Perspectives on global change: the TARGETS approach
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
1997
|
| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XV, 463 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 0521621763 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL CHANGE THE TARGETS APPROACH EDITED BY JAN ROTMANS
AND BERT DE VRIES NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE
ENVIRONMENT (RIVM), THE NETHERLANDS CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS CONTENTS
FOREWORD XI PREFACE XIII 1 GLOBAL CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 1
JAN ROTMANS, MARJOLEIN B.A. VAN ASSELT, AND BERT JM. DE VRIES 1.1
INTRODUCTION 3 1.2 GLOBAL CHANGE 4 1.3 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 9 1.4
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 11 1.5 THIS BOOK 13 PART ONE THE TARGETS MODEL 2
CONCEPTS 15 JAN ROTMANS, BERT J.M. DE VRIES, AND MARJOLEIN B.A. VAN
ASSELT 2.1 INTRODUCTION 17 2.2 THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL AND THE BASIC
CONCEPTS 18 2.3 PRESSURE-STATE-IMPACT-RESPONSE (PSIR) 22 2.4 INTEGRATION
25 2.5 PRESENTATION 29 2.6 TRANSITIONS 30 3 THE TARGETS MODEL 33 JAN
ROTMANS, MARJOLEIN B.A. VAN ASSELT, BERT J.M. DE VRIES, ARTHUR H.W.
BEUSEN, MICHEL G.J. DEN ELZEN, HENKB.M. HILDERINK, ARJEN Y. HOEKSTRA,
MARCO A. JANSSEN, HEKO W. KOSTER, LOUIS W. NIESSEN, AND BART J.
STRENGERS 3.1 INTRODUCTION 35 3.2 INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING 35 3.3
AGGREGATION, CALIBRATION AND UNCERTAINTY 39 3.4 DESCRIPTION OF THE
TARGETS 1.0 SUBMODELS 45 3.5 SUBMODEL LINKAGES IN THE TARGETS 1.0 MODEL
51 3.6 FUTURE WORK 53 4 THE POPULATION AND HEALTH SUBMODEL 55 LOUIS W.
NIESSEN, ANDHENK B.M. HILDERINK 4.1 INTRODUCTION 57 4.2 HEALTH
TRANSITIONS 58 4.3 MODELLING POPULATION AND HEALTH 62 4.4 MODEL
DESCRIPTION 65 4.5 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION 76 4.6 CONCLUSIONS 78
CONTENTS 5 THE ENERGY SUBMODEL: TIME 83 BERT J.M. DE VRIES, AND MARCO A.
JANSSEN 5.1 INTRODUCTION 85 5.2 ENERGY ISSUES 87 5.3 POSITION WITHIN
TARGETS 89 5.4 THE ENERGY DEMAND MODULE 92 5.5 THE FUEL SUPPLY MODULES
95 5.6 THE ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION MODULE 100 5.7 CALIBRATION 102 5.8
CONCLUSIONS 106 6 THE WATER SUBMODEL: AQUA 107 ARJEN Y. HOEKSTRA 6.1
INTRODUCTION 109 6.2 WATER POLICY ISSUES 110 6.3 AN INTEGRATED APPROACH
TO WATER POLICY ISSUES 112 6.4 MODEL DESCRIPTION 114 6.5 CALIBRATION AND
VALIDATION 130 6.6 CONCLUSIONS 134 7 THE LAND AND FOOD SUBMODEL: TERRA
135 BART J. STRENGERS, MICHEL G.J. DEN ELZEN AND HEKO W. KOSTER 7.1
INTRODUCTION 137 7.2 MODEL DESCRIPTION 139 7.3 CALIBRATION 153 7.4
CONCLUSIONS 158 8 THE BIOGEOCHEMICAL SUBMODEL: CYCLES 159 MICHEL G.J.
