Market magic: riding the greatest bull market of the century
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York [u.a.]
Wiley
1998
|
| Series: | Wiley investment series
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Publisher description Table of Contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVII, 252 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0471197599 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface vii
Acknowledgments xi
Part One The Evolution of Discovery:
Technical Underpinnings of the Greatest
Bull Market of the Twentieth Century
Chapter 1 U.S. Bull Market Extension?
There Is Historic Precedent 3
Setting the Stage 4
Background of Low Interest Rates 4
Advance Decline Line 7
Record Bull Market Advances without 10 Percent Reversals 9
Record Bull Market Advances Add Fuel 11
Capital/Consumer Ratio 12
Discount Rate Study: Three Steps and Stumble 15
Consumer Price Index and Inflation 20
Summary 22
Chapter 2 The Two Tier Market Thesis 23
Global versus Domestic: Globally Exposed U.S. Equities 23
Domestically Exposed U.S. Equities: Small Cap 26
Structurally Underperforming Sectors 34
Why the Globally Exposed Stocks Are Outperforming 37
Dow Outperformance 45
Focus on the Dollar 49
Summary 52
xiii
xiv Contents
Chapter 3 Recent History/Market Projections 54
History in the Making 55
How Far, How Long? 55
The 1949 1950 Analogy Holds 59
The Analogy Holds Again, Foreshortened 61
Structural Bull Market Confirmations Usher in 1996 61
Dow 8000 65
The Dow and the Nikkei ... An Amazing Fit 65
Secular U.S. Bull Markets of the Twentieth Century 66
Summary 68
Part Two New Horizons for the
Twenty First Century
Chapter 4 Changing Demographics 71
Declining U.S. Demographics 72
Impact on Domestically Oriented Sectors 73
Aging U.S. Population 77
Rising Global Demographics 80
Impact on Globally Exposed Sectors 80
Demographics and the Two Tier Market Analysis 84
Summary 85
Chapter 5 Demographics and the
Stock Market 86
A Demographically Driven Savings/Investment Wave 86
Future Impact of the Savings/Investment Wave 90
Financial Assets as Commodities 92
Continuing Rise Fueled by Mounting Savings 93
Duration of the Financial Sector Uptrend 95
Summary 99
Chapter 6 The Long Wave Cycle:
A Brief Consideration 100
Background of Kondratieff 100
How Does the Long Wave Arise?/lmplications 102
Contents xv
Related to Other Macrotrends 103
Long Wave Compared to the DJIA 103
Are Demographics Driving the Long Wave? 105
Summary 107
Chapter 7 The New Technological Era:
Observations and Conceptual Thoughts 108
New Information Technology Is High Tech 109
New Tech Employs; Old Tech Unemploys 110
Information Technology Boosts Efficiency, Productivity,
and Profitability 112
Developing Nations Moving Directly
to New Tech 115
New Technology Pervades the
Retail Marketplace 11 7
Emergence of Smart Products 118
Summary 123
Chapter 8 Old Tech and New Tech:
Need for New Sectors 124
Old Tech Sectors Underperforming the
Stock Market 125
New Tech Replacing Old Tech 129
The Need for New Sectors 1 32
Telecommunications Sector: The Challenge of
Rapid Change 1 35
Summary 136
Chapter 9 Revisiting the Capital/
Consumer Ratio 137
Capital Goods Breakdown; Consumer
Goods Breakout 1 38
A Possible Trend Reversal in Leadership 140
Revision of S P Sectors 143
Summary 144
xvi Contents
Chapter 10 Looking for Inflation in All the
Wrong Places 145
A Fresh Look at the CRB 146
Today s New Raw Materials 147
The Agricultural Boom Is Global 150
Water: The New Commodity 155
Oil Component 162
Role of Chemicals 165
Summary 167
Chapter 11 New Agricultural Direction for
the United States 168
Global Food Demand Boosts U.S. Agriculture 168
Biotechnology and Related Technologies Raise
Farm Demand 1 70
De Urbanization Is Resettling Rural Land 171
Summary 172
Part Three Unscrambling the Puzzles
Chapter 12 Asking Questions 175
Reassessing Intermarket Relationships 1 75
Question Asking Process 1 76
Summary 180
Chapter 13 New Economic Perceptions 181
Measuring Productivity in the
Knowledge Economy 182
Technology Diffusion: Efficiencies Rise and
Costs Drop 183
Productivity and Intangible Goods:
Measuring the Immeasurable 184
Productivity Efficiencies Too Swift to Calculate 187
An Economy of Physics 188
Wage Gains Consistent with Increased Productivity 193
Unemployment: Low, Stable, and Non Inflationary 197
Contents xvii
Inflation as Measured by the CPI, PPI, and Gold 200
