The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA):
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | German |
| Published: |
Berlin
Köster
1998
|
| Edition: | 1. Aufl. |
| Series: | Schriftenreihe Wirtschaftswissenschaften
15 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 246 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 3895742945 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) |c George Geshi David Lwabona |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | CONTENTS page
Acknowledgements i
Map of Africa Showing COMESA Member Countries ii
Table of Contents iii
List of Tables vii
List of Figures viii
List of Appendices ix
1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 The Need for Economic Integration among African Countries 1
1.2 Impetus for a Continental Approach to Integration 2
1.3 Problem Formulation 7
1.4 Statement of the Hypotheses 8
1.5 Objectives of the Study 9
1.6 Organisation of the Study 10
2 RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF COMESA
COUNTRIES AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF INTEGRATION 11
2.1 Recent Economic Performance of COMESA Countries 11
2.1.1 Economic Size 11
2.1.2 Production Structures and Performance 12
2.1.3 Export Performance 17
2.1.4 External Indebtedness, Aid and Structural Adjustment 18
2.2 COMESA s Integration Strategy 21
2.2.1 Objectives of the COMESA 21
2.2.2 Organs and Institutions 21
2.3 COMESA s Achievements and Setbacks to Date 22
2.3.1 Achievements 22
2.3.2 Setbacks and Threats 24
2.4 Welfare Effects of COMESA s Integration 27
2.4.1 Dynamic Effects of the COMESA Integration 28
2.4.2 Specialisation and Production According
to Comparative Advantage 32
2.4.3 Linkage of Industry with Agriculture 34
2.4.4 Potential for Trade Expansion 37
(Hi)
3 THE MONETARY HARMONISATION PROGRAMME
OF THE COMESA AND THE CURRENT MULTILATERAL
CLEARING AND PAYMENTS ARRANGEMENTS 39
3.1 The Monetary Harmonisation Programme 39
3.1.1 Impetus for the Programme 39
3.1.2 Objectives of the Monetary Harmonisation Programme 43
3.2 Implementation oftheMHP to date 45
3.2.1 Consolidating the Present mechanisms of Monetary Cooperation 45
3.2.2 Completion of a Study towards the
Establishment of a Payments Union 51
3.2.3 Use of Equilibrium Exchange Rates 51
3.2.4 Reduction of Central bank Credit to
Government and Money Supply 52
3.2.5 Reduction of Fiscal Deficits/Surpluses 53
3.3 Chances and Difficulties in the Future Implementation of the MHP 54
3.3.1 Establishment of Limited Currency Convertibility 54
3.4 The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas 55
3.4.1 The Traditional Approach 56
3.4.2 The Cost Benefit Approach 59
3.5 Clearing and Payments Arrangements and the Current Unit of Account 63
3.5.1 Evolution of the COMESA Unit of Account 63
3.5.2 Objectives of the Clearing and Payments Arrangements 65
3.5.3 Operations of the Clearing House 65
3.5.4 Deficiencies of the Clearing and Payments Arrangements 69
4 EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATES AND THEIR
IMPLICATIONS TO COMESA COUNTRIES 71
4.1 Equilibrium Exchange Rates as a
Precondition for an Exchange Rate Union 71
4.1.1 Convergence Towards Equilibrium Exchange Rates 71
4.1.2 Measuring the Equilibrium Exchange Rate 73
4.1.3 Factors Distorting the Attainment of Equilibrium Exchange Rates 79
4.1.4 Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the COMESA Context 82
4.2 Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in COMESA Countries 83
4.2.1 Chronology of Exchange Rate Regimes and Liberalisation 83
4.2.2 Determinants of Exchange Rates in the COMESA Countries 85
4.3 Flexible Exchange Rates and Exposure to Exchange Risk 88
4.3.1 Foreign Exchange Risk 88
4.4 Foundations of Portfolio Theory 8®
4.4.1 The Mean Variance Criterion £9
4.4.2 Uncertainty and Utility Theory 91
5 MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY (MPT) AND ITS
APPLICATION TO INTRA COMESA PAYMENTS 97
5.1 Portfolios Consisting of two Currencies:
the Home Currency and one Foreign Currency 97
5.1.1 Risk and Return of the two Currencies 99