DEN ELZEN, ARTHUR H.W. BEUSEN, JAN ROTMANS, AND HEKO W. KOSTER 8.-1
INTRODUCTION 161 8.2 THE GLOBAL CARBON AND NITROGEN CYCLES AND RELATED
FEEDBACKS 163 8.3 MODEL DESCRIPTION 168 8.4 CALIBRATION 179 8.5
CONCLUSIONS 184 9 INDICATORS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 187 JAN ROTMANS
9.1 INTRODUCTION 189 9.2 INDICATORS AND INDICES 190 9.3 LINKAGES BETWEEN
INDICATORS AND MODELS 193 9.4 A MODEL-BASED INDICATOR FRAMEWORK 194 9.5
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF TARGETS 1.0 196 9.6 LINKAGE WITH EXISTING
INDICATOR PROGRAMMES 202 CONTENTS 10 UNCERTAINTIES IN PERSPECTIVE 205
MARJOLEIN B.A. VAN ASSELT, AND JAN ROTMANS 10.1 INTRODUCTION 207 10.2
MODEL ROUTES 209 10.3 FRAMEWORK OF PERSPECTIVES 211 10.4 METHODOLOGY 219
PART TWO EXPLORING IMAGES OF THE FUTURE 11 TOWARDS INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT
OF GLOBAL CHANGE 223 JAN ROTMANS, BERT J.M. DE VRIES, MARJOLEIN B.A. VAN
ASSELT, ARTHUR H.W. BEUSEN, MICHEL G.J. DEN ELZEN, HENKB.M. HILDERINK,
ARJEN Y. HOEKSTRA, AND BART J. STRENGERS 11.1 INTRODUCTION 225 11.2
EXPERIMENTAL SET-UP AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS 226 11.3 ECONOMIC SCENARIOS
231 11.4 THE HIERARCHIST UTOPIA: A REFERENCE FUTURE 232 12 POPULATION
AND HEALTH IN PERSPECTIVE 239 HENK B.M. HILDERINK AND MARJOLEIN B.A. VAN
ASSELT 12.1 CONTROVERSIES RELATED TO POPULATION AND HEALTH 241 12.2
POPULATION AND HEALTH UNCERTAINTIES 242 12.3 PERSPECTIVES ON POPULATION
AND HEALTH 243 12.4 THREE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE 247 12.5 THE PLAUSIBILITY
OF THE PROJECTIONS 250 12.6 RISK ASSESSMENT 252 12.7 POPULATION, HEALTH
AND GLOBAL CHANGE 256 12.8 CONCLUSIONS 261 13 ENERGY SYSTEMS IN
TRANSITION 263 BERT J.M. DE VRIES, ARTHUR H.W. BEUSEN, AND MARCO A.
JANSSEN 13.1 INTRODUCTION 265 13.2 MAJOR CONTROVERSIES AND UNCERTAINTIES
266 13.3 PERSPECTIVES ON WORLD ENERGY 270 13.4 SIMULATION RESULTS FOR
THE THREE UTOPIAS 274 13.5 UNCERTAINTIES AND DYSTOPIAS: SOME MORE MODEL
EXPERIMENTS 284 13.6 CONCLUSIONS 289 CONTENTS 14 WATER IN CRISIS? 291
ARJEN Y. HOEKSTRA, ARTHUR H.W. BEUSEN, HENKB.M. HILDERINK, AND MARJOLEIN
B.A. VAN ASSELT 14.1 INTRODUCTION 293 14.2 QUESTIONS RELATED TO WATER
293 14.3 MAJOR CONTROVERSIES AND UNCERTAINTIES 295 14.4 PERSPECTIVES ON
WATER 300 14.5 WATER IN THE FUTURE: THREE UTOPIAS 304 14.6 POSSIBLE
WATER FUTURES: THE BROADER SCOPE 312 14.7 RISK ASSESSMENT 314 14.8 WATER
POLICY AND GLOBAL CHANGE 315 15 FOOD FOR THE FUTURE 319 BART J.
