.2 The policy instruments of the economic reforms...................................12
2.2.3 The SEZ policy adjustment in the middle of 1990 s...............................14
2 3 Agricultural policy in Hainan..................................................................15
2.3.1 Agricultural price system reform............................................................15
2.3.2 Reform of agricultural input markets......................................................18
2.3.3 Agricultural land policy...........................................................................18
2.3.4 Credit and grain risk fund policy............................................................19
2.3.5 Agricultural tax policy............................................................................19
3 A REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY AND THE AGRICULTURAL
ECTOR OF HAINAN..............................................................................23
3.1 A general review of the economy in Hainan province............................23
3.1.1 The performance of the economic reforms in Hainan since 1987.........23
3.1.2 Economic structures in Hainan..............................................................27
3.1.3 Foreign trade development in Hainan province.....................................28
3.1.4 Employment and income changes in the sectors in Hainan..................29
3.1.5 Investment structure and foreign capital in Hainan province.................31
3.2 Structure and development of the agricultural sector............................33
3.2.1 The major feature of the agriculture economy in Hainan province........33
3.2.1.1 Two different agricultural economic systems in Hainan.........................33
3.2.1.1.1 Some general indicators of the LRES in Hainan province.....................35
3.2.1.1.2 Some socio-economic indicators of rural households in Hainan
province.................................................................................................36
3.2.1.2 Productivity and self-sufficiency............................................................38
3.2.1.3 Backwardness of agricultural processing...............................................39
3.2.2 Agricultural structure in Hainan..............................................................40
3.2.3 Agricultural production in Hainan...........................................................41
3.2.3.1 Major crops produced in Hainan province.............................................41
3.2.3.2 Livestock production in Hainan..............................................................42
3.2.3.3 Fishery in Hainan Province....................................................................44
3.3 Measurement of agricultural protection rate in Hainan..........................45
3.3.1 Nominal protection rate..........................................................................45
3.3.2 Effective protection rate.........................................................................47
3.3.3 Producer subsidy equivalent..................................................................48
3.4 Preliminary conclusion...........................................................................50
4 THE METHODOLOGIES AND THE STRUCTURAL FRAMEWORK
OF THE STUDY....................................................................................53
4.1 Overview of agricultural policy analysis approaches..............................53
4.2 Literature review....................................................................................55
4.3 The structural framework of the study...................................................61
4.3.1 Policy evaluation....................................................................................62
4.3.2 Econometric models..............................................................................64
4.3.3 Non-linear programming model.............................................................64
4.3.3.1 The basic theory of non-linear programming model..............................64
4.3.3.2 Advantages of using non-linear programming model............................65
4.4 The features of the HAS model.............................................................66
4.5 The study area and the data used in the HAS model............................68
4.5.1 The study area and the data categories................................................68
4.5.2 The data sources and data processing..................................................69
4.6 Classification of agricultural regions in Hainan province........................72
5 THE ECONOMETRIC MODELS............................................................75
5.1 Production function in the HAS model...................................................75
5.1.1 Factors included in the production function...........................................76
5.1.1.1 The natural factor variables in the production function..........................77
5.1.1.1.1 The ecological relationship between soil organic matter and crop
output....................................................................................................79
5.1.1.1.2 The ecological relationship between soil pH value and crop output......80
5.1.1.2 Other variables in the production function.............................................82
5.1.1.3 The data used in the production function..............................................84
5.1.1.4 The estimated results of the production function...................................85
5.1.1.4.1 Early rice................................................................................................85
5.1.1.4.2 Late rice.................................................................................................86
5.1.1.4.3 Sweet potato.........................................................................................86
5.1.1.4.4 Sugarcane.............................................................................................88
5.1.1.4.5 Peanut...................................................................................................88
5.1.1.5 Limitations in the estimation of the production function.........................89
5.1.2 Production function for other crops included in the HAS model.............90
5.1.2.1 C-D production function.........................................................................90
5.1.2.2 Measurement of technical progress......................................................91
5.2 Input demand function...........................................................................92
5.2.1 Derived input demand function..............................................................92
