Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland: evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Bern ; Berlin ; Bruxelles ; Frankfurt a.M. ; New York ; Wien
Lang
2000
|
| Series: | European university studies
Series 5, Economics and management ; 2525 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | IX, 186 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3906763714 0820446238 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland |b evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach |c Alexander E. Kobler |
| 264 | 1 | |a Bern ; Berlin ; Bruxelles ; Frankfurt a.M. ; New York ; Wien |b Lang |c 2000 | |
| 300 | |a IX, 186 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a European university studies : Series 5, Economics and management |v 2525 | |
| 502 | |a Zugl.: Basel, Univ., Diss. | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Ökonometrisches Modell | |
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CONTENTS
1
INTRODUCTION
1
1.1
OVERVIEW
.
1
1.2
ORGANIZATION
.
4
2
THEORY
AND
EMPIRICAL
EVIDENCE
7
2.1
CLOSED-ECONOMY
MODELS
.
8
2.1.1
THEORETICAL
BACKGROUND
.
8
2.1.2
RECENT
EMPIRICAL
EVIDENCE
.
18
2.2
SMALL-OPEN-ECONOMY
MODELS
.
31
2.2.1
THEORY
ON
SMALL
OPEN
ECONOMIES
.
31
2.2.2
TRANSMISSION
OF
SHOCKS
IN
OPEN
ECONOMIES
.
34
2.2.3
EMPIRICAL
EVIDENCE
FOR
OPEN
ECONOMIES
.
35
2.3
ECONOMETRIC
MODELS
FOR
SWITZERLAND
.
38
2.4
SUMMARY
.
43
3
THE
SWISS
ECONOMY
IN
FACTS
AND
FIGURES
45
3.1
DATA
.
46
3.1.1
SWISS
DATA
.
47
3.1.2
WORLD
DATA
.
50
3.2
APPROXIMATION
OF
A
MONTHLY
SWISS
GDP
.
52
3.2.1
STATE-SPACE
SYSTEM
.
53
3.2.2
KALMAN
FILTER
.
55
3.2.3
LIKELIHOOD
FUNCTION
AND
SMOOTHING
.
57
3.2.4
SMOOTHING
.
57
3.2.5
MONTHLY
SWISS
GDP
.
57
3.3
IDENTIFICATION
OF
SWISS
BUSINESS
CYCLES
.
59
3.3.1
THE
BRY-BOSCHAN
PROCEDURE
.
59
3.3.2
SWISS
BUSINESS
CYCLES
.
60
3.4
STYLIZED
FACTS
.
61
3.5
STYLIZED
FIGURES
.
64
3.5.1
STOCHASTIC
TIME-SERIES
PROPERTIES
.
65
3.5.2
FILTERING
ISSUES
.
70
3.5.3
PROPERTIES
OF
SEASONAL
DIFFERENCES
.
71
3.5.4
PROPERTIES
OF
BAND
PASS
FILTERED
SERIES
.
72
3.6
SUMMARY
.
74
4
AN
INTRODUCTION
TO
STRUCTURED
VAR
ECONOMETRICS
77
4.1
THE
VECTOR
AUTOREGRESSIVE
METHODOLOGY
.
78
4.1.1
IMPULSE
RESPONSE
FUNCTIONS
.
81
4.1.2
BAYESIAN
ERROR-BANDS
FOR
IRF
.
83
4.1.3
FORECAST
ERROR
VARIANCE
DECOMPOSITION
.
85
4.1.4
OBJECTIONS
TO
UNRESTRICTED
VARS
.
86
4.1.5
VARS
FOR
POLICY
ANALYSIS
.
87
4.2
STRUCTURAL
APPROACHES
TO
VAR
MODELLING
.
88
4.2.1
TERMINOLOGY
.
89
4.2.2
STRUCTURAL
IDENTIFICATION
.
89
4.2.3
ESTIMATION
OF
SVARS
.
92
4.2.4
FIML
ESTIMATION
IN
THE
SIMS-BERNANKE
SETUP
.
93
4.3
BLOCK
EXOGENEITY
.
94
4.3.1
CONCEPT
OF
A
BLOCK
EXOGENOUS
STRUCTURE
.
95
4.3.2
ESTIMATION
AND
INFERENCE
WITH
BLOCK
EXOGENEITY
.
96
4.4
UNIT
ROOTS
AND
STATISTICAL
INFERENCE
.
99
4.4.1
UNIT
ROOTS
AND
THEIR
RELEVANCE
.
100
4.4.2
CLASSICAL
VS.
BAYESIAN
ARGUMENTATION
.
101
4.4.3
BASICS
OF
BAYESIAN
INFERENCE
.
103
4.5
SUMMARY
.
104
5
A
CORRECTLY
IDENTIFIED
SVAR
FOR
SWITZERLAND
107
5.1
BACKGROUND
INFORMATION
ON
DATA
SOURCES
.
109
5.2
ESTIMATION
BY
CHOLESKY
DECOMPOSITION
.
110
5.2.1
TECHNIQUE
.
110
5.2.2
RESULTS
APPLYING
CHOLESKY
DECOMPOSITION
.
ILL
5.3
BLOCK
EXOGENOUS
STRUCTURES
IN
SVAR
.
115
5.3.1
TESTING
FOR
BLOCK
EXOGENEITY
.