STRENGERS, MICHEL G.J. DEN ELZEN, HEKO W. KOSTER, HENK B.M. HILDERINK,
AND MARJOLEIN B.A. VAN ASSELT 15.1 INTRODUCTION 321 15.2 MAIN ISSUES AND
UNCERTAINTIES 322 15.3 PERSPECTIVES ON LAND AND FOOD 324 15.4 SIMULATION
RESULTS FOR THE THREE UTOPIAS 328 15.5 UNCERTAINTIES AND DYSTOPIAS: SOME
MORE MODEL EXPERIMENTS 337 15.6 RISK ASSESSMENT 341 15.7 CONCLUSIONS 343
16 HUMAN DISTURBANCE OF THE GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES 345 MICHEL GJ.
DEN ELZEN, ARTHUR H.W. BEUSEN, JAN ROTMANS, AND MARJOLEIN B.A. VAN
ASSELT 16.1 INTRODUCTION 347 16.2 CONTROVERSIES AND UNCERTAINTIES 348
16.3 PERSPECTIVES ON THE GLOBAL CARBON AND NITROGEN CYCLE AND CLIMATE
SYSTEM 353 16.4 THREE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE: UTOPIAS 357 16.5 RISK
ASSESSMENT: DYSTOPIAS 364 16.6 CONCLUSIONS 370 17 THE LARGER PICTURE:
UTOPIAN FUTURES 371 BERT J.M. DE VRIES, JAN ROTMANS, ARTHUR H.W. BEUSEN,
MICHEL G.J. DEN ELZEN, HENK B.M. HILDERINK, ARJEN Y. HOEKSTRA, AND BART
J. STRENGERS 17.1 INTRODUCTION 373 17.2 INCLUSION OF FEEDBACKS IN
INTEGRATED EXPERIMENTS 374 17.3 WISHFUL THINKING: THREE UTOPIAN FUTURES
376 17.4 ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE THREE UTOPIAS 379 17.5 TRANSITIONS IN
UTOPIAN FUTURES 384 17.6 INTO THE 22ND CENTURY: TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE
STATE? 391 17.7 CONCLUSIONS 393 CONTENTS 18 UNCERTAINTY AND RISK:
DYSTOPIAN FUTURES 395 BERT J.M. DE VRIES, JAN ROTMANS, HENKB.M.
HILDERINK, ARTHUR H.W. BEUSEN, MICHEL GJ. DEN ELZEN, ARJEN Y. HOEKSTRA,
AND BART J. STRENGERS 18.1 INTRODUCTION 397 18.2 DYSTOPIAN TENDENCIES
398 18.3 SYSTEMATIC EXPLORATION OF DYSTOPIAS 403 18.4 ADDITIONAL
EXPLORATIONS: POLICY TIMING AND OVERCONSUMPTION 408 18.5 UNCERTAINTY AND
RISK 413 18.6 CONCLUSIONS 415 19 GLOBAL CHANGE: FRESH INSIGHTS, NO
SIMPLE ANSWERS 417 BERT J.M. DE VRIES, JAN ROTMANS, ARTHUR H.W. BEUSEN,
MICHEL GJ. DEN ELZEN, HENKB.M. HILDERINK, ARJEN Y. HOEKSTRA, MARCO A.
JANSSEN, LOUIS W. NIESSEN, BARTJ. STRENGERS, AND MARJOLEIN B.A. VAN
ASSELT 19.1 INTRODUCTION 419 19.2 SYNTHESIS OF THE RESULTS 420 19.3
WORLD IN TRANSITION 428 19.4 EPILOGUE 431 REFERENCES 435 ACRONYMS, UNITS
AND CHEMICAL SYMBOLS 457 INDEX 460
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| spelling | Perspectives on global change the TARGETS approach ed. by Jan Rotmans ... 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 1997 XV, 463 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Changement global de l'environnement ram Duurzame ontwikkeling gtt Klimaatveranderingen gtt Menselijke invloed gtt Milieuverandering gtt Simulatiemodellen gtt Global environmental change Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 gnd rswk-swf Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 gnd rswk-swf Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 s DE-604 Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 s Rotmans, Jan Sonstige oth GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008131910&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Perspectives on global change the TARGETS approach Changement global de l'environnement ram Duurzame ontwikkeling gtt Klimaatveranderingen gtt Menselijke invloed gtt Milieuverandering gtt Simulatiemodellen gtt Global environmental change Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 gnd Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4039798-1 (DE-588)4304982-5 (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Perspectives on global change the TARGETS approach |
| title_auth | Perspectives on global change the TARGETS approach |
| title_exact_search | Perspectives on global change the TARGETS approach |
| title_full | Perspectives on global change the TARGETS approach ed. by Jan Rotmans ... |
| title_fullStr | Perspectives on global change the TARGETS approach ed. by Jan Rotmans ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Perspectives on global change the TARGETS approach ed. by Jan Rotmans ... |
| title_short | Perspectives on global change |
| title_sort | perspectives on global change the targets approach |
| title_sub | the TARGETS approach |
| topic | Changement global de l'environnement ram Duurzame ontwikkeling gtt Klimaatveranderingen gtt Menselijke invloed gtt Milieuverandering gtt Simulatiemodellen gtt Global environmental change Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 gnd Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Changement global de l'environnement Duurzame ontwikkeling Klimaatveranderingen Menselijke invloed Milieuverandering Simulatiemodellen Global environmental change Modell Umweltveränderung Klimaänderung Aufsatzsammlung |
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| work_keys_str_mv | AT rotmansjan perspectivesonglobalchangethetargetsapproach |