Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies: managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
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Format: | Buch |
Sprache: | German |
Veröffentlicht: |
München [u.a.]
Weltforum-Verl.
1999
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Schriftenreihe: | Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung <München>: IFO-Studien zur Entwicklungsforschung
34 |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | Zugl.: München, Univ., Diss., 1998 |
Beschreibung: | XII, 328, XXII S. |
ISBN: | 3803904900 |
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adam_text | iii
Overview
Preface i
Overview iii
Table of Contents iv
Index of Tables x
Index of Figures xi
A. Introduction: 1
The Transition Crisis and the Economics of Transition
B. Conditions at the Microeconomic Level:
Financial Underdevelopment and Microeconomic Distortions 31
I The Role of the Financial Sector for Stability and Growth 35
II Banking Sectors in FSU Economies:
Credit Allocation in Transition 59
III Enterprises in FSU Economies
Corporate Governance in Transition 85
IV Transmission Mechanisms in FSU Economies:
Monetary Policy in Transition 117
C. Arrears, Soft Budget Constraints and Endogenous Money 143
V. The Emergence of Arrears in FSU Economies 149
VI Systemic Change, Collusive Arrears and Credibility 183
VI A Microeconomic Explanation for the Macroeconomic Effects of Arrears 207
D. Barter, Hard Budget Constraints and Endogenous Velocity 247
VIII Monetary Disruptions and the Emergence of Barter in FSU Economies 251
IX Modelling Barter and Demonetisation in FSU Economies 279
E. Conclusions: 311
Questions, Results and Policy Implications
References I
iv
Table of Contents
A. Introduction
The Transformation Crisis and the Economics of Transition 1
1. BREAKDOWN AND INITIAL HOPES 2
2. THE TRANSFORMATION CRISIS: THE STYLISED FACTS 4
2.1 Macroeconomic Disruptions 4
2.2 Macroeconomic Policies 7
2.3 Maladjustment at the Microeconomic Level 9
2.4 Open Questions 12
3. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSITION CRISIS 14
3.1 Keynesian Demand Explanations 14
3.2 Neoclassical Supply Side Explanations 16
3.3 Post Keynesian Credit Crunch Theories 17
3.4 Monetarist Answers 18
3.5 Conclusions 20
4. THE MICROECONOMICS OF TRANSITION 21
5. THE APPROACH OF THE PRESENT STUDY 23
B. Conditions at the Microeconomic Level:
Financial Underdevelopment and
Microeconomic Distortions 31
I. The Role of the Financial Sector for Stability and Growth 35
1. INTRODUCTION 36
2. THE ROLE OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IN A MARKET ECONOMY 38
2.1 Capital Allocation 38
2.2 Corporate Governance 40
2.3 Transmission of Monetary Impulses 46
3. THE ROLE OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IN A PUNNED ECONOMY 48
3.1 Institutional Features of Post Soviet Financial Systems 49
3.2 Accomplishment of the Tasks Under Central Planning 50
3.3 Macroeconomic Stability under Central Planning 51
4. THE ROLE OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IN THE TRANSITION 53
4.1 Stabilisation 53
4.2 Privatisation and Restructuring 54
4.3 The Sequencing Problem 55
5. CONCLUSIONS 56
V
II. Banking Sectors in FSU Economies
Credit Allocation in Transition 59
1. INTRODUCTION 60
2. EARLY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BANKING SECTOR 62
2.1 From Rigid Planning to the Gorbatchev Reforms 62
2.2 Price Liberalisation and Banking Sector Expansion 63
2.3 The Break up of the Ruble Zone 65
3. MICROECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR AND OPERATIONAL PROBLEMS 67
3.1 A Taxonomy of Banks 67
3.2 Corporate Governance in Banks 70
3.3 Problems of Credit Allocation 71
4. MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SYSTEMIC WEAKNESSES 74
4.1 Financial Repression: Regulations and Rules of Behaviour 74
4.2 Lending Boom and Credit Crunch 76
4.3 Bad credit and Perverse Incentives 79
4.4 The Interest Wedge and Disintermediation 80
4.5 Credit Rationing and Stagnation 81
5. CONCLUSIONS 82
III. Enterprises in FSU Economies
Corporate Governance in Transition 85
1. INTRODUCTION 86
2. EARLY DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTCOMES OF PRIVATISATION 87
2.1 Enterprises Under Central Planning 87
2.2 Methods of Privatisation 89
2.3 Privatisation Outcomes 92
3. HYPOTHESES OF ENTERPRISE BEHAVIOUR 94
3.1 Enterprises are Not Allowed (The May not Hypothesis) 94
3.2 Enterprises are Not Able (The Cannot Hypothesis) 97
3.3 Enterprises are Not Willing (The Will not Hypothesis) 99
4. A SYNTHESIS: THE SURVIVAL ORIENTED ENTERPRISE 102
4.1 Macroeconomic Instability and Uncertainty 104