5.2.2 Econometric input demand function......................................................96
5.3 Regression model used for prediction...................................................98
5.3.1 Regression model used for population prediction..................................98
5.3.1.1 Regression model used for urban population forecasting.....................98
5.3.1.2 Regression model used for rural population prediction........................100
5.3.2 Cultivated land prediction....................................................................101
6 THE NON-LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL.....................................105
6.1 Variables included in the model...........................................................105
6.1.1 Production activities included in the model..........................................105
6.1.2 Variables and parameters inducted in the model.................................106
6.1.3 Main cost items included in the HAS model.........................................109
6.2 Objective function................................................................................109
6.2.1 Price responsive demand function.......................................................113
6.2.2 Wage responsive labour supply function.............................................115
6.2.3 Transport cost......................................................................................118
6.3 Constraints in the model......................................................................118
6.3.1 Agricultural land and irrigated land resource constraints.....................119
6.3.2 Feed balance.......................................................................................120
6.3.3 Draft balance.......................................................................................121
6.3.4 Commodity market balance.................................................................122
6.3.5 Cash balance.......................................................................................123
6.3.6 Animal nutrition balance......................................................................124
6.3.7 Human nutrition balance......................................................................125
6.4 Major outputs in the model and different dimension............................126
6.5 Calibration of the model.......................................................................127
7 POLICY SIMULATION AND APPLICATION OF THE HAS MODEL ...129
7.1 Methodological approach for policy simulation in the HAS model.......130
7.2 Price policy scenarios..........................................................................131
7.2.1 impacts of rice price policy on the yield and supply of crop outputs.... 134
7.2.2 Impacts of rice price policy on the output price structure.....................139
7.3 Agricultural tax policy scenarios...........................................................143
7 3.1 Impact of agricultural tax increase on the yield and total output of
crop products.......................................................................................143
7.3.2 Impact of agricultural tax increase on the total output of animal
products...............................................................................................145
7.3.3 Impacts of the tax increase on the output price...................................147
7.4 Trade liberalisation scenarios..............................................................148
7.4.1 Input price decrease scenario..............................................................149
7.4.1.1 Impacts of input price decrease on the yield and output level.............150
7.4.1.2 Impacts of input price decrease on the output price...........................154
7 4.2 Export quantity increase scenario........................................................155
7.4.2.1 Impacts of export increase on the supply and demand.......................157
7.4.2.2 Simulated supply and demand changes..............................................157
7.5 Population and income increase scenarios.........................................160
7.5.1 Population increase scenario...............................................................160
7.5.1.1 Economic Impacts of population increase on the agricultural sector ...161
7.5.1.2 Simulated supply and price changes after the population increase.....163
7.5.2 People s income increase scenario.....................................................164
7.5.2.1 Economic impacts of income increase on the agricultural sector........165
7.5.2.2 Simulated price and supply changes after income increase................166
7.6 Impacts of the policy changes on the producer consumer
surpluses and on the factor prices.......................................................168
7.7 Projection for 2005..............................................................................171
7.7.1 Condition changes and projections for 2005.......................................171
7.7.2 Projected results for 2005....................................................................175
8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION..........................................................183
8.1 Summary of the study..........................................................................183
8.2 Limitations of the study........................................................................186
8.3 Further development possibility...........................................................187
REFERENCE........................................................................................................189
LIST OF TABLES
3.1 Annual per capita income and index in urban and rural households......31
3.2 Investment in capital formation and technical innovations in
different sectors in Hainan province (in 0000 Yuan).............................32
3.3 General situation of the LRES in Hainan province 1987-1996...............36
3.4 Some socio-economic indicators of rural households in Hainan............37
3.5 Per capita land area managed by the sampled households in
Hainan province (mo/person).................................................................37
3.6 Yield of grain crops per mu in different regions in China (kg/mu ).........38
3.7 Cassava processing in three counties of Hainan province.....................40
3.8 Average annual growth rate of the output value from farming,
tropical crop, livestock and fishery in Hainan Province (%)....................41
3.9 Nominal protection rate of major agricultural products in Hainan
