The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Dar-es-Salaam
CEEST
1998
|
| Series: | Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology <Dar-es-Salaam>: CEEST book series
11 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XX, 235 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9987612113 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania |c M. J. Mwandosya ; B. S. Nyenzi and M. L. Luhanga |
| 264 | 1 | |a Dar-es-Salaam |b CEEST |c 1998 | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology <Dar-es-Salaam>: CEEST book series |v 11 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Klimaatveranderingen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Ontwikkelingslanden |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Klimaänderung | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climatic changes |x Risk assessment |z Tanzania | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Klimaänderung |0 (DE-588)4164199-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Nyenzi, Buruhani S. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Luhanga, Matthew Laban |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania
Autor: Mwandosya, Mark J
Jahr: 1998
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE V1U
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT xii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xv
1. Climate Change Scenarios xv
2. Assessment of Hydrologie Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation
to Climate Change Impacts in Tanzania xv
3. Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastline xvi
4. Potential Impacts of Climate Change to Grasslands and Livestock
in Tanzania xv|
5. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Production xvii
6. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on
Cotton Production xviii
7. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Production xvin
8. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Tanzania Forests xviii
9. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Malaria Disease xx
1: CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN TANZANIA 1
1.1 Overview of Studies on Climate Change Scenarios 1
1.2 Criteria for the Climate Change Scenarios 1
1.3 Methodology and Data 2
1.3.1 Options for Climate Change Scenarios 2
1.3.2 General Circulation Models 3
1.3.3 Applying Adjustment Statistics to the Base Period 8
1.4 Temperature and Rainfall Changes due to 2xC02 Concentration 12
1.4.1 Annual Temperature Change 12
1.4.2 Annual Rainfall Change 16
1.5 Conclusion 23
1.6 References 24
2: ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGIC RESOURCES VULNERABILITY
AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN
TANZANIA 27
2.1. Introduction 27
2.2 Methodology 28
2.2.1 WATBAL Model Description 30
2.2.2 Procedure of Using the Model 33
2.3 Application of the Model in Selected Basins 33
iii
2.3.1 Ruvu Basin 34
2.3.2 Pangani Basin 39
2.3.3 Rufiji Basin 47
2.4 Discussion of the Results 53
2.5 Possible Adaptation Measures 54
2.6 References: 56
3 THE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE COASTLINE
OF TANZANIA 59
3.1 General Overview 59
3.2 Area of Study 60
3.3 General Meteorology and Ocean Circulation of the Area 63
3.4 Coastal Characteristics 65
3.4.1 Tanga Region 65
3.4.2 Dar es Salaam and Coast Regions 65
3.4.3 Lindi and Mtwara Regions 66
3.5 Analytical Approach 66
3.5.1 Scope of Study 66
3.5.2 Application to Tanga Region 66
3.5.3 Application to Dar es Salaam and Coast Regions 67
3.5.4 Application to Lindi and Mtwara Regions 69
3.5.5 Application to the whole coastline 72
3.6 Climatic Factors 73
3.7 Sea Level Rise Scenarios 73
3.7.1 Aerial Videotape-assisted Vulnerability Analysis (AVVA) 73
3.8 Fieldwork and Estimation of Losses 76
3.8.1 Land Loss Estimates due to Erosion 76
3.8.2 Inundation 79
3.8.3 Estimates of Values at Risk 79
3.8.4 Other Possible Impacts, Protection Options and Costs 81
3.9 Response Strategies and Adaptation 83
3.9.1 Retreat 83
3.9.2 Accommodation 83
3.9.3 Protection 83
3.10 Discussions and Future Work 83
3.11 References 84
4: POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GRASSLANDS
AND LIVESTOCK IN TANZANIA 87
