Holdings: Business forecasting

Business forecasting:

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Hanke, John E. (Author), Reitsch, Arthur G. (Author)
Format:	Book
Language:	English
Published:	Upper Saddle River, NJ Prentice-Hall 1998
Edition:	6. ed.
Subjects:	Administracao de empresas Business forecasting Prognose Management Prognoseverfahren Statistik
Online Access:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Physical Description:	XVII, 581 S. graph. Darst.
ISBN:	0137607458

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MARC


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Record in the Search Index

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adam_text	Contents Preface xv Acknowledgments xvii 1 INTRODUCTION TO FORECASTING 1 History of Forecasting 1 Need for Forecasting 2 Types of Forecasts 4 Macroeconomic Forecasting 4 Choosing a Forecasting Method 5 Forecasting Steps 6 Managing the Forecasting Process 7 Computer Forecasting Packages 8 Summary 9 Case Study 1.1: Mr. Tux 10 Case Study 1.2: Consumer Credit Counseling 10 Introduction to the Minitab Computer Package 11 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 12 Appendix—Dedicated Forecasting Software 13 Selected Bibliography 17 2 A REVIEW OF BASIC STATISTICAL CONCEPTS 18 Descriptive Statistics 18 Probability Distributions 21 Sampling Distributions 26 vii viii Contents Estimation 28 Hypothesis Testing 29 Goodness of Fit Test 34 Correlation Analysis 36 Scatter Diagrams 37 Correlation Coefficient 40 Application to Management 44 Glossary 45 Key Formulas 46 Problems 47 Case Study 2.1: Alcam Electronics 52 Case Study 2.2: Mr. Tux 55 Minitab Computer Package 56 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 59 Selected Bibliography 61 3 DATA SOURCES 63 Introduction 63 Data Types 64 Data Sources 65 Secondary Data Sources 66 External Sources 66 Private Data 66 Primary Data Source 69 Application to Management 75 Glossary 77 Problems 77 Case Study 3.1: Argyl Food Products 78 Case Study 3.2: Solomon s Jewelry 81 Case Study 3.3: Mr. Tux 82 Case Study 3.4: Consumer Credit Counseling 83 Minitab Computer Package 84 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 86 Selected Bibliography 87 4 EXPLORING DATA PATTERNS AND CHOOSING A FORECASTING TECHNIQUE 88 Time Series Components 89 Exploring Data Patterns with Autocorrelation Analysis 91 Choosing a Forecasting Technique 106 Forecasting Techniques for Stationary Data 107 Contents jx Forecasting Techniques for Data with a Trend 108 Forecasting Techniques for Data with Seasonality 108 Forecasting Techniques for Cyclical Series 109 Other Factors to Consider When Choosing a Forecasting Technique 110 Measuring Forecasting Error 111 Determining the Adequacy of a Forecasting Technique 115 Application to Management 116 Glossary 118 Key Formulas 118 Problems 119 Case Study 4.1: Murphy Brothers Furniture 124 Case Study 4.2: Mr. Tux 127 Case Study 4.3: Consumer Credit Counseling 129 Minitab Computer Package 130 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 132 Bibliography 135 5 MOVING AVERAGES AND SMOOOTHING METHODS 136 Naive Models 137 Averaging Methods 141 Simple Averages 141 Moving Averages 142 Double Moving Average 145 Exponential Smoothing Methods 148 Tracking 154 Double Exponential Smoothing 156 Exponential Smoothing Adjusted for Trend: Holt s Method 162 Exponential Smoothing Adjusted for Trend and Seasonal Variation: Winter s Model 165 Application to Management 170 Glossary 171 Key Formulas 171 Problems 172 Case Study 5.1: The Solar Alternative Company 177 Case Study 5.2: Mr. Tux 179 Case Study 5.3: Consumer Credit Counseling 180 Case Study 5.4: Five Year Revenue Projection for Downtown Radiology 180 Minitab Computer Package 189 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 190 Selected Bibliography 192 x Contents 6 REGRESSION ANALYSIS 193 Regression Line 195 Standard Error of Estimate 198 Predicting Y 199 j Coefficient of Determination 203 Residuals 206 Hypothesis Testing 210 Computer Output 213 Variable Transformations 216 Application to Management 218 Glossary 223 Key Formulas 223 j Problems 224 Case Study 6.1: Tiger Transport 231 Case Study 6.2: Butcher Products, Inc. 234 Case Study 6.3: Ace Personnel Department 236 Case Study 6.4: Mr. Tux 237 Case Study 6.5: Consumer Credit Counseling 238 Minitab Computer Package 239 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 241 Selected Bibliography 242 7 MULTIPLE REGRESSION 243 Predictor Variables 243 Correlation Matrix 244 Multiple Regression Equation 245 Regression Coefficients 248 Statistical Inference in Multiple Regression 249 Residuals 250 Standard Error of Estimate 252 Computer Output 252 Dummy Variables 254 Validation of the Model 