(based on border price)..........................................................................46
3.10 Effective protection rate of major agricultural products in Hainan..........48
3.11 Producer subsidy equivalent of major agricultural products in Hainan... 50
4.1 Brief features of the five regions in Hainan province..............................73
4.2 Distance between the five regions of Hainan province (in km)...............73
5.1 The suitable pH vale for different crops.................................................82
5.2 Estimated results for early rice production function (with or
without pH value)...................................................................................86
5.3 Estimated results for late rice.................................................................87
5.4 Estimated results of sweet potato production function...........................87
5.5 Estimated results of sugarcane production function..............................88
5.6 Estimated results for peanut..................................................................89
5.7 Fertiliser input price elasticity by different input demand functions........97
6.1 Production activities included in the HAS model..................................106
6.2 Variables and parameters in the model................................................107
6 3 List of inputs and production factors considered in the model.............108
6.4 Price demand elasticity for China.........................................................114
6 5 Price and expenditure elasticity for major food items in rural
household in China..............................................................................115
6 6 The production activity and output matrix in the HAS model................126
7.1 Production activity level change (%) after 20 % increase of the
rice price (Sc1) combined with 10 % irrigated land increase (Sc2)......135
7.2 Yield changes (%) after the increase of the rice price and
irrigated land........................................................................................136
7.3 Impact of increase of rice price on the total crop output.......................137
7.4 impact of increase of rice price on the total animal output...................138
7.5 Output change after the agricultural tax increase................................144
7.6 Impacts of tax policy changes on the crop yield level..........................145
7.7 Impacts of the tax increase on the supply of animal products..............146
7.8 Crop output price change after the agricultural tax increase................147
7.9 Animal output price change after the agricultural tax increase.............148
7.10 Input price of chemical fertilisers in Hainan and world market price.....149
7.11 Chemical fertilisers consumption and import in China and Hainan......150
7.12 Impact of input price decrease on the crop yield level.........................152
7.13 Impact of input price decrease on the output level...............................153
7.14 Simulated output price change after input price decrease...................154
7.15 Impacts of export increase on the supply of agricultural
commodities (+/-%).............................................................................158
7.16 Impacts of export on the domestic demand of some selected
agricultural products.............................................................................159
7.17 Impacts of export increase on the output price of agricultural sector..160
7.18 Impact of population increase on the supply........................................163
7.19 Impact of population increase on the output price...............................164
7.20 Impacts of income increase on the output price (+/-%)........................166
7.21 Impact of income increase on the supply of agricultural
products (+/-%)....................................................................................168
7.22 Projected price change (+/-%) in the animal sector in 2005.................179
XVH
LIST OF FIGURES
1.1 A Map of China.........................................................................................1
3.1 GDP growth rate (%) by sector in Hainan province (1978-1996)...........24
3.2 Inflation rate (%) in China 1978-1996....................................................25
3.3 Average growth rates (%) of the agricultural gross output value in
Hainan from 1952 to 1996.....................................................................26
3.4 Economic Structure of Hainan Province (1987-1996) in %....................27
3.5 Import and export value (in 0000 US$) and trade balance in
Hainan province, 1987-1996..................................................................29
3.6 Proportion of the employed labour by sector in Hainan.........................30
3.7 Foreign capital actually used by different sectors in Hainan
province 1987-1996...............................................................................33
3.8 Two different agricultural system in Hainan...........................................34
3.9 Total and per capita cultivated land in Hainan province
(in 0000 ha, ha/person).........................................................................39
3.10 Gross output value of the crop production, animal husbandry
and fishery over the years (million Yuan)...............................................41
3.11 Major crop production in Hainan in 0000 ha in 1987 and 1996.............42
3.12 Animal production level in Hainan Province (in 0000 heads)................43
3.13 Gross output of aquatic production in Hainan 1987-1996
in 0000 tons...........................................................................................44
4.1 The structural framework of HAS model................................................61
5.1 Functional relationship between natural factors and yield......................79
5.2 Relationship between agricultural output and pH value of soil...............81
5.3 Production curve and diminishing marginal products.............................83
5.4 Technical progress and agricultural production function........................83
5.5 Urban population in 5 regions in Hainan (in 0000 person)....................99
5.6 Rural population in 5 regions in Hainan...............................................101
5.7 Cultivated land in five regions in Hainan (in ha)...................................102
6.1 Illustration of producer s and consumer s surpluses.............................109
6.2 Wage responsive labour supply function.............................................117
6.3 Principles of marginal revenue and production costs...........................127