4.2 Inter Enterprise Coordination 106
4.3 Intra Enterprises Cooperation 109
5. CONCLUSIONS 112
vi
IV. Transmission Mechanisms in FSU Economies
Monetary Policy in Transition 117
1. INTRODUCTION 118
2. THEORIES OF MONETARY TRANSMISSION 119
2.1 The Money View 119
2.2 The Credit View 123
2.3 The Developing Countries Perspective 126
3. TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS IN TRANSITION 130
3.1 Difficulties in the Application of Theories 130
3.2 Impediments to Monetary Transmission 131
3.3 Possible Transmission Processes in FSU Transition 133
4. MONETARY POLICY IN TRANSITION 135
4.1 Policy Objectives 135
4.2 The Choice of Instruments 137
5. CONCLUSIONS 139
C. Arrears, Soft Budget Constraints and
Endogenous Money 143
V. The Emergence of Arrears in FSU Economies 149
1. INTRODUCTION 150
2. THE LEGACY OF THE PAYMENTS SYSTEM:
A TECHNICAL APPROACH 152
2.1 Inertia of Payments System Procedures 153
2.2 Payments System Inefficiencies and Float 156
2.3 Abundance of Non Cash versus Shortage of Cash 161
3. CREDITOR DEBTOR RELATIONS:
A PROPERTY RIGHTS APPROACH 165
3.1 Bankruptcy Laws and Non Enforceability of Property Rights 165
3.2 Relationships Between Enterprises and Banks 167
3.3 Creditor Passivity: Missing Incentives 169
4. LOBBIES AND IMPLICIT CONTRACTS:
A POLITICAL ECONOMY APPROACH 171
4.1 The Struggle over the Central Bank 172
4.2 Tax Arrears and Implicit Contracts 174
4.3 Wage Arrears: Ex Post Adjustment versus Inflationary Potential 176
5. CONCLUSIONS 178
vii
VI. Systemic Change, Collusive Arrears and Credibility 183
1. INTRODUCTION 184
2. THE MODEL OF REFERENCE 187
2.1 Decision Rules of Enterprises 187
2.2 Formation of Rational Expectations 188
2.3 The Impact of Stabilisation on Adjustment and Arrears 190
2.4 Conclusions from the Model 192
3. CAUSES OF THE LACK OF CREDIBILITY 194
3.1 The Reputation of Monetary Policy Makers 194
3.2 The Structure of the Economy 196
3.3 The Nature of the Credit Crunch 197
4. AN EXPLICIT MECHANISM OF COLLUSION 198
4.1 Non Cooperative Games and Anti Social Behaviour 199
4.2 A Formalisation of Contagion 200
4.3 Path Dependency and the Role of Political Leadership 201
5. CONCLUSIONS 203
VII. A Microeconomic Explanation for the
Macroeconomic Effects of Arrears 207
1. INTRODUCTION 208
2. CONDITIONS AT THE MICROECONOMIC LEVEL 211
2.1 Ownership Structures and Intra enterprise Cooperation 212
2.2 Survival Orientation and Inter enterprise Coordination 214
2.3 The Passivity of the Banking System 217
3. MICROECONOMIC DECISION MAKING DURING TRANSITION 220
3.1 Assumptions 220
3.2 The Scheme 222
3.3 Results and Microeconomic Implications 227
4. A MACROECONOMIC MODEL OF THE POST SOVIET ECONOMY 229
4.1 Assumptions 229
4.2 The Model 231
4.3 Results and Macroeconomic Implications 232
5. ACTIVE MONETARY POLICY 233
5.1 Raising Interest Rates 233
5.2 Monetary Restraint 234
5.3 Imposing a Ban on Arrears 236
6. CONCLUSIONS AND A PROPOSAL FOR A SHORT TERM PROGRAMME 238
viii
D. Barter, Hard Budget Constraints and
Endogenous Velocity 247
VIII. Monetary Disruptions and the Emergence of
Barter in FSU Economies 251
1. INTRODUCTION 252
2. THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS ABOUT MONEY AND BARTER 258
3. PUSH FACTORS OF BARTERISATION 263
3.1 Dual Money System, Cash Shortages and Capital Flight 263
3.2 Taxing Procedures, Tax Evasion and Disintermediation 266
4. PULL FACTORS OF BARTERISATION: 268
4.1 Payment Inefficiencies, Banks and Fraud 268
4.2 Prepayment and Credit Crunch 270
4.3 Arrears and Survival Oriented Enterprises 273
5. CONCLUSIONS 274
IX. Modelling Barter and Demonetisation
in FSU Economies 279
1. INTRODUCTION 280
2. CAUSES OF BARTERISATION 286
2.1 Push Factors of Barterisation 287
2.2 Pull Factors of Barterisation: 289
3. A MONETARY MODEL OF PULL FACTORS 291
3.1 Assumptions 291
3.2 The Model 295
3.3 A Simulation 297
4. A MONETARY MODEL OF PUSH FACTORS 298
4.1 Assumptions 299
4.2 The Model 301
4.3 A Simulation 304
5. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 305
ix
E. Conclusions
Questions, Results and Policy Implications 311
1. FACTS AND QUESTIONS 312
2. THE RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS 313
2.1 Introduction 313
2.2 Financial Underdevelopment and Microeconomic Distortions 313
2.3 Arrears, Soft Budget Constraints and Money Endogeneity 316
2.4 Barter, Hard Budget Constraints and Endogenous Velocity 317
2.5 Conclusions 319
3. REFORMING MACROECONOMIC POLICY 320
4. REFORMS AT THE MICROECONOMIC LEVEL 322
4.1 Approaches to Banking Sector Restructuring 323
4.2 Approaches to Enterprise Sector Restructuring 326
5. OUTLOOK 327
X
Index of Tables
Table A. 1: Growth Rates of Real GDP 1992 97 4
Table A.2: Index of Real Output 1992 97 (1991=100) 5