4.1 Overview of Rangeland and Livestock Resources in Tanzania 87
4.1.1 Ecological Zones 88
4.1.2 Physical Regions 88
iv
4.1.3 Rangeland Resources 91
4.1.4 Livestock 93
4.1.5 Climate Change Scenarios 95
4.2 Climate and Vectors of animal diseases 95
4.2.1 Ticks 96
4.2.2 Tsetse Flies 96
4.2.3 Helminths 97
4.2.4 Snails 98
4.2.5 Culicoides 98
4.3 Climate and Pests 98
4.3.1 Red Locust (Nomadscris semptemfascianta) 98
4.3.2 African Armyworms 99
4.4 Methodology 99
4.4.1 Expert Judgement 99
4.4.2 Plant Associations Distribution at 1 x C02 101
4.4.3 Productivity of Plant Associations at 1 x C02 103
4.4.4 Study sites 106
4.4.5 Models 106
4.4.6 Limitations of Expert Judgement 108
4.5 Results of the Analysis 108
4.5.1 Direct Effects on Plant Species Associations 108
4.5.2 Indirect Effects on Plant Species Association 112
4.5.3 Dry Matter Production 113
4.5.4 Livestock Production 116
4.5.5 Vectors of Animal Diseases 118
4.5.6 Pests 118
4.6 Adaptative Alternatives 118
4.6.1 Reactive Adaptative Measures 119
4.6.2 Land use changes 119
4.6.3 Anticipatory Adaptive Measures 119
4.7 Discussions of the Results 122
4.8 References 123
5: POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COFFEE
PRODUCTION IN TANZANIA 133
5.1 Coffee Production Potential in Tanzania 133
5.2 Climate and Soil Requirements for Growth of Coffee 134
5.2.1 Soils
5.2.2 Temperature 134
5.2.3 Rainfall ^35
5.2.4 Wind, Topography Aspect I35
5-2.5 Humidity and Cloud Cover 135
5.2.6 Altitude
V
5.3 Phenology 136
5.4 Diseases and Pests Affecting Coffee 137
5.4.1 Diseases 137
5.4.2 Pests 139
5.5 Leaf Photosynthesis 139
5.6 Methodology 140
5.6.1 Model Formulation 141
5.6.2 The Regression Analysis 141
5.6.3 Results of the Regressions for Lyamungu and Mbozi 142
5.6.4 Impacts on Arabica Coffee 143
5.7 Adaptation strategies 145
5.7.1 Technological potential to adapt 145
5.7.2 Social economic Capability to Adapt 146
5.7.3 Research Needs 147
5.8 References 148
6: POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON
PRODUCTION IN TANZANIA 149
6.1 Cotton Characteristics and its Production Potentials in Tanzania 149
6.1.1 Conditions for Efficient Germination of Cotton 149
6.1.2 Development of Cotton Blant. 150
6.2 Climatic Conditions for Cotton Growth 151
6.2.1 Temperature 151
6.2.2 Light 151
6.2.3 Photoperiodicity 152
6.2.4 Rainfall 152
6.2.5 Air Moisture 153
6.2.6 Wind 153
6.3 Soils Requirements for Growth of Cotton 153
6.4 Sowing Period 154
6.5 Pests and Diseases 154
6.6 Methodology 155
6.6.1 Model Formulation 155
6.6.2 Cotton model Generation at Ukiriguru and at Ilonga 155
6.6.3 Results and Discussion 156
6.7 Adaptation Strategies 156
6.7.1 Changes in land use 157
6.7.2 Changes in management 157
6.8 Recommendations: 158
6.9 References 158
vi
7 POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
MAIZE PRODUCTION IN TANZANIA
7.1 Maize Characteristics and Production Potential in Tanzania
7.1.1 Máize (Zea mays) * °2
7.1.2 Maize Plant Characteristics 162
7.1.3 Rainfall and Water Requirements for Maize 162
7.1.4 Temperature Requirements for Maize 163
7.2 Methodology and Data 163
7.2.1 The Climate Change Scenario 163
7.2.2 Maize Yield Estimates 164
7.2.3 The Ceres-Maize Crop Model 164
7.2.4 Effect of C02 Enrichment 164
7.2.5 Effect on Photosynthesis 165
7.2.6 Effect of Elevated C02 on Evapotranspiration. 165
7.2.7 Limitations of the CERES-Maize Model 166
7.3 Data Requirement 166
7.3.1 Climate Data 166
7.3.2 Soil Data 166
7.3.3 Management Data 167
7.4 Simulation Runs 167
7.4.1 Climate Scenarios 168
7.5 Results 178
7.5.1 Mean Yields 178
7.5.2 Annual Variability 182
7.6 Conclusions 183
7.7 References 184
8: ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
FORESTS IN TANZANIA 187
8.1. Introduction ^87
8.2 Methodology jgg
8.2.1 Preliminary approach jgg
8.2.2 Simulation approach. ^gg
8.2.3 The Study Area
8.2.4 Limitations of the models 192
8.3 Results and Discussion 193
8.3.1 Climate change scenarios ^93
8.3.2 The Distribution of Forest Types and Species
Composition in Tanzania 194
8 ^P; judgA!m?f°n]:orest Types and Distribution at (2xC02) 198
8.3.4 Holdndge Model Prediction of Distribution of
Tanzania Forests under Current Climate and Climate Change 201
vii
8.3.5 Forest Gap Model Prediction of Species Composition,