7.1 Illustration of policy simulation in the HAS model.................................131
7.2 Impacts of the increase of rice price on the agricultural sector............132
7.3 Input demand change under different prices........................................134
xviii
7.4 Price and supply change of other crop outputs except rice..................139
7.5 Crop output price change after rice price increase...............................140
7.6 Crop output price change after rice price and irrigated land increase.141
7.7 Relative animal output price change after rice price increase..............141
7.8 Relative price change after rice price and irrigated land increase........142
7.9 Impact of input output price changes on the input demand (A)
and impact of single variable input quantity chance on production
output (B).............................................................................................151
7.10 Effect of input price decrease on the supply of agricultural products... 152
7.11 Impacts of major export commodity price increase on the
supply of agricultural products.............................................................156
7.12 Impacts of population increase on the demand and supply.................162
7.13 Impact of income increase on the supply and price of
agricultural sector.................................................................................165
7.14 Average price changes after population and income increase (+ -%). 167
7.15 Impacts of different policy scenarios on the producer and
consumer surpluses.............................................................................169
7.16 Impacts of different policy scenarios on the factor prices.....................170
7.17 Illustration of projection for 2005..........................................................172
7.18 Projected supply change in the crop sector in 2005.............................176
7.19 Projected supply change in the animal sector in 2005.........................177
7.20 Projected price change of some selected crop outputs (+ -%
compared with 1996)............................................................................178
7.21 The shadow price changes on selected production factors.................180
7.22 Projected consumer and producer surplus changes in 2005...............181
|
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| geographic | Hainan Sheng (China) Economic conditions 20th century Hai nan (DE-588)4238805-3 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Hainan Sheng (China) Economic conditions 20th century Hai nan |
| id | DE-604.BV013586098 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:48:27Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3825837823 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009279365 |
| oclc_num | 49867275 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-739 DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-739 DE-12 |
| physical | XIX, 204 S. graph. Darst, Kt. |
| publishDate | 2001 |
| publishDateSearch | 2001 |
| publishDateSort | 2001 |
| publisher | Lit |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Schriften zur ländlichen Entwicklung |
| series2 | Schriften zur ländlichen Entwicklung |
| spelling | Guo, Jianchun Verfasser aut A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China Jianchun Guo Münster [u.a.] Lit 2001 XIX, 204 S. graph. Darst, Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Schriften zur ländlichen Entwicklung 64 Geschichte 1900-2000 Landwirtschaft Mathematisches Modell Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Agriculture and state China Hainan Sheng Mathematical models Agriculture Economic aspects China Hainan Sheng Econometric models Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 gnd rswk-swf Agrarpolitik (DE-588)4000771-6 gnd rswk-swf Ländliche Entwicklung (DE-588)4034450-2 gnd rswk-swf Hainan Sheng (China) Economic conditions 20th century Hai nan (DE-588)4238805-3 gnd rswk-swf Hai nan (DE-588)4238805-3 g Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 s DE-604 Agrarpolitik (DE-588)4000771-6 s Ländliche Entwicklung (DE-588)4034450-2 s Schriften zur ländlichen Entwicklung 64 (DE-604)BV013244346 64 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009279365&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Guo, Jianchun A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China Schriften zur ländlichen Entwicklung Landwirtschaft Mathematisches Modell Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Agriculture and state China Hainan Sheng Mathematical models Agriculture Economic aspects China Hainan Sheng Econometric models Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 gnd Agrarpolitik (DE-588)4000771-6 gnd Ländliche Entwicklung (DE-588)4034450-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4034402-2 (DE-588)4000771-6 (DE-588)4034450-2 (DE-588)4238805-3 |
| title | A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China |
| title_auth | A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China |
| title_exact_search | A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China |
| title_full | A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China Jianchun Guo |
| title_fullStr | A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China Jianchun Guo |
| title_full_unstemmed | A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China Jianchun Guo |
| title_short | A regional non-linear agricultural sector model for the Hainan province, PR China |
| title_sort | a regional non linear agricultural sector model for the hainan province pr china |
| topic | Landwirtschaft Mathematisches Modell Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Agriculture and state China Hainan Sheng Mathematical models Agriculture Economic aspects China Hainan Sheng Econometric models Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 gnd Agrarpolitik (DE-588)4000771-6 gnd Ländliche Entwicklung (DE-588)4034450-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Landwirtschaft Mathematisches Modell Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Agriculture and state China Hainan Sheng Mathematical models Agriculture Economic aspects China Hainan Sheng Econometric models Agrarpolitik Ländliche Entwicklung Hainan Sheng (China) Economic conditions 20th century Hai nan |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009279365&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV013244346 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT guojianchun aregionalnonlinearagriculturalsectormodelforthehainanprovinceprchina |