258 Heteroscedasticity 259 Collinearity 259 Selecting the Best Regression Equation 262 All Possible Regressions 265 Stepwise Regression 267 Final Notes on Stepwise Regression 272 Using Regression to Forecast Seasonal Data 272 Econometric Forecasting 275 Overfitting 277 Application to Management 277 Contents xi Glossary 279 Key Formulas 279 Problems 280 Case Study 7.1: The Bond Market 287 Case Study 7.2: Restaurant Sales 290 Case Study 7.3: Mr. Tux 293 Case Study 7.4: Consumer Credit Counseling 295 Minitab Computer Package 297 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 298 Selected Bibliography 301 8 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 302 Decomposition 303 Price Index 304 Trend 307 Trend Curves 310 Cyclical Variation 313 Long Term Forecasting 320 Seasonal Variation 321 Seasonally Adjusted Data 325 Short Term Components 326 Seasonal Trend 326 Cyclical and Irregular Variations 327 Seasonal Forecasting 332 The Census II Decomposition Method 333 Application of Management 334 Glossary 335 Key Formulas 336 Problems 336 Case Study 8.1: The Small Engine Doctor 341 Case Study 8.2: Mr. Tux 343 Case Study 8.3: Consumer Credit Counseling 347 Case Study 8.4: AAA Washington 348 Minitab Computer Package 350 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 353 Selected Bibliography 356 9 REGRESSION OF TIME SERIES DATA 357 The Problem of Heteroscedasticity When Regressing Time Series Data 357 The Problem of Serial Correlation When Regressing Time Series Data 358 Durbin Watson Test for Serial Correlation 362 xii Contents Solutions to Serial Correlation Problems 365 Model Specification Error (Omitting a Variable) 366 Regression of Percentage Changes 369 Autoregressive Models 374 Generalized Least Squares 374 First Differences 377 Iterative Approach 377 Application to Management 380 Glossary 381 Key Formulas 381 Problems 382 Case Study 9.1: Company of Your Choice 388 Case Study 9.2: Business Activity Index for Spokane County 389 Case Study 9.3: Mr. Tux 395 Case Study 9.4: Consumer Credit Counseling 396 Case Study 9.5: AAA Washington 397 Minitab Computer Package 400 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 401 TSP Example 403 Selected Bibliography 406 10 THE BOX JENKINS (ARIMA) METHODOLOGY 407 Box Jenkins Technique 407 Partial Autocorrelations 412 Autoregressive Model 412 Moving Average Models 414 Autoregressive Moving Average Models 415 Applying the Methodology 416 Stage 1: Model Identification 416 Stage 2: Model Estimation and Testing of Model Adequacy 416 Stage 3: Forecasting with the Model 418 A Seasonal Analysis 441 Exponential Smoothing 452 Advantages and Disadvantages 453 Application to Management 454 Glossary 456 Key Formulas 456 Problems 457 Case Study 10.1: Restaurant Sales 468 Case Study 10.2: Mr. Tux 469 Case Study 10.3: Consumer Credit Counseling 471 Case Study 10.4: The Lydia E. Pinkham Medicine Company 472 Contents xiii Case Study 10.5: Daily Demand for Trout Tags 475 Minitab Computer Package 488 Forecasting Using Spreadsheets 490 Selected Bibliography 493 11 JUDGMENTAL ELEMENTS IN FORECASTING 494 Judgmental Forecasting 494 Growth Curves 496 The Delphi Method 497 Scenario Writing 497 Combining Forecasts 498 Forecasting and Neural Networks 499 Summary of Judgmental Forecasting 501 Other Judgmental Elements in Forecasting 502 Managing the Forecasting Process 507 The Forecasting Process 508 Monitoring Forecasts 509 Forecasting Steps Reviewed 514 Forecasting Responsibility 515 Forecasting Costs 516 Selling Management on Forecasting 516 Forecasting and the MIS System 517 The Future of Forecasting 517 Glossary 518 Key Formula 518 Case Study 11.1: Boundary Electronics 518 Case Study 11.2: Golden Gardens Restaurant 519 Case Study 11.3: Busby Associates 520 Case Study 11.4: Mr. Tux 525 Case Study 11.5: Consumer Credit Counseling 527 Case Study 11.6: The Lydia E. Pinkham Medicine Company Revisited 527 Selected Bibliography 531 APPENDIXES 532 A DERIVATIONS 533 B DATA FOR CASE STUDY 7.1 535 C TABLES 538 D DATA SETS AND DATABASE 551 INDEX 575
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title	Business forecasting
title_auth	Business forecasting
title_exact_search	Business forecasting
title_full	Business forecasting John E. Hanke ; Arthur G. Reitsch
title_fullStr	Business forecasting John E. Hanke ; Arthur G. Reitsch
title_full_unstemmed	Business forecasting John E. Hanke ; Arthur G. Reitsch
title_short	Business forecasting
title_sort	business forecasting
topic	Administracao de empresas larpcal Business forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd
topic_facet	Administracao de empresas Business forecasting Prognose Management Prognoseverfahren Statistik
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