116
5.3.2
SPECIFICATION
.
117
5.3.3
IDENTIFICATION
.
120
5.3.4
ESTIMATED
CONTEMPORANEOUS
COEFFICIENTS
.
121
5.3.5
TESTING
SAMPLE
STABILITY
.
124
5.3.6
TESTING
OVERIDENTIFYING
RESTRICTIONS
.
125
5.4
INTERPRETING
THE
RESULTS
.
125
5.4.1
DYNAMIC
EFFECTS
OF
SWISS
MONETARY
POLICY
.
125
5.4.2
DYNAMIC
RESPONSES
TO
FOREIGN
SHOCKS
.
130
VIII
5.4.3
VARIANCE
DECOMPOSITION
OF
SWISS
OUTPUT
.
132
5.4.4
SUPPLEMENTARY
VARIANCE
DECOMPOSITIONS
.
137
5.5
SUMMARY
.
141
6
SVARS
AS
AN
ECONOMIC
POLICY
TOOL
IN
SWITZERLAND
145
6.1
EVALUATING
THE
PAST
.
146
6.1.1
HISTORICAL
DECOMPOSITION
.
146
6.1.2
SWISS
STAGNATION
IN
THE
90S
REEVALUATED
.
146
6.2
FORECASTING
WITH
SVARS
.
150
6.2.1
EX
POST
MEDIUM-TERM
FORECAST
EVALUATION
.
150
6.2.2
DECOMPOSITION
OF
THE
FORECAST
ERROR
.
152
6.3
SUMMARY
.
153
7
CONCLUSIONS
155
7.1
SYNOPSIS
.
155
7.2
OUTLOOK
.
157
REFERENCES
161
IX |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Kobler, Alexander E. |
| author_facet | Kobler, Alexander E. |
| author_role | aut |
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| dewey-full | 338.5/4/09494 |
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| dewey-search | 338.5/4/09494 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.5 14 49494 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Thesis Book |
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| genre_facet | Hochschulschrift Strukturelles vektor-autoagressives Modell |
| geographic | Schweiz Switzerland Economic conditions 1945- Econometric models Schweiz (DE-588)4053881-3 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Schweiz Switzerland Economic conditions 1945- Econometric models |
| id | DE-604.BV012792112 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-20T03:48:29Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3906763714 0820446238 |
| language | English |
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| open_access_boolean | |
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| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-188 |
| physical | IX, 186 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2000 |
| publishDateSearch | 2000 |
| publishDateSort | 2000 |
| publisher | Lang |
| record_format | marc |
| series | European university studies |
| series2 | European university studies : Series 5, Economics and management |
| spelling | Kobler, Alexander E. Verfasser aut Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach Alexander E. Kobler Bern ; Berlin ; Bruxelles ; Frankfurt a.M. ; New York ; Wien Lang 2000 IX, 186 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier European university studies : Series 5, Economics and management 2525 Zugl.: Basel, Univ., Diss. Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Business cycles Switzerland Econometric models Transmissionsmechanismus (DE-588)4117242-5 gnd rswk-swf Strukturelles vektor-autoregressives Modell (DE-588)4288535-8 gnd rswk-swf Internationaler Konjunkturzusammenhang (DE-588)4027406-8 gnd rswk-swf Schweiz Switzerland Economic conditions 1945- Econometric models Schweiz (DE-588)4053881-3 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Strukturelles vektor-autoagressives Modell gnd rswk-swf Schweiz (DE-588)4053881-3 g Internationaler Konjunkturzusammenhang (DE-588)4027406-8 s Transmissionsmechanismus (DE-588)4117242-5 s Strukturelles vektor-autoagressives Modell f DE-604 Strukturelles vektor-autoregressives Modell (DE-588)4288535-8 s DE-188 European university studies Series 5, Economics and management ; 2525 (DE-604)BV000001798 2525 DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008700960&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Kobler, Alexander E. Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach European university studies Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Business cycles Switzerland Econometric models Transmissionsmechanismus (DE-588)4117242-5 gnd Strukturelles vektor-autoregressives Modell (DE-588)4288535-8 gnd Internationaler Konjunkturzusammenhang (DE-588)4027406-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4117242-5 (DE-588)4288535-8 (DE-588)4027406-8 (DE-588)4053881-3 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach |
| title_auth | Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach |
| title_exact_search | Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach |
| title_full | Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach Alexander E. Kobler |
| title_fullStr | Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach Alexander E. Kobler |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach Alexander E. Kobler |
| title_short | Sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Switzerland |
| title_sort | sources and dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in switzerland evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach |
| title_sub | evidence from a structural vector autoregressive approach |
| topic | Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Business cycles Switzerland Econometric models Transmissionsmechanismus (DE-588)4117242-5 gnd Strukturelles vektor-autoregressives Modell (DE-588)4288535-8 gnd Internationaler Konjunkturzusammenhang (DE-588)4027406-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Business cycles Switzerland Econometric models Transmissionsmechanismus Strukturelles vektor-autoregressives Modell Internationaler Konjunkturzusammenhang Schweiz Switzerland Economic conditions 1945- Econometric models Hochschulschrift Strukturelles vektor-autoagressives Modell |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008700960&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000001798 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kobleralexandere sourcesanddynamicsofmacroeconomicfluctuationsinswitzerlandevidencefromastructuralvectorautoregressiveapproach |