Organic farming in Europe by 2010: scenarios for the future
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| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Stuttgart
Univ. of Hohenheim, Dep. of Farm Economics
2000
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| Series: | Organic farming in Europe
8 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 87 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3933403073 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Organic farming in Europe by 2010
Autor: Zanoli, Raffaele
Jahr: 2000
Table of contents
Executive summary ¦
Using scenarios as strategic analysis tools i
The method of fuzzy scenarios !i
The scenarios
List of abbreviations vi
Scenario team ¥
Table of contents viii
List of tables x
List of figures x
1 Introduction 1
2 Methods and tools for scenario analysis: a survey 3
2.1 Some definitions 3
2.2 Aims of scenario analysis 4
2.3 Criteria for scenarios evaluation 6
2.4 Steps in scenario analysis 7
2.4.1 General framework of analysis 9
2.4.2 Analysis of the present state 9
2.4.3 Description of possible evolution paths 1°
2.4.4 Definition of the images of the future 1°
2.4.5 Narrative description of the scenarios H
2.5 Methods for developing scenarios H
2.5.1 Intuitive logic 12
2.5.2 Trend impact analysis 13
2.5.3 Cross impact analysis I4
2.6 Methodological framework of the analysis 15
3 Developing interactive fuzzy scenarios for the organic market 17
3.1 The core model: the generating mechanism of the scenarios 20
3.1.1 Scenario team and the framework of analysis 20
3.1.2 Key-factors and influence among the variables 20
3.1.3 Description of the possible evolution paths 29
3.1.4 Definition of the different possible representations of the future 32
viii
4 The scenarios 34
4.1 Scenario narratives 34
4.1.1 Gloomy liberalisation 34
4.1.2 World trade boom 36
4.1.3 Surprise-free scenario (business-as-usual) 38
4.1.4 Fortress Europe 39
4.1.5 Organic paradise 42
4.2 Scenarios graphical representations 44
5 Concluding remarks 53
6 References 58
Annex I: A primer on fuzzy systems 61
Decision analysis 61
Fuzzy systems 63
Fuzzy modelling 65
Definition of variable states 66
Fuzzification function 66
Fuzzy rule base 67
Inference engine 67
Defuzzification method 68
An example 68
Fuzzy scenarios 72
Annex II: Definition of the variables and respective states 74
INTERNAL VARIABLES 74
EXTERNAL VARIABLES 76
Annex III: The fuzzy rule base 77
IX
List of tables
Table 1 Influence matrix: external variables
Table 2 Influence matrix: internal variables
Table 3 The final scenarios and the states of the external variables
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List of figures
Figure 1 A conceptual model of scenarios
Figure 2 Steps of scenario analysis
Figure 3 Characteristics of main methodological approaches for scenario analysis
Figure 4 The process of scenario building
Figure 5 Micro variables sub-system
Figure 6 Meso variables sub-system
Figure 7 Macro variables sub-system
Figure 8 General framework of the organic farming scenario model
Figure 9 Political climate towards organic farming
Figure 10 Direct producer support for organic farming
Figure 11 Knowledge system in organic farming
Figure 12 Organic certification and labelling
Figure 13 A vailability of organic products
Figure 14 Domestic demand for organic products
Figure 15 Domestic supply of organic products
Figure 16 Relative profitability of organic farming
Figure 17 Processing and marketing capacity for organic products
Figure IS Farm gate price of organic products
Figure 19 Consumer price of organic products
Figure 20 Intermediate standards products
Figure 21 Performance of Main Scenarios for Organic Farming in Europe
Figure 22 Classic and fuzzy logic: example of price evaluation.
Figure 23 A general scheme of Fuzzy modelling
Figure 24 Example of a simple Model scheme
Figure 25 Example of fuzzy reasoning
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| discipline | Geowissenschaften Agrarwissenschaft Agrar-/Forst-/Ernährungs-/Haushaltswissenschaft / Gartenbau Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| geographic_facet | Europa |
| id | DE-604.BV013435138 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:45:51Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3933403073 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009168755 |
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| physical | X, 87 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2000 |
| publishDateSearch | 2000 |
| publishDateSort | 2000 |
| publisher | Univ. of Hohenheim, Dep. of Farm Economics |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Organic farming in Europe |
| series2 | Organic farming in Europe |
| spelling | Zanoli, Raffaele Verfasser aut Organic farming in Europe by 2010 scenarios for the future Raffaele Zanoli ; Danilo Gambelli ; Daniela Vairo Stuttgart Univ. of Hohenheim, Dep. of Farm Economics 2000 X, 87 S. Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Organic farming in Europe 8 Organic farming Europe Forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Biologische Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4069484-7 gnd rswk-swf Europa Europa (DE-588)4015701-5 gnd rswk-swf Europa (DE-588)4015701-5 g Biologische Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4069484-7 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Gambelli, Danilo Verfasser aut Vairo, Daniela Verfasser aut Organic farming in Europe 8 (DE-604)BV012783930 8 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009168755&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Zanoli, Raffaele Gambelli, Danilo Vairo, Daniela Organic farming in Europe by 2010 scenarios for the future Organic farming in Europe Organic farming Europe Forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Biologische Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4069484-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4069484-7 (DE-588)4015701-5 |
| title | Organic farming in Europe by 2010 scenarios for the future |
| title_auth | Organic farming in Europe by 2010 scenarios for the future |
| title_exact_search | Organic farming in Europe by 2010 scenarios for the future |
| title_full | Organic farming in Europe by 2010 scenarios for the future Raffaele Zanoli ; Danilo Gambelli ; Daniela Vairo |
| title_fullStr | Organic farming in Europe by 2010 scenarios for the future Raffaele Zanoli ; Danilo Gambelli ; Daniela Vairo |
| title_full_unstemmed | Organic farming in Europe by 2010 scenarios for the future Raffaele Zanoli ; Danilo Gambelli ; Daniela Vairo |
| title_short | Organic farming in Europe by 2010 |
| title_sort | organic farming in europe by 2010 scenarios for the future |
| title_sub | scenarios for the future |
| topic | Organic farming Europe Forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Biologische Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4069484-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Organic farming Europe Forecasting Prognose Biologische Landwirtschaft Europa |
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