Structure and Productivity in Kitulangalo Forest Reserve 204
8.4 Possible Adaptation Measures and Strategies 211
8.5 Conclusion and Recommendations 212
8.6 References 213
9: ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON
MALARIA DISEASE 215
9.1 Introduction 215
9.2 Malaria vectors 216
9.3 Climate Conditions 217
9.4 Immunity 218
9.5 Control 219
9.5.1 Environmental control 219
9.5.2 Insecticides 220
9.5.3 Biological Measures 220
9.5.4 Chemotherapy 221
9.5.5 Integrated approach 221
9.6 Urban Malaria 224
9.7 Burden of malaria 224
9.8 Methodology 224
9.8.1 Study area 224
9.8.2 Modelling 225
9.8.3 Vectorial capacity Parameters 225
9.9 Data Collection 228
9.9.1 Adult Mosquito Catching 228
9.9.2 Population of Dar es Salaam 229
9.9.3 House Holds in Dar es Salaam 229
9.10 References 234
|
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| geographic | Tanzania Environmental conditions Tansania (DE-588)4078149-5 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Tanzania Environmental conditions Tansania |
| id | DE-604.BV012858616 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:34:57Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9987612113 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XX, 235 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 1998 |
| publishDateSearch | 1998 |
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| publisher | CEEST |
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| series | Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology <Dar-es-Salaam>: CEEST book series |
| series2 | Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology <Dar-es-Salaam>: CEEST book series |
| spelling | Mwandosya, Mark J. Verfasser aut The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania M. J. Mwandosya ; B. S. Nyenzi and M. L. Luhanga Dar-es-Salaam CEEST 1998 XX, 235 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology <Dar-es-Salaam>: CEEST book series 11 Klimaatveranderingen gtt Ontwikkelingslanden gtt Klimaänderung Climatic changes Risk assessment Tanzania Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf Tanzania Environmental conditions Tansania (DE-588)4078149-5 gnd rswk-swf Tansania (DE-588)4078149-5 g Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s DE-604 Nyenzi, Buruhani S. Verfasser aut Luhanga, Matthew Laban Verfasser aut Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology <Dar-es-Salaam>: CEEST book series 11 (DE-604)BV012990664 11 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008749847&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Mwandosya, Mark J. Nyenzi, Buruhani S. Luhanga, Matthew Laban The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology <Dar-es-Salaam>: CEEST book series Klimaatveranderingen gtt Ontwikkelingslanden gtt Klimaänderung Climatic changes Risk assessment Tanzania Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)4078149-5 |
| title | The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania |
| title_auth | The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania |
| title_exact_search | The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania |
| title_full | The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania M. J. Mwandosya ; B. S. Nyenzi and M. L. Luhanga |
| title_fullStr | The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania M. J. Mwandosya ; B. S. Nyenzi and M. L. Luhanga |
| title_full_unstemmed | The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania M. J. Mwandosya ; B. S. Nyenzi and M. L. Luhanga |
| title_short | The assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in Tanzania |
| title_sort | the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts in tanzania |
| topic | Klimaatveranderingen gtt Ontwikkelingslanden gtt Klimaänderung Climatic changes Risk assessment Tanzania Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Klimaatveranderingen Ontwikkelingslanden Klimaänderung Climatic changes Risk assessment Tanzania Tanzania Environmental conditions Tansania |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008749847&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV012990664 |
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