Absence of Inflation 202
Summary 205
Chapter 14 Stock Market Implications
and Expectations 206
Is the CRB/Bond Intermarket
Relationship De Linking? 207
Macroshift in Commodity Leadership 209
Stock Market Speculation: The Value of Growth 210
Margin Debt: No Longer a Purely Equity Indicator 211
Savings and Debt Trends 21 3
Stock Market Valuations 21 7
Mutual Funds/Stock Supply/Volatility 219
Thinning Markets: Perception versus Reality 221
Summary 224
Part Four Conclusion
Chapter 15 What Lies Ahead: Other
Emerging Forces at Work 227
Interest Rates 227
Inflation, Deflation . . . Shifting Seats? 229
Deflationary Growth—A Concept Never Envisioned 230
Inflation: Not Dead—Another Shift 231
Stocks 232
Investment Focus 235
Other Forces at Work: Competition 236
Other Forces at Work: Sovereignty 237
Summary 238
Notes 241
Index 247
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| id | DE-604.BV012138961 |
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| spelling | Yamada, Louise Verfasser aut Market magic riding the greatest bull market of the century Louise Yamada New York [u.a.] Wiley 1998 XVII, 252 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley investment series Geschichte 1900-2000 Geschichte 1993-1997 gnd rswk-swf Effectenhandel gtt Verenigde Staten gtt Geschichte Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wall Street -- History -- 20th century Stock exchanges -- United States -- History -- 20th century Stock exchanges -- History -- 20th century Economic history -- 1945- Bull markets -- United States -- History -- 20th century Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 gnd rswk-swf Börse (DE-588)4007502-3 gnd rswk-swf USA Wall Street (New York, N.Y.) History 20th century USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Börse (DE-588)4007502-3 s Geschichte 1993-1997 z DE-604 Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 s http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/wiley033/97045104.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/onix04/97045104.html Table of Contents HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008221980&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Yamada, Louise Market magic riding the greatest bull market of the century Effectenhandel gtt Verenigde Staten gtt Geschichte Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wall Street -- History -- 20th century Stock exchanges -- United States -- History -- 20th century Stock exchanges -- History -- 20th century Economic history -- 1945- Bull markets -- United States -- History -- 20th century Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 gnd Börse (DE-588)4007502-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4130931-5 (DE-588)4007502-3 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Market magic riding the greatest bull market of the century |
| title_auth | Market magic riding the greatest bull market of the century |
| title_exact_search | Market magic riding the greatest bull market of the century |
| title_full | Market magic riding the greatest bull market of the century Louise Yamada |
| title_fullStr | Market magic riding the greatest bull market of the century Louise Yamada |
| title_full_unstemmed | Market magic riding the greatest bull market of the century Louise Yamada |
| title_short | Market magic |
| title_sort | market magic riding the greatest bull market of the century |
| title_sub | riding the greatest bull market of the century |
| topic | Effectenhandel gtt Verenigde Staten gtt Geschichte Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wall Street -- History -- 20th century Stock exchanges -- United States -- History -- 20th century Stock exchanges -- History -- 20th century Economic history -- 1945- Bull markets -- United States -- History -- 20th century Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 gnd Börse (DE-588)4007502-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Effectenhandel Verenigde Staten Geschichte Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wall Street -- History -- 20th century Stock exchanges -- United States -- History -- 20th century Stock exchanges -- History -- 20th century Economic history -- 1945- Bull markets -- United States -- History -- 20th century Aktienmarkt Börse USA Wall Street (New York, N.Y.) History 20th century |
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