5.1.2 Diversification of Foreign Exchange Risk 102
5.1.3 Covering of the Open Foreign Exchange Position 112
5.2 Portfolios Consisting of two Foreign Currencies 113
5.2.1 Characteristics of a Portfolio
Consisting of two Foreign Currencies 113
5.3 Portfolios Consisting of three Foreign Currencies 124
5.3.1 Geometric Analysis of Efficient Portfolios
with three Foreign (Invoicing) Currencies 125
5.4 Portfolios Consisting of many Foreign Currencies 129
6 DETERMINING THE RATIONAL UNIT
OF ACCOUNT (RUA) FOR THE COMESA 131
6.1 Appraisal of the Implementation of the MHP
Convergence Criteria by Member Countries 131
6.1.1 Selection of the Currencies to be
included in the Optimisation Model 134
6.2 Inputs to the Model 136
6.2.1 Unadjusted Rates of Return and
Risk of the Selected Currencies 137
6.2.2 Adjustment of the Returns for Seigniorage Losses 140
6.3 The Optimisation Model 144
6.3.1 The Need for Further Model Specification 146
6.3.2 Utility Functions in MPT 147
6.3.3 The Augmented Optimisation Model 147
6.4 Selection of the Optimal Portfolio 149
6.4.1 Additional Constraints to the Optimisation Model 151
6.4.2 Lower Bounds using the Additional Constraints 155
6.5 Selection of Optimal Portfolios 157
6.6 Selection of the Criteria for Basing the Composition of the RUA 157
6.6.1 Sensitivity Analysis of Scenario 4 159
6.7 Determining the Value of the RUA 160
6.7.1 Flexibility in the Valuation of the RUA 161
M
7 TOWARDS OPERATIONALISING THE
RATIONAL UNIT OF ACCOUNT 165
7.1 Basic Properties of the RUA 165
7.1.1 Valuation of the RUA 165
7.1.2 Internal and External Stability of the Value of the RUA 167
7.2 Reciprocity for Improving Economic Performance 169
7.2.1 Policy Emulation Stimulus 169
7.2.2 Stimulus for Complementary Trade Expansion 170
7.2.3 Stimulus for Expanded Intra Regional Payments 174
7.3 Rules for Realigning the Composition of the RUA 176
7.3.1 Number of Component Currencies 177
7.3.2 Revision Period 178
7.3.3 Entry and Exit of Component Currencies 178
7.3.4 Value of the RUA upon Realignment 179
7.4 Issuance of the RUA and Distribution of Seigniorage 180
7.4.1 Issuance 180
7.4.2 Distribution of Seigniorage 182
7.5 Mechanism of Circulation of the RUA 182
7.5.1 Effecting Intra Regional Trade and Payments 182
7.5.2 Control of Money Creation by Commercial Banks 183
7.5.3 Enhancing the Role of the Clearing House I84
7.5.4 The RUA Interest Rate 185
8 CONCLUSION 187
Appendices 193
Selected References 237
List of Tables Page
2.1 Summary of intra COMESA Potential for Trade Expansion: 1988 1992 38
3.1 Implementation oftheOGIL Requirement by the end of 1996 46
3.2 Member Countries Trade Transactions Channelled
through the Clearing House: 1984 1995 48
3.3 Acceptance of Article VIII of the IMF (Section 2,3,and 4) 48
3.4 Exchange Rate Arrangements of COMESA Countries as at 31st March, 1997 52
3.5 SDR Valuation Basket Percentage Weight at Inception 64
5.1 Invoicing Alternatives and FERE in Intra COMESA Trade 98
5.2 Computation of the different Statistics from the Example 104
5.3 Validation of Portfolio Formulations 105
5.4 Effects of the Appreciation or Depreciation of the Currency
Used to Invoice Exports To the Exporter and Importer 112
5.5 Simulation Results of varying the Coefficient of Correlation 121
5.6 Portfolio Variance and Proportion of Invoicing: 3 Foreign Currencies 125
6.1 Summary of the Implementation of the MHP Convergence
Criteria by COMESA Countries: 1990 1997 132
6.2 Unadjusted Expected Return and
Standard Deviation of the Five Currencies 139
6.3 Adjusted Expected Return and
Standard Deviation of the Five Currencies 143
6.4 Correlation Matrix of the Five Currencies 143
6.5 Variance Covariance Matrix of the Five Currencies 144
6.6 Testing for Normality of Distribution of the Currencies 150
6.7 Additional Constraints and their Initial Distribution 153
6.8 Regression Analysis of the Additional variables 154
6.9 Weighting of the Additional Constraints 156
6.10 Summary of the 7 Scenarios and their Characteristics 157
6.11 Parameters of the Optimal Portfolios from each Scenario 158