Table A.3: Inflation Rates 1992 97 (year end) 5
Table A.4: Velocity and Real Broad Money and Monetisation 6
Table A.5: Government Deficits 1992 97 7
Table A.6: Tax Revenues 1992 97 in % of GDP 8
Table A.7: Domestic Credit (end year) (% change) 1992 97 8
Iab_|g_AJL Investment, Unemployment and Productivity 10
Table A.9: Inter Enterprise Arrears 1992 94; in % of broad money 11
Table A. 10: Proportion of Barter Transactions in Russian Industry 1993 97 12
xi
Index of Figures
Figure VI.1: Path Dependency and Political Leadership 203
Figure VI.2: Single Stable Equilibrium 203
Figure VI.3: Bandwagon Effect 203
Figure VII.1: A Circular System with Arrears and Viable Firms 210
Figure VII.2: A Linear Industrial Structure 221
Figure VII.3: Russia 1993 95 Index of Prices and Trade Credit 240
Figure VII.4: Russia 1992 Inflation, Arrears and Money Real Indexes 240
Figure VII.5: Kazakstan 1995 96 Real Arrears and Inflation 241
Figure VII 6: Russia 1993 95 Real Indexes 241
Figure VIII.1: Share of Barter Turnover 1992 97 253
Figure VIII.2: Diffusion Indexes 253
Figure VIII.3: Barter Share in Turnover 254
Figure VIII.4: Alternative Means of Settlement Share in Turnover 254
Figure IX. 1: FSU 1993 95 Growth of Money Supply and Prices 281
Figure IX.2: FSU 1993 95 Growth of Velocity 281
Figure IX.3: Russia 1992 95 Coefficient of Monetisation and Barter 286
Figure IX.4: Pull Factors of Barterisation A Simulation 298
Figure IX.5: Push Factors of Barterisation A Simulation 298
Figure IX.6: Push Factors of Barterisation Optimal Barter Share 301
|
any_adam_object | 1 |
author | Poser, Jan Amrit 1970- |
author_GND | (DE-588)120975661 |
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building | Verbundindex |
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callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
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callnumber-search | HC336.27.P663 1999 |
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dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
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dewey-search | 330.947 |
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dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften Geographie |
format | Book |
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genre | (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content |
genre_facet | Hochschulschrift |
geographic | Former Soviet republics -- Economic conditions Former Soviet republics -- Economic policy Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 gnd |
geographic_facet | Former Soviet republics -- Economic conditions Former Soviet republics -- Economic policy Sowjetunion |
id | DE-604.BV012395306 |
illustrated | Not Illustrated |
indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:26:50Z |
institution | BVB |
isbn | 3803904900 |
language | German |
oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-008408429 |
oclc_num | 41069425 |
open_access_boolean | |
owner | DE-739 DE-29 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-20 DE-12 DE-M122 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-521 DE-188 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR |
owner_facet | DE-739 DE-29 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-20 DE-12 DE-M122 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-521 DE-188 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR |
physical | XII, 328, XXII S. |
publishDate | 1999 |
publishDateSearch | 1999 |
publishDateSort | 1999 |
publisher | Weltforum-Verl. |
record_format | marc |
series | Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung <München>: IFO-Studien zur Entwicklungsforschung |
series2 | Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung <München>: IFO-Studien zur Entwicklungsforschung |
spelling | Poser, Jan Amrit 1970- Verfasser (DE-588)120975661 aut Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union von Jan Amrit Poser München [u.a.] Weltforum-Verl. 1999 XII, 328, XXII S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung <München>: IFO-Studien zur Entwicklungsforschung 34 Zugl.: München, Univ., Diss., 1998 Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd rswk-swf BARTER unbist CORPORATIONS unbist ECONOMIC CONDITIONS unbist ECONOMIC REFORM unbist ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION unbist Economische ontwikkeling gtt FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS unbist MONETARY POLICY unbist RUSSIAN FEDERATION unbist Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Monetary policy -- Former Soviet Republics Finance -- Former Soviet republics