6.12 Bilateral Exchange Rates and the value of the RUA on 12 1 August, 1997 162
7.1 Comparison of the Coefficient of Determination of the Exchange Rates of
the COMESA Currencies and their Averages to Exchange Rates against
the US Dollar, the SDR and the Implicit RUA: October 1992 April, 1997 175
7.2 Comparison of national and RUA Implicit Interest Rates
with Unchanged Spot Exchange Rates 186
fviii
List of Figures Page
1.1 The Planned Evolution of the PTA 6
2.1 COMESA s Sectoral Contribution to EealGNP (1970 1995) 16
2.2 COMESA s Average Annual Growth Rates of Various Indicators 16
2.3 Comparison of COMESA s GDP with that of Africa: 1970 1995 17
2.4 Terms of Trade for Africa: 1970 1995 (Index: 1985=100) 19
3.1 Schedule of Implementation of the COMESA MHP 44
4.1 Preference Space for Wealth Maximising Behaviour
By Risk Averse Importers, Exporters and Central Banks 94
5.1 Relationship between Portfolio Foreign Exchange Gains and
the Proportion of Exports Invoiced in the Foreign Currency 107
5.2 Relationship between Portfolio s Expected
Foreign Exchange Return and Risk 108
5.3 Relationship between Foreign Exchange Losses Incurred by the Importer
and the Proportion of Imports Invoiced in the Foreign Currency 109
5.4a Exporter s and Importer s Foreign Exchange Positions:
Appreciation of the Foreign (Invoicing) Currency 110
5.4b Exporter s and Importer s Foreign Exchange Positions:
Depreciation of the Foreign (Invoicing) Currency 11°
5.5 Relationship between Covariance and Coefficient of Correlation 117
5.6 Risk and Return Trade off with two Foreign Currencies H8
5.7 The Relationship between Portfolio Risk
and the Coefficient of Correlation 119
5.8 Diminishing Returns to Risk Taking: with inefficient M), H
5.9 Diminishing Returns to Risk Taking: with efficient w, 121
5.10 Relationship between the MVP Properties
and the Coefficient of Correlation 123
5.11 A Geometrical Universe with 3 Foreign (Invoicing) Currencies 126
5.12 Iso Mean Lines with Three Invoicing Currencies 12
5.13 Graphical Representation of Iso Variance Curves 128
5.14 Depiction of the Efficient Set of Portfolios with 3 Foreign Currencies 129
6.1 Hypothetical Utility Functions with a variable Risk Aversion Constant I48
List of Appendices
Page
1 Major Natural Resources and Materials of COMESA Countries 193
2 Population, Location and Geographical
Characteristics of COMESA Countries 199
3a Value Added in Agriculture as a Proportion of GNP
in the COMESA Countries: (Selected Years): 1970 1995 200
3b Value Added in Services as a Proportion of GNP
in the COMESA Countries: (Selected Years): 1970 1995 201
3c Value Added in Non Manufacturing Industry as a Proportion of
GNP in the COMESA Countries: (Selected Years): 1970 1995 202
3d Value Added in Manufacturing Industry as a Proportion of GNP
in the COMESA Countries: (Selected Years): 1970 1995 203
4 Real GNP of COMESA Countries (Selected Years): 1970 1995
(At Constant Market Price, Millions of 1985 US Dollars) 204
5 Export Performance of COMESA Countries (Selected Years): 1970 1995 205
6 Total Debt of COMESA Countries (Selected Years): 1970 1995
(Millions of US Dollars) 206
7 Trend of Debt, Foreign Aid and Other Economic Indicators of
COMESA Countries as a Group (Selected Years): 1970 1995 207
8 IMF Adjustment Programme Among COMESA Countries
(As at 30th November, 1996). (Millions of SDR) 208
9 Linkage Analysis of Basic Materials Necessary for
Industrial Production in the COMESA Countries 209
10 Initial Specialisation of Production by individual COMESA Countries 217
11 Criteria for Individual COMESA Countries
Macro Economic Convergence 219
12a Commercial Banks in the COMESA and the
Countries in which they Operate: Mid 1996 220
12b Financial Institutions in the COMESA and the
Countries in which they are Located: Mid 1996 224
13 Summary of Individual Countries Performance Towards the
Attainment of Convergence Criteria for Monetary Harmonisation 226
14 Augmented Convergence Criteria for Monetary
Harmonisation with other Economic Variables 227
15 Questionnaire and Interview Results Economic Variable Considered
to be the most important in basing the Weights of the RUA 228
16 Sensitivity Analysis of Scenario 4:
Optimal Portfolio Based on Foreign Reserves 229
17 Graphical Comparison of the Exchange Rate Movements of the Five
COMESA Currencies against the US Dollar, the SDR and
the Implicit the RUA: October, 1992 April, 1997 230
|
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| series | Schriftenreihe Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| series2 | Schriftenreihe Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| spelling | Lwabona, George Geshi David Verfasser aut The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) George Geshi David Lwabona 1. Aufl. Berlin Köster 1998 X, 246 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Schriftenreihe Wirtschaftswissenschaften 15 Zugl.: Hamburg, Hochsch. für Wirtschaft und Politik, Diss., 1998 Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (DE-588)10019162-9 gnd rswk-swf Economische integratie gtt Economische situatie gtt Wirtschaft Foreign exchange rates Africa, Eastern Foreign exchange rates Africa, Southern Monetary policy Africa, Eastern Monetary policy Africa, Southern Währungspolitik (DE-588)4064152-1 gnd rswk-swf Leitwährung (DE-588)4126090-9 gnd rswk-swf Africa, Eastern Commerce Africa, Eastern Economic integration Africa, Southern Commerce Africa, Southern Economic integration (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (DE-588)10019162-9 b Leitwährung (DE-588)4126090-9 s Währungspolitik (DE-588)4064152-1 s DE-604 Schriftenreihe Wirtschaftswissenschaften 15 (DE-604)BV008901020 15 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008015984&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Lwabona, George Geshi David The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Schriftenreihe Wirtschaftswissenschaften Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (DE-588)10019162-9 gnd Economische integratie gtt Economische situatie gtt Wirtschaft Foreign exchange rates Africa, Eastern Foreign exchange rates Africa, Southern Monetary policy Africa, Eastern Monetary policy Africa, Southern Währungspolitik (DE-588)4064152-1 gnd Leitwährung (DE-588)4126090-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)10019162-9 (DE-588)4064152-1 (DE-588)4126090-9 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) |
| title_auth | The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) |
| title_exact_search | The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) |
| title_full | The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) George Geshi David Lwabona |
| title_fullStr | The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) George Geshi David Lwabona |
| title_full_unstemmed | The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) George Geshi David Lwabona |
| title_short | The determination of a rational unit of account for the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) |
| title_sort | the determination of a rational unit of account for the common market of eastern and southern africa comesa |
| topic | Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (DE-588)10019162-9 gnd Economische integratie gtt Economische situatie gtt Wirtschaft Foreign exchange rates Africa, Eastern Foreign exchange rates Africa, Southern Monetary policy Africa, Eastern Monetary policy Africa, Southern Währungspolitik (DE-588)4064152-1 gnd Leitwährung (DE-588)4126090-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Economische integratie Economische situatie Wirtschaft Foreign exchange rates Africa, Eastern Foreign exchange rates Africa, Southern Monetary policy Africa, Eastern Monetary policy Africa, Southern Währungspolitik Leitwährung Africa, Eastern Commerce Africa, Eastern Economic integration Africa, Southern Commerce Africa, Southern Economic integration Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008015984&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV008901020 |
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