Corporate governance -- Former Soviet republics Nachfolgestaaten (DE-588)4328855-8 gnd rswk-swf Systemtransformation (DE-588)4060633-8 gnd rswk-swf Strukturkrise (DE-588)4183808-7 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftssystem (DE-588)4117663-7 gnd rswk-swf Former Soviet republics -- Economic conditions Former Soviet republics -- Economic policy Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 g Nachfolgestaaten (DE-588)4328855-8 s Wirtschaftssystem (DE-588)4117663-7 s Systemtransformation (DE-588)4060633-8 s DE-604 Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 b Strukturkrise (DE-588)4183808-7 s Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 s Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung <München>: IFO-Studien zur Entwicklungsforschung 34 (DE-604)BV002593060 34 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008408429&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
spellingShingle | Poser, Jan Amrit 1970- Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung <München>: IFO-Studien zur Entwicklungsforschung Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd BARTER unbist CORPORATIONS unbist ECONOMIC CONDITIONS unbist ECONOMIC REFORM unbist ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION unbist Economische ontwikkeling gtt FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS unbist MONETARY POLICY unbist RUSSIAN FEDERATION unbist Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Monetary policy -- Former Soviet Republics Finance -- Former Soviet republics Corporate governance -- Former Soviet republics Nachfolgestaaten (DE-588)4328855-8 gnd Systemtransformation (DE-588)4060633-8 gnd Strukturkrise (DE-588)4183808-7 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd Wirtschaftssystem (DE-588)4117663-7 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)2128486-6 (DE-588)4328855-8 (DE-588)4060633-8 (DE-588)4183808-7 (DE-588)4066512-4 (DE-588)4117663-7 (DE-588)4077548-3 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
title | Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union |
title_auth | Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union |
title_exact_search | Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union |
title_full | Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union von Jan Amrit Poser |
title_fullStr | Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union von Jan Amrit Poser |
title_full_unstemmed | Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union von Jan Amrit Poser |
title_short | Microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies |
title_sort | microeconomic conditions and macroeconomic disruptions in transition economies managing the transformation crisis in the former soviet union |
title_sub | managing the transformation crisis in the former Soviet Union |
topic | Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd BARTER unbist CORPORATIONS unbist ECONOMIC CONDITIONS unbist ECONOMIC REFORM unbist ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION unbist Economische ontwikkeling gtt FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS unbist MONETARY POLICY unbist RUSSIAN FEDERATION unbist Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Monetary policy -- Former Soviet Republics Finance -- Former Soviet republics Corporate governance -- Former Soviet republics Nachfolgestaaten (DE-588)4328855-8 gnd Systemtransformation (DE-588)4060633-8 gnd Strukturkrise (DE-588)4183808-7 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd Wirtschaftssystem (DE-588)4117663-7 gnd |
topic_facet | Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten BARTER CORPORATIONS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC REFORM ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION Economische ontwikkeling FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MONETARY POLICY RUSSIAN FEDERATION Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Monetary policy -- Former Soviet Republics Finance -- Former Soviet republics Corporate governance -- Former Soviet republics Nachfolgestaaten Systemtransformation Strukturkrise Wirtschaftsreform Wirtschaftssystem Former Soviet republics -- Economic conditions Former Soviet republics -- Economic policy Sowjetunion Hochschulschrift |
url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008408429&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
volume_link | (DE-604)BV002593060 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT poserjanamrit microeconomicconditionsandmacroeconomicdisruptionsintransitioneconomiesmanagingthetransformationcrisisintheformersovietunion |